NHL Draft lottery race II - Bruins locked into 5th before ping pong balls.

[wintersej]

Such a great articulation of why I hesitate with taking Schaefer if we were in a position to

My understanding is that he is more of a Heiskanen type than a pure offensive defenseman.

 

[KlausJopling]

Let’s say you get #2 but Misa is taken. Would you trade back to Phillys #5 if they include their other 2 firsts this year (#23 and #24th) and a prospect?
You could still grab one of Frondell/Hagens/Desnoyers, and there are some decent names around the early 20s, or use them to staple to Zacha/Mitts for an improved top 6 wing/center scenario

Teams don’t really tend multiple players tied at that point. They will have identified their guy. They would only trade back being sure the guy they want will still be available.

 

[Olden McGroin]

Flyers score, 2-1 late 2nd

 

[I am Bettman]

Let’s say you get #2 but Misa is taken. Would you trade back to Phillys #5 if they include their other 2 firsts this year (#23 and #24th) and a prospect?
You could still grab one of Frondell/Hagens/Desnoyers, and there are some decent names around the early 20s, or use them to staple to Zacha/Mitts for an improved top 6 wing/center scenario

Take schaefer and run. Take BPA and sort out the surplus D with trades. Much more flexibility that way.

 

[Olden McGroin]

Flyers leading 2-1 after 2

 

[SPV]

Old Manchester Monarch friend Nic Deslauriers trying to help out the Bruins tank today.

 

[Fenian24]

Flyers doing their part so far, Bruins need to do theirs

 

[SPV]

If I’m mathing right, if the Flyers get one and we lose it’s done today?

 

[BruinDust]

I know that Schaefer has amazing skates and a good shot, but I just don't see picking a defenseman that high to be a sharpshooter unless it's the second coming of Ray Bourque. We have seen Erik Karlsson (15th overall) put up 53 points but is still -26. We have seen Dahlin and Power, both number one overall picks, and Buffalo is still missing the playoffs. Power is a -13 for 40 points, Dahlin is +12 for 66 points, and if you put them together that's two #1s for a negative rated defenseman at more or less output what you get from one offensive star (and for what, if any, sacrificed defense?).

Buffalo's record this year in the 9 games Dahlin missed.....0-7-2. In the games he played they have a .536 pts. % (35-30-5) and would of been battling right now for a playoff spot.

If Schaefer is another Dahlin and he's available when the Bruins pick (even if No.1), you take him every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

 

[Ace0813]

OTT ties it up

 

[Olden McGroin]

Flyers score, 3-2 mid 3rd old friend Hathaway with the marker

 

[Ace0813]

lets go Hathaway

 

[lopey]

I believe you pick best players available at draft then fill holes in FA. Never have enough Good capital in the system

 

[Ace0813]

A Schaefer - McAvoy pairing is not something I'd be upset with.

 

[burstnbloom]

Notable Player Stats at the USNTDP Juniors (Points Per Game)

Jack Hughes 2.0
Auston Mathews 1.55
James Hagens 1.53
Alex Turcotte 1.40
Clayton Keller 1.35
Matt Boldy 1.26
Will Smith 1.25
Logan Cooley 1.25
Trevor Zegras 1.24
Cole Caufield 1.23
Jack Eichel 1.22

Pretty good company. I'd consider Alex Turcotte as the only bust but its only because he's been riddled with so many injuries it's set him back tremendously.
Ben
You take this list and look at the players in their draft year who played college hockey and scored near PPG or less and the only players are Zegras, Boldy and Caufield.

Some people have been saying Hagens could be a Zegras 2.0 and it makes sense...especially playing with Perreault and Leonard, it raises some flags how he didn't score more.

At the same time, that's still a heck of a player and you could develop Hagens to be a much better version of Zegras.

There is a big flaw in this comparison.

Hagens, Matthews, and Eichel all put up those numbers in their draft - 1 year. The rest all did it in their actual draft year. A year of development matters a lot.

Comparing Hagens point production in hockey east to Zegras, Boldy and Caulfield when they all did it in their draft + 1 year and Hagens in his draft year is apples to apple pie. It's not the same.

Hagens out performed all of these players at the program in their draft -1 year with the exception of Auston Matthews, and only by a little. He then went on to the most challenging league in amateur hockey and put up PPG and was exceptionally good for one of the best teams in the country. The only other forward who played D1 in their draft year drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 years were Celebrini, Fantilli, Beniers, Johnson, Brady, and Eichel.

If you're evaluating simply PPG for their draft year (I think this is a massively flawed way to do this because of how much variance there is), This is how it plays out:

Fantilli 1.80
Eichel 1.78
Celebrini 1.68
Johnson 1.04
Beniers 1.0
Hagens 1.0
Brady .78

I would also argue that all of those teams were as loaded with prospects as Hagens team. He had Leno and Perrault but Mac had Lane Hutson, Fantilli had Luke Hughes, Nazar, McGroarty, Samoskevich. Johnson and Beniers famously had Luke Hughes, Owen Power, Brisson, Samoskevich and each other. Eichel did his all on his own, which is even more impressive. Also, I think its mostly overblown with Hagens, in that in order to spread out the scoring, he spent most of his time with Stiga and Jelvik, until the latter got hurt.

All of this to say, that ALL of those players would be fantastic outcomes for a bruins pick this draft and I think the naysayers are completely lost.

 

[GordonHowe]

They need a center. Desnoyers, Hagens and Frondell all seem perfectly cromulent picks in that 4-6 pick range. If they get lucky, Misa seems like an obvious pick. Otherwise, as long as Sweeney doesn't have a another galaxy brain draft moment this should be hard to mess up.

 

[GordonHowe]

60% of the time, we're either drafting 1st, or no worse than 5th.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time. But you can't fool everyone all of the time."

Unless you're Don Sweeney.

 

[Ace0813]

Damn it, OTT ties it up again.

 

[lopey]

Look at 2015 draft. Sweeney went off the board and didn’t pocket best players available. Still haunts us

 

[bruinsfan1968]

Look at 2015 draft. Sweeney went off the board and didn’t pocket best players available. Still haunts us

No it doesn't! Get over it!

 

[SPV]

Hold on for 5 minutes Philly!

 

[Grasshopperking]

Flyers PP?

Edit - Dude embellishment?! Come onn

 

[lopey]

60% of the time, we're either drafting 1st, or no worse than 5th.

60% of the time it works 100% of the time

 

[Grasshopperking]

Awesome! Philly gets a point. All according to plan >:]

 

[NinthSpoke06]

Another point on the board for Philly