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News Article: Expansion draft, Team building and Salary Cap!

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Wafflewhipper

Wafflewhipper

Registered User
Jan 18, 2014
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I like the amount of expansion exempt players management has arranged. Won’t be losing to much, maybe Holl tops
 
I think its two years in a row that the players have decided on a lower escalator because of their dislike for escrow.

Also, given that the players will probably only have revenue & expense numbers from non-playoff teams (less than half of the teams) because some of the teams are still playing in late May & a couple into mid June , they aren't going to be able to use conclusive or league wide revenue & expense (includes total league salaries as necessary datapoint to calculate HRR) data to base their decision.

So, it boils down to whether a player benefits more from a higher cap, which would be players needing new contracts versus players who are already under contract that don't like escrow. The latter group is larger than the former. And, as mentioned in the opening sentence, the players opted for a low escalator in the past two seasons under these same circumstances.

The author of the article seems to agree and anticipates the cap ceiling will be $85 m.

It will be interesting one way or another to see what it is. Hope for the best, but plan on the worst case (or most realistic) I suppose.
 
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If we add a top 4 D that is not expansion draft exempt then bye bye Dermott to Seattle.
 
To save people some time, here's the summary bit on the Seattle expansion draft. The article also suggests that the Leafs will need to trade a forward in order to make a big splash acquisition at RD.

Summing Up the Seattle Risk

Seattle could scout and window shop Pierre Engvall, Kyle Clifford, and Justin Holl before deciding to pick Jack Campbell since only one goalie can be protected. No offense to Jack Campbell, but there are plenty of backup options that would be available next June and Campbell would be down the list.

My crystal ball right now says that Holl is the most likely selection by Seattle followed by Engvall. They have some very bright new analytics staff, so you can be sure they will make a smart choice. That is unless Dubas offers up a sacrificial lamb. We’re still a year away, but I wanted to emphasize the Seattle risk to the Leafs defense.
 
Zoltar said:
I think its two years in a row that the players have decided on a lower escalator because of their dislike for escrow.

Also, given that the players will probably only have revenue & expense numbers from non-playoff teams (less than half of the teams) because some of the teams are still playing in late May & a couple into mid June , they aren't going to be able to use conclusive or league wide revenue & expense (includes total league salaries as necessary datapoint to calculate HRR) data to base their decision.

So, it boils down to whether a player benefits more from a higher cap, which would be players needing new contracts versus players who are already under contract that don't like escrow. The latter group is larger than the former. And, as mentioned in the opening sentence, the players opted for a low escalator in the past two seasons under these same circumstances.

The author of the article seems to agree and anticipates the cap ceiling will be $85 m.

It will be interesting one way or another to see what it is. Hope for the best, but plan on the worst case (or most realistic) I suppose.
Click to expand...
$84,800,000 at the 1% escalator is enough for our status on cap. I’m good with that. We could midload contracts with signing bonus in the second year with this years Ufa’s to make Seattle back off on picking them and still protect Dermott. Dillon being signed by us this summer for example.
 
Tons of articles and lots of theories but players are very simple. You got to remember most of us are high schoolers. A few more college guys now in pro but some of the college guys are basket weaving so it doesn't count either. Bottom line 2 years ago it was a 15% escrow holdback and no monies returned on true up. Last year the escrow holdback was 14% and true up around 10%. This year is still unknown but holdback is still 14%. But true up expected to drop to 8-9%. Next year expect the escrow holdback to drop again down to 13% and with no escalator the true up will drop a little more. Then only 1 year left on this brutal CBA. Players goal is the get a very nominal holdback and then trueup so we get our holdback in full.
 
Zoltar said:
To save people some time, here's the summary bit on the Seattle expansion draft. The article also suggests that the Leafs will need to trade a forward in order to make a big splash acquisition at RD.

Summing Up the Seattle Risk

Seattle could scout and window shop Pierre Engvall, Kyle Clifford, and Justin Holl before deciding to pick Jack Campbell since only one goalie can be protected. No offense to Jack Campbell, but there are plenty of backup options that would be available next June and Campbell would be down the list.

My crystal ball right now says that Holl is the most likely selection by Seattle followed by Engvall. They have some very bright new analytics staff, so you can be sure they will make a smart choice. That is unless Dubas offers up a sacrificial lamb. We’re still a year away, but I wanted to emphasize the Seattle risk to the Leafs defense.
Click to expand...

When is the expansion draft? Clifford is a UFA, so the Leafs would have to sign him in order for him to be taken in the expansion draft.
 
Jeffrey Pedler said:
When is the expansion draft? Clifford is a UFA, so the Leafs would have to sign him in order for him to be taken in the expansion draft.
Click to expand...

Yes, I believe that was an assumption the author stated in his article. I posted just an excerpt from the article, but the full article contains more detail on assumptions and what not.
 
The Iceman said:
If we add a top 4 D that is not expansion draft exempt then bye bye Dermott to Seattle.
Click to expand...
I believe this would be the case. My top three defenseman now would be Rielly, Muzzen and Dermot. In acquiring a Top 3 Defenseman, Demott should be part of the trade or traded if acquiring a UFA. Another possibility would be to sign a UFA and expose the UFA at the draft. Potential 1 year of service gained and no asset lost beyond a player that was a UFA to start with.
 
For those that interested in escalator history from 2011 onwards. For more recent years, some numbers are not available.

The bigger issue around the salary cap is the question of the so-called inflator. That figure is the amount the NHLPA must vote on and agree to. The purpose of the inflator is to pump up the salary cap over and above the 50% of Hockey Related Revenue projections, in a way that assumes the coming season’s actual revenues will outstrip projections.

The inflator has had the effect in the past of inflating UFA salaries, and also inflating the amount of escrow that is held back from all NHL salaries, and ultimately might never be repaid.

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Year[/TD][TD]Withheld (%)[/TD][TD]Refunded (%)[/TD][TD]Salary
Lost (%)[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2011-12[/TD][TD]8.5[/TD][TD]8.0[/TD][TD].5[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2012-13[/TD][TD]16.3[/TD][TD]1.6[/TD][TD]14.7[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2013-14[/TD][TD]14[/TD][TD]3.8[/TD][TD]10.2[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2014-15[/TD][TD]15[/TD][TD]2.5[/TD][TD]12.95[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2015-16[/TD][TD]17[/TD][TD]3.2[/TD][TD]13.8[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2016-17[/TD][TD]15.5[/TD][TD]TBD[/TD][TD]?[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2017-18[/TD][TD]11.5[/TD][TD]TBD[/TD][TD]?[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2018-19[/TD][TD]13.5[/TD][TD]TBD[/TD][TD]?[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
 
IF we let it ride on Hyman and Freddie.

forwards

1.) Matthews
2.) tavares
3.) marner
4.) nylander
5.) kappy
6.) aj
7.) kerfoot

Expose: engvall. Really. The rest don’t matter.

D:
Rielly
Muzz
Dermott.


G
Campbell

We are in good shape. Really down to holl or engvall.

mid we trade like AJ and dermott for a D. It would work fine.
 
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Salary cap issues could become greater problem for Leafs in wake of coronavirus | Toronto Sun

There’s no telling yet what the salary cap for the 2020-21 season will amount to once the NHL returns, whenever that may be. The $81.5-million US cap for this season was expected to rise to anywhere between $84 million and $88.2 million, based on numbers being projected at the conclusion of the general managers meetings in Florida two weeks ago.

Among the possibilities is that the cap could remain flat for next season, which could mean some trouble for the Leafs.

The Leafs have in the range of $77 million US committed to 17 players (including goalies Andersen and Jack Campbell) for ’20-21, using data from the web site capfriendly.com. Four restricted free agents with varying degrees of importance — forward Ilya Mikheyev, defenceman Travis Dermott and forwards Frederik Gauthier and Denis Malgin — are going to be looking for new contracts.

Mikheyev was working his way back from a lacerated wrist after starting the season strongly, Dermott was finding his footing following some inconsistencies that were rooted in missing the first 13 games as he recovered from off-season shoulder surgery, and Gauthier was his usual self, bringing a workhorse attitude to the fourth line each night. Malgin didn’t have a point in eight games after being acquired from Florida, which isn’t good considering he was given a shot on a line with captain John Tavares.

The expectation in the past several weeks was that the Leafs wouldn’t be including Barrie and Ceci in their future plans, and that was before there was any thought that the salary cap might not increase in ’20-21.

In a best-case scenario, the Leafs would find a way to re-sign Spezza and Clifford. At the age of 36, Spezza soaked up everything about playing in his home town after signing a one-year contract for the league minimum last summer and quickly became a popular teammate.

What’s more, Spezza found a niche on the fourth line and put everything he had into accepting the role.

The rugged Clifford provided an element of physicality the Leafs didn’t have and would benefit from in the future. The native of Ayr, Ont., was thrilled to pull on a Leafs sweater after being acquired from L.A. on Feb. 5.

General manager Kyle Dubas will have challenges if the cap remains at $81.5 million, or doesn’t rise as high as initially expected. And looking ahead, two integral players — Andersen and winger Zach Hyman — will be unrestricted in 2021.

The likelihood is that one of Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson or Alex Kerfoot, each of whom carries a cap hit of at least $3.2 million for multiple seasons, will be traded.

The one positive is that we’re just speculating.

But given the fears involving the spread of the coronavirus and the time it will take to flatten the curve before pro sports are part of our daily lives again, the Leafs’ cap troubles would become real.
 
This topic seems so premature now in light of this new world we live in at this point. Everything is unknown, everything!
 
Seravalli: An early Canadian NHL Expansion Draft primer - TSN.ca

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Protection Scheme: 7/3/1

Forwards (7)

John Tavares – NMC
Pierre Engvall
Zach Hyman
Andreas Johnsson
Mitch Marner
Auston Matthews
William Nylander

Defence (3)

Travis Dermott/TBA
Jake Muzzin
Morgan Rielly

Goaltender (1)

Frederik Andersen

Potentially Exposed Players

F Frederik Gauthier
F Alex Kerfoot
F Evan Rodrigues
D Justin Holl
D Martin Marincin (UFA 2021)
D Calle Rosen (UFA 2021)

Talking Points

- The only surprise up front – as the Leafs are a no-doubter for the 7/3/1 scheme with their depth at forward – might be protecting Pierre Engvall instead of Alex Kerfoot for cap considerations.

- Travis Dermott may be a proxy for whomever the Leafs add to bolster their blueline this summer.

- Would the Leafs find a home for Justin Holl, who has cost certainty on the backend, before potentially exposing him?

What To Watch For

- Is Frederik Andersen a placeholder for the different goaltender the Leafs will have in net next season? Toronto has been linked to a number of different netminders in recent weeks as they might look to shake things up. Andersen provides a real financial benefit to cash-strapped teams with just $1 million owed to him this season in real dollars.
 
Korg said:
We better not be protecting Engvall.

If we get Pietrangelo, I can see us going 8-1 and re-signing Hyman after the draft.
Click to expand...
Yeah, perhaps he also needs to do his homework too. Hyman and Andersen will be UFA's, so unless they resign before the expansion draft, neither will require protecting.
 
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Weird bump. This is a thread to discuss a specific article, that was published pre-COVID. Really good article at the time, but now very irrelevant given that we’re in a flat cap scenario, which invalidates almost everything. Should probably just make a new thread if you don’t wanna discuss the article, but do wanna discuss the expansion draft?
 
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