Hi everyone, I'm back again with my Fantasy Hockey projections. I uploaded a post on Medium that really details the big changes so you can read about that by clicking here if you'd like.
The TL;DR version is that this year I slightly changed how I created my ES projections, this led to a better model overall; created a goalie projection model, use at your own risk; and have updated the google sheets version to have most of the functionality that the excel sheet has.
In particular, I think I should note just how close the goalies all are. Changing how many GA a goalie allows by just 5 goals can sometimes move a goalie up or down by 5-10 spots. Alternatively a goalie that's projected to start 40 games and instead starts 45 may also move up 5-10 spots. Goalies aren't totally random, but they are hard to get accurate value projections and come with far bigger confidence intervals than skaters. My advice would be to use the goalie projections as a loose guide and treat goalies within 200-300 VOR of each other as about equal.
As usual I have 2 different versions, an excel version and a google sheets version.
You can download the excel version here from dropbox. Click the “Download” button in the top left corner to download the sheet. After downloading the file you may need to alter the security settings to allow the macro to work. To do so follow along using this help site from Microsoft.
You can get the google sheets version here. Just click “file” > “Make A Copy”. Once copied I recommend clicking the reset buttons on each of the projections pages to give the scripts permission to reset the TOI and GP. As well, for the scripts to work you'll need to make sure that the sheet isn't filtered.
If you guys have any questions or concerns please let me know. Good luck in your fantasy leagues this season!
The TL;DR version is that this year I slightly changed how I created my ES projections, this led to a better model overall; created a goalie projection model, use at your own risk; and have updated the google sheets version to have most of the functionality that the excel sheet has.
In particular, I think I should note just how close the goalies all are. Changing how many GA a goalie allows by just 5 goals can sometimes move a goalie up or down by 5-10 spots. Alternatively a goalie that's projected to start 40 games and instead starts 45 may also move up 5-10 spots. Goalies aren't totally random, but they are hard to get accurate value projections and come with far bigger confidence intervals than skaters. My advice would be to use the goalie projections as a loose guide and treat goalies within 200-300 VOR of each other as about equal.
As usual I have 2 different versions, an excel version and a google sheets version.
You can download the excel version here from dropbox. Click the “Download” button in the top left corner to download the sheet. After downloading the file you may need to alter the security settings to allow the macro to work. To do so follow along using this help site from Microsoft.
You can get the google sheets version here. Just click “file” > “Make A Copy”. Once copied I recommend clicking the reset buttons on each of the projections pages to give the scripts permission to reset the TOI and GP. As well, for the scripts to work you'll need to make sure that the sheet isn't filtered.
If you guys have any questions or concerns please let me know. Good luck in your fantasy leagues this season!
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Francouz has better stats mostly because he has been the better goalie over the past 3 seasons. I think Georgiev will benefit from being in Colorado, but I'm not sure he steals that #1 spot. In terms of the GS this goalie model had trouble accurately projecting a goalie's games started. What I found was that some of the projections required manual adjustment because the model was just missing so much context, such as goalie moving from a #3 to a 1B or a 1B to a 1A.
