Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Kris Russell (1 year, $3.1M)

[zar]

Decent signing, only costs slightly more cap space than I would have hoped. I was thinking $2.5. Russell will be useful on the PK and be a good 3rd pairing guy that can fill in on the 2nd pairing if injuries occur.

I would go something like this...
Klefbom-Larsson
Davidson-Sekera
Russell-Fayne or Nurse-Russell

 

[Psychoil]

How did a player who went unsigned all summer get a $3.1M deal right before the season starts? Could they really not have negotiated down? What were his alternatives at this point?

bruh......it's a one year deal, relax. And there were 8 other teams that wanted him too. Think about it first

 

[Psychoil]

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-blocks-statistics/2015/
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-blocks-statistics/2014/
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-blocks-statistics/2013/

oh so by those charts, karl alzner is a terrible defensemen because he blocks so many shots. Secondly, you have no proof of causation. You have a correlation. You've correlated Russell's skill level with his blocked shots, but that doesn't mean his skill level is a cause and his blocking shots is the effect.

 

[aufheben]

oh so by those charts, karl alzner is a terrible defensemen because he blocks so many shots. Secondly, you have no proof of causation. You have a correlation. You've correlated Russell's skill level with his blocked shots, but that doesn't mean his skill level is a cause and his blocking shots is the effect.

All I said is the other team shoots a lot when he's on the ice. It's a fact.

 

[SI90]

I don't see how anyone can say this is not a good signing. Russell is a legit NHL defenseman, a vet, and only signed for 1 year. If Reinhart would have been ready or shown he was ready it would
Have been his spot.

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

I don't see how anyone can say this is not a good signing.

Well prepare to be amazed by eight pages of people saying that. Granted, few are saying much more- and apparently according to one guru Russell lacks even the most basic skills required to play in the NHL besides blocking shots- but I suppose that's to be expected when it comes to the Oilers.

 

[93LEAFS]

oh so by those charts, karl alzner is a terrible defensemen because he blocks so many shots. Secondly, you have no proof of causation. You have a correlation. You've correlated Russell's skill level with his blocked shots, but that doesn't mean his skill level is a cause and his blocking shots is the effect.

General CA/60 and FA/60 would show this. Alzner also tends to start in the defensive-zone more than Russell does.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...000&teamid=0&type=corsi&sort=A60&sortdir=DESC

Over the last 3 years, him and Dennis Wiseman have the worst CA/60 of any D in the league with over 1000 minutes played, and its not like other D who tend to generate shots back to balance it out.

 

[WesMcCauley]

oh so by those charts, karl alzner is a terrible defensemen because he blocks so many shots. Secondly, you have no proof of causation. You have a correlation. You've correlated Russell's skill level with his blocked shots, but that doesn't mean his skill level is a cause and his blocking shots is the effect.

Its pretty proven and well known by now that if you block alot of shots, you are usually in alot of trouble....

 

[lawrence]

Poor dude, goes from a bad team, to a contending team, now back to another bad team, poor dude. He was thinking he could score a 5 million dollar contract for 5 years or something.

Gets picked up by one of the worst teams.

 

[McFlyingV]

Enjoy being trapped in your own zone some more

Can't be any worse at getting the puck out than Fayne or Gryba, so your statement is incorrect.

 

[zar]

Poor dude, goes from a bad team, to a contending team, now back to another bad team, poor dude. He was thinking he could score a 5 million dollar contract for 5 years or something.

Gets picked up by one of the worst teams.

True. He's probably just relieved he won't have to sign with the "soon to be black hole of the NHL", the Canucks.

 

[plikestechno]

Anyone that watched the Oilers in preseason knows why this signing was made.

Russell isn't great but he's better than a lot of guys here. They need someone that can make a decent first pass and remotely be able to organize a power play.

Russell's just ok but it makes us better.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Good move but not enough

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

Without McDavid this current team is even worse imo. Chiarelli shouldn't get credit for drafting him.

This^. The kid has showed all the potential in the world, but if he doesnt turn out to be Crosby v2, the Oilers have moved backwards.

A ton riding on him and hes only played 45 career games.

 

[McFlyingV]

This^. The kid has showed all the potential in the world, but if he doesnt turn out to be Crosby v2, the Oilers have moved backwards.

A ton riding on him and hes only played 45 career games.

If you can say that with a straight face after looking at the roster differences that were posted from the end of the 2015 season just before Chia took over, until now, then I'm not sure if I should be impressed with your poker face or disappointed at your ability to evaluate talent.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

If you can say that with a straight face after looking at the roster differences that were posted from the end of the 2015 season just before Chia took over, until now, then I'm not sure if I should be impressed with your poker face or disappointed at your ability to evaluate talent.

Without knocking the roster, I would neither give Chia too much credit nor claim he hasn't made some tough decisions that needed to be made. Adding a no-brainer pick, McDavid, and Draisaitl moving into the lineup, without question, strengthened the roster--but, neither were the result of shrewd management. Signing Lucic, acquiring Talbot, and picking up Maroon were all solid moves. And, while not the most popular opinion, the Hall for Larsson trade definitely addressed a position of weakness.

 

[NathanCreek]

Guess you ignored the link to the possession numbers I posted by linking his hockey reference page. He is a terrible possession player. Even if you use Fenwick he is a bad player which ignores blocked shots.

As you have mentioned, Russell, for various reasons, often gets hemmed in to his own zone for extended periods of time. This is in part what leads to his high shot blocking numbers. It is however important to note that other similarly poor possession players do not block nearly the amount of shots that Russell does. Russell is a very good shot blocker whose numbers are further inflated by his poor possession stats.

Furthermore, as has been mentioned on several hockey blogs, shots that occur on rush chances have a higher Sh% than those that do not. I believe the difference is something like 9% vs. 7% percent. There is a negative correlation between sustained zone time and shooting percentage likely because sustained zone time allows defenders to get into position to limit quality shots.

My question to you is this: is it not possible that Russell's poor possession stats are due to him getting hemmed in to his own zone for extended periods of time, and as such many of the shots he faces are of a lower quality than would be normal for most defensemen?

I ask this because Russel has averaged a 50.8 GF% over the past four seasons while his teammates have averaged a 47.1 GF% without him. GF% is a greater indicator of future GF% over a three year sample than CF%.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Russell just returned a 2nd and a coupe decent prospects a few months ago at the deadline. If he has a decent season but doesn't factor into the long term plans I don't see why he couldn't return at least a 2nd again. Dmen like him are always in demand at the trade deadline.

 

[Bouboumaster]

I would go something like this...
Klefbom-Larsson
Davidson-Sekera
Russell-Fayne or Nurse-Russell

Man... That's not a great D.

At least, it's better than when Chia took control, I guess.

He's not good at that trade thing, but he can at least spot a problem. xD

 

[Psychoil]

Lol ok so then Karl alzner is a terrible defensemen . Sorry cap fans. He blocks alot of shots so that means he's in his end all game. Who would of thought :/

 

[aufheben]

Lol ok so then Karl alzner is a terrible defensemen . Sorry cap fans. He blocks alot of shots so that means he's in his end all game. Who would of thought :/

It means he faces a lot of shots which is what I said. Tanev blocked a lot of shots too, the difference is the Canucks face way less shots when Tanev is on the ice which is not the case for Kris Russell. Russell's shot-attempt against/60 relative to his team over the last 3 years is 139 out of 140, the only defenseman worse who played that much is Dan Girardi.

 

[oilerbear]

yeildE=HydroF;122834279]Good signing. Russell isn't great, but he would be an improvement on the bottom pair at least. One year deal is perfect. Helps the team this season and lets EDM re-evaluate next year when other better options may be available and prospects have had another year of development.[/QUOTE]

That would be an opinion!

Opinin ; Def: Point of view not based on facts or knowledge.

No for the facts that allow us to draw a conclusion on th best situation for Russell the Dman.

75% of goals are scored from HSCA.

Corsi against is from opposition counter attack off of forwards and offensive dmen:
1. Failed zone entry
2. failed dump in retrieval
3. failed corsi path (blocks and misses)
poor pocession forward/ Offensive Dmen yield high Corsi Against.
the worst are Dmen that abandon defensive path of HSCA.
it forces that Dman to defnd by themselsves or with a forward.

you see CA/60 as areflection of pocession quality of the forwards.
you wil see the the % of shots from corsi as a reflection of Dman,s ability.
you will see off dmen often having poor HSCA defence resulting in high HSCA shot counts and GA.

Russell is one of the 10 best Dmen at reducing shots from corsi.
depending on d partner 40 to 60% reduction.

He has played viable minutes with 13 Dmen:

Crap pocession forwards and top 60 GA in bold

Top 40 HSCA D:
Player - CA/60 - SA/60 - %SA per corsi - GA/60
Polak - 48.98 - 24.34 - 49.7% - 1.95
Methot - 49.79 - 23.79 - 47.7% - 1.68
Stralman - 50.30 - 29.70 - 59.0% - 1.97
Brodie - 63.16 - 29.77 - 47.1% - 2.10
Tyutin - 58.17 - 24.71 - 42.4% - 1.88

top 80 HSCA D:
SHattenkirk - 50.32 - 25.42 - 50.5% - 1.04
Giordano - 63.61 - 27.51 - 43.2% - 1.72
Pietrangelo - 56.98 - 38.70 - 67.9% - 1.08
Allowed large perimeter shot count to shattenkirks side but low HSCA shot penetration for both D.

Bottom 60 HSCA D:
Engeland - 70.26 - 39.35 - 56.0% - 2.20
above average GA and shot reduction from one of the worst forward driven corsi against faced.

Bottom 20 HSCA D:
these D partners were a runway to the HSCA.
you will see an unusually high GA cause the D partners are awful defenders of HSCA.
A. Johnson - 49.04 - 26.68 - 54.4% - 4.33
Goligoski - 65.40 - 25.62 - 39.2% - 5.12
he bailed his forwards 39.2% shots but his d was awful.
Wiedman - 66.88 - 32.35 - 48.4% - 2.61
Hamilton - 62.03 - 30.09 - 48.5% - 2.61

he gets top 60 GA when playing with top 120 HSCA dmen.
his forwards benefit from a dman that reduces SA and HSCA even though they are turnover machines.
those same forwards receive a much higher % of counter attack retrieval from his elite SA/corsi rates.

he is not a HSCA anchor like:
Brodie; Weber; Davidson; Larsson; Muzzin; Doughty; Hjarlmasson.

best suited with 2nd or third comp and above average HSCA D.

 

[oilerbear]

Man... That's not a great D.

At least, it's better than when Chia took control, I guess.

He's not good at that trade thing, but he can at least spot a problem. xD

You are sooooo full of Opinion!

Opinion; Def: Point of view not based on facts or Knowledge.

Now for some facts:
Dmen drag down offence.
the best in the game are below average producers of offence.

Offensive Dmen who try to drive offence expose the HSCA and usaully have #6 or # 7 D HSCA shot rates and goals against results.

Your Dmen establish the goals needed by your forwards to be playoff competitive.

Most of the offensive Dmen have 40 to zero forwards that can generate GF needed to be playoff competitive. you need a line of 3 6M+ cap hit forwards.

were as the best in the game the last 2 years
Larsson: 331 forwards can generate a Playoff GF with his GA Defence.
A line of Mackenzie - D. moore - Dorsett can generate enough GF.

So while the hockey world thinks the 17 dmen in the top 300 goal scorers is huge to goal differential in a game.

I am not in that group.

As the origionator of the HSCA theory!

You want your Dmen to get the forwards the puck ASAP.

Dmen who can retrieve dump ins/ Block shots/ Force misses and keep the HSCA shot count down are the anchors for cup winners when paired with a top 10 HSCA save% goalie.

2016 PIT: Lovejoy; Doumulin; Cole and #2 HSCA Save% start to career Murray

2015 CHI: Hjarlmasson; Oduya; Keith and Crawford #10 HSCA goalie

2014: Muzzin; Doughty; Voynov; Martinez ; Mitchell; Greene quick not a top 10 goalie but faced the lowest HSCA shot rates since brodeur with new jersey.

2013: Hjarlmasson; Oduya; Roszival Crawford

2012; Scuderi; Doughty; Voynov; Martinez; Mitchell; Greene no top 10 HSCA goalie.

2011: Chara; Seidenberg; Ference; Boychuk Thomas top 5 HSCA save% goalie.

2010: Hjarlmasson; Campbell; Sopel; Seabrook; Niemi top 10 HSCA save% goalie.

Oilers D:
Larsson top 10 HSCA D; #1 GA D; #12 PKGA D
Top 50 EVA D getting forwards the puck.

Davidson top 30 HSCA d; Top 30 EVGA D; top 30 PKGA d.
he and Larsson are 2 of the 5 d in the game top 30 HSCA; EVGA; PKGA


Klefbom top 60 HSCA d; top 50 Sa/60 d; top 5 PKGA D
top 30 EVA d; getting the forwards the puck

Sekera is a bottom 40 HSCA d facing first comp in career.
with Davidson and Klef hurt he faced 1sts all year.
top 100 EVA/60 D

Sekera facing 2nd comp or lower top 10 HSCA D; top 40 GA D.
Top 40 EVA D;

Russell suited to defend HSCA area. and create counter attack situation for forwards.

 

[soliak]

Cannot overstate how relieved I am the Flames didn't resign him, although it would of been fantastic player management by Trev....if he was any good.

Good luck Oilers.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-blocks-statistics/2015/
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-blocks-statistics/2014/
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-blocks-statistics/2013/

I asked for a link to prove your ridiculous overstatement on how many shots get by, not proof that he's an elite shot blocker.

Oilers gonna Oil.

This somes up HF mains. Oilers make a good deal, people want to come here and complain about them, have nothing legitimate to complain about, so throw out this sort of nonsense.

This is a good deal for Edmonton. Not one reasonable argument in this entire thread to suggest otherwise. "Oilers gonna Oil" essentially in the words of everyone against this deal.