Eastern Conference playoff picture: Leafs HOST Tampa Bay

[Gary Nylund]

Just two teams are in the top 5 of both 5v5 xGA/60 and xGF/60.

the Leafs and the Flames.

leafs rank 3rd in the xGF and 5th in the xGA. Calgary ranks 4th in the xGF and 3rd in the xGA.

We rank 3rd in the xGF%. Behind the Bruins (1st in xGA, but 11th in xGF) and the Panthers (1st in xGF, but 16th in xGA). The Flames are 4th.

FWIW, Tampa Bay is 9th in xGF%, ranking 9th in xGF and 8th in xGA.


This is a very good hockey team ladies and gentlemen.

Of course this is a very good team, this is not news, we've been a very good team for a number of years now (at least in the regular season).

These stats you posted aren't very useful though. The problem is that they don't factor in goaltending and that of course is the big problem with this team. What would help add some context is some goaltending numbers, why don't we look at SV%. As of today, we are 23rd overall in SV%, yikes that's pretty bad. We're still a very good team, no arguments there but maybe not as good as these "X" stats would have one think.

As Campbell goes, so go the Leafs. That IMHO will be the story of these playoffs for us.

 

[leafsfan5]

I wouldn't hate the Leafs chances against any of Carolina, New York, Pittsburgh, or Washington. Florida and Tampa are nightmare matchups, and no sane Leafs fan should want to play Boston in the playoffs.

This is a shame because we're stuck with the current playoff format.

Florida is elite, but they remind me a bit of the 09-10 Caps. Historical offense, but I think they give up a little too much. If Jack comes back into form (he's had a solid last 3 games) I like our odds against them. Either way, the winner of TB-TOR beats them imo

TB on the other hand has shown they can beat you in a 1-0 game where they hold you to less than 20 shots, a 6-4 barn burner, or a 2-1 goaltending duel. Much more versatility which is scary

Boston no longer worries me, they're very good but we're simply better. Our forechecking can break down their defence

 

[Gary Nylund]

Florida is elite, but they remind me a bit of the 09-10 Caps. Historical offense, but I think they give up a little too much. If Jack comes back into form (he's had a solid last 3 games) I like our odds against them. Either way, the winner of TB-TOR beats them imo

TB on the other hand has shown they can beat you in a 1-0 game where they hold you to less than 20 shots, a 6-4 barn burner, or a 2-1 goaltending duel. Much more versatility which is scary

Boston no longer worries me, they're very good but we're simply better. Our forechecking can break down their defence

FLA has a goal differential of +101 which leads the NHL by a good margin. For context, the Leafs are +54.

I know it's not a fancy stat but I have followed goal differential ever since I was a little kid back in the 70s and I've noticed that whenever teams are roughly even in the standings but one has a much better goal differential, the team with the better differential eventually pulls ahead. The fact that FLA is killing it in this dept. is nothing to sneeze at.

FLA is having an incredible season. More wins than any other team, less losses than any other team and the best goal differential. They lost Ekblad and they just keep on rolling, so hard not to be impressed with their ability to fight through adversity. Contrast that to our team who uses losing Tavares as an excuse for losing to MTL.

All the teams in the East are good so no locks in 1st round matchups. I agree that TB is the scariest though and the main reason is Vasilevsky. Goaltending is just critical and will likely decide several 1st round matchups in the East this season.

 

[leafsfan5]

FLA has a goal differential of +101 which leads the NHL by a good margin. For context, the Leafs are +54.

I know it's not a fancy stat but I have followed goal differential ever since I was a little kid back in the 70s and I've noticed that whenever teams are roughly even in the standings but one has a much better goal differential, the team with the better differential eventually pulls ahead. The fact that FLA is killing it in this dept. is nothing to sneeze at.

FLA is having an incredible season. More wins than any other team, less losses than any other team and the best goal differential. They lost Ekblad and they just keep on rolling, so hard not to be impressed with their ability to fight through adversity. Contrast that to our team who uses losing Tavares as an excuse for losing to MTL.

All the teams in the East are good so no locks in 1st round matchups. I agree that TB is the scariest though and the main reason is Vasilevsky. Goaltending is just critical and will likely decide several 1st round matchups in the East this season.

They're definitely a good team, nothing about them suggests that they would be a weak opponent. But they have holes, and I think the Leafs have the talent to exploit them

Our hopes rest on Jack at this point. If he gives us solid goaltending the sky is the limit

 

[GoonieFace]

They're definitely a good team, nothing about them suggests that they would be a weak opponent. But they have holes, and I think the Leafs have the talent to exploit them

Our hopes rest on Jack at this point. If he gives us solid goaltending the sky is the limit

I’m more worried about the big boys not showing up than the goaltending

 

[deprw]

The ultimate goal is all that matters. Your position reminds me of the "everybody gets a trophy" mentality, and look what that idiotic mindset has accomplished.

Anyone that executes anything that is worth anything, that is the worst possible mindset and produces more harm than any benefits. That doesn't mean that you don't go full out for the Stanley Cup, Olympic Gold or anything important you want to accomplish. Off course you do, it's your goal, but if your mindset is win or bust you hinder your chances. Optimize your process, give yourself best possible chance to execute and enjoy the grind, if you don't get what you want you learn from your mistakes and start over. Don't fixate on the outcome and make it too big, in the end all that matters is that you give all that you got. No matter how hard you push sometimes you're second or fourth or whatever. That's life, you don't get to f*** prom queen after every party.

I don't see any "everybody gets a trophy" mentality with the Leafs. I think our organization was fixated on winning so much, that we forgot that you actually have to work on it. I think Shanahan changed that mentality and threw out that old school mentality.

 

[Menzinger]

You think Leafs fans more than anyone should realize the outcome of a 7 game series isn't determined before the puck is dropped on game #1

 

[Menzinger]

FLA has a goal differential of +101 which leads the NHL by a good margin. For context, the Leafs are +54.

I know it's not a fancy stat but I have followed goal differential ever since I was a little kid back in the 70s and I've noticed that whenever teams are roughly even in the standings but one has a much better goal differential, the team with the better differential eventually pulls ahead. The fact that FLA is killing it in this dept. is nothing to sneeze at.

FLA is having an incredible season. More wins than any other team, less losses than any other team and the best goal differential. They lost Ekblad and they just keep on rolling, so hard not to be impressed with their ability to fight through adversity. Contrast that to our team who uses losing Tavares as an excuse for losing to MTL.

All the teams in the East are good so no locks in 1st round matchups. I agree that TB is the scariest though and the main reason is Vasilevsky. Goaltending is just critical and will likely decide several 1st round matchups in the East this season.

Though Florida has an older core than Toronto and have had as much recent playoff success as the Leafs. Not sure a good regular season performance gives them any extra leverage or credibility here

But agreed the East is going to be a dog fight for all involved

 

[Gary Nylund]

Florida has an older core than Toronto and have had as much recent playoff success as the Leafs.

Again, not sure a good regular season performance gives them any extra leverage or credibility here

I just had a look at their numbers. Out of their top 10 point getters, 2 are 28 years old, 1 is 20 and the rest are 25/26. Seems pretty ideal to me so not sure what the point is that you're trying to make here. Maybe "older" core is a good thing in this case?

Yes both teams haven't had success in the playoffs in ages.

Not sure what you mean by "extra leverage or credibility", I'm just saying that they seem to have a damn good team over there. If you want to toss out their regular season then fine, I guess we're tossing ours out as well then? Isn't our regular season performance why some people are saying we're such a great team? If this is the best Maple Leaf season ever then hey that's great but why would we ignore that Florida's season was even better?

 

[Cor]

Of course this is a very good team, this is not news, we've been a very good team for a number of years now (at least in the regular season).

These stats you posted aren't very useful though. The problem is that they don't factor in goaltending and that of course is the big problem with this team. What would help add some context is some goaltending numbers, why don't we look at SV%. As of today, we are 23rd overall in SV%, yikes that's pretty bad. We're still a very good team, no arguments there but maybe not as good as these "X" stats would have one think.

As Campbell goes, so go the Leafs. That IMHO will be the story of these playoffs for us.

Your stats includes all goalies, so the numbers you’ve provided aren’t very useful. Why don’t we look at the playoff starters for each of the teams we could see in Round 1 or 2 as of now:

Andrei Vasilevsky - .917
Linus Ullmark - .914
Jack Campbell - .913
Sergei Bobrovsky - .912
Ilya Samsonov - .897

 

[Gary Nylund]

Your stats includes all goalies, so the numbers you’ve provided aren’t very useful. Why don’t we look at the playoff starters for each of the teams we could see in Round 1 or 2 as of now:

Andrei Vasilevsky - .917
Linus Ullmark - .914
Jack Campbell - .913
Sergei Bobrovsky - .912
Ilya Samsonov - .897

Sure, the more context the better. Certainly better than ignoring goaltending completely which is what you started with. Let's hope that Campbell can provide us with at least that .913 level of play.

Also, labelling the numbers I gave as not "very useful" and only looking at starters instead isn't quite the whole story. Ignoring everything but the starters numbers is only valid if we can safely assume that our starter will be able to start every game and considering Campbell's history, that's not something we can count on. But of course we are all hoping that he is able to play every game (and play well) because if he isn't, then those "not very useful" numbers come into play and then we're in deep trouble.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Well, looks like we have our dance partner for round 1. Of all the years we’ve made the playoffs since 2017, this will undoubtedly be our toughest challenge yet. Beat Tampa and we go on to win the Cup.

Either way, this is going to be one hell of a series. Bring on the playoffs!!

 

[leafsfan5]

well...it's official

Entertainment wise, this is by far the best first round matchup in the NHL. You're getting conference final hockey off the bat

edit: not official yet, though very very likely

 

[ACC1224]

Anyone done any research on a likely schedule?

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Who else is going to Tampa for games 3 and 4?!?

 

[Sypher04]

But, it’s NOT official yet?

While, highly unlikely, Boston can still pass Tampa if they win their last 2 and Tampa lose both theirs.

Actually Boston would only need 3 points since they hold tie breaker.

 

[TorMapleJays]

Anyone done any research on a likely schedule?

Tuesday is no good here in Toronto, and Saturday Tampa has a concert.

If they want game seven on Saturday, Leafs go Monday, if they want game seven on monday leafs go Wednesday.

 

[ACC1224]

Tuesday is no good here in Toronto, and Saturday Tampa has a concert.

If they want game seven on Saturday, Leafs go Monday, if they want game seven on monday leafs go Wednesday.

Thought they said in the telecast it would start Monday or Tuesday? You’d think they would have checked the venue.

So Monday or Wednesday then.

 

[TorMapleJays]

Thought they said in the telecast it would start Monday or Tuesday? You’d think they would have checked the venue.

So Monday or Wednesday then.

Wildcard is the Raptors make history and win their series.

 

[ACC1224]

Wildcard is the Raptors make history and win their series.

Right forgot they were playing.

 

[Buds17]

Tuesday is no good here in Toronto, and Saturday Tampa has a concert.

If they want game seven on Saturday, Leafs go Monday, if they want game seven on monday leafs go Wednesday.

Game 7 on a Saturday would essentially be the equivalent of an expertly written script. No "guarantees" of the series going the distance though (I know, I know!).

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Wildcard is the Raptors make history and win their series.

That has no bearing the Raptors wouldn't be starting their series at home.

 

[Menzinger]

Finding his form again just in time

 

[ErnieLeafs]

Thought they said in the telecast it would start Monday or Tuesday? You’d think they would have checked the venue.

So Monday or Wednesday then.

I’m up in TO for a concert (John Mayer) tuesday night at SBA

 

[Stephen]

Finding his form again just in time

Jack is rounding into form at the right time.

Hypothetical of hypotheticals. Let's say it's Friday night and Boston is in a position to pass Tampa, who loses on Long Island. What do you do if you're the Leafs? Risk the wrath of the hockey gods and help Boston out so we play Boston, or do you just try to run the table to close out the regular season and just commit to playing the best hockey vs Tampa?