F Jake O’Brien - Brantford Bulldogs, OHL (2025 Draft)

[montreal]

O'Brien 2 on 1 5:31
O'Brien Assist 5:51
O'Brien Pass 9:25

there's a good bit of his shifts in the vid, it's mostly him on the ice with Protz.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Just throwing this out there, but only 23 percent of O’Brien’s assists were primary 5v5, which is by far the lowest rate among the top CHL draft-eligibles. For added context, Hagens was at 50% for BC, Desnoyers at 45%, Reschny at 42% and Martone at 38%.

Martone delivered 23 5v5 A1s in 57 games compared to 15 in 66 for O’Brien. Also bears mentioning that Martone was a top-line wing on an injury-depleted team while O’Brien was a 2C on a deep squad.

 

[Roasted Nuts]

Just throwing this out there, but only 23 percent of O’Brien’s assists were primary 5v5, which is by far the lowest rate among the top CHL draft-eligibles. For added context, Hagens was at 50% for BC, Desnoyers at 45%, Reschny at 42% and Martone at 38%.

Martone delivered 23 5v5 A1s in 57 games compared to 15 in 66 for O’Brien. Also bears mentioning that Martone was a top-line wing on an injury-depleted team while O’Brien was a 2C on a deep squad.

Interesting, do you know where we can access this data? It seems like a advanced staff for prospects are very scarce compared to NHL players. Would love to see these stats.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Interesting, do you know where we can access this data? It seems like a advanced staff for prospects are very scarce compared to NHL players. Would love to see these stats.

I used to get it from InStat but they’re a ripoff and also were wrong how some assists were credited, so I started tracking it myself from the league website, then confirmed with video replay (mostly the highlight vids attached to the official box scores). Used the game logs for about 15 top-scoring CHL forwards. Some lesser-knowns may have had a better PCTs, but I was specifically looking for help in ranking the best draft-eligible forwards. The data is on a datawrapper table but behind a paywalled post on my substack.

Anyway, it was surprising to me that O’Brien was dead last (out of the 15) in primary assist percentage at 5v5. He was a huge PP merchant, although that isn’t always a bad thing.

 

[BigRangy]

This is peak O’Brien. What a pass!

Through 3 triangles, nasty

 

[Donnie740]

It’s absurd for Central Scouting to have O’Brien ranked ahead of Porter Martone.

As mentioned previously, the majority of O’Briens points came on the power play. Of course they did, because having the extra time and space with the man advantage allowed O’Btien to take advantage of his high hockey IQ.

O’Brien also had the benefit of playing on the power play alongside one of the OHL’s most prolific goal scorers, Nick Lardis. So it was use the extra space to take your time and get the puck to Lardis then let him do the rest. But when Lardis got hurt in the playoffs against Oshawa, O’Brien was invisible.

He can’t create his own offence for himself because he’s not fast enough, not strong enough on the puck and doesn’t have a good enough shot. But if you give him enough time and space and a good shooter, he can pile up assists.

With Martone, you always know when he’s on the ice. If he’s not driving the net or setting up in the slot to snipe goals, he’s setting up teammates for goals. And when neither is working for him, he’ll get involved physically and mix it up in the corners. Which is something you’ll NEVER see from O’Brien.

Lots of players can dominate in junior hockey despite their glaring shortcomings. And that’s what O’Brien has been doing. The biggest difference between the NHL and junior hockey is how much faster the game moves. Which is a huge problem for players like O’Brien who need the extra time and space because it’s just not going to be there at the NHL level.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

It’s absurd for Central Scouting to have O’Brien ranked ahead of Porter Martone.

As mentioned previously, the majority of O’Briens points came on the power play. Of course they did, because having the extra time and space with the man advantage allowed O’Btien to take advantage of his high hockey IQ.

O’Brien also had the benefit of playing on the power play alongside one of the OHL’s most prolific goal scorers, Nick Lardis. So it was use the extra space to take your time and get the puck to Lardis then let him do the rest. But when Lardis got hurt in the playoffs against Oshawa, O’Brien was invisible.

He can’t create his own offence for himself because he’s not fast enough, not strong enough on the puck and doesn’t have a good enough shot. But if you give him enough time and space and a good shooter, he can pile up assists.

With Martone, you always know when he’s on the ice. If he’s not driving the net or setting up in the slot to snipe goals, he’s setting up teammates for goals. And when neither is working for him, he’ll get involved physically and mix it up in the corners. Which is something you’ll NEVER see from O’Brien.

Lots of players can dominate in junior hockey despite their glaring shortcomings. And that’s what O’Brien has been doing. The biggest difference between the NHL and junior hockey is how much faster the game moves. Which is a huge problem for players like O’Brien who need the extra time and space because it’s just not going to be there at the NHL level.

So is O'Brien just another Matt Savoie where it's going to take him a bit longer to get to the NHL because of the improvements he needs to make to his game? Do you think he should go to the NCAA next year to face better, older competition/defense/goalies?

 

[Donnie740]

So is O'Brien just another Matt Savoie where it's going to take him a bit longer to get to the NHL because of the improvements he needs to make to his game? Do you think he should go to the NCAA next year to face better, older competition/defense/goalies?

Going to the NCAA isn’t going to turn O’Brien into a strong skater. Nor is it going to transform his shot from mediocre to rocket level. It’s also not going to change his bone structure from frail and lanky to strong and robust.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Going to the NCAA isn’t going to turn O’Brien into a strong skater. Nor is it going to transform his shot from mediocre to rocket level. It’s also not going to change his bone structure from frail and lanky to strong and robust.

He can get stronger with more weight training in university. He definitely needs to work with a skating coach to improve his pace.

 

[Donnie740]

He can get stronger with more weight training in university. He definitely needs to work with a skating coach to improve his pace.

Eventually O’Brien might be able to bench press 135lbs a half dozen times instead of just once or twice, but no amount of weight training is going to change his frame.

Some people have the frame structure to carry more muscle and/ir wight. Some people don’t.

Mitch Marner and Nate MacKinnon are both 6’ tall but their frames are completely different. Marner is frail and lanky whereas MacKinnon is stocky and robust.

 

[I am Bettman]

Eventually O’Brien might be able to bench press 135lbs a half dozen times instead of just once or twice, but no amount of weight training is going to change his frame.

Some people have the frame structure to carry more muscle and/ir wight. Some people don’t.

Mitch Marner and Nate MacKinnon are both 6’ tall but their frames are completely different. Marner is frail and lanky whereas MacKinnon is stocky and robust.

I would agree with you if these players had actually maximized their muscle growth on their frames, but the truth is that most of these guys haven’t lifted weights optimally with the right nutrition for long enough to max out their frames. Sure, O’Brien may only be able to hit 195 pounds instead of someone else his height hitting 210, but there is still a lot of weight to be gained.

 

[ElmegTheWise]

Just throwing this out there, but only 23 percent of O’Brien’s assists were primary 5v5, which is by far the lowest rate among the top CHL draft-eligibles. For added context, Hagens was at 50% for BC, Desnoyers at 45%, Reschny at 42% and Martone at 38%.

Martone delivered 23 5v5 A1s in 57 games compared to 15 in 66 for O’Brien. Also bears mentioning that Martone was a top-line wing on an injury-depleted team while O’Brien was a 2C on a deep squad.

This is great stuff, thank you for sharing

 

[Nabrules]

I would agree with you if these players had actually maximized their muscle growth on their frames, but the truth is that most of these guys haven’t lifted weights optimally with the right nutrition for long enough to max out their frames. Sure, O’Brien may only be able to hit 195 pounds instead of someone else his height hitting 210, but there is still a lot of weight to be gained.

To this point Elias Pettersson is a prime example of this. Over 6'2 and when he was drafted he I was 160 pounds. Never got to 210 pounds but at the very least got to 185. People doubted he could even get to that with his genetic build.

O'Brien may not get to over 200 but even if he gets to 190 from his current 170, that's huge.

 

[Jacob]

When I see clips of the "functional fitness" or quarter squats these guys are doing in the gym, combined with a pretty strenuous regular season schedule, it's no wonder they struggle to put on muscle.

 

[I am Bettman]

When I see clips of the "functional fitness" or quarter squats these guys are doing in the gym, combined with a pretty strenuous regular season schedule, it's no wonder they struggle to put on muscle.

The issue is that the people hiring the trainers won’t often be able to see the results of good training over the course of a season because it’s just not that long a period of time. All they see are the individual workouts, so the flashy trainer is more likely to keep his job.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

When I see clips of the "functional fitness" or quarter squats these guys are doing in the gym, combined with a pretty strenuous regular season schedule, it's no wonder they struggle to put on muscle.

Sports have (rightfully) gotten away from old school Olympic lifting. Now most of the focus is on flexibility and movement. Which is a good thing.

I don’t think you want O’Brien (or whatever 17 year old) just crushing static weights and bulking up 25-30 lbs in a summer. He won’t be able to move as well and will dramatically increase his risk for injury.

What is more reasonable is guys gradually and naturally filling out their frame as they age and adding strength, not necessarily weight.

 

[I am Bettman]

Sports have (rightfully) gotten away from old school Olympic lifting. Now most of the focus is on flexibility and movement. Which is a good thing.

I don’t think you want O’Brien (or whatever 17 year old) just crushing static weights and bulking up 25-30 lbs in a summer. He won’t be able to move as well and will dramatically increase his risk for injury.

What is more reasonable is guys gradually and naturally filling out their frame as they age and adding strength, not necessarily weight.

A bigger muscle is a stronger muscle, 25-30 lbs in a summer would probably be about 10 lbs of muscle maximum and the rest is fat. It only takes a pound or two of extra muscle in his legs in order to make up for total weight gain across his entire body. People make the mistake of thinking muscles slow you down when in reality these guys that bulk up like crazy also gain a ton of fat.

 

[SaSaShi]

Watching his full game shifts I came away very impressed. He has a high ceiling offensively because his hands, creativity/IQ and vision are really top notch. Skating is avg at best right now but should improve as he gets stronger in the lower body.

If compared with Desnoyers for example, O'brien's overall skillset is on a higher level. Would not surprise me at all if he became an NHL star.

He is a higher risk than the safer picks like Desnoyers, Frondell. But those hands he has and stickhandling in tight, wow, you can't teach that....and his shot is also underrated, because he just doesn't shoot enough.

Am I just seeing things and overly optimistic with O'brien? But the more I watch, the more I want the Flyers to select him at 6.

 

[TLEH]

He has a lot of tools but whenever I watch him, I just don't like the player lol. I can't even really articulate why. Someone on our board says its like a player carrying around all his tools in a plastic bag. I kinda agree with that.

 

[montreal]

Watching his full game shifts I came away very impressed. He has a high ceiling offensively because his hands, creativity/IQ and vision are really top notch. Skating is avg at best right now but should improve as he gets stronger in the lower body.

If compared with Desnoyers for example, O'brien's overall skillset is on a higher level. Would not surprise me at all if he became an NHL star.

He is a higher risk than the safer picks like Desnoyers, Frondell. But those hands he has and stickhandling in tight, wow, you can't teach that....and his shot is also underrated, because he just doesn't shoot enough.

Am I just seeing things and overly optimistic with O'brien? But the more I watch, the more I want the Flyers to select him at 6.

I like him as he's smart and skilled playmaker but have a lot of concerns as he's so skinny, easy to push off pucks. I would be shocked if he's not a top 10 pick though.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Watching his full game shifts I came away very impressed. He has a high ceiling offensively because his hands, creativity/IQ and vision are really top notch. Skating is avg at best right now but should improve as he gets stronger in the lower body.

If compared with Desnoyers for example, O'brien's overall skillset is on a higher level. Would not surprise me at all if he became an NHL star.

He is a higher risk than the safer picks like Desnoyers, Frondell. But those hands he has and stickhandling in tight, wow, you can't teach that....and his shot is also underrated, because he just doesn't shoot enough.

Am I just seeing things and overly optimistic with O'brien? But the more I watch, the more I want the Flyers to select him at 6.

Agree with you. Plus, his young birthday, two athletes as parents, tons of room to fill out and grow physically. You can see the high upside. And, being a righty fits michkov better. I think he could think the game on the same level.

 

[rocketdan9]

Watching his full game shifts I came away very impressed. He has a high ceiling offensively because his hands, creativity/IQ and vision are really top notch. Skating is avg at best right now but should improve as he gets stronger in the lower body.

If compared with Desnoyers for example, O'brien's overall skillset is on a higher level. Would not surprise me at all if he became an NHL star.

He is a higher risk than the safer picks like Desnoyers, Frondell. But those hands he has and stickhandling in tight, wow, you can't teach that....and his shot is also underrated, because he just doesn't shoot enough.

Am I just seeing things and overly optimistic with O'brien? But the more I watch, the more I want the Flyers to select him at 6.

If you watch his technique of short choppy strides.... its not a lack of strength issue.

He needs to reinvent his skating imo. For a 6'2 tall player - he should have longer strides. With mass - longer powerful strides.

At the NHL or even AHL level. Once he receives a pass mid ice, he will have a tough time to carry it into the O zone... without someone harassing him/turnover the puck. So all he could do is quickly pass it or dump and chase.

Watch how similar height(6'2) Desnoyers skates. Its night and day better. And with mass - Desnoyers could become a powerful skater like a Josh Anderson.

This skating question mark alone could make some teams take a pause on O'Brien.

If O'Brien skating only marginally improves/strength improves - the one team I think O'Brien could fit with is the Capitals. They are big (on avg) and skilled but half the team are not fast skaters.

 

[Nabrules]

Watching his full game shifts I came away very impressed. He has a high ceiling offensively because his hands, creativity/IQ and vision are really top notch. Skating is avg at best right now but should improve as he gets stronger in the lower body.

If compared with Desnoyers for example, O'brien's overall skillset is on a higher level. Would not surprise me at all if he became an NHL star.

He is a higher risk than the safer picks like Desnoyers, Frondell. But those hands he has and stickhandling in tight, wow, you can't teach that....and his shot is also underrated, because he just doesn't shoot enough.

Am I just seeing things and overly optimistic with O'brien? But the more I watch, the more I want the Flyers to select him at 6.

Completely agree with you here. He has literally all the tools you want.. Extremely skilled, competes hard and still room to grow.

If he hits he can be somewhat similar to Elias Pettersson (when he’s on his game).

As a Flyers fan myself he’s definitely in that range of 3-8 IMO.

 

[SaSaShi]

If you watch his technique of short choppy strides.... its not a lack of strength issue.

He needs to reinvent his skating imo. For a 6'2 tall player - he should have longer strides. With mass - longer powerful strides.

At the NHL or even AHL level. Once he receives a pass mid ice, he will have a tough time to carry it into the O zone... without someone harassing him/turnover the puck. So all he could do is quickly pass it or dump and chase.

Watch how similar height(6'2) Desnoyers skates. Its night and day better. And with mass - Desnoyers could become a powerful skater like a Josh Anderson.

This skating question mark alone could make some teams take a pause on O'Brien.

If O'Brien skating only marginally improves/strength improves - the one team I think O'Brien could fit with is the Capitals. They are big (on avg) and skilled but half the team are not fast skaters.

Yes I def notice the short choppy strides. Do you think this is fixable? It seems like a bad habit problem that is hindering his skating right now and could SEVERELY limit his NHL ceiling and make him a bust altogether.

But other than skating and body strength which are significant negatives today, I don't see any other weaknesses in his game. The skating/strength issue is what's limiting his 5 on 5 production.

But O'brien has good compete level, not a defensive liability, kills penalties, elite handles, passing, vision and IQ. A slightly above average shot which he needs to use more. Scores from dirty areas. Powerplay conductor, highly creative and has no known character concerns like Ryabkin for example.

I might be turning into an O'brien fanboy.

 

[Kegs]

I believe he is also one of the younger players in the draft ?