I think career backup is the safest projection. Sometimes a guy in that category lands in a situation where he gets to be the starter for awhile, due to injuries or general shabbiness of the team he's on, but that isn't really sustainable. (For example, we saw Budaj and Aebischer come over here after having had past seasons as starters, and decent numbers, in Colorado - but you just have to look at them play a game in net and you know that probably shouldn't have happened).
Looking at Tokarski, he has a couple knocks too that seem likely to limit his ceiling. He moves and positions himself laterally pretty well I find, and I tend to think Waite is helping him to really maximize the effectiveness he gets out of that. Sometimes a little too deep. But he can't overcome his size, and I don't find that he is one of those super-quick guys who makes up for the slightly smaller size. And he doesn't seem to swallow up pucks or control rebounds very well. Halak was like that too in some respects, but I think he was quicker.
All that said, Tokarski is only 25, which is pretty young in goalie years, and he's working with one of the best coaches in the business. So the opportunity is at least there for him to improve on the weaknesses he has and try to push up that ceiling. He doesn't get a lot of game action to do it in, though.
I'm really happy with him as our backup. He seems to fit in with his teammates well too. And... the best thing of all... if he can stay at the $1M or less cap hit, that's also a perfect fit.
It will be interesting to see what goalie options are out there whenever expansion comes around. I'd see that as our first chance to face losing him... but... there are A LOT of goalies around all the time, and a fair number of "1B" types, so I'm not sure he'll garner attention even then, depending on the format and how things shape up for expansion.