Flyers Stats Prediction Thread 2024 2025

[usahockey22flyers]

Inspired by @Curufinwe!

Feel free to add any thoughts/comments below along with your predictions!

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Flyers Record[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]OTL[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Playoffs?[/TD]
[TD]Yes[/TD]
[TD]or[/TD]
[TD]No[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-------->[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]FWDs[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[TD]Comments[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Konecny[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sean Couturier[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matvei Michkov[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Owen Tippett[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Frost[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyson Foerster[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Joel Farabee[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jett Luchanko[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobby Brink[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Scott Laughton[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Poehling[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Garnet Hathaway[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nic Deslauriers[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noah Cates[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEF[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Sanheim[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam York[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nick Seeler[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jamie Drysdale[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Egor Zamula[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ras Ristolainen:[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Johnson[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Emil Andrae[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]W-L[/TD]
[TD]GAA[/TD]
[TD]Save %[/TD]
[TD]Comments[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sam Ersson[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ivan Fedotov[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexei Kolosov[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[usahockey22flyers]

FWDs	G	A	Points	Comments
Travis Konecny	37​	33​	70​
Sean Couturier	20​	23​	43​	Small resurgence
Matvei Michkov	25​	30​	55​
Owen Tippett	33​	26​	59​	I don't see 40, but I do see 30+
Morgan Frost	15​	37​	52​	xA turn into real assists this year
Tyson Foerster	21​	15​	36​
Joel Farabee	25​	30​	55​	Better season, but I think we find out the 50-65 range is where he'll be from here on out
Jett Luchanko	1​	2​	3​	I think it's 9 and done for him
Bobby Brink	10​	6​	16​	I kinda think he might not be here long
Scott Laughton	10​	15​	25​
Ryan Poehling	12​	11​	23​
Garnet Hathaway	5​	8​	13​
Nic Deslauriers	1​	1​	2​	Generous
Noah Cates	8​	10​	18​	Sell me your Cates stock
DEF
Travis Sanheim	7​	33​	40​
Cam York	12​	30​	42​	Step up again this year
Nick Seeler	2​	10​	12​
Jamie Drysdale	5​	25​	30​	We lost the trade, but Jamie plays good
Egor Zamula	5​	22​	27​	I'm assuming it's a few PP2 points
Ras Ristolainen:	2​	15​	17​	Traded at TDL
Erik Johnson	1​	3​	4​
Emil Andrae	2​	10​	12​
G	W-L-OTL	GAA	S%
Sam Ersson	22-20-5	2.85	.901
Ivan Fedotov	5-10-5	3.30	.850
Alexei Kolosov	7-7-1​	2.77	.890	Part of me thinks he goes back

 

[bennysflyers16]

Inspired by @Curufinwe!

Feel free to add any thoughts/comments below along with your predictions!

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Flyers Record[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]OTL[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Playoffs?[/TD]
[TD]Yes[/TD]
[TD]or[/TD]
[TD]No[/TD]
[TD]94[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-------->[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]No[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]FWDs[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[TD]Comments[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Konecny[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sean Couturier[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matvei Michkov[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD]Calder[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Owen Tippett[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]65[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Frost[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[TD]Stud[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyson Foerster[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Joel Farabee[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jett Luchanko[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Gone at 9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobby Brink[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]Torts Dog[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Scott Laughton[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Poehling[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Garnet Hathaway[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nic Deslauriers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]50 gams play[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noah Cates[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEF[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Sanheim[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam York[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nick Seeler[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]Good D[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jamie Drysdale[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Egor Zamula[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ras Ristolainen:[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Johnson[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Emil Andrae[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]W-L[/TD]
[TD]GAA[/TD]
[TD]Save %[/TD]
[TD]Comments[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sam Ersson[/TD]
[TD]28-35[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ivan Fedotov[/TD]
[TD]7-7[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexei Kolosov[/TD]
[TD]4-1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[BiggE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Flyers Record[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]OTL[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Playoffs?[/TD]
[TD]Yes[/TD]
[TD]or[/TD]
[TD]No[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]-------->[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]No[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]FWDs[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]A[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[TD]Comments[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Konecny[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]59[/TD]
[TD]<70gp[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sean Couturier[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]60-65gp[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matvei Michkov[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Owen Tippett[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD]Still dumb[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Frost[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]51[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyson Foerster[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Joel Farabee[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]3-4pp pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jett Luchanko[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]F Torts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobby Brink[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Scott Laughton[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]Traded, finally[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Poehling[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Garnet Hathaway[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nic Deslauriers[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]50gp[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noah Cates[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]70gp[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEF[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Sanheim[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]Little to no pp time[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cam York[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]Misses 8-10 injured[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nick Seeler[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Misses 30-40 games injured[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jamie Drysdale[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]Plays 65-70games[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Egor Zamula[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ras Ristolainen:[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Erik Johnson[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Dealt at deadline[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Emil Andrae[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]25-30gp[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]W-L[/TD]
[TD]GAA[/TD]
[TD]Save %[/TD]
[TD]Comments[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sam Ersson[/TD]
[TD]26-26-6[/TD]
[TD]2.97[/TD]
[TD].901[/TD]
[TD]Starts 58 games, 32 in first half. dinged up and burned out by March[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ivan Fedotov[/TD]
[TD]2-4-2[/TD]
[TD]3.81[/TD]
[TD].881[/TD]
[TD]Starts 5 games before being waived and sent down. Starts 2 more in Mar/Apr[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexei Kolosov[/TD]
[TD]6-7-3[/TD]
[TD]3.26[/TD]
[TD].893[/TD]
[TD]Starts 16 games[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[deadhead]

It's hard to do some stats without a sense of usage.
ES is much easier, combination of lines and role.
PP is iffy, depends on chemistry.

TK, Tippett, Michkov and Farabee should be 40+ ES scorers.
Frost, Brink, Couts, Foerster 30+
Cates, Laughton, Poehling 20+

Sanheim, Drysdale 30+
York 20+
Seeler, Risto, Zamula 10+

I won't even try to predict PP scoring. Other than Michkov should get 20+.
The rest? Let's see who ends up on PP1 and PP2.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Not gonna even try to do a player by player breakdown but I think if Coots is healthy he leads the team in points, probably in the 70s or high 60s, Konecny right behind him or ahead if Coots is not healthy. Michkov I think gets into the 50s and MAYBE the 60s. I think Brink will be the biggest surprise but not sure where that lands him. The goalies and defense blow all year and the team finishes bottom 5. At lottery time we get jumped by at least one team.

 

[Rebels57]

Not gonna even try to do a player by player breakdown but I think if Coots is healthy he leads the team in points, probably in the 70s or high 60s, Konecny right behind him or ahead if Coots is not healthy. Michkov I think gets into the 50s and MAYBE the 60s. I think Brink will be the biggest surprise but not sure where that lands him. The goalies and defense blow all year and the team finishes bottom 5. At lottery time we get jumped by at least one team.

You're on drugs if you think Coots is ever getting back into the 70s.

TK will easily lead this team in scoring and will probably hit 90 points if the powerplay is middle of the pack instead of historically bad. If it's just regular bad, he will still be around a PPG.

 

[freakydallas13]

You're on drugs if you think Coots is ever getting back into the 70s.

TK will easily lead this team in scoring and will probably hit 90 points if the powerplay is middle of the pack instead of historically bad. If it's just regular bad, he will still be around a PPG.

I'd be thrilled if Couts hit 60.

I don't have the energy to plot out the whole roster's point total, but I will say I think this team basically finishes in the same spot they did last year in the standings: 90-95 points, and again in roadkill no-man's land first round bubble purgatory.

 

[flyersnorth]

The o/u for the Flyers point totals is 85.5.

I'll take the over, honestly. I'm thinking between 88-92 points, just miss the playoffs.

 

[WIP CALLER]

The o/u for the Flyers point totals is 85.5.

I'll take the over, honestly. I'm thinking between 88-92 points, just miss the playoffs.

Under 80 points, team quits on Torts by December.

 

[deadhead]

They have a good shot at the playoffs if we have "good" Ersson for 50 games.
Still need average play from Fedotov (or Kolosov).

They should score league average at ES, PP around 20th, PK top 10.

So season will come down to goalie play.
Not enough depth to outscore a below average goalie.

 

[VladDrag]

My projections are only for forwards, and they are raw points. I didn't do as much detailed analysis as I did in previous years. Also, these are not what I necessarily think they will score in a year, only if the player hits their projections, I'd call their scoring totals with a ~B ranking.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Assists[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matvei Michkov[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

30​

[/TD]

[TD]

55​

[/TD]

[TD]I don't want to put too much pressure too early on him. I think 55 points this year would be a very good start[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sean Couturier[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

30​

[/TD]

[TD]

55​

[/TD]

[TD]I have faith Couts will get back to the 55 point mark for the next few seasons. Provided he plays enough with scoring talent.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Konecny[/TD]

[TD]

30​

[/TD]

[TD]

45​

[/TD]

[TD]

75​

[/TD]

[TD]I still have faith he's a ppg player in the right circumstances, but it hasn't happened just yet.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Owen Tippett[/TD]

[TD]

26​

[/TD]

[TD]

24​

[/TD]

[TD]

50​

[/TD]

[TD]Hopefully he's just starting slow. We'll see how it goes.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Frost[/TD]

[TD]

20​

[/TD]

[TD]

35​

[/TD]

[TD]

55​

[/TD]

[TD]Shit or get off the pot year for Frost. He hasn't been as productive as I think he could be, but it appears he'll be playing with very good wingers[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyson Foerster[/TD]

[TD]

20​

[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

45​

[/TD]

[TD]I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up with 50-60 points, but it's just hard to project it[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Joel Farabee[/TD]

[TD]

28​

[/TD]

[TD]

28​

[/TD]

[TD]

56​

[/TD]

[TD]Steady production from him. He's a very solid player.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobby Brink[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

50​

[/TD]

[TD]I'm excited to watch Brink this whole season.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Scott Laughton[/TD]

[TD]

15​

[/TD]

[TD]

15​

[/TD]

[TD]

30​

[/TD]

[TD]Despite bad underlyings, he's always produced. I imagine the same this year.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Poehling[/TD]

[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]

15​

[/TD]

[TD]

27​

[/TD]

[TD]These projections may be low if he gets to play with other talent.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Garnet Hathaway[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]

18​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noah Cates[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]

18​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[VladDrag]

My projections are only for forwards, and they are raw points. I didn't do as much detailed analysis as I did in previous years. Also, these are not what I necessarily think they will score in a year, only if the player hits their projections, I'd call their scoring totals with a ~B ranking.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Assists[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matvei Michkov[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

30​

[/TD]

[TD]

55​

[/TD]

[TD]I don't want to put too much pressure too early on him. I think 55 points this year would be a very good start[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sean Couturier[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

30​

[/TD]

[TD]

55​

[/TD]

[TD]I have faith Couts will get back to the 55 point mark for the next few seasons. Provided he plays enough with scoring talent.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Travis Konecny[/TD]

[TD]

30​

[/TD]

[TD]

45​

[/TD]

[TD]

75​

[/TD]

[TD]I still have faith he's a ppg player in the right circumstances, but it hasn't happened just yet.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Owen Tippett[/TD]

[TD]

26​

[/TD]

[TD]

24​

[/TD]

[TD]

50​

[/TD]

[TD]Hopefully he's just starting slow. We'll see how it goes.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Frost[/TD]

[TD]

20​

[/TD]

[TD]

35​

[/TD]

[TD]

55​

[/TD]

[TD]Shit or get off the pot year for Frost. He hasn't been as productive as I think he could be, but it appears he'll be playing with very good wingers[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tyson Foerster[/TD]

[TD]

20​

[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

45​

[/TD]

[TD]I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up with 50-60 points, but it's just hard to project it[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Joel Farabee[/TD]

[TD]

28​

[/TD]

[TD]

28​

[/TD]

[TD]

56​

[/TD]

[TD]Steady production from him. He's a very solid player.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobby Brink[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]

50​

[/TD]

[TD]I'm excited to watch Brink this whole season.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Scott Laughton[/TD]

[TD]

15​

[/TD]

[TD]

15​

[/TD]

[TD]

30​

[/TD]

[TD]Despite bad underlyings, he's always produced. I imagine the same this year.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Poehling[/TD]

[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]

15​

[/TD]

[TD]

27​

[/TD]

[TD]These projections may be low if he gets to play with other talent.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Garnet Hathaway[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]

18​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Noah Cates[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]

18​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So I haven't done this much this year -- not really had the time. But 41 games in here's the check in. Reminder, I only do this for forwards, as I think point projections are difficult for defenseman (for the most part).

Player	Position	GP	TOI	pGoals	pAssists	pPoints	SH%	On Ice Sh.
Bobby Brink	R	38​	507.333333​	9​	32​	41​	7.41​	11.91​
Garnet Hathaway	R	41​	485.8​	6​	18​	24​	5.77​	11.17​
Joel Farabee	L	41​	628.45​	23​	16​	39​	7.32​	8.54​
Matvei Michkov	R	39​	642.3​	35​	36​	71​	14.46​	11.4​
Morgan Frost	C	37​	545.15​	16​	24​	40​	11.29​	11.9​
Nicolas Deslauriers	L	7​	42.5666667​	0​	12​	12​	0​	7.69​
Noah Cates	L	37​	512.533333​	16​	22​	38​	16.67​	12.22​
Owen Tippett	R	41​	685.633333​	22​	26​	48​	10.58​	11.44​
Ryan Poehling	C	38​	515.066667​	6​	22​	28​	8.57​	9.76​
Scott Laughton	C	41​	589.45​	18​	26​	44​	12​	9.54​
Sean Couturier	C	39​	685.216667​	15​	27​	42​	10.29​	10.84​
Travis Konecny	R	41​	857.866667​	40​	50​	90​	19.05​	11.43​
Tyson Foerster	R	40​	610.5​	25​	14​	39​	18.75​	10.36​

The totals you see above are the prorated totals projected over 82 games. For example, Brink has played 38 games, and is projected to play 79 games and score 39 points. However, I have him projected at 41 points. It's a bit easier to compare my projections that way.

To me the main takeaway here are how low the projected totals are, despite decent shooting percentages (For reference the 50th percentile individual shooting % for forwards with 400 minimum minutes is 12.5 and the 50th percentile for on ice sh % is 10.7). In other words, it's not like this team is generating chances, and it's just a matter of finishing. They are not generating enough chances. Further, in terms of pure projections, multiple players are looking to regress or stagnate from last year. Frost, Tippett, and Farabee have seen some forms of regression. Brink and Foerster have not taken a step forward as of yet.

I'm going to touch more on this in the roster thread...

 

[VladDrag]

So I haven't done this much this year -- not really had the time. But 41 games in here's the check in. Reminder, I only do this for forwards, as I think point projections are difficult for defenseman (for the most part).

Player	Position	GP	TOI	pGoals	pAssists	pPoints	SH%	On Ice Sh.
Bobby Brink	R	38​	507.333333​	9​	32​	41​	7.41​	11.91​
Garnet Hathaway	R	41​	485.8​	6​	18​	24​	5.77​	11.17​
Joel Farabee	L	41​	628.45​	23​	16​	39​	7.32​	8.54​
Matvei Michkov	R	39​	642.3​	35​	36​	71​	14.46​	11.4​
Morgan Frost	C	37​	545.15​	16​	24​	40​	11.29​	11.9​
Nicolas Deslauriers	L	7​	42.5666667​	0​	12​	12​	0​	7.69​
Noah Cates	L	37​	512.533333​	16​	22​	38​	16.67​	12.22​
Owen Tippett	R	41​	685.633333​	22​	26​	48​	10.58​	11.44​
Ryan Poehling	C	38​	515.066667​	6​	22​	28​	8.57​	9.76​
Scott Laughton	C	41​	589.45​	18​	26​	44​	12​	9.54​
Sean Couturier	C	39​	685.216667​	15​	27​	42​	10.29​	10.84​
Travis Konecny	R	41​	857.866667​	40​	50​	90​	19.05​	11.43​
Tyson Foerster	R	40​	610.5​	25​	14​	39​	18.75​	10.36​

The totals you see above are the prorated totals projected over 82 games. For example, Brink has played 38 games, and is projected to play 79 games and score 39 points. However, I have him projected at 41 points. It's a bit easier to compare my projections that way.

To me the main takeaway here are how low the projected totals are, despite decent shooting percentages (For reference the 50th percentile individual shooting % for forwards with 400 minimum minutes is 12.5 and the 50th percentile for on ice sh % is 10.7). In other words, it's not like this team is generating chances, and it's just a matter of finishing. They are not generating enough chances. Further, in terms of pure projections, multiple players are looking to regress or stagnate from last year. Frost, Tippett, and Farabee have seen some forms of regression. Brink and Foerster have not taken a step forward as of yet.

I'm going to touch more on this in the roster thread...

Game 69 Update -

Player	GP	Projected Goals	Goals +/-	Projected Assists	Assists +/-	Projected Points	Points +/-
Bobby Brink	66	12	-13	27	2	39	-11
Garnet Hathaway	60	11	3	14	4	25	7
Joel Farabee	50	13	-15	18	-10	31	-25
Matvei Michkov	67	24	-1	33	3	57	2
Morgan Frost	49	18	-2	23	-12	41	-14
Noah Cates	65	18	10	18	8	36	18
Owen Tippett	64	24	-2	22	-2	46	-4
Ryan Poehling	55	7	-5	18	3	25	-2
Scott Laughton	60	15	0	22	7	37	7
Sean Couturier	66	12	-13	27	-3	39	-16
Travis Konecny	69	26	-4	51	6	77	2
Tyson Foerster	68	19	-1	17	-8	36	-9

​

Of note to me is Tyson Foerster's inability to translate his underrated passing game seen at lower levels (AHL/OHL). It's not a concern yet, but next year, for me is a really big year for Tyson IMO in this regard. With any luck, they get rid of Torts and instill a coach that will give the team a bit more leeway to make plays (lol)....

Below is his player card from All Three Zones, and as you can see his passing is really really bad. That's also corroborated with his setting stat at Hockey Viz.

EDIT - My chart originally got really f***ed up.