Eastern Conference playoff picture: Leafs HOST Tampa Bay

[Stephen]

It’s equally lazy to act like being goalied isn’t a very real thing that can happen and distinct possibility vs someone like Vasi as it is to try to erroneously apply it to every failure

Fan who fall back on the “getting goalied” crutch actually don’t realize that their position is actually a lot more pessimistic than some of the more vocal critique which sounds harsh on the surface but is really looking for an edge somewhere else.

Because “getting goalied” implies you can strip your team to the chassis, rebuild from the draft, hit on every lottery pick but one fine day you run into a hot goalie and be derails all your best laid plans. Year after year.

So if the power of one goalie can derail an entire organization, why don’t the Leafs just build from a god goalie out?

Anyway, getting back to the Leafs on the losing end of a hot goalie matchup, I think their perceived dominance and shot advantage belies 2x things. They get high shot volume and bad body positioning from a park the bus defense, and also aren’t a great puck distributing team that can zip it around and pull apart a static defense that wants to box out.

So if I were to offer a couple of suggestions to avoid “getting goalied” it would actually be better at quicker puck movement up the ice, attack in straighter lines and blend zone entries with more dump ins to create more retreat situations for the D.

 

[Clark4Ever]

It would be just our luck to have a franchise record regular season only to end up facing the back to back Stanley Cup Champions and the best goalie on the planet in the first round as a result.

Depending on how things play out this week, it might not be a bad idea to throw the final game against Boston.

 

[Stephen]

As awful as it'd look seeing "6 straight first round exits on their resume, it doesn't make sense to me why Keefe or Dubas would be fired if we lose in round one this year.

They've put together the best Leafs team we've ever seen (statistically speaking), and if we lose in a tightly-contested series against the two-time reigning champs, is there anything you can really do about that? It's not their fault we play in the best division of the 21st century.

The Columbus and Montreal exits were embarrassing. Unless we get absolutely decimated by the Lightning, the measuring stick this year is way different.

Yeah I don’t think we’d fire them either. Also seems like a fluke year where everyone is going all in in the Atlantic. But I kind of expect Florida to fade a bit and Tampa takes a step back next year. But don’t want to get too far ahead with that because let’s just go in and try to win in an underdog role.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sure, Dekes. They were a well prepared, well motivated team with superior talent going into the Columbus series but for whatever reason it didn’t work out.

Sure, Stephen. This professional hockey team in the biggest league in the world with immense pressure to win thought Columbus was garbage and decided to meme and disrespect them by just not bothering to try, and so they twiddled their thumbs and did "fluff nonsense" for weeks/months instead of analyzing their opponent and making preparations like every team.

That sounds totally reasonable, and no evidence is required to make such claims.

 

[Sypher04]

Fan who fall back on the “getting goalied” crutch actually don’t realize that their position is actually a lot more pessimistic than some of the more vocal critique which sounds harsh on the surface but is really looking for an edge somewhere else.

Because “getting goalied” implies you can strip your team to the chassis, rebuild from the draft, hit on every lottery pick but one fine day you run into a hot goalie and be derails all your best laid plans. Year after year.

So if the power of one goalie can derail an entire organization, why don’t the Leafs just build from a god goalie out?

Anyway, getting back to the Leafs on the losing end of a hot goalie matchup, I think their perceived dominance and shot advantage belies 2x things. They get high shot volume and bad body positioning from a park the bus defense, and also aren’t a great puck distributing team that can zip it around and pull apart a static defense that wants to box out.

So if I were to offer a couple of suggestions to avoid “getting goalied” it would actually be better at quicker puck movement up the ice, attack in straighter lines and blend zone entries with more dump ins to create more retreat situations for the D.

That’s why I said both are lazy. You absolutely can get goalied in a game or even a series; I don’t even think this is honestly a matter up for debate. If it’s a repeated pattern over several years or if people erroneously blame series losses on it we’re dealing with a different issue then imo.

As for why not just build from a god goaltender out. The short answer is they aren’t easy to acquire, and they are just as hard to draft

 

[IPS]

It's interesting that you view the positive Leafs takes as tribalist while the negative takes as independent thinking.

Do you even read this board?

His shtick is beyond obvious at this point.

 

[Avilaj07]

If everyone is healthy, what I really hope our lines look like in the playoffs are,

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kase
Engvall-Kampf-Nylander
Kerfoot- Spezza-Blackwell
Simmonds

Rielly-Lyubushkin
Giordano-Liljegren
Sandin-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl

Campbell
Kallegren

 

[ACC1224]

His shtick is beyond obvious at this point.

Who Dicks?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Why do you speak to others about "false narratives" and things being based on nothing, when you spin facts as you do?
It is okay to admit your team is not perfect.

Unlike some in this thread, I haven't spun a single thing. I go by the facts and look at things objectively.

I know my team is not perfect, but I also understand that no team is perfect. That's a wildly unrealistic goal that will never be achieved. Some people still haven't learned that:

As someone who thinks perfection should be the goal

The rest of us have more reasonable expectations and evaluate the team in more productive ways - relative to the rest of the league.

 

[MoreMogilny]

If everyone is healthy, what I really hope our lines look like in the playoffs are,

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kase
Engvall-Kampf-Nylander
Kerfoot- Spezza-Blackwell
Simmonds

Rielly-Lyubushkin
Giordano-Liljegren
Sandin-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl

Campbell
Kallegren

I don’t believe Kase is in a position to even be in the discussion unfortunately. He may be skating, but I think he will still be absent for some time.

I don’t mind the D, except that if healthy, Muzzin will draw in. He has not been himself this season but if he’s ready to go he will make it into on the lineup. I just don’t want to see a lineup that features both him and Holl. I think it’s likely that Liljegren or Sandin sit.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

If Toronto beats Tampa, hockey social media and this forum will simply contract into a tiny spot in space with the weight of a million Earths in it, so densely packed with salt that no posts about anything else will escape it's pull.

I picture zeke and dekes 4 day's smiling faces just orbiting slightly out it's grasp, with huge shit eating grins on their faces.

 

[Stephen]

Sure, Stephen. This professional hockey team in the biggest league in the world with immense pressure to win thought Columbus was garbage and decided to meme and disrespect them by just not bothering to try, and so they twiddled their thumbs and did "fluff nonsense" for weeks/months instead of analyzing their opponent and making preparations like every team.

That sounds totally reasonable, and no evidence is required to make such claims.

The immense pressure of playing in their home rink, no travel and devoid of fans other than piped crowd noise? Scared or unprepared, neither scenario is flattering.

 

[Anthrax442]

Speed is the only way they can beat the Bolts.

 

[riffle]

His shtick is beyond obvious at this point.

Yes. It should be. Be as brutally honest about what you think and feel about this team. Sometimes it is good. Sometimes it is not so good. Most of the time it is about responding to irrationality. You become the problem for saying there's a problem. Not everyone will have a problem with my "schtick" but those it indicts surely will have issues and post in kind.

Just a small example. I point out that Washington is a HUGE game for the Leafs. I get posts back saying no way Tampa will win out, the loss to them was "meaningless". If not for that remarkable comeback last night you would've felt every bit of what I was speaking to in the doomsday scenario. The crisis was averted with the 2 points, but it was a very worthy topic of discussion but many could not or would not even acknowledge this. It was too "Alex Jones" for your tastes, I guess. I see things you don't wish to see, and that's fine. I don't think I'm better. I think I'm willing to see things as they are not as I wish for them to be.

 

[tom leafers]

If Toronto beats Tampa, hockey social media and this forum will simply contract into a tiny spot in space with the weight of a million Earths in it, so densely packed with salt that no posts about anything else will escape it's pull.

I picture zeke and dekes 4 day's smiling faces just orbiting slightly out it's grasp, with huge shit eating grins on their faces.

there wont be any posts because the site itself will crash for hours on end aha

 

[Dekes For Days]

The immense pressure of playing in their home rink, no travel and devoid of fans other than piped crowd noise?

Not really the main point of the post, which it seems you won't acknowledge, but how do those things change the pressure they were under to win anyway?

 

[ACC1224]

If Toronto beats Tampa, hockey social media and this forum will simply contract into a tiny spot in space with the weight of a million Earths in it, so densely packed with salt that no posts about anything else will escape it's pull.

I picture zeke and dekes 4 day's smiling faces just orbiting slightly out it's grasp, with huge shit eating grins on their faces.

If only they could be blasted into orbit now that would be a huge win.

 

[IPS]

Yes. It should be. Be as brutally honest about what you think and feel about this team. Sometimes it is good. Sometimes it is not so good. Most of the time it is about responding to irrationality. You become the problem for saying there's a problem. Not everyone will have a problem with my "schtick" but those it indicts surely will have issues and post in kind.

Just a small example. I point out that Washington is a HUGE game for the Leafs. I get posts back saying no way Tampa will win out, the loss to them was "meaningless". If not for that remarkable comeback last night you would've felt every bit of what I was speaking to in the doomsday scenario. The crisis was averted with the 2 points, but it was a very worthy topic of discussion but many could not or would not even acknowledge this. It was too "Alex Jones" for your tastes, I guess. I see things you don't wish to see, and that's fine. I don't think I'm better. I think I'm willing to see things as they are not as I wish for them to be.

2 goal comeback - something the Leafs have done many times this season.

"A rEmArKaBlE cOmEbAcK!!" - the hyperbole of your posts is almost too much

 

[Mess]

Leaf fans that live and die by analytics should be able to see Leafs "being outgoalied" against Atlantic competition is already right there in the #'s.

Simply compare the goalie stats of Jack Campbell verses Tampa, Boston and Florida and other top Eastern teams of his peers SV% and GAA and he will often come up as second best in 1-1 head to head comparisons.

Toronto has surrendered 251 goals against in the season ..... Florida 232 [- 19 goals less], Tampa Bay 223 GA [-28 goals against] and Boston only 213 GA [ - 38 goals less] . Carolina 196, NYR 197 and Pittsburgh 221 GA rank #1, #2 and #5 in least goals against this year to date.

Goals saved above expected stats top 6 Eastern teams vs Campbell.

#1 - New York Rangers - Igor Shesterkin ................35.3
#2 - Carolina Hurricanes - Frederik Andersen ..... 27.8
#3 - Tampa Bay Lightning - Andrei Vasilevskiy ... 26.8
#4 - Florida Panthers - Sergei Bobrovsky ............. 22.2
.
#10 - Pittsburgh Penguins - Tristan Jarry ............ 12.8
#16 - Boston Bruins - Jeremy Swayman ............... 7.1
.
.
#72 - Toronto Maple Leafs - Jack Campbell .........-3.4

The top 4 goalies in the Eastern Conference are all top teams in the Atlantic while Campbell comes in at #72 with a negative saves above expected. Where teams #5-9 are mainly the beast of the West Colorado, Calgary, STL etc netminders.

So Leaf fans ready to play the "Outgoalied" Card again should the Leafs lose, shouldn't be surprised by the outcome as the #'s going into the playoffs already dictate Leafs are the weakest team defensively and Jack Campbell against his peers already the underdog no matter who the Leafs face in each round.

Others might also include that those #'s reflect on the coaching and system deployed, and player personnel provided, in addition to just blaming everything on the goaltending win or lose.

Now in which potential series against which round opponent do the Leafs based on these numbers not appear to be outgoalied in the series prior to its start?

 

[Stephen]

How do those things change the pressure they were under to win?

Here’s a better line of thinking for you to mull over.

If you subscribe to the “narrative” that the Leafs crumbled under pressure in an empty building in 2020, the bad news is the pressure is the same if not greater this time around.

If you subscribe to the “narrative” that they weren’t well prepared with a game plan, well, the good news is they can game plan better.

 

[Brobust]

As we know the Leafs always do things the hard way and give their fans a heart attack. I think they will prevail in 7 games after squandering a commanding series lead. I don't see Tampa being able to play physical every shift with only really 2 lines of depth. The Leafs will suck the Lightning in at times, to play speed and skill game and when the track meet begins, no. 34 will make them look bad. The Leafs are way hungrier than Tampa and it will show.

Remember how Tampa's series against Florida went last season. They played physical for 2 games, made Florida take stupid penalties and a suspension. Got the series lead and then shut down and played defensive.

If the Leafs plays Tampa, Clifford and Simmonds must play really smart. Same with Bunting and Lyubushkin.

 

[riffle]

2 goal comeback - something the Leafs have done many times this season.

"A rEmArKaBlE cOmEbAcK!!" - the hyperbole of your posts is almost too much

Yup, with Kjallegren in net, on a back-to-back. The Leafs are famous for their late game comebacks in 3rd periods on back-to-backs. Heck, they're noted for their wins on back-to-backs with their backup in net. We always get two in that scenario. Yup, every time..This is just another example of you positing something the way you wish for it to be rather than what it was. It was remarkable for the Leafs to wind up with 2 points from that one. You type what you type so you don't have to allow in what I was talking about prior to the game. That scenario was so close to unfolding. In a way, it would've been fun to see this place had it actually happened.

 

[ACC1224]

Remember how Tampa's series against Florida went last season. They played physical for 2 games, made Florida take stupid penalties and a suspension. Got the series lead and then shut down and played defensive.

If the Leafs plays Tampa, Clifford and Simmonds must play really smart. Same with Bunting and Lyubushkin.

Lybushkin is a warrior but ‘smart’ doesn’t seem to be a strong suit.

 

[IPS]

That scenario was so close to unfolding. In a way, it would've been fun to see this place had it actually happened.

Yeah. It's really too bad you're deprived of the scenario you were cheering for. Oh well.

 

[Stephen]

Leaf fans that live and die by analytics should be able to see Leafs "being outgoalied" against Atlantic competition is already right there in the #'s.

Simply compare the goalie stats of Jack Campbell verses Tampa, Boston and Florida and his peers SV% and GAA and he will often come up as second best in 1-1 head to head comparisons.

Toronto has surrendered 251 goals against in the season ..... Florida 232 [- 19 goals less], Tampa Bay 223 GA [-28 goals against] and Boston only 213 GA [ - 38 goals less] .

Goals saved above expected stats top 6 Eastern teams vs Campbell.

#1 - New York Rangers - Igor Shesterkin ................35.3
#2 - Carolina Hurricanes - Frederik Andersen ..... 27.8
#3 - Tampa Bay Lightning - Andrei Vasilevskiy ... 26.8
#4 - Florida Panthers - Sergei Bobrovsky ............. 22.2
.
#10 - Pittsburgh Penguins - Tristan Jarry ............ 12.8
#16 - Boston Bruins - Jeremy Swayman ............... 7.1
.
.
#72 - Toronto Maple Leafs - Jack Campbell .........-3.4

The top 4 goalies in the Eastern Conference are all top teams in the Atlantic while Campbell comes in at #72 with a negative saves above expected.

So Leaf fans ready to play the "Outgoalied" Card again should the Leafs lose, shouldn't be surprised by the outcome as the #'s going into the playoffs already dictate Leafs are the weakest team defensively and Jack Campbell against his peers already the underdog no matter who the Leafs face in each round.

Others might also include that those #'s reflect on the coaching and system deployed, and player personnel provided, in addition to just blaming everything on the goaltending win or lose.

The Getting Goalied thesis would seem to imply that the organization should spend its resources acquiring the biggest star goalie they can get.