GDT: Free agency madness, brought to you by the letter G - PART 2

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Ya we were bent over a barrel with Tkachuk and had to either pay up or bridge him and risk watching him maneuver his way to a bigger pay day like Matthew did.

 

[Answer]

Ya we were bent over a barrel with Tkachuk and had to either pay up or bridge him and risk watching him maneuver his way to a bigger pay day like Matthew did.

Matthew's contract looks pretty good considering his production. Only being paid just over a million dollar than his younger brother

 

[Sweatred]

Matthew's contract looks pretty good considering his production. Only being paid just over a million dollar than his younger brother

Not in actual after tax dollars … what’s Matthew’s salary converted to Ontario Tire Money?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Matthew's contract looks pretty good considering his production. Only being paid just over a million dollar than his younger brother

It's about market value if last year doesn't end up being an outlier, but it's mostly bonuses and in a low tax state which would present issues matching and I'm more meaning the direction he took to get there. He dictated the whole thing and got his way at every step because the leverage existed for him just like it would have for Brady. We went long term with Brady right away, overpaid and put it to bed. Calgary got a couple years of anxiety and ultimately burned. I'd be willing to bet that for a guy like Matthew, he would have 100% expected extra concessions from Calgary for the tax differences and wouldn't have budged on bonus structure. Seems like that's probably a factor in Brady's deal too.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

With Tkachuk and Norris being paid 8million, we don't have another 8 million to pay DeBrincat, especially when Stutzle's contract coming up and potentially Sanderson's, after that.

Our focus should be resigning Zub, spending big money on a top defenseman, or trade for Chychrun

We have 4.5 coming off the books this year. 4.5 the year after. 6.5 the year after. And I bet neither of these goalies stays. Zub also like going. We have money left.

 

[Micklebot]

Chychrun should only be added if we also have the money in the budget to sign Zub.

Otherwise our defense would only be fixed for a single season.

What if either of JBD or Thomson show they are ready for a role on the 2nd pair? Or if Brannstrom breaks out? Are we better off with just Zub or just Chychrun? or do you think we should find a worse defender than Chychrun so it won't cost so much? Chychrun has 3 years left, what if it's not about budget, and they foresee him wanting to test the market?

Lots of reasons it might make sense to trade for Chychun, even if it means we move on from Zub. Ideally we can have both, but I don't think you pass on Chychrun so that you have a better chance of keeping Zub.

 

[Loach]

We went from under the cap floor in real dollars to how do we deal with cap in avv dollars in one month. Wtf! Lol

 

[DueDiligence]

Zub at 5 m >> Norris at 8m especially since we have Pinto and Greig close to ready and Stutzle the #1 C.

Norris contract is just bad.

Imagine DeBrincat goes off with Stutzle this season and plays himself out of our budget

I definitely would have preferred bridging Norris versus throwing a massive long-term deal at him based off of a single year of high-end production in which he had an unsustainably high shooting percentage.

But I think Sens management projects Greig at left wing over center going forward. Don't think he'll be blocked by Stutzle, Norris and Pinto from playing in the top 9.

You guys need to give your heads a shake.
First off Zub is a good Dman but you make him sound like the reincarnation of Bobby Orr. His performance this year was the same as last year. He's reliable but he is not a top 2 guy on a good team. Second, Norris is the best goal scorer on the team and he's no one year wonder. He was the leading scorer in his only year in the AHL. He was on a 25 goal pace as a rookie. He had 35 goals in 66 games last year. Third, Zub is 26 and will turn 27 before the season starts. Norris just turned 23 in May. Zub is probably not going to get appreciably better and Norris hasn't reached his peak.

Bottom line is I'd love to keep both but no way you dump Norris to keep Zub.

 

[Hale The Villain]

What if either of JBD or Thomson show they are ready for a role on the 2nd pair? Or if Brannstrom breaks out? Are we better off with just Zub or just Chychrun? or do you think we should find a worse defender than Chychrun so it won't cost so much? Chychrun has 3 years left, what if it's not about budget, and they foresee him wanting to test the market?

Lots of reasons it might make sense to trade for Chychun, even if it means we move on from Zub. Ideally we can have both, but I don't think you pass on Chychrun so that you have a better chance of keeping Zub.

Those are not justifiable reasons to trade Greig + 1st + more for Chychrun to let Zub walk because we have no more money to re-sign him.

Hamonic is walking in a year. Holden may be gone too and I suspect that Zaitsev isn't going to be a Senator for much longer. There will be plenty of spots available for Brannstrom, JBD and Thomson.

If Zub is hesitant to re-sign you overpay him to stay in Ottawa. If he is adamant about leaving and won't even take an overpayment, then trading for a top 4 D like Chychrun starts to make sense. In such a case we should trade Zub for assets instead of renting him for the final year of his contract.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Zub will be a UFA, if he wants max money, which he is entitled to seek, he is leaving. We'll offer good money but he'll be able to get more from someone else.

Point is, we don't have a lot of control over Zub so it is best to have contingencies. The choice isn't "a new top 4 or Zub". We have JBD and Thomson and while they aren't likely to be as good as Zub is, if Sanderon is as good as we think he can be, maybe we don't need to give Zub the big dollars.

Welcome to pro sports.

 

[Micklebot]

Those are not justifiable reasons to trade Greig + 1st + more for Chychrun to let Zub walk because we have no more money to re-sign him.

Hamonic is walking in a year. Holden may be gone too and I suspect that Zaitsev isn't going to be a Senator for much longer. There will be plenty of spots available for Brannstrom, JBD and Thomson.

If Zub is hesitant to re-sign you overpay him to stay in Ottawa. If he is adamant about leaving and won't even take an overpayment, then trading for a top 4 D like Chychrun starts to make sense. In such a case we should trade Zub for assets instead of renting him for the final year of his contract.

Chychrun is an upgrade on every D not named Chabot on this team. You trade a fair package for him if you want to win.

If you can get similar performance out of ELC or bridge deals, then it absolutely makes sense to move on from Zub. If Thomson or JBD are ready on time, you can entertain trading Zub off at the deadline. You love to talk about cap management, well here's an other opportunity for you. go out and get a legit top end Dman, then trade off your mid pair Dman off and recoup some of the assets when internal options are ready to replace him.

Overpaying for Zub is the definition of mismanaging the cap. He's good, but he's not a core piece you overpay for.

Use the funds we have efficiently is all I'm saying, if Zub prices himself out of efficient use of cap space, it's time to move on. I like him, but he's getting seriously overrated. We don't need to have him specifically, we just need to make sure we have 4 top 4 quality D. Who they are is less important than how much they cost, and with Chabot and Sanderson, if we add Chychrun we've already got the best top 3 D in a long time. any of Brannstrom, JBD or Thomson prove themselves a capable top 4 D and it only gets better.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Chychrun is an upgrade on every D not named Chabot on this team. You trade a fair package for him if you want to win.

If you can get similar performance out of ELC or bridge deals, then it absolutely makes sense to move on from Zub. If Thomson or JBD are ready on time, you can entertain trading Zub off at the deadline. You love to talk about cap management, well here's an other opportunity for you. go out and get a legit top end Dman, then trade off your mid pair Dman off and recoup some of the assets when internal options are ready to replace him.

Overpaying for Zub is the definition of mismanaging the cap. He's good, but he's not a core piece you overpay for.

Use the funds we have efficiently is all I'm saying, if Zub prices himself out of efficient use of cap space, it's time to move on. I like him, but he's getting seriously overrated. We don't need to have him specifically, we just need to make sure we have 4 top 4 quality D. Who they are is less important than how much they cost, and with Chabot and Sanderson, if we add Chychrun we've already got the best top 3 D in a long time. any of Brannstrom, JBD or Thomson prove themselves a capable top 4 D and it only gets better.

How much better? Worth giving up Greig + 1st + more to upgrade? Almost certainly not.

And if we're talking about cap management, Chychrun earns an average salary of 5.2M over the next 3 years. How much more (if any) would Zub make on his next contract? There's no cap savings to manage.

Again, Hamonic and Holden are UFAs after next season. Zaitsev shouldn't see NHL ice unless significant injuries occur. We need JBD and Thomson to replace them in a year (or less if the older D take a step back), not Zub. They project as bottom pairing D, so expecting them to be able to replace a clear top 4 D in Zub is unrealistic.

We let Zub walk without replacing him with a top 4 D via trade and is likely we're back to only have 2 top 4 D in the lineup, just this time it's Chabot and Sanderson instead of Chabot and Zub. We'd be taking a major step back.

 

[Micklebot]

How much better? Worth giving up Greig + 1st + more to upgrade? Almost certainly not.

And if we're talking about cap management, Chychrun earns an average salary of 5.2M over the next 3 years. How much more (if any) would Zub make on his next contract? There's no cap savings to manage.

Again, Hamonic and Holden are UFAs after next season. Zaitsev shouldn't see NHL ice unless significant injuries occur. We need JBD and Thomson to replace them in a year (or less if the older D take a step back), not Zub. They project as bottom pairing D, so expecting them to be able to replace a clear top 4 D in Zub is unrealistic.

We let Zub walk without replacing him with a top 4 D via trade and is likely we're back to only have 2 top 4 D in the lineup, just this time it's Chabot and Sanderson instead of Chabot and Zub. We'd be taking a major step back.

He's quite a bit better than Zub, how much it will cost to acquire him is an unknown at this point, but you got to pay to get a player of that quality. Chychrun is a #1 quality Dman, Zub is a 2nd pair guy. They just aren't on the same level.

The point was if JBD Thomson or Brannstrom are ready to play top 4 we can afford to move on from Zub, we can recoup assets trading him at the deadline to lessen the cost of acquiring Chychrun, so it becomes a cost to upgrade Zub.

Replacing Hamonic and Holden becomes replacing bottom pair mins. That's easy enough to accomplish. If JBD or Thomson are capable playing in the top 4, great.

There is no reason we should overpay to keep Zub specifically, especially if guys like JBD and Thomson are top 4 ready. None. If we land Chychrun, it becomes even less important to keep zub, not more. There are only so many roster spots, we're in an enviable position where we don't have enough spots to play all the prospects in the system, so while I'm a big believer in Greig and have been since draft day, I see Chychrun as a more valuable player playing a more valuable position, and I don't see a lot of room for Greig to ever really crack our top 6 if things go as planed.

As a bonus, by acquiring Chychrun, we lessen Zub's negotiating leverage, meaning it's less likely he can hold us over the barrel.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Bruh I saw Confirmed Trade:Ari on the main board and my heart skipped a beat, lol.

 

[Hale The Villain]

He's quite a bit better than Zub, how much it will cost to acquire him is an unknown at this point, but you got to pay to get a player of that quality. Chychrun is a #1 quality Dman, Zub is a 2nd pair guy. They just aren't on the same level.

The point was if JBD Thomson or Brannstrom are ready to play top 4 we can afford to move on from Zub, we can recoup assets trading him at the deadline to lessen the cost of acquiring Chychrun, so it becomes a cost to upgrade Zub.

Replacing Hamonic and Holden becomes replacing bottom pair mins. That's easy enough to accomplish. If JBD or Thomson are capable playing in the top 4, great.

There is no reason we should overpay to keep Zub specifically, especially if guys like JBD and Thomson are top 4 ready. None. If we land Chychrun, it becomes even less important to keep zub, not more. There are only so many roster spots, we're in an enviable position where we don't have enough spots to play all the prospects in the system, so while I'm a big believer in Greig and have been since draft day, I see Chychrun as a more valuable player playing a more valuable position, and I don't see a lot of room for Greig to ever really crack our top 6 if things go as planed.

As a bonus, by acquiring Chychrun, we lessen Zub's negotiating leverage, meaning it's less likely he can hold us over the barrel.

I don't think we should cut costs on the blueline by letting Zub walk. If there's a place we should cut salary it's at forward.

If Stutzle and DeBrincat get around 9M each on long-term contracts, we'll be spending over 45M (over 50% of our cap space) on our top 6 forwards. I don't think that's ideal.

I've long been a proponent of adopting the Nashville approach and focus on maintaining an excellent defense and having high quality goaltending as the best way for a budget team to be successful.

I wouldn't mind adding Chychrun AND re-signing Zub, then trading DeBrincat for picks/prospects in the off-season instead of throwing him a massive contract.

 

[Relapsing]

Overpaying for Zub is the definition of mismanaging the cap. He's good, but he's not a core piece you overpay for.

Was thinking on this earlier.

There's no way acquiring Zub was ever part of the master plan. If summer of Dorion is the version of Dorion we always had, then I bet he charted where and when he expected his drafted players to land on the roster year to year over the course of 5+ years when the rebuild started.

Zub was a found asset we luckily snagged. He could never have been part of the plan.

Dorion charting this out also explains stuff like the Boucher pick (quote: someone I want going to war with me in the playoffs), because he knew he'd need that type of player for the window. Or picking up a player like debrincat this year. Or loading the goalie pipeline to trade 1 for an established one. Or cooking some good D prospects who've looked gold in their call up's. Or even landing giroux for all we know.

Covid rightly delayed things, but I'm sure he's laughing at how squeezed other GMs are right now because who could have predicted this?

Either dorion has been playing a version of NHL moneyball that focused on building a core of friends (ex: trade for norris, draft Brady. Or have Chabot and trade for Joseph) that play for each other... Or he's become the luckiest bastard I've ever heard of with pieces just falling into place.

All that is to say... Trade Zub for assets before you overpay him. Dorion has to abide by paying a highly talented core, and rotating guys on elc, rfa and league minimum contracts. It's the only way to make this work. Guys better than Zub will price themselves off the team if dorion is doing this right.

And that's just fine with me

 

[DueDiligence]

If Stutzle and DeBrincat get around 9M each on long-term contracts, we'll be spending over 45M (over 50% of our cap space) on our top 6 forwards. I don't think that's ideal.

If Stutzle and Debincat both get $9 million per year that means they've had great seasons. ( 80 plus points and 40 goals respectively) If the other 4 top 6 forwards play well then the Sens have probably had a really good season and the group is worth the $45 million. You fill in the bottom six for $12 million, the goalies for $5 million and that leaves the defense $20 million. In a couple of years when Sanderson can get his money the cap will have risen by $ 5 million or more the Sens will be able to fit him in easily.

 

[Relapsing]

I've long been a proponent of adopting the Nashville approach and focus on maintaining an excellent defense and having high quality goaltending as the best way for a budget team to be successful.

I'd take the Tampa model over Nashville.

Give the bag to a core of around 7 guys (for us maybe 5 forwards and 2 defensemen vs 4 forwards, 2 defensemen and 1 goalie), and rotate the rest as needed.

FW: Brady, norris, batherson, Jimmy and le chat

D:Chabot and eventually Sanderson, but we can afford a chychrun in the meantime

You can absolutely make that work on a budget.

How many cups has Nashville won again?

 

[GCK]

This is so much better than talking about how to tank !!!!

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

I can’t believe there is chatter about trading AD already. I haven’t been this excited for a new player since Stü.

Also, I second, so refreshing that our problem is now too many good players we have to figure out how to pay and keep!

 

[Hale The Villain]

I'd take the Tampa model over Nashville.

Give the bag to a core of around 7 guys (for us maybe 5 forwards and 2 defensemen vs 4 forwards, 2 defensemen and 1 goalie), and rotate the rest as needed.

FW: Brady, norris, batherson, Jimmy and le chat

D:Chabot and eventually Sanderson, but we can afford a chychrun in the meantime

You can absolutely make that work on a budget.

How many cups has Nashville won again?

If you think small market bad weather high tax Ottawa can replicate Tampa Bay, you're kidding yourself.

Nashville has made the playoffs 14/17 years since the lockout. They are absolutely a team worth copying.

 

[Hale The Villain]

If Stutzle and Debincat both get $9 million per year that means they've had great seasons. ( 80 plus points and 40 goals respectively) If the other 4 top 6 forwards play well then the Sens have probably had a really good season and the group is worth the $45 million. You fill in the bottom six for $12 million, the goalies for $5 million and that leaves the defense $20 million. In a couple of years when Sanderson can get his money the cap will have risen by $ 5 million or more the Sens will be able to fit him in easily.

Spending only 25M on defense and goaltending and expecting to be a contender isn't realistic.

We're already paying about 27M for our defense and goaltending, and that's with Sanderson on an ELC, Zub on a 2.5M deal and we're missing a top 4 D.

 

[Micklebot]

Spending only 25M on defense and goaltending and expecting to be a contender isn't realistic.

We're already paying about 27M for our defense and goaltending, and that's with Sanderson on an ELC, Zub on a 2.5M deal and we're missing a top 4 D.

If you look at cap hits for D in tiers, you get this:

1-32 spans: 11.5 mil to 6.5 mil
33-64: 6.5 to 4.6
65-96: 4.6 to 3.75
97-128: 3.25 to 2.45
129-160: 2.4 to .950
161-192: .950 to .925
193-224: .916 to .863

So, if we roughly split the diff for each to get an average group: 9, 5.5, 4.25, 2.85, 1.7, 0.94, 0.89 gets you to about 25 mil on D. Add 6.5 for goaltending and your over 30.

Now, if you have some team friendly deals, or guys on ELC, you can probably come in temporarily lower, but I don't think it's sustainable to be under 30 as a long term strategy.

 

[JD1]

Those are not justifiable reasons to trade Greig + 1st + more for Chychrun to let Zub walk because we have no more money to re-sign him.

Hamonic is walking in a year. Holden may be gone too and I suspect that Zaitsev isn't going to be a Senator for much longer. There will be plenty of spots available for Brannstrom, JBD and Thomson.

If Zub is hesitant to re-sign you overpay him to stay in Ottawa. If he is adamant about leaving and won't even take an overpayment, then trading for a top 4 D like Chychrun starts to make sense. In such a case we should trade Zub for assets instead of renting him for the final year of his contract.

Why would you think Zub is hesitant to sign in Ottawa let alone adamant about leaving

 

[JD1]

Has anyone considered that Chabot might end up being the cap casualty?

Sanderson drafted 5oa. Would it be surprising if he was more valuable than Chabot.

We get Chychtun this year.

23-24 the D is this

Chychrun zub
Sanderson thomson
Brannstrom jdb