Dustin Brown: Top-Six Winger or Top-Six Beneficiary?

[Jason Lewis]

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Jaso...p-Six-Winger-or-Top-Six-Beneficiary/179/68363

Let's get out of the way right now. Dustin Brown had an awful year. A career-low year.

Is this indicative of his play as a hockey player entirely? No.

With that in mind though, you have to wonder what Dustin Brown really is. Is he a top-six winger?

The Kings had a year where one thing, if anything, became pretty evident: They have some bad contracts. Mike Richards makes a lot of money and did not perform up to par. Jarret Stoll and Robyn Regehr both took up pretty decent marks on the books and did not perform up to standards.

With a $5.875MM AAV cap hit, you would have to say the same for the Kings captain....

Thoughts? I really like Dustin Brown as a player, but this is just another one of those cap era things we are having to consider with more regularity.

Click to read more...

 

[kingsholygrail]

Funny enough, I think he had a better year than 2014 as far as being a liability on the ice is concerned. If he can get his scoring touch back, I think it'll be fine.

 

[OldGreatWestern]

Unfortunately Dustin has been overrated for years. As a player and captain. His best quality is drawing penalties.

He's definitely been the beneficiary of having great players around him and great leaders around him.

If he made 4m a year that would be stomach able... unfortunately his cap hit is WAY too high... he needs to be traded. We can't afford two Mike Richards.

Thanks for the cups!

 

[Jason Lewis]

Funny enough, I think he had a better year than 2014 as far as being a liability on the ice is concerned. If he can get his scoring touch back, I think it'll be fine.

It is the shooting percentage for me. I want to see where his numbers go if he gets back up closer to 12% or so.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Unfortunately Dustin has been overrated for years. As a player and captain. His best quality is drawing penalties.

He's definitely been the beneficiary of having great players around him and great leaders around him.

If he made 4m a year that would be stomach able... unfortunately his cap hit is WAY too high... he needs to be traded. We can't afford two Mike Richards.

Thanks for the cups!

No one will give us anything for Brown even if we put him on the block.

It is the shooting percentage for me. I want to see where his numbers go if he gets back up closer to 12% or so.

It'd be nice for a lot of players to get a higher shot percentage. lol

 

[Jeff18]

What GM in the right mind is going to take him?

Brown is an overpaid bottom six player; however, he is still serviceable and we just have to stick with him and hopes he gets his scoring back. No one would trade for Richards, they aren't going to trade for Brown who has a longer and more expensive contract.

He is a great captain (the best in Kings history) and one of the best forecheckers in the league.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It is the shooting percentage for me. I want to see where his numbers go if he gets back up closer to 12% or so.

Gonna read the article now so dunno if that's mentioned, but I think his shooting % was inflated by playing with Kopi and at the net front for tap ins both there and on the PP, but I also don't think it's gonna stay as low as it was this year. Until near the end, he was shooting something like 1.9%. That's not gonna stick.

He's also not going anywhere. I don't want to say we're going to "stay the course" because that implies we don't change ANYTHING--but just like you don't want to under-react to your team when it's successful (which we may have been guilty of last season), you don't want to overreact to missing the playoffs.

Edit: okay, read it. Totally agree on the 'value' part of his play. For a team that seemed pretty in-tune with moneyball, Brown's contract was never anything resembling 'value' on public stats, and it was always doubtful that it was going to get better. He's not going to return to 60 points barring a sudden upturn in shooting %, top line time, or a fountain of youth, imo, but I also don't think he's the player we saw this year and last.

When you said "Dustin Brown, when separated from Kopitar went from a top line player to little more than a 25 point bottom-six forward. The drop off should not be that steep," I completely agreed, and I think the circumstances that led to that--knee injury, less top-six time, etc.--are well documented. It's also a chicken-and-egg thing like it was with Richards, though, in that sagging play led to a demotion which led to further sagging play and repeat ad nauseum.

I've defended the hell out of Brown this year because he doesn't look like a guy whose stats are that bad, and he was noticeably frustrated with it too. I think he's ripe for a bounceback, and the team hopes that too. I think he will spend time with Kopi yet again because we're doubtful to sign anyone else for that spot, and unless a prospect blows the doors off in camp, we're likely to see Brown and maybe Lewis rotate up and down in the spot (and maybe King too). Maybe Lewis will parlay his international success with production back to the NHL

 

[Jason Lewis]

Gonna read the article now so dunno if that's mentioned, but I think his shooting % was inflated by playing with Kopi and at the net front for tap ins both there and on the PP, but I also don't think it's gonna stay as low as it was this year. Until near the end, he was shooting something like 1.9%. That's not gonna stick.

He's also not going anywhere. I don't want to say we're going to "stay the course" because that implies we don't change ANYTHING--but just like you don't want to under-react to your team when it's successful (which we may have been guilty of last season), you don't want to overreact to missing the playoffs.

Here are some interesting things to look at in regards to this.

Brown's shot rates from 2011-12, 2013-14, 2014-15. Interesting to see how he has of evolved.


2011-12 (with Kopitar primarily)

2013-14 (W/Kopitar half as much)

This year

It looks more and more like he has become a perimeter player over the last 3-4 years. You really want to pay attention to that left part of the graphs mostly.

But I think what you say has merit. Mainly you can see the difference versus Brown's shot rates when he doesn't have to carry the puck, versus when he DOES carry the puck. Playing on the third line he is able to carry it more than normal, ergo his shots are from less advantageous positions than with Kopitar.

 

[LAKings88]

I think it was during the second cup run that the coverage showed Willie Mitchell and Justin Williams on the bench prior to a game. Mitchell tapped a very focused Williams and cracked a grin. Those two were the biggest leaders on the team imho and I knew that the Kings were going to win the cup after that moment for some reason.

Brown seems like a great guy and I really have no idea what goes on in their locker room. The production needs to pick tho for the money he is making. Not untradable but another bad season and he will be.

 

[Bee Sheriff]

where is the "neither" option?

 

[Telos]

Either way, he has the most value to us out of all of our bad contracts. His leadership and intangibles are hard to lose, and he is one of our more energetic players. He forechecks and plays hard, still goes for the big check, and does make things happen. He's become less effective, but out of all four players listed he's the only one that still belongs on the ice.

 

[yankeeking]

Either way, he has the most value to us out of all of our bad contracts. His leadership and intangibles are hard to lose, and he is one of our more energetic players. He forechecks and plays hard, still goes for the big check, and does make things happen. He's become less effective, but out of all four players listed he's the only one that still belongs on the ice.

if we lose richards, williams and brown , how bad are we , i know the shiny new toys will score and probably fill in number wise but those three guys and losing mitchell last year are the heart and soul of this team, we talk about the window IMO thesE are the panes in that window

 

[Ron*]

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Jaso...p-Six-Winger-or-Top-Six-Beneficiary/179/68363




Thoughts? I really like Dustin Brown as a player, but this is just another one of those cap era things we are having to consider with more regularity.

Disagree with the Robyn Regehr statement about not playing up to standards. Guy brought it every night with passion and skill. Not sure why you threw him in the mix.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Brown used to agitate his opponents and drive them crazy with his abrasive style of play.

Now he does that to Kings fans. He's been one of the most frustrating players to watch the past couple of seasons.

 

[KINGS17]

Just two years ago Brown-Kopitar-Williams was being called the best line in the NHL.

I don't think Brown was a passenger on that line at all. He provided a physical presence in the corners and along the boards that line needed.

Brown is no longer a top six winger. It's rather obvious that he isn't, but he can fill in from time to time if needed due to injuries or to change things up.

With the salary cap every team has a hole. I would rather that "hole" be a top six winger than at center, on defense, or in goal. The Kings will be fine with:

King - Kopitar - Gaborik
Pearson -Carter - Toffoli

If Kopitar can't get his butt in gear and produce with that line, then there is something wrong with Kopitar.

If Dean can find a taker in a trade for Brown, I am fine with him exploring those options. The Kings have some big wingers in Manchester in Mersch, etc. the are going to be knocking on the door soon.

 

[Jason Lewis]

Disagree with the Robyn Regehr statement about not playing up to standards. Guy brought it every night with passion and skill. Not sure why you threw him in the mix.

Regehr was the worst Kings defenseman by a mile. He played tough minutes, yes, but he drove down the play of every defenseman that played with him. Even Doughty.

 

[deeshamrock]

He is a very physical power forward who benefitted greatly by playing on the top line and 1st unit PP with Kopitar for most of his career. It's not acoincidence that his numbers plummeted the last 2 years because Sutter moved him to the 3rd line and this past year, off the 1st PP unit.


His point production in the past was tied to those circumstances. And since Sutter sees him (and identified him as such) as a very effective third line shut down player, that's where he'll stay. And I wouldn't be shocked if he moves Pearson to the 1st line and Keeps King on the 2nd ("KIngers been good for us there") because that line was the teams best line (and he said so) in the stretch with King.

Having Shore for his 3C next year will help, in time, if Sutter goes against his grain and decides stability on lines is a good thing and leaves them alone, eventfully they'll get a rhythm and Brown migh hit 40 pts.

He's not tradable this year in a CAP sensitive era, no GM is has an extra 6M for a 3rd line winger on the downside of his career.
and next year with the other moves the Kings should make, his salary won't hurt them.
But going forward 16/17 and beyond, it will
If the Kings are at or near the assumed 70-71 M CAp this year, and the projection beyond is expected to be in the 74 M range, then in 16/17 Brown's salary will hurt them, shelling out close to 6M a year for a 3rd line winger when you need $$ to get Kopitar signed.
That money has to come from somewhere...I think Lewis is the only other player that needs to be signed for 16/17. If DL needs the money for Kopi, maybe he retains some of Browns salary to move him???

 

[KINGS17]

He is a very physical power forward who benefitted greatly by playing on the top line and 1st unit PP with Kopitar for most of his career. It's not acoincidence that his numbers plummeted the last 2 years because Sutter moved him to the 3rd line and this past year, off the 1st PP unit.


His point production in the past was tied to those circumstances. And since Sutter sees him (and identified him as such) as a very effective third line shut down player, that's where he'll stay. And I wouldn't be shocked if he moves Pearson to the 1st line and Keeps King on the 2nd ("KIngers been good for us there") because that line was the teams best line (and he said so) in the stretch with King.

Having Shore for his 3C next year will help, in time, if Sutter goes against his grain and decides stability on lines is a good thing and leaves them alone, eventfully they'll get a rhythm and Brown migh hit 40 pts.

He's not tradable this year in a CAP sensitive era, no GM is has an extra 6M for a 3rd line winger on the downside of his career.
and next year with the other moves the Kings should make, his salary won't hurt them.
But going forward 16/17 and beyond, it will
If the Kings are at or near the assumed 70-71 M CAp this year, and the projection beyond is expected to be in the 74 M range, then in 16/17 Brown's salary will hurt them, shelling out close to 6M a year for a 3rd line winger when you need $$ to get Kopitar signed.
That money has to come from somewhere...I think Lewis is the only other player that needs to be signed for 16/17. If DL needs the money for Kopi, maybe he retains some of Browns salary to move him???

I wouldn't necessarily assume that the extra money would be spent on Kopitar, but if one of the young wingers in Manchester is ready in 16/17 it will probably be a good idea to move Brown.

 

[cyclones22]

Regehr was the worst Kings defenseman by a mile. He played tough minutes, yes, but he drove down the play of every defenseman that played with him. Even Doughty.

I agree completely. So many times he couldn't clear the zone and gave it right back to the other team. He was a warrior, no doubt and was very physical. But I was glad when he decided to retire for a number of reasons. The Kings still have guys on the roster who are capable of laying big hits and play better defense.

 

[xavi4life]

Brown was NEVER a top 6 player. He's extremely overpaid and overrated and one of the main reasons the Kings are out of the playoffs.

Intangibles are fine, Brown has those. But I've never been sold on the Brown as a top 6 ever.

 

[Ron*]

Regehr was the worst Kings defenseman by a mile. He played tough minutes, yes, but he drove down the play of every defenseman that played with him. Even Doughty.

I agree completely. So many times he couldn't clear the zone and gave it right back to the other team. He was a warrior, no doubt and was very physical. But I was glad when he decided to retire for a number of reasons. The Kings still have guys on the roster who are capable of laying big hits and play better defense.

I guess both of you guys forgot that Greene is on the roster.

There were a couple of shifts there that I remember Regehr giving up the puck not once but twice in our own zone and me using swear words that I had forgotten long ago. That being said, I really don't recall him bringing down his defensive partner. There was a reason why Sutter chose him over Muzzin to pair up with Doughty the last month of the season.

Do you really think Sutter thought Muzzin was playing better than Regehr at that point? Why did he pair him up with Doughty if he sucked so bad?

 

[Jeff18]

I guess both of you guys forgot that Greene is on the roster.

There were a couple of shifts there that I remember Regehr giving up the puck not once but twice in our own zone and me using swear words that I had forgotten long ago. That being said, I really don't recall him bringing down his defensive partner. There was a reason why Sutter chose him over Muzzin to pair up with Doughty the last month of the season.

Do you really think Sutter thought Muzzin was playing better than Regehr at that point? Why did he pair him up with Doughty if he sucked so bad?

Muzzin was moved down to help Greene, who was sucking ass and to bring mobility to all three defensive pairings. But I agree that Regehr was definitely not the worst dman on the team.

Both drove down the play of their partners, except Regehr was faster and more competitive than the Greene.

 

[damacles1156]

I guess both of you guys forgot that Greene is on the roster.

There were a couple of shifts there that I remember Regehr giving up the puck not once but twice in our own zone and me using swear words that I had forgotten long ago. That being said, I really don't recall him bringing down his defensive partner. There was a reason why Sutter chose him over Muzzin to pair up with Doughty the last month of the season.

Do you really think Sutter thought Muzzin was playing better than Regehr at that point? Why did he pair him up with Doughty if he sucked so bad?

Muzzin was moved down to balance out the Kings D pairings, A-Mart wasn't getting the job done.

Greene's possession numbers and GAA changed dramatically with Muzzin carrying him.

Brown had an awful season, two in a row now. At least Brownie skated hard.

I can't fault Brown's effort this past season. I hope Brown can get back to 15G 25A or around that. Brown also needs to clean up his -15 play. Brown was easily the Kings worst defensive forward.

 

[deeshamrock]

I wouldn't necessarily assume that the extra money would be spent on Kopitar, but if one of the young wingers in Manchester is ready in 16/17 it will probably be a good idea to move Brown.

I think I was trying to see where DL would get the money for Kopitar, which will be somewhere in the 8M or north range. It doesn't appear that in 16/17 , other than Lewis and McNabb, they'll have any expiring contracts. The CAP won't go up enough to afford Kopi's new deal without moving somebody out for money, I think.

Young winger- I'm hoping by then Zykov...

 

[Jason Lewis]

Muzzin was moved down to balance out the Kings D pairings, A-Mart wasn't getting the job done.

Greene's possession numbers and GAA changed dramatically with Muzzin carrying him.

Brown had an awful season, two in a row now. At least Brownie skated hard.

I can't fault Brown's effort this past season. I hope Brown can get back to 15G 25A or around that. Brown also needs to clean up his -15 play. Brown was easily the Kings worst defensive forward.

Bingo. In regards to Regehr, it wasn't elevating him to the top pairing because Muzzin wasn't doing well. Muzzin was doing fine. It is that the Kings were getting NOTHING out of Martinez and Sutter didn't trust McNabb (For some reason). Muzzin slotted down to help balance out and distribute more minutes. Muzzin and Doughty were playing way too much.

Regehr on the top pair was the only workable option because if he had put Greene Regehr together it would have been an absolute mess.

If you look at Regehr's WOWY numbers, almost every defenseman on the team lost possession time and goals for when paired with him. Don't get me wrong, Regehr commands respect for the career he had, but he was awful this season.