F Samu Tuomaala - Jukurit Liiga/U20 (2021, 46th, PHI)
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Based on the highlights, he looks very skilled and athletic, but juniorish(which is to be expected at this age). A couple of possible red flags:
1) If you look at his B-SM production, his production during the first six games(when he was mostly on a line centered by Aatu Raty) was 2.17 pts/gm. When Raty went up to A-juniors, Tuomaala's production dropped to 1.13 pts/gm in the successive games.
2) Based on Tuomaala's current measurements, he's ~68th percentile for height and ~87th percentile for weight. This could indicate that he's matured early, as people usually gain height before they gain bulk. If so, he may have a temporary advantage compared to his peers, who could still be growing into their soon-to-be adult bodies. On the other hand, he apparently grew 2cm in the past year or so, so he may gain a couple more cm in height.
1) If you look at his B-SM production, his production during the first six games(when he was mostly on a line centered by Aatu Raty) was 2.17 pts/gm. When Raty went up to A-juniors, Tuomaala's production dropped to 1.13 pts/gm in the successive games.
2) Based on Tuomaala's current measurements, he's ~68th percentile for height and ~87th percentile for weight. This could indicate that he's matured early, as people usually gain height before they gain bulk. If so, he may have a temporary advantage compared to his peers, who could still be growing into their soon-to-be adult bodies. On the other hand, he apparently grew 2cm in the past year or so, so he may gain a couple more cm in height.
4+3 in 3 games vs Sweden this weekend.
All three games are on YouTube
Leijonat - LIVE-sivut U16-maaottelut FIN-SWE // 14.-16.12.2018 Kajaani-Iisalmi
All three games are on YouTube
Leijonat - LIVE-sivut U16-maaottelut FIN-SWE // 14.-16.12.2018 Kajaani-Iisalmi
As a Kärpät fan it feels almost untrue that we have both Räty and Tuomaala in 2021 draft. And they both have also decent older brothers in 2019 (Aku Räty) and 2020 (Arttu Tuomaala) drafts.
Noma
Registered User
Kaako Kappo
Kaako Kappo
So Kärpät have two top Finnish prospects for 2021? How am i not surprised...
Tuomaala is really something, I have him as my #5 prospect for the 2021 draft. He plays the game at a high speed as a really dynamic skater who’s hands are just as fast as his feet. But his shot is the real deal. His release is insane and he regularly sniped from above the tops of the circles
Quite a pipeline for Finland. This guy is a top talent for 2021. Reminds me a bit of Pasta with even more of a motor.
MMANumminen
Registered User
I will do a sudoku if this kid is not playing in the NHL in the future
Ryan Van Horne
aka Scribe
Kaako Kappo
Kaako Kappo
What a shot he has. God damn. Fast release, a lot of velocity and accurate.
Ryan Van Horne
aka Scribe
I know, right? You can teach a kid to play defence. You can't teach them what he can do.
He's an impressive player for sure. Currently looks like the best 2003-born player for the 2021 draft by a noticeable margin. Many of his attributes are very projectable and he looks good to the eye test as well. Scoring's been very good thus far, though usually the Jr. A season is the one from which we can draw some further-reaching conclusions so it'll be very interesting to see how he does next season. Starting with Hlinka, of course.
Back in the day people said something similar about Toni Rajala, Teemu Pulkkinen and Eeli Tolvanen as well. The biggest difference is that those guys scored at a record pace while Tuomaala’s production is closer to someone like Tomi Wilenius who developed into a beer league big shot.
Stat scouting can be very misleading, but it’s good to remember that the same thing applies to highlights scouting as well. It’s like reading few pages from a book and expecting to understand the whole story with all its nuances.
Tuomaala played some strong hockey with the U16 national team, but watch him play a few games against older, more challenging competition and you’ll understand that there are still shortcomings and potential pitfalls in his game.
It’s a no-brainer to say that Aatu Räty is a potential 1st round pick for 2021 NHL draft, but in my view making predictions about Tuomaala isn’t much more than lottery at this point; you may hit the jackpot or in turn look like a complete jackass.
Aatu Raty potential 1st round pick? More like potential 1st OA since he pretty much is the front runner right now
but yeah it's a couple years left till that draft so i'm not saying he's a lock at all lol. And nice logic generalizing all finns like that because Pulkkinen was good in the AHL but sucked in the NHL etc nobody really cares. And why are you ruling Tolvanen out he has gotten alot of praise at camp? If the scouts are praising Tuomaala to go high in the first round i believe that it is for a reason too. Your argument is pretty much confusing and weird to be honest.Is there no point in discussing players that are showing high potential two years away from their draft year? At what point do you assume it’s acceptable to open up a thread and discuss someone’s potential? Tuomaala has mountains of it. It’s clear watching him play - stats aside.
Kaako Kappo
Kaako Kappo
What on earth are you on about? Tuomaala's junior production is on par with most Finnish kids who went high. Very comparable numbers with Kakko for an example.
You have such aged comparables there. Tuomaala's production in this day and age in the current Finnish system is alot more impressive than it would have been at the time those players you listed were juniors. How was Kaapo Kakko's production? 41 points in 35 games. And why did you not compare to him instead of those far older players playing in an incomparable league in terms of overall quality? Because it wouldn't fit your agenda.
Your MO seems to be "this Finnish player won't be that good, because: *list random players from ages ago instead of any recent comparables who actually have been successful*".
Eeli Tolvanen's an interesting case though, he's the one comparable that works. But even then, he was just seen as a late 1st rounder. In his case, skating was a significant issue, which it isn't for Tuomaala. However, that too seemed to be during the transition period, and I'd say that the BSM level's now stronger than it was at that point, just looking at the type of production prospects of a certain level tend to have - which is significantly lower than many weaker ones would have had around Tolvanen's time.
Kaako Kappo
Kaako Kappo
Skating is not a significant issue with Eeli. If it was he would have been picked on 3rd round ffs.
In 2015 it absolutely was thought to be one, though. And sheesh, Laine was picked #2OA even though skating was a significant issue with him.
Admittedly some of my writing is a bit provocative but I hope you understand that that’s often a requirement when you try to challenge the prevailing outlook in a message board like this.
Rajala, Pulkkinen and Tolvanen were smallish wingers who were projected highly here at HFBoards. Tuomaala fits to that category.
If Tuomaala grows a couple of inches he might fit better to the same bracket with guys like Donskoi, Lehkonen and Kapanen, but it remains to be seen whether that happens. And I don’t think those guys were ever projected as top-5 picks by prospect nerds around here.
And speaking about agenda, why bring Kakko to this discussion and not say a word about Henri Nikkanen and Leevi Aaltonen for example? See how it works both ways.
And I don’t think it was any easier to score in Jr.B when Rajala, Haula, Vatanen, Pulkkinen, Granlund and Donskoi played there 11 or 12 years ago.
Tuomaala looked very good with the U16 national team, but I wasn’t that impressed with him when I saw him play against some of the better teams in Jr.B. That skating that everyone is praising about looked less imposing, that shot was often blocked or no where near to its intended target, and his overall impact to the game wasn’t anything earth shattering.
I’m an old fart by the standards of this forum and I’ve seen plenty of prospects come and go during the last 20 years starting from guys like Kari Lehtonen and Joni Pitkänen. As a kid I even saw Eric Lindros visit Finland with some Canadian national team before his NHL career. Based on my experience I feel that the hype around Tuomaala as a potential top-5 pick is unwarranted and that’s why I’m voicing my opinion about it.
On the other hand, I feel that the hype around Aatu Räty is mostly warranted. I think that he could be a top-10 pick if all the things go well, but that’s also the reason why you won’t see me discussing about him that much. There’s nothing much to debate about him.
Do these scouts you are talking about have a proven track record and some credibility in the business? Have these scouts you are talking about travelled around North America and Europe to see all the notable 2021 eligible prospects? How many times have these scouts seen Tuomaala play live?
There are plenty of self-appointed scouts out there with a twitter account and a blog page, but only a few of them are worth following and they don't pretend to bigger than they really are.
As far as so-called scouting agencies go, most of their staff comprises of prospect nerds just like us that do some scouting as a hobby. Some of these hobbyists are gifted at what they do and eventually move on to work for NHL/CHL/USHL teams, but that by no means is a guarantee of overall quality, especially when looking at rankings published two years before the draft.
Some examples from ISS top-30 for 2013 NHL draft that was published with their 2011 Draft Guide:
4. Alex Forsberg (didn't get drafted and played university hockey last season)
6. Victor Crus Rydberg (5th round pick that now plays 3rd tier hockey in Sweden)
7. Hudson Fasching (4th round pick that developed into a decent AHL player)
8. Keegan Kanzig (3rd round pick that played in ECHL last season)
10. Nicholas Baptiste (3rd round pick that developed into a tweener)
13. Jared Hauf (didn't get drafted and played university hockey last season)
16. Jordan Maletta (didn't get drafted, coached in juniors last season)
19. Spenser Jensen (didn't get drafted and played university hockey last season)
21. Taylor Cammarata (3rd round pick and played in ECHL last season)
23. Kyle Burroughs (7th round pick that developed into a decent AHL player)
Forum rules prohibits me from posting the whole ranking, but I can tell you that Jonathan Drouin, Elias Lindholm, Bo Horvat, Max Domi, Josh Morrissey, Alexander Wennberg, Nikita Zadorov, Anthony Mantha and Andre Burakovsky are some of the notable names missing from that list.
Mckeen's Hockey released a top-12 ranking for 2014 draft with their 2012 draft guide. Their top-6 looks surprisingly good, but but after that the ranking goes down hill quite fast:
7. Joshua Jacobs (2nd round pick)
8. Eric Cornel (2nd round pick)
9. Brandon Robinson (didn't get drafted)
10. Reid Duke (6th round pick)
11. Jakub Vrana (1st round pick, 13th overall)
12. Daniel Audette (5th round pick)
Future Considerations released a top-10 ranking for 2014 with their 2012 draft guide:
1. Aaron Ekblad (selected 1st overall)
2. Sam Reinhart (2nd overall)
3. Nick Ritchie (10th overall)
4. Ivan Barbashev (2nd round pick)
5. Blake Clarke (didn't get drafted)
6. Roland McKeown (2nd round pick)
7. Jake Virtanen (6th overall)
8. Joshua Ho-Sang (28th overall)
9. Tony DeAngelo (19th overall)
10. Keegan Iverson (3rd round pick)
This doesn't look that bad but there are still some obvious misses like Clarke, Iverson and perhaps McKeown as well. And not having Leon Draisaitl there is a major omission of course.
As a summary: Using some source criticism might not be a bad idea.
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