Value of: Evan Rodrigues

[Empoleon8771]

I think this is more of a thought experiment than anything else, because I doubt the Penguins move him. If you're not familiar with Evan Rodrigues, he's basically a depth center/winger that is somehow destroying hockey this year and breaking analytics. Prior to this year, Rodrigues had 34 goals and 86 points in 234 games, which is a pace of about 30 points per 82 games. This year, he has 8 goals and 19 points in 27 games, which is a pace of 58 points per 82 games. In addition to the production, he's putting up analytics results that a player of his ability really shouldn't be putting up:





ERod has always been an analytics darling even dating back to Buffalo, but this is obscene even for him. This isn't even a result of him playing with elite players, he's doing this mostly as a play driving center.

But this thread was to ask another question: how would a team value a player in this kind of situation? He's a guy that is just comically outperforming his assumed abilities, but he's still putting up absolutely phenomenal results. I'm trying to figure out how a team would value a guy in this kind of situation.

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[GM Armchair]

A 3rd

 

[Akrapovince]

I think this is more of a thought experiment than anything else, because I doubt the Penguins move him. If you're not familiar with Evan Rodrigues, he's basically a depth center/winger that is somehow destroying hockey this year and breaking analytics. Prior to this year, Rodrigues had 34 goals and 86 points in 234 games, which is a pace of about 30 points per 82 games. This year, he has 8 goals and 19 points in 27 games, which is a pace of 58 points per 82 games. In addition to the production, he's putting up analytics results that a player of his ability really shouldn't be putting up:





ERod has always been an analytics darling even dating back to Buffalo, but this is obscene even for him. This isn't even a result of him playing with elite players, he's doing this mostly as a play driving center.

But this thread was to ask another question: how would a team value a player in this kind of situation? He's a guy that is just comically outperforming his assumed abilities, but he's still putting up absolutely phenomenal results. I'm trying to figure out how a team would value a guy in this kind of situation.

How do we determine whether a player is outplaying his ability or taking the next step as a player?

Obviously has a huge body of work that we can refer to and it’s not common for a player to breakout at 28, but is there any analytical data that we can rely upon to tell the difference in this case?

New to analytics so just trying to learn a bit

 

[Empoleon8771]

How do we determine whether a player is outplaying his ability or taking the next step as a player?

Obviously has a huge body of work that we can refer to and it’s not common for a player to breakout at 28, but is there any analytical data that we can rely upon to tell the difference in this case?

New to analytics so just trying to learn a bit

I don't think there is a way to do that with analytics. His analytics just say he's been playing amazingly well this year, but I don't think analytics are that predicative of future success, especially not in such a small sample size.

It's why I think it's tough to put a valuation here. He's a player that's wildly outperforming his perceived ability, so it's tough to gauge where he would fall.

 

[Akrapovince]

I don't think there is a way to do that with analytics. His analytics just say he's been playing amazingly well this year, but I don't think analytics are that predicative of future success, especially not in such a small sample size.

It's why I think it's tough to put a valuation here. He's a player that's wildly outperforming his perceived ability, so it's tough to gauge where he would fall.

At the same time I don’t think it’s inconceivable under certain circumstance for him to go from a 30 point player to a consistent 40-50 point guy, given he’a always putting up decent advanced stats.

One of those situations where I don’t the value that Pens will get can cover off what he could potentially be.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I doubt he'd be valued around the league close to what penguins would want to even think about trading him

I don't think i'd want the Rangers to give up either their 2nd or STL's 2nd for him as an example.

 

[3074326]

EGOD

Racking them up tonight.

 

[Jacob]

He’s carrying the offense more than anyone right now.

 

[Djp]

Buyer beware all sales final.

 

[inthe6ix]

Sell high

Regression is inevitable

 

[ThatsSoSlavin]

He’s worth more to the pens then what he’d get in a trade

 

[theicebox]

$10,000,000 per game.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Rodrigues is the reason Crosby has started playing well again lol!! Sid, give him half your salary!!

 

[DickSmehlik]

The bigger question should be are the Pens willing to pay him the significant raise that he is going to be asking for this off-season?

He's probably going to ask for what? $3.5 million a year.

 

[SundherDome]

The bigger question should be are the Pens willing to pay him the significant raise that he is going to be asking for this off-season?

He's probably going to ask for what? $3.5 million a year.

I think he is going to look at Fabbri deal and jump it 500k. 3 years 4.5 is reasonable. Trade value would be a late 2nd or third and mid range prospect

 

[orby]

If the Pens are planning on competing this year, which I think they are, I think they will probably just hold onto him and let some other team overpay him next year in free agency.

If they're sellers at the deadline, I can see him getting something like a mid round pick and a decent prospect. I don't think anyone is gonna give up a high pick for a guy who's looked like a 3rd/4th line tweener for years and has been playing above that level for like 30 games total.

 

[Zach716]

I think he is going to look at Fabbri deal and jump it 500k. 3 years 4.5 is reasonable.

That would immediately be a massive mistake by whoever signs him to that deal.

 

[SundherDome]

That would immediately be a massive mistake by whoever signs him to that deal.

Doesn't mean he won't ask for it and get it. He is currently showing he is a play driving 3C in his prime. 3 year deal locks him down through age 31

 

[Chainshot]

He tended to have excellent underlying metrics in Buffalo too, but he rarely had steady linemates/icetime. It could be that with the stability and ToI, he's getting production.