Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Select 4th Overall

[The Nuge]

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I agree that the pick is very likely in play and may ultimately be the move. I was responding to the poster suggesting that an 18 year old forward could be sheltered on the third line with Nuge. That's why I wrote:

"If we keep the pick and draft a forward, Nuge is most likely dealt..."

I don't think we have the luxury of keeping both pick and Nuge. One will likely have to go for the type of D that we need, unless Chiarelli is better at mind control than I thought.

Well it seems certain that Chia will get a dman. I really don't think Nuge will be dealt for one. I think the pick is dealt or, which I think is actually most likely, we sign a UFA d man. So there are lots of option to get a dman that don't involve trading Nuge.

That's my hope too, but I: 1) don't really like the UFA options... at least not on their own and 2) Nuge is the most tradable asset after the pick

It mostly depends on what a team with a desirable Dman wants in return... though the looming expansion draft definitely helps us (since we prefer to trade futures for present).

Interesting though... the suggestion above Horvat + 4th for 2nd would be intriguing. It would give us an expansion protected 3C that is a good fit in the role, plus another top end D prospect we don't need to rush (on the assumption that Nuge is then the traded asset)

Box scores are the scores from a game, box cars is a colloquial term for goals, assists, points. I googled "boxcars hockey" and this was the second thing to come up.

[I think I just use it because I've read way too much Lowetide.]

Sure, everything you're saying is fine, scoring in junior is indicative of a players ability to score in the NHL. My point is that looking at games/goals/assists just isn't enough to make a half decent judgment. Not when things like total team offense, time on ice, PP rates, age, etc. need to be considered. Is Panarin a better player than Taylor Hall or was Panarin just in better position to succeed? Context is important, that's why people scout and use analytics.

Pointing out Tinordi, Tuebert, Musil, Reinhart, Cowen vs Gill just proves my point that your reliance on points generated isn't enough. Gill isn't just an exception, he's a human ****ing being with a career that was based on thousands of variables. What about 0.25 point per game in his draft year Shea Weber? Perhaps there's some extenuating circumstances? Maybe he didn't get the ice time or PP time he needed, maybe he was physically immature, maybe he needed to be coaching and training to build his offense? Saying that 90% of a scouting report is those basic stats is nonsense.

Blue Bullet is a perfect example of my point because he's using variables to give context to these numbers. Considering things like age, position, and separating out power play points, to build better informed opinions on these players.

Click to read more...

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Laine....All Day. Yup went there.

 

[McDNicks17]

Boston Univ. is going to be stacked.

Just noticed that Keller, Fabbro and Bellows are heading there next season.

 

[40oz]

Boston Univ. is going to be stacked.

Just noticed that Keller, Fabbro and Bellows are heading there next season.

Charlie McAvoy doesn't get enough love. He's scoring at a rate equal to or better than Werenski and Hanifin did in the NCAA at the same age. Plus he's a righty.

 

[McDNicks17]

Charlie McAvoy doesn't get enough love. He's scoring at a rate equal to or better than Werenski and Hanifin did in the NCAA at the same age. Plus he's a righty.

Seems like an ideal target with the 2nd. I feel like he won't be there though.



Smooth-skating, poised offensive minded rightie that also likes to do that? Sign me up.

 

[dustrock]

Charlie McAvoy doesn't get enough love. He's scoring at a rate equal to or better than Werenski and Hanifin did in the NCAA at the same age. Plus he's a righty.

Haven't really followed him - from what I've read, he's young and consistency has been a problem, though he's generally been much better post-WJHC. Doesn't seem to have the defensive game of Hanifin but those point totals are great for a freshman for sure.

Sounds like he's not NHL ready but someone's going to get a great future d-man.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Seems like an ideal target with the 2nd. I feel like he won't be there though.



Smooth-skating, poised offensive minded rightie that also likes to do that? Sign me up.

I had him in the mid 20s I think and everyone was thinking that's was insanely low.

Top 15 I guess.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Haven't really followed him - from what I've read, he's young and consistency has been a problem, though he's generally been much better post-WJHC. Doesn't seem to have the defensive game of Hanifin but those point totals are great for a freshman for sure.

Sounds like he's not NHL ready but someone's going to get a great future d-man.

Consistency was big a issue with him and also he has a lot of "what the hell are you doing!" moments when I watch him. So in other words I think he could make better decisions at times.

 

[Seachd]

I have a feeling if the Oilers get a top 3 pick that Chiarelli will sprint to the stage to pick one of the forwards. He probably loves the Finns... huge wingers who can put up a ton of points, right up his alley.

I'm not sure he'd be too interested in trading it in that case.

 

[Aceboogie]

Pointing out Tinordi, Tuebert, Musil, Reinhart, Cowen vs Gill just proves my point that your reliance on points generated isn't enough. Gill isn't just an exception, he's a human ****ing being with a career that was based on thousands of variables. What about 0.25 point per game in his draft year Shea Weber? Perhaps there's some extenuating circumstances? Maybe he didn't get the ice time or PP time he needed, maybe he was physically immature, maybe he needed to be coaching and training to build his offense? Saying that 90% of a scouting report is those basic stats is nonsense.

I think you are putting way to much faith in humans ability to properly scout. I mean you say so many variables go into a players game so stats cant account for all them. But can scouts. Can even professional scouts (who typically only watch 5-6 games of a non top 5 pick) actually account for all those variables too. For every single D youll be able to pick apart why they made it or why they didnt. And you could get to such a level of narrative for any D that it sounds so easy to see why they failed or succeeded. But thats all 20/20 scouting. When you are drafting it comes down to odds, plain and simple. And scouts really arent that good. I mean we think they are because they are best at their job. But scouting 17-year-olds is tough. Lack of exposure and scouting bias lead to some players being overvalued (mostly physical players) and undervalued (mostly smaller skilled players)


http://www.defendingbigd.com/nhl-draft/2013/6/28/4474416/darnell-nurse-defensive-defensemen-dangers-zadarov

Based on historical data, a CHL defenseman taken early in the draft with fewer than 0.6 Pts/GP in his draft year, like Scott Harrington or Dylan McIlrath or Colten Teubert, only has about a 1 in 10 chance of even making the NHL as a full-time player. Going back to Harrington, only 3 players in the last 15 years have scored at a lower rate in their draft years and established themselves as NHL regulars: Mark Fistric, Tyler Myers, and Shea Weber. However, Fistric was never a big scorer and finds himself dangerously close to falling out of "NHL regular" status, while Weber and Myers grew into elite 19-year old scorers in their draft +2 seasons. Weber had 0.75 Pts/GP with Kelowna, and Myers put up an impressive 48 points in the NHL. Harrington still finds himself under 0.40 Pts/GP in his draft +2 season, which means he's tracking to be just like the other 91 guys who haven't ever made the show full-time.

I think this graph says it all. If you pick a D under 0.60 ppg in junior, 87% of the time they will fail to become NHL regulars. Only 13% will make it to even being regulars in a top 6. On the other hand, if you take a D with over 0.6 ppg the odds are 50/50. I think its a fools game to think you can beat the odds that are stacked against you THAT much. And this same thing applies to forwards

For McLeod, you could pick a guy like Tyler Benson in second round, get a similar prospect and get a similar chance of them turning out. Leave the top 10 picks for super skilled players

 

[40oz]

I think you are putting way to much faith in humans ability to properly scout. I mean you say so many variables go into a players game so stats cant account for all them. But can scouts. Can even professional scouts (who typically only watch 5-6 games of a non top 5 pick) actually account for all those variables too. For every single D youll be able to pick apart why they made it or why they didnt. And you could get to such a level of narrative for any D that it sounds so easy to see why they failed or succeeded. But thats all 20/20 scouting. When you are drafting it comes down to odds, plain and simple. And scouts really arent that good. I mean we think they are because they are best at their job. But scouting 17-year-olds is tough. Lack of exposure and scouting bias lead to some players being overvalued (mostly physical players) and undervalued (mostly smaller skilled players)

No. I'm not, at all. I'm saying goals, assist, and points alone don't tell you enough.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Maroon-McDavid-Matthews
Hall-RNH-Draisaitl
Pou-xxx-xxx
Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

 

[A91]

Maroon-McDavid-Matthews
Hall-RNH-Draisaitl
Pou-xxx-xxx
Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

Has Mathews ever player RW?

 

[Da McBomb]

.... should we be worried with the unlucky number '13'?

 

[Jet Walters]

So how's everyone's lottery beard filling in? This year should be my best ever with the Lottery moved back to the end of April.

 

[Jumptheshark]

So how's everyone's lottery beard filling in? This year should be my best ever with the Lottery moved back to the end of April.

going with the Gotee look this year


when I came back from costa rica I had a full beard--but it was mostly white and I looked like Santa Claus so the beard went

 

[Jet Walters]

going with the Gotee look this year


when I came back from costa rica I had a full beard--but it was mostly white and I looked like Santa Claus so the beard went

I think you need to rethink things. If the Oilers pick turns out to be a goat down the road I will know who to blame.

 

[Raab]

I'm really torn between Chycrun and Sergachev. Like both prospects a lot if we end up in the 4th position.

 

[McPuritania]

So how's everyone's lottery beard filling in? This year should be my best ever with the Lottery moved back to the end of April.

This posts amuses me as I've unintentionally let my beard grow out.

 

[vincent1999]

2016 UFA/ RFA defence options

I'm really torn between Chycrun and Sergachev. Like both prospects a lot if we end up in the 4th position.

2016 UFA

Name Team GP G A PTS +/- PIM SOG S% Hits BS ATBLK GV TA DIFF TOI ATOI PPTOI SHTOI
A. Goligoski
1DAL
80 5 31 36 21 32 125 4 98 155 111 72 16 -56 1909:25 23:52 1:56 184:20
K. Russell
2DAL
60 4 15 19 -5 10 67 6 38 204 59 42 22 -20 1387:6 23:7 1:28 115:3
B. Campbell
1FLA
80 6 25 31 31 26 95 6.3 27 78 56 53 22 -31 1779:4 22:14 2:42 129:48
D. Hamhuis
2VAN
56 3 9 12 -1 28 68 4.4 62 71 61 45 22 -23 1197:8 21:23 1:19 144:34
K. Yandle
3NYR
80 5 41 46 -4 38 157 3.2 43 65 120 73 24 -49 1600:16 20:0 2:35 4:9

2016 RFA

Name Team GP G A PTS +/- PIM SOG S% Hits BS ATBLK GV TA DIFF TOI ATOI PPTOI SHTOI
Ristolainen
1BUF
80 9 32 41 -18 33 199 4.5 134 132 129 45 19 -26 2021:47 25:16 3:7 213:36
T. Barrie
3COL
76 13 36 49 -14 27 166 7.8 35 81 118 57 29 -28 1763:42 23:12 3:6 38:30
R. Murray
3CLS
80 4 19 23 -9 40 88 4.5 51 170 73 39 15 -24 1827:49 22:51 2:41 170:6
S. Jones
3CLS
79 3 27 30 -12 22 156 1.9 85 116 118 66 25 -41 1749:26 22:9 2:35 161:58
J. Trouba
3WPG
79 6 15 21 8 62 129 4.7 141 177 104 63 28 -35 1739:38 22:1 1:17 218:10
T. Krug
2BOS
79 3 38 41 10 31 239 1.3 59 93 145 55 20 -35 1704:51 21:35 3:15 50:50
H. Lindholm
2ANH
77 10 18 28 4 36 145 6.9 67 112 103 65 18 -47 1693:13 21:59 2:1 166:39
S. Vatanen
3ANH
71 9 29 38 8 20 140 6.4 85 105 101 54 34 -20 1513:17 21:19 2:52 159:6
D DeKeyser
2DET
76 8 12 20 4 42 72 11. 86 106 42 35 17 -18 1659:33 21:50 0:31 204:31
Gudbranson
4FLA
64 2 7 9 3 49 73 2.7 150 73 49 28 11 -17 1287:12 20:7 0:20 207:7

 

[vincent1999]

Blue Bullet Report on drafted defencemen

I'm really torn between Chycrun and Sergachev. Like both prospects a lot if we end up in the 4th position.

looking at the Blue Bullet Report article on drafting defencemen suggests that d-man picked #1-2 (in average draft years) have a pretty good chance of being a top paring d-man.
however d-man picked #3-8 are 64% likely to be a top 4 d-man, although almost all won't achieve the level of a top pairing d-man

so, beware of expecting too much from a LD Chychrun, LD Juolevi, or RD Sergachev, and note that the first two are LD which Oilers already have a plethora of such prospects, and, a dearth of RD prospects

 

[snipes]

We really need to start hitting some mid round gems

 

[snipes]

What D would you trade pick #3-5 for? Barrie and Faulk come to mind, probably have to add RNH/Hall to close or am I off?

 

[Aequitas]

We really need to start hitting some mid round gems

Like Davidson, Marincin, reider?

 

[Aceboogie]

What D would you trade pick #3-5 for? Barrie and Faulk come to mind, probably have to add RNH/Hall to close or am I off?

Way, way, way off. Barrie for 5th straight up is FV