Eastern Conference playoff picture: Leafs HOST Tampa Bay

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By outplaying them 5v5 and special teams, we're dominant enough 5v5 to win 4/7 with average goaltending.
Last year Jack Campbell posted 7 games 3-4-0 record with 1.81 GAA and .934 sv% and Leafs lost in 7 games and lost.

Not sure how your math works that you can win a series when the opposition goalie surrenders less GA and better sv% stats and win 4 of 7 games.

Leafs have the weakest goaltending of all 4 of the Atlantic teams and surrender the most goals against. Goaltending can steal a series with a hot goalie, but expecting to win with average goaltending by outscoring better goaltending is Russian roulette.

Florida for example have GF: 258 & GA: 183 GA vs Leafs GF: 232 GA: 191 ..

Florida scores more goals for and surrender less goals against, so Leafs winning a series with just averaging goaltending against a team like that doesn't suggest winning.
 
Didn't your pre-season prediction have the Leafs and Habs battling for the last playoff spot?
NO

Atlantic

1) Tampa Bay
2) Boston
3) Toronto/Florida
4) Florida/Toronto.

With the Leafs either finishing 3rd or in a WC spot if they fall to 4th, and then determined by the finishing of the Metro teams.

Metro

1) Carolina
2) Pittsburgh
3) Washington
4) NYI, NYR or Philly
 
Last year Jack Campbell posted 7 games 3-4-0 record with 1.81 GAA and .934 sv% and Leafs lost in 7 games and lost.

Not sure how your math works that you can win a series when the opposition goalie surrenders less GA and better sv% stats and win 4 of 7 games.

Leafs have the weakest goaltending of all 4 of the Atlantic teams and surrender the most goals against. Goaltending can steal a series with a hot goalie, but expecting to win with average goaltending by outscoring better goaltending is Russian roulette.

Florida for example have GF: 258 & GA: 183 GA vs Leafs GF: 232 GA: 191 ..

Florida scores more goals for and surrender less goals against, so Leafs winning a series with just averaging goaltending against a team like that doesn't suggest winning.
Last year Sandin threw 2 games, Dermott threw a game and Galchenyuk threw a game. We were the significantly better team. We lost because our skaters literally made 4 players that threw 4 games.

Not sure how you came to the conclusion that Vasilevsky is absolutely guaranteed to post a 1.90 GAA average and .920+ svp. You do realize our skaters also determine what his numbers look like right ? They have to solve Matthews/Marner and co. or did you forget about them ? Matthews is pacing for 60+ goals AGAIN, how do you expect Vasilevsky to stop him when he's scoring at such a ridiculous rate ? Seems like you're all over Tampa and forget that our players also determine how the series plays out. My math works out like this, if Matthews/Marner are scoring at the rate they are scoring, Vasilevsky will have much worse numbers than 1.900 GAA and .927 svp

Also if we significantly outshoot/out possess them, the svp matters less. They can have 2 goals on 10 shots, we can have 3 goals on 40 shots. Which goalies numbers are better ? Which goalie won the game ? #Math :sarcasm:

If Soup allows 20 goals in 1 game, and records 4 consecutive shutouts, his GAA will be atrocious, but he gets 4 shut outs and wins. #Math :sarcasm:

As you can see math isn't that hard, you just came to our own pre-determined conclusions of what the svp, gaa etc. will be for Tampa for whatever reason.

Also if we get average goaltending our gaa/svp will be significantly higher, because frankly the goals against us have been absolute dog shit goals pretty much the entire year. An average goalie easily stops those and probably ends up with 4-5 shutouts since January.
 
Not sure how you came to the conclusion that Vasilevsky is absolutely guaranteed to post a 1.90 GAA average and .920+ svp. You do realize our skaters also determine what his numbers look like right ? They have to solve Matthews/Marner and co. or did you forget about them ? Matthews is pacing for 60+ goals AGAIN, how do you expect Vasilevsky to stop him when he's scoring at such a ridiculous rate ? Seems like you're all over Tampa and forget that our players also determine how the series plays out. My math works out like this, if Matthews/Marner are scoring at the rate they are scoring, Vasilevsky will have much worse numbers than 1.900 GAA and .927 svp
This is very true. It's also true that soooooooooooooooo many people keep saying we lost because we got out-goalied. Year after year, our stars get stopped by a hot goalie so maybe it's not so crazy to think it could happen again.

Anyhow, IMHO you're right - if our stars are on their game then they should get their share of goals. And that's part of the reason we've been losing in the playoffs, our stars were not on their game and made the opposing goalies look better than they really were.

We should not be relying on our goalies to win games for us. They need play OK, just OK and that should be enough. Our stars get all the money so it's on them to win for us.
 
Aren't we always yet somehow manage to lose year after year
Yes. Galchenyuk sending them on a 2 on 0 in OT, Dermott turning it over to 1 forechecker when he literally had 3 players for support and an easy out up the boards again in OT, Sandin losing a foot race while having like a 25 foot head start. All inexcusable plays.



 
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Yes. Galchenyuk sending them on a 2 on 0 in OT, Dermott turning it over to 1 forechecker when he literally had 3 players for support and an easy out up the boards, Sandin losing a foot race while having like a 25 foot head start. All inexcusable plays.
How about shutting our number #1 line down and the boys appearing to have an effort level that would indicate they were going to accept losing? How about the coach calling the team fragile and players themselves again saying they're too easy to play against?

The excuses around here and pointing at other teams losing streaks as a "see it happens to TB too". Noone is like the Leafs. Noone has failed like the Leafs
 
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Yes. Galchenyuk sending them on a 2 on 0 in OT, Dermott turning it over to 1 forechecker when he literally had 3 players for support and an easy out up the boards, Sandin losing a foot race while having like a 25 foot head start. All inexcusable plays.
Not really understanding the hate Gally gets. He was one of best players the whole series.

I was more upset with Marner... and Dermott for their play during the series.
 
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This is very true. It's also true that soooooooooooooooo many people keep saying we lost because we got out-goalied. Year after year, our stars get stopped by a hot goalie so maybe it's not so crazy to think it could happen again.

Anyhow, IMHO you're right - if our stars are on their game then they should get their share of goals. And that's part of the reason we've been losing in the playoffs, our stars were not on their game and made the opposing goalies look better than they really were.

We should not be relying on our goalies to win games for us. They need play OK, just OK and that should be enough. Our stars get all the money so it's on them to win for us.
Every year we make goalie after goalie look good in the play offs with our perimeter shots and lack of grit.
Scrums around the net are needed every whistle. Lets GO!
 
Would prefer to play the B's in the first round.

Not only because I believe we match up better against them than TB/FLA, but would like to exorcise the first round demons since they were the culprits that started this curse back in 2013 with our Game 7 choke.

It would be truly cathartic to make it to the final eight at their expense.
 
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Not really understanding the hate Gally gets. He was one of best players the whole series.

I was more upset with Marner... and Dermott for their play during the series.
I'm not hating on Gally, he was great but that's just a fact. He legit sent the Habs on a 2 on 0, on what should've been a routine dump in play.
 
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How about shutting our number #1 line down and the boys appearing to have an effort level that would indicate they were going to accept losing? How about the coach calling the team fragile and players themselves again saying they're too easy to play against?

The excuses around here and pointing at other teams losing streaks as a "see it happens to TB too". Noone is like the Leafs. Noone has failed like the Leafs
Those still don't excuse the horrible plays Dermott/Galchenyuk/Sandin made. Those are separate issues, but these plays they made literally directly led to the GWG. And all of them were routine plays kids in jr hockey make.
 
Last year Sandin threw 2 games, Dermott threw a game and Galchenyuk threw a game. We were the significantly better team. We lost because our skaters literally made 4 players that threw 4 games.

Not sure how you came to the conclusion that Vasilevsky is absolutely guaranteed to post a 1.90 GAA average and .920+ svp. You do realize our skaters also determine what his numbers look like right ? They have to solve Matthews/Marner and co. or did you forget about them ? Matthews is pacing for 60+ goals AGAIN, how do you expect Vasilevsky to stop him when he's scoring at such a ridiculous rate ? Seems like you're all over Tampa and forget that our players also determine how the series plays out. My math works out like this, if Matthews/Marner are scoring at the rate they are scoring, Vasilevsky will have much worse numbers than 1.900 GAA and .927 svp

Also if we significantly outshoot/out possess them, the svp matters less. They can have 2 goals on 10 shots, we can have 3 goals on 40 shots. Which goalies numbers are better ? Which goalie won the game ? #Math :sarcasm:

If Soup allows 20 goals in 1 game, and records 4 consecutive shutouts, his GAA will be atrocious, but he gets 4 shut outs and wins. #Math :sarcasm:

As you can see math isn't that hard, you just came to our own pre-determined conclusions of what the svp, gaa etc. will be for Tampa for whatever reason.

Also if we get average goaltending our gaa/svp will be significantly higher, because frankly the goals against us have been absolute dog shit goals pretty much the entire year. An average goalie easily stops those and probably ends up with 4-5 shutouts since January.
I didn't make up those Vas numbers those are his actual stats from the 2020 and 2021 playoffs which TB hoisted the Cup,

Don't forget it still took Kucherov 32 points in 23 games and Point 14 goals and 24 points finishing 1 & 2 in playoff scoring in addition to Vas numbers in net in which he was the Conn Smythe playoff MVP Trophy winner in .

What you are suggesting for Leafs to score lots while having average goaltending, is that the opposition goaltending will be average or less as well. Strong opposition goaltending means less Leafs goals for, and with average goaltending themselves it meas opposition are also scoring a fair amount for a goalie to try and win with .910 sv% consistently.
 
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FWIW: Andrei Vasilevskiy posted a 1.90 GAA and .937 sv% on the way to Tampa Bays Cup run last year and a 1.90 GAA and .927 sv% the previous year.

If Leafs play Tampa Bay and Vas performs as usual then how can the Leafs win with average goaltending when the opposition goalie outperforms them?
Fold the team!
 
Through Jan 15th when Muzzin went down and whenever shortly thereafter that Jack Campbell suffered his rib injury he played through a while before being shutdown, through those first 35 games the Leafs were literally first in the Atlantic in goals against per game.

Since then the Leafs have made two acquisitions that dramatically improve their ability to weather not having Muzzin available: Lyubushkin and Gio. And make them even better when everyone is back

I think we are gonna be fine.

Fwiw, Florida and Boston have their own goaltending question marks. If Campbell is healthy and playing even somewhat approaching the level he did in Oct Nov, then the only team better than us between the pipes in our division is Tampa with Vasi
 
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I didn't make up those Vas numbers those are his actual stats from the 2020 and 2021 playoffs which TB hoisted the Cup,

What you are suggesting for Leafs to score lots while having average goaltending, is that the opposition goaltending will be average or less as well. Strong oppositing goaltending means less Leafs goals for, and with average goaltending themselves it meas opposition are also scoring a fair amount for a goalie to try and win with .910 sv% consistently.
Yes those are his numbers from the last 2 years, nothing suggests those will be his numbers this year or against Toronto.

What I'm suggesting is for the Leafs to continue to dominate 5v5 and on the special teams just get average goaltending. That's enough to beat any team in the league. Strong opposing goalie means less goals for the leafs, and likewise strong forwards and special teams means more goals for the leafs. The leafs don't just have to beat Vasi, Vasi has to beat Matthews and company.

Tampa has never played against a team with as much offence as us. Florida is better offensively this year, but they were not this good last year. I'm not saying it's a foregone conclusion that we'd win, and I'm not suggesting it's an easy series. But this team has checked off every single box except consistent goaltending.
 
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It's going to happen sooner or later. Still would anyone be shocked if the universe conspired to give us Boston?
We've gone two years without it...it's practically a fresh matchup at this point! :sarcasm: ;)

Tampa still does have a game in hand on Boston and could pass them with a win (not sure how a tiebreaker plays out at the moment). Toronto having home ice advantage in a playoff series against Boston would be a new wrinkle as well.
 
FWIW: Andrei Vasilevskiy posted a 1.90 GAA and .937 sv% on the way to Tampa Bays Cup run last year and a 1.90 GAA and .927 sv% the previous year.

If Leafs play Tampa Bay and Vas performs as usual then how can the Leafs win with average goaltending when the opposition goalie outperforms them?

Almost as good as Campbell's 1.81gaa and .934sv% in the playoffs.
 
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Through Jan 15th when Muzzin went down and whenever shortly thereafter that Jack Campbell suffered his rib injury he played through a while before being shutdown, through those first 35 games the Leafs were literally first in the Atlantic in goals against per game.

Since then the Leafs have made two acquisitions that dramatically improve their ability to weather not having Muzzin available: Lyubushkin and Gio. And make them even better when everyone is back

I think we are gonna be fine.

Fwiw, Florida and Boston have their own goaltending question marks. If Campbell is healthy and playing even somewhat approaching the level he did in Oct Nov, then the only team better than us between the pipes in our division is Tampa with Vasi
Swayman looks hot right now, and Ulmark is the backup they will be dangerous if he keeps it up.
 
Yes. Galchenyuk sending them on a 2 on 0 in OT, Dermott turning it over to 1 forechecker when he literally had 3 players for support and an easy out up the boards again in OT, Sandin losing a foot race while having like a 25 foot head start. All inexcusable plays.




Regardless, leafs wouldn't be able to beat jets & VGK
 
Aren't we always yet somehow manage to lose year after year
Nope, last year was the first time they’d be considered heavy favourites. The series between Boston & washington they were definite underdogs and the Columbus series was a pick’em.
 
It's going to happen sooner or later. Still would anyone be shocked if the universe conspired to give us Boston?
I for one invite it. They’re not as god as those Boston teams that broke our hearts, but they’re damn good and skating that dragon (bear?) would go a long way to building up to a cup run
 
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