GDT: Free agency madness, brought to you by the letter G - PART 2

[GCK]

Doubt we get a top 10 pick in '23 or '24 for DeBrincat.

I think we can get better value without a high pick included. I’m not overly high on the 2022 draft.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

At worst we are qualifying debrincat.

 

[GCK]

Pray tell, why would we have acquired Debrincat if we weren't going to aggressively try to re sign him? It makes no sense at all to make that trade and then turn around and re trade him in a year.

It makes lots of sense if they weren’t loving the players who would be available at 7. Of course they will attempt to sign Debrincat but I doubt they go higher than Tkachuk’s AAV.

At worst we are qualifying debrincat.

Of course.

 

[HSF]

so odd how we didnt just get Marino. Must be a salary thing. I don't believe the he had too much term. That is exactly what you want esp if Chychrun is going to cost an arm and a leg

 

[GCK]

so odd how we didnt just get Marino. Must be a salary thing. I don't believe the he had too much term. That is exactly what you want esp if Chychrun is going to cost an arm and a leg

They certainly seem fixated on getting a D who can provide some offence, Weeger, Klingberg and Chychrun. Marino probably didn’t fit the type of D they wanted.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

They certainly seem fixated on getting a D who can provide some offence, Weeger, Klingberg and Chychrun. Marino probably didn’t fit the type of D they wanted.

Makes me wonder if they trying to get someone well rounded to perhaps replace Chabot in 4 years time or something.

 

[HSF]

Makes me wonder if they trying to get someone well rounded to perhaps replace Chabot in 4 years time or something.

probably not. More has to do with we have no option other than Chabot

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

probably not. More has to do with we have no option other than Chabot

For now, absolutely. Two birds with one stone type thinking, though.

If Chychrun and Sanderson play to his hype, he'll get 8+ mill salary and younger version of Chabot we just got. If Chych doesn't, then he's re-signed for reasonable deal.

 

[Micklebot]

They certainly seem fixated on getting a D who can provide some offence, Weeger, Klingberg and Chychrun. Marino probably didn’t fit the type of D they wanted.

Yeah, apparently we were interested in Burns too,

Seems odd that we're after offence from the D moreso than just a reliable top 4 presence, I think most of us assumed we would focus on strong defensive play..

 

[Micklebot]

Wally seems to be implying the high end prospect Arz wants for Chychrun might be Sogaard on WAM, just listening to it now...

 

[UglyPuckling]

Just responding to multiple posts.

Cap issues: Debrincat won’t be here next season at 9M. He either resigns at 8M or he is moved. Stu may get a 2 year bridge which will save money until cap goes up to about 90M. Stu would then be in line for a bigger long term deal, think 2 x 6M then 8 x 10M.

Chychrun: He isn’t coming without Zaitsev going so don’t worry about having both.

Greig: He will replace a top 9 player next year if not sooner. Obvious options are Formenton, Debrincat or possible even Pinto.

4th line: Next year the 4th line will not have a single player over 1M IMO.

Performance bonuses: After this year the only relatively significant PB is Sanderson who maxes out at 850K.

OK. So let's revise and look at the numbers again. I will incorporate your suggestions, as well as Mickebot's suggestions.

My best guess is Debrincat is not signing at let's say $8.0 m & it will probably be more like $9.0 m, but whatever. I'll put Debrincat in at $8.0 m. I kept Stutzle at $8.25 m (8 year term) because that's a lot better long term than the $10 m you are suggesting. I am focused on the 2023-24 season, but most of the contracts will also follow through to future years. All of the 4th line players are paid under $1 m btw. Sogaard hasn't a lot of NHL games under his belt, so that's a risk. But, this is a bare bones budget that utilizes a lot of ELC players including on defense (hence no Chychrun). I have bolded the changes to make it easier to follow.

Tkachuk 8.205
Norris 7.950
Batherson 4.975
Total Line 1: $21.13 m

Debrincat 8.0 (resigned & estimate)
Stutzle 8.25 (signs new max term contract)
Giroux 6.5
Total Line 2: $22.75 m

Joesph 2.95
Pinto 1.65 (resigned)
Formenton 2.0 (resigned to short term contract)
Total Line 3: $6.6 m

Kelly .763
Gambrell/replacement .950
XXX .800
Total Line 4 $2.513 m

Chabot 8.0
Zub 4.5 (new contract)
1st pair total $12.5 m

Sanderson .925
JBD .925
2nd pair total $1.850

Thomson .863
Brannstrom 1.4 (signed to short term contract)
3rd pair total: $2.263 m

Forsberg 2.75
Sogaard .925
Goalie total: $3.674 m

Murray retained 1.562
Buyout:
B Ryan 1.833
C. White .875
MDZ .750
Total retained/buyouts $5.02 m

Forward #13 .800
Defender #7 .800

TOTAL $78.3 M

NOTES:
22 player roster
Signing bonuses NOT included
We meet the NHL cap ceiling, but we are over our self-imposed $6 - 8 million below the NHL maximum. Max cap in 2023-24 $84.5 m per CBA/Bettman.
We have Sogaard in nets as the backup and have 5 ELCs on the roster

 

[Hun]

Pinto 1.65 (resigned)

lol.
absolutely unrealistic

 

[Deku]

Wally seems to be implying the high end prospect Arz wants for Chychrun might be Sogaard on WAM, just listening to it now...

I like that from a trade value standpoint but don't like it from an organizational depth standpoint, after losing Gus and Daccord he is next up to have a shot at being our starting goalie

 

[UglyPuckling]

lol.
absolutely unrealistic

In 2023-24? I signed him at that number to increase his lower cost ELC years.

How big of a difference will it make if he's paid a little less? Pick a number. Will we still be over our self imposed cap - looks like it.

Do you read entire post & understand the objective? BIG PICTURE focus. Your seeing the trees versus the forest perhaps.

 

[Hun]

In 2023-24? I signed him at that number to increase his lower cost ELC years.

How big of a difference will it make if he's paid a little less? Pick a number. Will we still be over our self imposed cap - looks like it.

Do you read entire post & understand the objective? BIG PICTURE focus. Your seeing the trees versus the forest perhaps.

His bridge will cost 4-5M. I'm not talking about a long-term contract, which would be more reasonable.

 

[Micklebot]

I like that from a trade value standpoint but don't like it from an organizational depth standpoint, after losing Gus and Daccord he is next up to have a shot at being our starting goalie

Yeah, that seemed to be their take too, but they felt you could go out and get a journey man goalie (like Forsberg and Nilsson) so it's a move you make.

 

[Micklebot]

We meet the cap ceiling, but are over a self-imposed cap of $6 - 8 million below the ceiling.

I think making the playoffs will factor in to future self imposed caps, as will increased ticket sales if we are a stronger team. That said, our self imposed cap in on real dollars, and we have some back loaded contracts that will be transitioning towards the more expensive years soon.

 

[UglyPuckling]

His bridge will cost 4-5M. I'm not talking about a long-term contract, which would be more reasonable.

Ah, OK. This sentence was important: " I am focused on the 2023-24 season, but most of the contracts will also follow through to future years."

I am trying to come up with a bare bones budget to determine what the numbers look like when you add them all up.

If numbers turn out to be higher than the ones I presented, that would not be surprising to me. Its hard to know what everyone thinks, but I see a lot of focus on adding to the roster. It seems like there should be as much focus on the subtractions, especially if we operate on a budget that is $6 - 8 million below the cap limit.

It should be pretty easy to see the risks in doing this. There's a lot of ELCs in this lineup, including 3 on defense and one in net.

 

[UglyPuckling]

I think making the playoffs will factor in to future self imposed caps, as will increased ticket sales if we are a stronger team. That said, our self imposed cap in on real dollars, and we have some back loaded contracts that will be transitioning towards the more expensive years soon.

Ya, sure I agree. Things can change in the future. The organization might decide to increase the self-imposed limit a bit. None of us really know of course.

I just wanted to present the numbers. I presented the earlier version which had us well over a self-imposed limit and not even under the NHL cap ceiling. The 2nd recent post presented an alternate bare bones spending where a lot of ELCs were plugged in to replace vets (whose contracts would have expired).

Numbers are the numbers. I just wanted to see where they led. And when I take a hard look at the numbers, It seems like there should be as much focus on the subtractions as there is on additions. That's not as much fun obviously, but its real.

 

[Big Muddy]

Pray tell, why would we have acquired Debrincat if we weren't going to aggressively try to re sign him? It makes no sense at all to make that trade and then turn around and re trade him in a year.

I think HF Sens fans want to resign/extend Debrincat. That isn't the issue I'd think.

I think the feedback has been more on our budget and fitting everything in. Seems to be a little more focus (posts) on that now.

 

[Sens Vader]

I don’t see any weaknesses on the roster if we acquire Chychrun

After that it’s basically ride the core and see where it takes us. Even after a trade we have a enough prospect depth to keep filling out the bottom of the lineup for a few seasons

 

[OUT HOUSE]

I'll save Dorion the time and step in as a top 4 RD in NHL23 Be A Pro mode.

 

[SpezDispenser]

I think HF Sens fans want to resign/extend Debrincat. That isn't the issue I'd think.

I think the feedback has been more on our budget and fitting everything in. Seems to be a little more focus (posts) on that now.

I think there'll be issues with the cap, but at the same time, when the chips are down, you can assess your roster and make room at that point. We're fairly well positioned IMO.

 

[NB613]

I don’t see any weaknesses on the roster if we acquire Chychrun

After that it’s basically ride the core and see where it takes us. Even after a trade we have a enough prospect depth to keep filling out the bottom of the lineup for a few seasons

So true! What an incredible “mind-shift” this summer has been.

We can “run it back” better than the Leafs lol

 

[Qward]

I'll save Dorion the time and step in as a top 4 RD in NHL23 Be A Pro mode.

No, you set yourself as an offensive minded. We already have Chabot, Brannstrom, Sanderson for that.