Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Oilers sign D Cody Ceci (4 years, $3.25M AAV)

[coopooter]

Ceci doesn't suck, he's an okay 3rd pairing Dman. $3.25 mill is too much for what he brings considering another $3 mill will need to be spent on the LHD sheltering him

Well he made Matheson look ok

 

[LTIR]

Forward group: better. Defense: worse. And goaltending: what the hell!

Defense is about the same. I would rather have Bouchard/Ceci in top 4 than Russell/Lagesson/Kulikov/Koekkoek/Jones or whatever else we tried behind Nurse at LD.

Goaltending is the exact same as last season. only difference is that Smith isn't injured to start the season

 

[LTIR]

In defence of Ottawa fans, we did see him on our team for a much longer period than Pittsburgh fans saw him on their team. In Ottawa, he was regularly in the top 4 playing about 22 minutes a night. That didn’t work. In a third pairing role, he would likely be better.

The way I see it, and I could be wrong, but it seems to me like Edmonton wants him in their top 4, which is a mistake. They gave him a 4 year deal at 3.25 per season. My guess is they see him as more than just a third pairing guy. Don’t come crying to me if the guy ends up being bad in Edmonton.

I think the Oilers added him to be the main shutdown Dman on the right side. I don't think he will be getting any offensive zone starts considering the other 2 RDs. He will be heavily used on PK, defensive starts and for closing out close games.

 

[Beerfish]

Defense is about the same. I would rather have Bouchard/Ceci in top 4 than Russell/Lagesson/Kulikov/Koekkoek/Jones or whatever else we tried behind Nurse at LD.

Goaltending is the exact same as last season. only difference is that Smith isn't injured to start the season

Smith is a year older and he massively overachieved last year. He has always been a hot and cold goalie and could go straight into the dumpster this year.

 

[NyQuil]

I think the Oilers added him to be the main shutdown Dman on the right side. I don't think he will be getting any offensive zone starts considering the other 2 RDs. He will be heavily used on PK, defensive starts and for closing out close games.

We tried to develop him into a top 4 shutdown guy and it failed, which is funny, because he was more of an offensive guy when he played for the Ottawa 67s.

Just miscast from the very beginning.

Prone to gaffes, indecisive when he has the puck on his stick, easily outmuscled.

Hopefully you get more of the Pittsburgh experience and less of the Ottawa experience.

But we played him as you're planning on deploying him.

 

[flying v 604]

Marginally better? Hyman and Foegele are both massive improvements on the players they're replacing in the top 9.

If anything the D core is marginally worse if not insignificantly different. Keith is an upgrade on anything they played on the 2nd LD position last year. Bear had a very up and down season and essentially gave bottom pairing quality play throughout the year, while Jones could barely stay in the lineup and struggled when he did. Larsson is a loss for sure, but his loss in the right side is not likely all that different than the gain of Keith on the left, a middle pair D in a middle pair D out. So essentially Edmonton lost a mid pair D, a bottom pair D, and a press box tweener and acquired a mid pair D and a bottom pair D.

The string of moves opens up a spot for Bouchard which should have been there for him last year. In his limited opportunities he played very well.

Since last season I have read a ton of posts talking about how with all the cap this summer this team would finally be free of all the shit Chia brought in and the team would vastly improve.
When you look at who's in who's out and who stayed I struggle to see how this summer can be considered a successful off-season.
The Oilers are still plagued with depth issues and the bottom six is still not very good.
Adding Hyman makes the top line potentially better but it's not like the top line wasn't already good and the same problems still exist where teams can still load up and focus on McDrai a guy like Hyman won't change that.
Foegle alone won't improve the 3rd line to the point where teams are forced to not focus on McDrai which should have been the top priority IMO.
Those adds simply don't change the narrative on how to beat the oilers.

Last year the oilers D was covered a lot by Smiths Vezina calibre of play, I remember them being 6th before Smith went off and covered the same issues that were plaguing them previously.
Losing Larson is a big loss and expecting Keith who struggled mightily with harder minutes is now being asked to do just that.

Having Barrie and Bouchard who both struggle 5 on 5 defensively while relying on the PP to get most of their points seems not only redundant but potentially a disaster.
I like Ceci but the book is out on him and it clearly shows to be effective he can't be in the top four and if someone gets hurt the depth isn't really there either.

The biggest fail tho is so far not upgrading the net situation.
Team's are adding quality backups because the Olympics makes this another compressed schedule and having a 1B is critical especially if your starter is 40 with an injury history.
Just my opinion, I may not be an oiler fan I would rather them be battling Vancouver then the flames, Vegas or LA.
The team's that the oilers will be battling with have had better summers so far especially Vancouver and LA. Vegas might slip without MAF but I also think they add Eichel. While the flames who I hope this the bed are still good as long as Marky can find his game again and their forwards put up 2019-20 seasons oppose to last season.
Since both wild cards should end up in the central I think the Oilers, flames and kings will fight for 3rd if Smith is decent, if he struggles this could end up being a gong show.

 

[chethejet]

Ceci played well especially early for the Pens. He is a good third pairing D man who declined a bit toward the end of last year. Oilers vastly over paid for him and using him as a 2nd pairing has failed in two other stops. If used appropriately, he is a good D man.

 

[ponder]

Obviously I’m missing something, because GMs keep signing him to be a top 4 dman, but … he just seems like a very mediocre 3rd pairing dman every time I watch him. And I’ve seen tonnes of him with the Leafs, and a decent amount with the Sens and Pens.

Slow, makes a lot of mistakes, and well below average both offensively and defensive. Kinda physical, but not THAT physical. What do GMs see in him?

 

[Bank Shot]

Ceci played well especially early for the Pens. He is a good third pairing D man who declined a bit toward the end of last year. Oilers vastly over paid for him and using him as a 2nd pairing has failed in two other stops. If used appropriately, he is a good D man.

How did it fail in Toronto and Pittsburgh?

He was among the best on the team in goals against in both cities. Isn't that what you want from your defensive d-men?

 

[serp]

Guy has one good year after he completely failed to live up to his big contract in Ottawa ( and later Toronto ) and instantly gets signed to another big deal with term. Same with Wennberg . This is just bizzarre. Sure he was good with the Pens . Doesn't mean you have to overpay the guy right away.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

He’s fine in your bottom pairing on a two year deal. But at that price and term Edmonton has obviously signed him as a second pairing guy. This is a very bad contract that will likely be bought out before it expires.

 

[Starbuds]

Term is too long for an absolute question mark.

 

[Zybalto]

Obviously I’m missing something, because GMs keep signing him to be a top 4 dman, but … he just seems like a very mediocre 3rd pairing dman every time I watch him. And I’ve seen tonnes of him with the Leafs, and a decent amount with the Sens and Pens.

Slow, makes a lot of mistakes, and well below average both offensively and defensive. Kinda physical, but not THAT physical. What do GMs see in him?

Probably because over the last two years he has solid defensive underlying numbers, a great goals against/60 REL, really good penalty kill #1 pairing numbers and near the top of the league for fewest giveaways/60 among dmen. Once he put together some decent offensive numbers on the Pens, it all came together for him to get the contract he did.

We may never have seen a player whose stats dont reflect narratives in quite this way before.

His 5v5 points/60 last year was 13th in the league out of the 95 dmen with 800+ minutes. Thats really really good. Higher than guys like Rielly, Hamilton, Petry, Hughes, McAvoy and even Letang to lead the Pens.

Might just be a case of everything coming together for him but looking at those numbers, is anyone really surprised he got a decent contract?

 

[ponder]

Probably because over the last two years he has solid defensive underlying numbers, a great goals against/60 REL, really good penalty kill #1 pairing numbers and near the top of the league for fewest giveaways/60 among dmen. Once he put together some decent offensive numbers on the Pens, it all came together for him to get the contract he did.

We may never have seen a player whose stats dont reflect narratives in quite this way before.

His 5v5 points/60 last year was 13th in the league out of the 95 dmen with 800+ minutes. Thats really really good. Higher than guys like Rielly, Hamilton, Petry, Hughes, McAvoy and even Letang to lead the Pens.

Might just be a case of everything coming together for him but looking at those numbers, is anyone really surprised he got a decent contract?

He fails the eye test SO brutally though. Bad skater, gets walked on D a lot, makes a tonne of mistakes positioning wise, and rarely makes an impressive play.

I remember when the Leafs got him, I thought “his underlying numbers are OK, I’ll bet Sens fans are just being unreasonable and he’ll be fine for us.” But watching him play more or less every Leafs game, I quickly changed my mind - he’s just so clearly weak out there.

Also, last year we replaced Ceci/Barrie with Brodie/Bogo, while keeping the rest the same (Rielly, Muzzin, Holl, Dermott, Sandin). Our D improved massively, we went from being very porous/terrible (26th in GA/GP) to being a strong defensive team (7th in GA/GP). That’s because both Ceci and Barrie are liabilities in their own end IMO.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

The consensus seems to be from fans of teams where he has played is that he is fine as a bottom pairing guy but struggles when he moves up the lineup. At the price and term the Oilers gave him you'd have to think that the plan is to play him in the top 4 where he has consistently struggled.

 

[Zybalto]

He fails the eye test SO brutally though. Bad skater, gets walked on D a lot, makes a tonne of mistakes positioning wise, and rarely makes an impressive play.

I remember when the Leafs got him, I thought “his underlying numbers are OK, I’ll bet Sens fans are just being unreasonable and he’ll be fine for us.” But watching him play more or less every Leafs game, I quickly changed my mind - he’s just so clearly weak out there.

Also, last year we replaced Ceci/Barrie with Brodie/Bogo, while keeping the rest the same (Rielly, Muzzin, Holl, Dermott, Sandin). Our D improved massively, we went from being very porous/terrible (26th in GA/GP) to being a strong defensive team (7th in GA/GP). That’s because both Ceci and Barrie are liabilities in their own end IMO.

Brodie>Barrie and Campbell>Andersen/Hutch are the main reason our GA went down.......well that and Keefe>Babcock. The Keefe thing combined with picking up Campbell the most obvious improvement as Andersen's play had completely fallen off and he wasnt covering up the awful underlying defensive numbers under Babcock.

If you are talking goals against though, Ceci had a better goals against/60 than Bogo this year (Leading all Pens Dmen after leading all Leafs dmen the year before) on a worse defensive team and almost the best Goals against REL in the league while on the Leafs when he was here playing FAR harder minutes than Bogo. Ceci was also on arguably the best PK pairing in the league with Muzzin in his time with the Leafs.

For a guy considered such a liability in his own end, other teams sure have a difficult time scoring goals (and creating high danger chances) when he is on the ice the last couple years. Lets give it another year before we pass judgement I guess but if he continues the same trajectory he is on, the Oilers are going to be very happy with that contract, especially if he can continue to produce 5v5 points.

 

[chethejet]

I liked him and wanted the Pens to sign him if the price was right. It wasn't. Pens know his game and they were in my camp as to a nice D man but not a D man that is a 20 to 22 minute guy. If the Oilers are paying him to play up, then that is a risk for sure. But he was pretty good with the puck and his size was helpful.

 

[Mr Positive]

The issue seems to be how people see him as 2nd pairing vs 3rd pairing. There is an in between. He can be on the 3rd pairing in terms of even strength TOI. But, he can be on every PK, and that can make him top 4 in total TOI. I doubt he'd get much of a look on the PP.

I'm guessing the Oilers will blend their pairings a lot depending on the situation. Nurse will be far and away the top EV/TOI Dman by far, with time on special teams as well, and the rest will be quite even except Bouchard, who will be sheltered.

I guess it amounts to how you value different contributions. He might not be top 4 in EV TOI but he will be used more than your typical depth Dman

 

[Bounces R Way]

For a guy considered such a liability in his own end, other teams sure have a difficult time scoring goals (and creating high danger chances) when he is on the ice the last couple years.

Ceci outside of the 1 year with the Penguins has consistently been among the worst dmen in the league for HDCF%. Barrie, Keith, and Russell are also all poor in this stat and if the Oilers plan on rolling them all out with regularity that would make for a long season for Mike Smith. Maybe Tippett's shell system helps mask these problems but all these guys struggle getting the puck out.

 

[Zybalto]

Ceci outside of the 1 year with the Penguins has consistently been among the worst dmen in the league for HDCF%. Barrie, Keith, and Russell are also all poor in this stat and if the Oilers plan on rolling them all out with regularity that would make for a long season for Mike Smith. Maybe Tippett's shell system helps mask these problems but all these guys struggle getting the puck out.

He actually led the Leafs D in HDCF% rating primarily due to his extremely good ability to prevent High Danger chances while on the ice (and he was used all year with Muzzin to close out games)


It was probably that combined with his extremely stingy giveaway totals that led him to having such a solid goals against/60.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

He fails the eye test SO brutally though. Bad skater, gets walked on D a lot, makes a tonne of mistakes positioning wise, and rarely makes an impressive play.

I remember when the Leafs got him, I thought “his underlying numbers are OK, I’ll bet Sens fans are just being unreasonable and he’ll be fine for us.” But watching him play more or less every Leafs game, I quickly changed my mind - he’s just so clearly weak out there.

Also, last year we replaced Ceci/Barrie with Brodie/Bogo, while keeping the rest the same (Rielly, Muzzin, Holl, Dermott, Sandin). Our D improved massively, we went from being very porous/terrible (26th in GA/GP) to being a strong defensive team (7th in GA/GP). That’s because both Ceci and Barrie are liabilities in their own end IMO.

Campbell helped in that regard as well and IMO your team played a lot better team defense than they have in years past. That said I'm not sure what to expect from Ceci. How would you compare him defensively to Barrie based on your viewings of both?

 

[ponder]

Campbell helped in that regard as well and IMO your team played a lot better team defense than they have in years past. That said I'm not sure what to expect from Ceci. How would you compare him defensively to Barrie based on your viewings of both?

True, Campbell certainly helped, as did coaching. I do personally feel Barrie/Ceci for Brodie/Bogo was the biggest difference, though. They were our two weakest defensively, replacing them with a legit defensive stud (Brodie) and a strong defensive bottom pairing dman (Bogo) made a massive impact.

Ceci is certainly better defensively than Barrie, but Barrie is VERY weak. I’d peg Barrie as bottom 10ish defensively in the league, while I’d peg Ceci as more solidly below average defensively.

Of dmen who’ve played on both the Leafs and Oilers semi-recently, I’d compare Ceci more to Marincin. A rich man’s Marincin - worse defensively than Marincin, but better offensively and at moving the puck. Marincin is legit useless with the puck, basically does nothing but ice it, while Ceci is more “meh.” But they’re sort of similar in that they’re big dmen who are just sort of there, they can eat up minutes without hurting you too bad, but don’t do much to help you win.

I view Ceci as a perfectly fine bottom pairing dman, a bit below average at basically everything, but not legit bad at anything. Not a STRONG bottom pairing dman, like some we’ve had recently (Dermott and Bogo), but fine. I think it’s mainly an issue when he plays in your top 4 - you want your top 4 full of guys making a very clear positive impact, and that’s not Ceci.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

True, Campbell certainly helped, as did coaching. I do personally feel Barrie/Ceci for Brodie/Bogo was the biggest difference, though. They were our two weakest defensively, replacing them with a legit defensive stud (Brodie) and a strong defensive bottom pairing dman (Bogo) made a massive impact.

Ceci is certainly better defensively than Barrie, but Barrie is VERY weak. I’d peg Barrie as bottom 10ish defensively in the league, while I’d peg Ceci as more solidly below average defensively.

Of dmen who’ve played on both the Leafs and Oilers semi-recently, I’d compare Ceci more to Marincin. A rich man’s Marincin - worse defensively than Marincin, but better offensively and at moving the puck. Marincin is legit useless with the puck, basically does nothing but ice it, while Ceci is more “meh.” But they’re sort of similar in that they’re big dmen who are just sort of there, they can eat up minutes without hurting you too bad, but don’t do much to help you win.

I view Ceci as a perfectly fine bottom pairing dman, a bit below average at basically everything, but not legit bad at anything. Not a STRONG bottom pairing dman, like some we’ve had recently (Dermott and Bogo), but fine. I think it’s mainly an issue when he plays in your top 4 - you want your top 4 full of guys making a very clear positive impact, and that’s not Ceci.

Thanks, I'm hoping that he takes a step forward during this contract. IMO Barrie is fine with Nurse at least in the regular season. I agree though that he is not very strong defensively and that is why he didn't get a massive offer elsewhere this offseason. You take the good with the bad with Barrie. I think that Holland views Ceci as someone that fits into our current cap situation, is entering the prime of his career and a stop gap until Bouchard is ready for 2nd pairing duties. I'm not sure if Ceci stays the full 4 seasons, but for now he is a placeholder and I'm trying not to have any expectations of him as a player so that I don't get down on him if he has a slow start to his Oilers career.

 

[LTIR]

The consensus seems to be from fans of teams where he has played is that he is fine as a bottom pairing guy but struggles when he moves up the lineup. At the price and term the Oilers gave him you'd have to think that the plan is to play him in the top 4 where he has consistently struggled.

The plan is to have him hold the fort til Bouchard is ready for top 4 and eventually the top pairing.

Bouchard will start on 3rd pairing at ES and should start getting PP time. He will move his way up the chain. Having said that there is no question that Ceci is overpaid in amount and term... Hopefully it wasn't a panic move due to Larsson departure

 

[Mr Positive]

The plan is to have him hold the fort til Bouchard is ready for top 4 and eventually the top pairing.

Bouchard will start on 3rd pairing at ES and should start getting PP time. He will move his way up the chain. Having said that there is no question that Ceci is overpaid in amount and term... Hopefully it wasn't a panic move due to Larsson departure

Even if it were a panic move, it was a decent gamble. We needed someone who could approximate Larsson's role. Options were limited. Ceci has at least played in the top 4 on teams. Hes also young enough that he could still learn and progress. A lot of dmen dont hit their prime until 26-28 years old.