Eastern Conference playoff picture: Leafs HOST Tampa Bay

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We know we have clinched. We know we have home ice.

But who are we playing? Does anyone smarter than me have the scenarios where we play Tampa or Boston?
you can essentially lock in tampa unless they lose out and boston wins out
 
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Reactions: Cleetus
Neither the Bruins or Lightning will even be playing the Panthers round 1 if they are in the WC1 spot - they'd be playing Carolina. Panthers are locked to one of the Penguins or Capitals.

Correct because they keep winning and trying to stay out of the wild card spot.

Here is what I believe Tampa Bay and Boston are seeing, and trying to play the weakest "defensive" team in the playoffs.

Standings Goals against as of April 27th, 2022.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]OTL[/TD]
[TD]PTS[/TD]
[TD]GF[/TD]
[TD]GA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]y --Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
81​
[/TD]

[TD]
53​
[/TD]

[TD]
20​
[/TD]

[TD]
8​
[/TD]

[TD]
114​
[/TD]

[TD]
272​
[/TD]

[TD]
199
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]x --New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
51​
[/TD]

[TD]
23​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
108​
[/TD]

[TD]
248​
[/TD]

[TD]
201
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]y --Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
50​
[/TD]

[TD]
20​
[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]

[TD]
110​
[/TD]

[TD]
290​
[/TD]

[TD]
202​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]x --Boston Bruins[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
50​
[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
5​
[/TD]

[TD]
105​
[/TD]

[TD]
247​
[/TD]

[TD]
215
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]x --Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
50​
[/TD]

[TD]
22​
[/TD]

[TD]
8​
[/TD]

[TD]
108​
[/TD]

[TD]
279​
[/TD]

[TD]
224
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]z --Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
56​
[/TD]

[TD]
18​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
118​
[/TD]

[TD]
307​
[/TD]

[TD]
225​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]x --Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
81​
[/TD]

[TD]
45​
[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]

[TD]
101​
[/TD]

[TD]
267​
[/TD]

[TD]
226​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]x --Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
43​
[/TD]

[TD]
27​
[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]

[TD]
96​
[/TD]

[TD]
232​
[/TD]

[TD]
230​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]e --New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
36​
[/TD]

[TD]
34​
[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]

[TD]
82​
[/TD]

[TD]
222​
[/TD]

[TD]
230​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]e --Vancouver Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
39​
[/TD]

[TD]
30​
[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]

[TD]
89​
[/TD]

[TD]
244​
[/TD]

[TD]
231​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]x --St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
81​
[/TD]

[TD]
49​
[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]

[TD]
109​
[/TD]

[TD]
307​
[/TD]

[TD]
235​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]z --Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
57​
[/TD]

[TD]
17​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
120​
[/TD]

[TD]
334​
[/TD]

[TD]
236​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]x --Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
44​
[/TD]

[TD]
24​
[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]

[TD]
100​
[/TD]

[TD]
272​
[/TD]

[TD]
237​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]Dallas Stars[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
45​
[/TD]

[TD]
30​
[/TD]

[TD]
5​
[/TD]

[TD]
95​
[/TD]

[TD]
231​
[/TD]

[TD]
240​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]Vegas Golden Knights[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
42​
[/TD]

[TD]
31​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]
91​
[/TD]

[TD]
256​
[/TD]

[TD]
240​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]x --Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
44​
[/TD]

[TD]
29​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]
95​
[/TD]

[TD]
257​
[/TD]

[TD]
243​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]x - Edmonton Oilers[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
47​
[/TD]

[TD]
27​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
100​
[/TD]

[TD]
282​
[/TD]

[TD]
246​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]x --Minnesota Wild[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
51​
[/TD]

[TD]
22​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]
109​
[/TD]

[TD]
303​
[/TD]

[TD]
250​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]x --Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
81​
[/TD]

[TD]
53​
[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]
113​
[/TD]

[TD]
310​
[/TD]

[TD]
251
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Boston and Tampa Bay rank #4 an d #5 in best Goals Against ... The team that ends up in WC #1 has to face Carolina/Rangers who are #1 and #2 best in goals against .. With NYR Igor Shesterkin & CAR Freddy Andersen leading the league in GAA and SV%.

The winner of the race for #3 in the Atlantic avoids the 2 X best defensive teams CAR and NYR and plays the Leafs who rank #19 in goals against with lots of question marks in net.

In the playoffs where things tighten up defensively even more and where "Defense wins Championships" .. The Leafs become the weakest opponent of all the 8 teams of the Eastern Conference, which in turn then might make them the most desirable first round opponent for the opposition. IMO

If you had to pick #1 Carolina top team in Metro who has surrendered -52 less goals against than the Leafs, or #19 Toronto to match up against, which would you prefer?
 
Last edited:
Correct because they keep winning and trying to stay out of the wild card spot.

Here is what I believe Tampa Bay and Boston are seeing, and trying to play the weakest "defensive" team in the playoffs.

Standings Goals against as of April 27th, 2022.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]OTL[/TD]
[TD]PTS[/TD]
[TD]GF[/TD]
[TD]GA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]y --Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
81​
[/TD]

[TD]
53​
[/TD]

[TD]
20​
[/TD]

[TD]
8​
[/TD]

[TD]
114​
[/TD]

[TD]
272​
[/TD]

[TD]
199
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]x --New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
51​
[/TD]

[TD]
23​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
108​
[/TD]

[TD]
248​
[/TD]

[TD]
201
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]y --Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
50​
[/TD]

[TD]
20​
[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]

[TD]
110​
[/TD]

[TD]
290​
[/TD]

[TD]
202​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]x --Boston Bruins[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
50​
[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
5​
[/TD]

[TD]
105​
[/TD]

[TD]
247​
[/TD]

[TD]
215
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]x --Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
50​
[/TD]

[TD]
22​
[/TD]

[TD]
8​
[/TD]

[TD]
108​
[/TD]

[TD]
279​
[/TD]

[TD]
224
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]z --Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
56​
[/TD]

[TD]
18​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
118​
[/TD]

[TD]
307​
[/TD]

[TD]
225​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]x --Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
81​
[/TD]

[TD]
45​
[/TD]

[TD]
25​
[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]

[TD]
101​
[/TD]

[TD]
267​
[/TD]

[TD]
226​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]x --Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
43​
[/TD]

[TD]
27​
[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]

[TD]
96​
[/TD]

[TD]
232​
[/TD]

[TD]
230​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]e --New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
36​
[/TD]

[TD]
34​
[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]

[TD]
82​
[/TD]

[TD]
222​
[/TD]

[TD]
230​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]e --Vancouver Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
39​
[/TD]

[TD]
30​
[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]

[TD]
89​
[/TD]

[TD]
244​
[/TD]

[TD]
231​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]x --St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
81​
[/TD]

[TD]
49​
[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]

[TD]
109​
[/TD]

[TD]
307​
[/TD]

[TD]
235​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]z --Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
57​
[/TD]

[TD]
17​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
120​
[/TD]

[TD]
334​
[/TD]

[TD]
236​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]x --Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
44​
[/TD]

[TD]
24​
[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]

[TD]
100​
[/TD]

[TD]
272​
[/TD]

[TD]
237​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]Dallas Stars[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
45​
[/TD]

[TD]
30​
[/TD]

[TD]
5​
[/TD]

[TD]
95​
[/TD]

[TD]
231​
[/TD]

[TD]
240​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]Vegas Golden Knights[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
42​
[/TD]

[TD]
31​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]
91​
[/TD]

[TD]
256​
[/TD]

[TD]
240​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]x --Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
44​
[/TD]

[TD]
29​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]
95​
[/TD]

[TD]
257​
[/TD]

[TD]
243​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]x - Edmonton Oilers[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
47​
[/TD]

[TD]
27​
[/TD]

[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]
100​
[/TD]

[TD]
282​
[/TD]

[TD]
246​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]x --Minnesota Wild[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
80​
[/TD]

[TD]
51​
[/TD]

[TD]
22​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]
109​
[/TD]

[TD]
303​
[/TD]

[TD]
250​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]x --Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
81​
[/TD]

[TD]
53​
[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]
113​
[/TD]

[TD]
310​
[/TD]

[TD]
251
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Boston and Tampa Bay rank #4 an d #5 in best Goals Against ... The team that ends up in WC #1 has to face Carolina/Rangers who are #1 and #2 best in goals against .. With NYR Igor Shesterkin & CAR Freddy Andersen leading the league in GAA and SV%.

The winner of the race for #3 in the Atlantic avoids the 2 X best defensive teams CAR and NYR and plays the Leafs who rank #19 in goals against with lots of question marks in net.

In the playoffs where things tighten up defensively even more and where "Defense wins Championships" .. The Leafs become the weakest opponent of all the 8 teams of the Eastern Conference, which in turn then might make them the most desirable first round opponent for the opposition. IMO

If you had to pick #1 Carolina top team in Metro who has surrendered -52 less goals against than the Leafs, or #19 Toronto to match up against, which would you prefer?
You said they are trying to avoid Florida, not NYR or Carolina. They haven't even been in that WC2 slot for quite a while, so playing Florida hasn't really been a realistic placement.

And sure, the Leafs are worse defensively, but far better offensively, so pick your poison. All teams are just trying to win games, I don't think anyone is trying extra hard or not at all to try to shoehorn their way into a desired spot.
 
Tampa Bay has turned it on at just the right time as many suspected they would.

This will undoubtedly be the toughest playoff challenge this core has ever faced.
 
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Tampa Bay has won 4 straight games and Boston now 3 ...

That looks like 2 teams working hard to avoid Florida and racing each other to face our Leafs in round #1.

In fact both TB and Bos have defeated Florida, who had won 13 straight games to keep the chase alive after the Leafs lost to the Panthers.
This is a weird narrative to push, inferiority complex maybe? Even if it were true the Leafs are as scary an opponent as Carolina, who's goaltending injuries might really hurt their chances so if they were looking for a favourable match up they would be taking losses, not pushing for wins. No team does this though so it's a moot point.
 
You said they are trying to avoid Florida, not NYR or Carolina. They haven't even been in that WC2 slot for quite a while, so playing Florida hasn't really been a realistic placement.

And sure, the Leafs are worse defensively, but far better offensively, so pick your poison. All teams are just trying to win games, I don't think anyone is trying extra hard or not at all to try to shoehorn their way into a desired spot.
For our Leafs it is pick their poison, either its the 2X Cup champs the past 2 years or the team Boston who has defeated 2 X in the past 5 years already.

Remember TB was coasting for a while having lost 6 of 8 games and flirting with wild card position before putting the pedal down and winning 4 straight including putting up 8 spots goals for against both our Leafs and Florida, so while both teams are better offensive then TB, can't imagine they don't believe they can match up, because defensively Florida and Toronto defensive is their Achilles heel.

Our Leafs sadly likely have the toughest 1st round matchup with it likely being Tampa Bay. :(
 
For our Leafs it is pick their poison, either its the 2X Cup champs the past 2 years or the team Boston who has defeated 2 X in the past 5 years already.

Remember TB was coasting for a while having lost 6 of 8 games and flirting with wild card position before putting the pedal down and winning 4 straight including putting up 8 spots goals for against both our Leafs and Florida, so while both teams are better offensive then TB, can't imagine they don't believe they can match up, because defensively Florida and Toronto defensive is their Achilles heel.

Our Leafs sadly likely have the toughest 1st round matchup with it likely being Tampa Bay. :(
Yeah it's not ideal for sure. I was actually at the game last week in Tampa and kept telling myself that we beat them the previous game, so we know we can hang with them.
 
For our Leafs it is pick their poison, either its the 2X Cup champs the past 2 years or the team Boston who has defeated 2 X in the past 5 years already.

Remember TB was coasting for a while having lost 6 of 8 games and flirting with wild card position before putting the pedal down and winning 4 straight including putting up 8 spots goals for against both our Leafs and Florida, so while both teams are better offensive then TB, can't imagine they don't believe they can match up, because defensively Florida and Toronto defensive is their Achilles heel.

Our Leafs sadly likely have the toughest 1st round matchup with it likely being Tampa Bay. :(
8 goals against Kallgren, with no Matthews in the lineup paints a scarier picture than what the reality is. If the bolts can coast for a while close to the end of the regular season, then the Leafs get a pass on this one. It's a tough match up, but every single team in the east is a tough match up.

At this point we just have to wait and see how it plays out.
 
Goals Against per game with Starting Goalie in net

TBL 2.46
BOS 2.51
TOR 2.64
FLA 2.67

Goals For per game:

FLA 4.14
TOR 3.79
TBL 3.46
BOS 3.08


Goal Diff per game with Starting Goalie in net

FLA +1.47
TOR +1.15
TBL +1.00
BOS +0.57
 
Lol at just looking at the Leafs GA and thinking that's defensive impact.
I have it as a combination of defensive play and goaltending.

But it appears Campbell is getting hot at the right time, and with that goaltending the Leafs are a serious problem for any team in the playoffs granted our stars can finally translate their production to the playoffs. I'm weirdly optimistic about this upcoming matchup against the Bolts.
 
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Imagine thinking the Rangers have the 2nd best defense in the league :laugh:
NYR Igor Shesterkin is battling Matthews for the Hart as team MVP and posting league best GAA 2.07 and .935 sv%.

Their goals against is relative to their goalie and the pucks going in NYR net = defensive ability of the Rangers.
 
Except that's not true. NYR's goals against are largely a result of Shesterkin's goaltending, not because of the defensive ability of the Rangers.
Of course it is, so why can't you see that?

A teams goalie is an essential part of a teams defense and goals against and last line of defense. Some would say the goalie is the #1 factor in impacting the outcome.

"Good teams are built from the goalie out.... " "Defense wins Championships"

Leafs fans like you always make excuses claiming we got "out goalied" and the reason we lost the previous series against CBJ and MON.

Surely you can put 1 +1 together and realize a teams goals against and the GAA of a goalie stoping pucks from going in the net are connected and under team defense category.

Nobody believes a goalie is a part of the offense and goals for discussion.
 
Tampa Bay with Vasilevskiy the Conn Symthe reigning player in net is #2 in Saves above expected vs Jack Campbell who is #66 as on today.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Goals Saved Above Expected[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Goalie[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
1​
[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]
53​
[/TD]

[TD]
106​
[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2​
[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]
62​
[/TD]

[TD]
152​
[/TD]

[TD]180.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
3​
[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]
52​
[/TD]

[TD]
111​
[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.54[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
4​
[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]
54​
[/TD]

[TD]
137​
[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
5​
[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]
56​
[/TD]

[TD]
134​
[/TD]

[TD]154.95[/TD]
[TD]20.90[/TD]
[TD]0.39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD]Juuse Saros[/TD]

[TD]
67​
[/TD]

[TD]
173​
[/TD]

[TD]193.69[/TD]
[TD]20.70[/TD]
[TD]0.32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Quick[/TD]

[TD]
45​
[/TD]

[TD]
113​
[/TD]

[TD]130.34[/TD]
[TD]17.30[/TD]
[TD]0.40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
8​
[/TD]

[TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD]Connor Hellebuyck[/TD]

[TD]
65​
[/TD]

[TD]
192​
[/TD]

[TD]207.61[/TD]
[TD]15.60[/TD]
[TD]0.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
9​
[/TD]

[TD]St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD]Ville Husso[/TD]

[TD]
39​
[/TD]

[TD]
94​
[/TD]

[TD]108.95[/TD]
[TD]15.00[/TD]
[TD]0.39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
10​
[/TD]

[TD]New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Sorokin[/TD]

[TD]
51​
[/TD]

[TD]
118​
[/TD]

[TD]131.08[/TD]
[TD]13.10[/TD]
[TD]0.26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
11​
[/TD]

[TD]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD]Tristan Jarry[/TD]

[TD]
58​
[/TD]

[TD]
138​
[/TD]

[TD]150.76[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
12​
[/TD]

[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]Jacob Markstrom[/TD]

[TD]
62​
[/TD]

[TD]
134​
[/TD]

[TD]146.13[/TD]
[TD]12.10[/TD]
[TD]0.20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
13​
[/TD]

[TD]Vancouver Canucks[/TD]
[TD]Thatcher Demko[/TD]

[TD]
64​
[/TD]

[TD]
168​
[/TD]

[TD]178.50[/TD]
[TD]10.50[/TD]
[TD]0.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
14​
[/TD]

[TD]Edmonton Oilers[/TD]
[TD]Mike Smith[/TD]

[TD]
28​
[/TD]

[TD]
74​
[/TD]

[TD]81.39[/TD]
[TD]7.40[/TD]
[TD]0.28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
15​
[/TD]

[TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD]Eric Comrie[/TD]

[TD]
17​
[/TD]

[TD]
41​
[/TD]

[TD]48.27[/TD]
[TD]7.30[/TD]
[TD]0.48[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
16​
[/TD]

[TD]Vancouver Canucks[/TD]
[TD]Spencer Martin[/TD]

[TD]
4​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]13.51[/TD]
[TD]6.50[/TD]
[TD]1.57[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
17​
[/TD]

[TD]Ottawa Senators[/TD]
[TD]Anton Forsberg[/TD]

[TD]
45​
[/TD]

[TD]
119​
[/TD]

[TD]125.12[/TD]
[TD]6.10[/TD]
[TD]0.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
18​
[/TD]

[TD]Vegas Golden Knights[/TD]
[TD]Robin Lehner[/TD]

[TD]
44​
[/TD]

[TD]
120​
[/TD]

[TD]126.07[/TD]
[TD]6.10[/TD]
[TD]0.14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]Boston Bruins[/TD]
[TD]Jeremy Swayman[/TD]

[TD]
40​
[/TD]

[TD]
92​
[/TD]

[TD]97.87[/TD]
[TD]5.90[/TD]
[TD]0.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
20​
[/TD]

[TD]Philadelphia Flyers[/TD]
[TD]Felix Sandstrom[/TD]

[TD]
4​
[/TD]

[TD]
13​
[/TD]

[TD]17.63[/TD]
[TD]4.60[/TD]
[TD]1.16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
66​
[/TD]

[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]Jack Campbell[/TD]

[TD]
49​
[/TD]

[TD]
123​
[/TD]

[TD]120.66[/TD]
[TD](2.30)[/TD]
[TD](0.05)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Our Leafs are at huge disadvantage entering this series against TB when comparing the netminders head to head.

The top 4 teams in this category reside in the East and tops among the Metro and Atlantic Divs. These are the hardest teams to score against and surrender least goals against even when giving up HDSC against.

Jack Campbell is gong need to stand on his head and make many saves above expected this series to out goalie Vas in net on the other side for Leafs to advance.

Leafs road to the Cup might very well go through Tampa, Florida, Carolina/NYR and then Colorado which would be 4 of the top 5 goalies in saves above expected.
 
Last edited:
Tampa Bay with Vasilevskiy the Conn Symthe reigning player in net is #2 in Saves above expected vs Jack Campbell who is #66 as on today.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Goals Saved Above Expected[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Goalie[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
1​
[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]
53​
[/TD]

[TD]
106​
[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.67[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2​
[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]
62​
[/TD]

[TD]
152​
[/TD]

[TD]180.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
3​
[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]
52​
[/TD]

[TD]
111​
[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.54[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
4​
[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]
54​
[/TD]

[TD]
137​
[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
5​
[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]
56​
[/TD]

[TD]
134​
[/TD]

[TD]154.95[/TD]
[TD]20.90[/TD]
[TD]0.39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
6​
[/TD]

[TD]Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD]Juuse Saros[/TD]

[TD]
67​
[/TD]

[TD]
173​
[/TD]

[TD]193.69[/TD]
[TD]20.70[/TD]
[TD]0.32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Quick[/TD]

[TD]
45​
[/TD]

[TD]
113​
[/TD]

[TD]130.34[/TD]
[TD]17.30[/TD]
[TD]0.40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
8​
[/TD]

[TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD]Connor Hellebuyck[/TD]

[TD]
65​
[/TD]

[TD]
192​
[/TD]

[TD]207.61[/TD]
[TD]15.60[/TD]
[TD]0.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
9​
[/TD]

[TD]St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD]Ville Husso[/TD]

[TD]
39​
[/TD]

[TD]
94​
[/TD]

[TD]108.95[/TD]
[TD]15.00[/TD]
[TD]0.39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
10​
[/TD]

[TD]New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Sorokin[/TD]

[TD]
51​
[/TD]

[TD]
118​
[/TD]

[TD]131.08[/TD]
[TD]13.10[/TD]
[TD]0.26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
11​
[/TD]

[TD]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD]Tristan Jarry[/TD]

[TD]
58​
[/TD]

[TD]
138​
[/TD]

[TD]150.76[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
12​
[/TD]

[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]Jacob Markstrom[/TD]

[TD]
62​
[/TD]

[TD]
134​
[/TD]

[TD]146.13[/TD]
[TD]12.10[/TD]
[TD]0.20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
13​
[/TD]

[TD]Vancouver Canucks[/TD]
[TD]Thatcher Demko[/TD]

[TD]
64​
[/TD]

[TD]
168​
[/TD]

[TD]178.50[/TD]
[TD]10.50[/TD]
[TD]0.17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
14​
[/TD]

[TD]Edmonton Oilers[/TD]
[TD]Mike Smith[/TD]

[TD]
28​
[/TD]

[TD]
74​
[/TD]

[TD]81.39[/TD]
[TD]7.40[/TD]
[TD]0.28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
15​
[/TD]

[TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD]Eric Comrie[/TD]

[TD]
17​
[/TD]

[TD]
41​
[/TD]

[TD]48.27[/TD]
[TD]7.30[/TD]
[TD]0.48[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
16​
[/TD]

[TD]Vancouver Canucks[/TD]
[TD]Spencer Martin[/TD]

[TD]
4​
[/TD]

[TD]
7​
[/TD]

[TD]13.51[/TD]
[TD]6.50[/TD]
[TD]1.57[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
17​
[/TD]

[TD]Ottawa Senators[/TD]
[TD]Anton Forsberg[/TD]

[TD]
45​
[/TD]

[TD]
119​
[/TD]

[TD]125.12[/TD]
[TD]6.10[/TD]
[TD]0.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
18​
[/TD]

[TD]Vegas Golden Knights[/TD]
[TD]Robin Lehner[/TD]

[TD]
44​
[/TD]

[TD]
120​
[/TD]

[TD]126.07[/TD]
[TD]6.10[/TD]
[TD]0.14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
19​
[/TD]

[TD]Boston Bruins[/TD]
[TD]Jeremy Swayman[/TD]

[TD]
40​
[/TD]

[TD]
92​
[/TD]

[TD]97.87[/TD]
[TD]5.90[/TD]
[TD]0.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
20​
[/TD]

[TD]Philadelphia Flyers[/TD]
[TD]Felix Sandstrom[/TD]

[TD]
4​
[/TD]

[TD]
13​
[/TD]

[TD]17.63[/TD]
[TD]4.60[/TD]
[TD]1.16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
66​
[/TD]

[TD]Toronto Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]Jack Campbell[/TD]

[TD]
49​
[/TD]

[TD]
123​
[/TD]

[TD]120.66[/TD]
[TD](2.30)[/TD]
[TD](0.05)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Our Leafs are at huge disadvantage entering this series against TB when comparing the netminders head to head.

The top 4 teams in this category reside in the East and tops among the Metro and Atlantic Divs. These are the hardest teams to score against and surrender least goals against even when giving up HDSC against.

Jack Campbell is gong need to stand on his head and make many saves above expected this series to out goalie Vas in net on the other side for Leafs to advance.

Leafs road to the Cup might very well go through Tampa, Florida, Carolina/NYR and then Colorado which would be 4 of the top 5 goalies in saves above expected.
Got to beat the best if you want to be the best.
 
A teams goalie is an essential part of a teams defense and goals against and last line of defense. Some would say the goalie is the #1 factor in impacting the outcome.
A team's goalie is an essential part of a team's goals against, but that is different from the defensive ability of the rest of the team.

There are 3 main parts to a team - offense, defense, and goaltending. Now that the team has an excellent defense, your incorrect and disproven "defense wins championships" football mantra from decades ago would suggest that we are a championship-caliber team, so you have incorrectly represented our defense by combining those excellent results with our poor goaltending results (primarily from goaltenders that likely won't even play in the playoffs).
 
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NYR Igor Shesterkin is battling Matthews for the Hart as team MVP and posting league best GAA 2.07 and .935 sv%.

Their goals against is relative to their goalie and the pucks going in NYR net = defensive ability of the Rangers.

Shesterkin is the odds on favorite for the Vezina as I see it but he won’t be a finalist for Hart
 
Regular season stats mean nothing come playoff time .. like it always does it will come down to D and G .. on D we are pretty close overall on top 6 but Tampa's top 4 is better then ours and ice time will get limited on D to top 2 pairs .. in G we are no match .. bottom line Gio and Muzzy need to control games and make zero mistakes .. it will be a heavy heavy grind of a series and it will come down to whose D make most mistakes .. our forwards won't/can't wear down Tampa's D so we gotta hope Vasi plays like OMG LOL Vasi rather than steel wall Vasi (he is Jekyll and Hyde) .. if Vasi goes Conn Smyth than it will be over and Tampa wins
 
I want to be optimistic but I also think it's ridiculous that our reward for a franchise record setting regular season is facing Tampa Bay in the first round.

We have virtually no margin for error in order to have any chance of winning the series.

If Vasilevsky plays as expected and we lose the series, I hope Dubas and Keefe keep their jobs and the core is kept intact.
 
Last edited:
Throw all the stats out the window. Playoffs are a different beast. Anyone that thinks we beat Tampa, we win the cup is insane. Let’s hope this group of underachievers can finally do something
 
Throw all the stats out the window. Playoffs are a different beast. Anyone that thinks we beat Tampa, we win the cup is insane. Let’s hope this group of underachievers can finally do something
I certainly didn't want TB in the 1st round but we probably get them.
I'm still not throwing in the towel.

🇺🇦
 
We've got a very good team, if we can stay healthy in key positions. I don't care if Tampa is a tough first round matchup, if this group wants to succeed, they are going to have to win tough matchups. I'm looking forward to the start of the playoffs, and a good Leafs team showing up.
 
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