NHL Draft lottery race II - Bruins locked into 5th before ping pong balls.

[JoeIsAStud]

Let’s say bruins got choice 6 and the one of top 6 left is Desnoyers
Habs nation get wet when they think of him
If they offer choice 16-17-40-49
That would give bruins 6 choices in first 60 !
You do it ???

As much as I love Carter Bear and might be able to get him at 16/17, I think i would say no. Although if you could turn the Bruins pick into Bear, Howard (trade other #1 to Tampa), and 2 seconds, that does get interesting

 

[McBrom7]

Senators lineup against the Flyers today. Looks like they’re sitting a few key guys:



A flyers win would put them at 77 points, but the Bruins have the regulation wins tie breaker on them. Bruins lose and a Flyer’s point (hopefully 2) today locks up 4.

 

[GordonHowe]

Late to the party

Who?

 

[McBrom7]

for fun i went back and found the all the picks at those spots from the 2003 draft up to last year.
tl:dr - the 6th pick might be cursed. so many old friends show up

2003
6: Milan Michalek
vs
16: Steve Bernier
17: Zach Parise
40: Cory Urquhart
49: Shea Weber

2004
6: Al Montoya
vs
16: Petteri Nokaleinen
17: Marek Schwarz
40: Grant Lewis
49: Carl Soderberg

2005
6: Gilbert Brule
vs
16: Alex Bourrett
17: Martin Hanzal
40: Michael Sauer
39: Chad Denny

2006
6: Derrick Brassard
vs
16: Ty Wishart
17: Trevor Lewis
40: Ondrej Fiala
49: Ben Maxwell

2007
6: Sam Gagner
vs
16: Colton Gillies
17: Alexei Cherepanov
40: Michal Repik
49: Trevor Cann

2008
6: Nikita Filitov
vs
16: Joe Colborne
17: Jake Gardiner
40: Aaron Ness
49: Jared Stall

2009
6: Oliver Ekmann-Larson
vs
16: Nick Leddy
17: David Rundblad
40: Anton Lander
49: Stefan Elliot

2010
6: Brett Connolly
vs
16: Vladimir Tarasenko
17: Joey Hishon
40: Christian Thomas
49: Calvin Pickard

2011
6: Mika Zibanejad
vs
16: Joel Armia
17: Nathan Beaulieau
40: Koko!!!
49: Chris Gibson

2012
6: Hampus Lindholm
vs
16: Tom Wilson
17: Tomas Hertl
40: Tomas Blujus
49: Martin Frk

2013
6: Sean Monahan
vs
16: Nikita Zadorov
17: Curtis Lazar
40: Remi Elie
49: Gabryel Boudreau

2014
6: Jake Virtanen
vs
16: Sonny Milano
17: Travis Sannheim
40: Andreas Englund
49: Vaclav Karabacek

2015
6: Pavel Zacha
vs
16: Matt Barzal
17: Kyle Connor
40: Nicolas Meloche
49: Roope Hintz

2016:
6: Matthew Tkachuk
vs
16: Jakob Chychrun
17: Dante Fabbro
40: Cam Morrison
41: Ryan Lindgren

2017
6: Cody Glass
vs
16: Juuso Valimaki
17: Timothy Liljegren
40: Aleksi Heponiemi
49: Mario Ferraro

2018
6: Filip Zadina
vs
16: Martin Kaut
17: Ty Smith
40: Ryan McLeod
49: Kirill Marchenko

2019
6: Mauritz Seider
vs
16: Alex Newhook
17: Peyton Krebs
40: Nils Hoglander
49: Matthew Robertson

2020
6: Jamie Drysdale
vs
16: Kaden Guhle
17: Lukas Reichel
40: Daniel Torgersson
49: Void??? (50th was Jan Kuznetsov)

2021
6: Simon Edvinsson
vs
16: Brennan Othmann
17: Zack Bolduc
40: Scott Morrow
49: Ben Roger

2022
6: David Jiricek
vs
16: Noah Ostlund
17: Joakim Kemell
40: Dylan James
49: Jani Nyman

2023
6: Dmitriy Simashev
vs
16: Samuel Honzek
17: Axel Sandin-Pellikka
40: Andrew Cristall
49: Danny Nelson

2024
6: Tij Iginla
vs
16: Adam Jiricek
17: Terik Parascak
40: Julius Meittinen
49: Mikhail Yegorov

Wow nice research. Thanks for doing this.

Definitely some outliers in guys being at the later picks I would now rather have than at #6, but the general/obvious trend I see is I would rather have the guy at 6. Most years looks like Pennie’s for a dollar.

 

[Oates2Neely]

Todays 10:

5, 6, 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 6, 5, 6 = 5.4 ADP

My 10 results:
Misa at #2 (2x)
Hagens at #4 (2x)
Frondell at #5 (6x)

 

[DKH]

Given their point % since the trade deadline would be the 2nd-worst full season point % in the league since the 2004-05 lockout (only behind the 2019-20 Red Wings), I think I'd prefer to believe the players have quit. There's a lot of work to do this summer to attempt to make it a swift rebuild.

Vinny Lerrieri and Mason Lohrei did not quit

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Let’s say bruins got choice 6 and the one of top 6 left is Desnoyers
Habs nation get wet when they think of him
If they offer choice 16-17-40-49
That would give bruins 6 choices in first 60 !
You do it ???

Absolutely not.

 

[DKH]

Wow nice research. Thanks for doing this.

Definitely some outliers in guys being at the later picks I would now rather have than at #6, but the general/obvious trend I see is I would rather have the guy at 6. Most years looks like Pennie’s for a dollar.

As scouting evolved so did the picks
Looked at last 5 years pick 5
24 Demidov
23 reinbacher (Michkov passed)
22 cutter Gauthier
21 Kent Johnson
20 Jake Sanderson

 

[DKH]

4th OA
2020 Lucas Raymond
2021 Luke Hughes
2022 Shane Wright
2023 Will Smith
2024 Cayden Lindstrom

 

[What The Puck]

Vinny Lerrieri and Mason Lohrei did not quit

Lettieri is fighting for a job, and in my opinion, he doesn't have it. The only good news, if you're him, is that the Providence group is so weak that he could be a call up once in a while.

It's hard to get a read on Lohrei. He didn't show the offense that I thought he had, and I don't know if that's because of the role they put him in. To be fair, he is surrounded by bad players. But on the other hand, we have seen the yips one too many times this year when he is doing the breakout. It makes me think he's going to be more of a specialist than the engine that drives the play. Still a young player, so there's still a chance, but it's hard to know where his head is at.

Schaefer is going to go at number two but probably not any lower than that. If the Sharks get their pick, it's got to be Schaefer, because their defense corps is woefully depleted. Martone might drop to 4 or 5. Hagens could go at 3. Frondell won't because he's too slow and the skating isn't there.

I know that Schaefer has amazing skates and a good shot, but I just don't see picking a defenseman that high to be a sharpshooter unless it's the second coming of Ray Bourque. We have seen Erik Karlsson (15th overall) put up 53 points but is still -26. We have seen Dahlin and Power, both number one overall picks, and Buffalo is still missing the playoffs. Power is a -13 for 40 points, Dahlin is +12 for 66 points, and if you put them together that's two #1s for a negative rated defenseman at more or less output what you get from one offensive star (and for what, if any, sacrificed defense?). Actually, Tage Thompson, 26th overall, has a better rating than both of those #1s put together for 71 points.

Which leads me to the conclusion that, I don't want to take an offensive defenseman at such a high position if they are just emulating a forward and not able to function at the job of defenseman. Let's take the best player at their position at their draft spot. Let the Buffalo's and the San Jose's of the world chase the historical Bourque type of player. I want to get the offensive star that we deserve. If you want him to be a center, that person has to be able to skate in the modern NHL. They have to be able to pass, shoot, stick handle, and have a high hockey IQ.
The choice is clear. The Boston Bruins choose Jack Nesbitt from Windsor!

(j/k, James Hagens).

 

[CellyHard]

Notable Player Stats at the USNTDP Juniors (Points Per Game)

Jack Hughes 2.0
Auston Mathews 1.55
James Hagens 1.53
Alex Turcotte 1.40
Clayton Keller 1.35
Matt Boldy 1.26
Will Smith 1.25
Logan Cooley 1.25
Trevor Zegras 1.24
Cole Caufield 1.23
Jack Eichel 1.22

Pretty good company. I'd consider Alex Turcotte as the only bust but its only because he's been riddled with so many injuries it's set him back tremendously.

You take this list and look at the players in their draft year who played college hockey and scored near PPG or less and the only players are Zegras, Boldy and Caufield.

Some people have been saying Hagens could be a Zegras 2.0 and it makes sense...especially playing with Perreault and Leonard, it raises some flags how he didn't score more.

At the same time, that's still a heck of a player and you could develop Hagens to be a much better version of Zegras.

 

[NeelyDan]

Lettieri is fighting for a job, and in my opinion, he doesn't have it. The only good news, if you're him, is that the Providence group is so weak that he could be a call up once in a while.

It's hard to get a read on Lohrei. He didn't show the offense that I thought he had, and I don't know if that's because of the role they put him in. To be fair, he is surrounded by bad players. But on the other hand, we have seen the yips one too many times this year when he is doing the breakout. It makes me think he's going to be more of a specialist than the engine that drives the play. Still a young player, so there's still a chance, but it's hard to know where his head is at.

Schaefer is going to go at number two but probably not any lower than that. If the Sharks get their pick, it's got to be Schaefer, because their defense corps is woefully depleted. Martone might drop to 4 or 5. Hagens could go at 3. Frondell won't because he's too slow and the skating isn't there.

I know that Schaefer has amazing skates and a good shot, but I just don't see picking a defenseman that high to be a sharpshooter unless it's the second coming of Ray Bourque. We have seen Erik Karlsson (15th overall) put up 53 points but is still -26. We have seen Dahlin and Power, both number one overall picks, and Buffalo is still missing the playoffs. Power is a -13 for 40 points, Dahlin is +12 for 66 points, and if you put them together that's two #1s for a negative rated defenseman at more or less output what you get from one offensive star (and for what, if any, sacrificed defense?). Actually, Tage Thompson, 26th overall, has a better rating than both of those #1s put together for 71 points.

Which leads me to the conclusion that, I don't want to take an offensive defenseman at such a high position if they are just emulating a forward and not able to function at the job of defenseman. Let's take the best player at their position at their draft spot. Let the Buffalo's and the San Jose's of the world chase the historical Bourque type of player. I want to get the offensive star that we deserve. If you want him to be a center, that person has to be able to skate in the modern NHL. They have to be able to pass, shoot, stick handle, and have a high hockey IQ.
The choice is clear. The Boston Bruins choose Jack Nesbitt from Windsor!

(j/k, James Hagens).

Such a great articulation of why I hesitate with taking Schaefer if we were in a position to

 

[Olden McGroin]

Flyers Sens No score after 1

 

[bme44]

Good question. I guess upside IMO I’m defining as offensive production. How many points can he generate? How creative is he offensively?

For comparison sake, surely some of these prospects are known for a 200 foot game, physicality, grit, etc. I think those are things the Bruins love. And I’m personally just tired of seeing them chase it. I hope they pick the guy with the best chance to put up 80+ pts a year, period.

As for #3 I won’t pretend to be a scout. From what I’ve seen and read, I’d lean towards Hagens. Maybe it’s Frondell? But I just don’t want the Bruins using size as a first measure.

We are all different in how we evaluate and just fans most of us . Lysell was drafted for his offensive side . I think at present it would be correct to say he has not shown this at an NHL level (he may yet???)

I value a 200ft game, physicality, grit . ect in a Draft Prospect . When making a team the more complete the player . the greater his value. Offense is certainly valuable , but if you are a liability in other areas it is concerning for me. You better be very talented Offensively

 

[pucksindeep92]

Let’s say you get #2 but Misa is taken. Would you trade back to Phillys #5 if they include their other 2 firsts this year (#23 and #24th) and a prospect?
You could still grab one of Frondell/Hagens/Desnoyers, and there are some decent names around the early 20s, or use them to staple to Zacha/Mitts for an improved top 6 wing/center scenario

 

[bme44]

Let’s say you get #2 but Misa is taken. Would you trade back to Phillys #5 if they include their other 2 firsts this year (#23 and #24th) and a prospect?
You could still grab one of Frondell/Hagens/Desnoyers, and there are some decent names around the early 20s, or use them to staple to Zacha/Mitts for an improved top 6 wing/center scenario

It seems like a lot to giving up by Philly ,to move three spots. Can not see Philly doing this

 

[DKH]

So the 80/20 rule basically applies

Approximately 20% chance of top 2 pick
Approximately 20% chance of 6th
No chance of 3

 

[pucksindeep92]

It seems like a lot to giving up by Philly ,to move three spots. Can not see Philly doing this

I think they would love to have Schaefer personally, their D is weak. Even a 1st, 2nd and prospect or 1st and prospect.

 

[Boston Bandit]

Let’s say the Bruins do end up selecting 6th, it is still a crapshoot how that player turns out

Remember, there was some guy drafted by the Bruins 25th overall in 2014 and he turned out pretty good

Nobody can truly predict the future

The Bruins I just pray make a good decision being in the top 6 picks of 2025
















(David Pastrnak was the guy in 2014)

 

[chrisab123]

As much as I love Carter Bear and might be able to get him at 16/17, I think i would say no. Although if you could turn the Bruins pick into Bear, Howard (trade other #1 to Tampa), and 2 seconds, that does get interesting

No no no no. Do not trade the pick. Time to gamble on top end talent.

 

[JoeIsAStud]

It seems like a lot to giving up by Philly ,to move three spots. Can not see Philly doing this

I don't think it would happen, because I can't imagine a scenario where Schaefer doesn't go #1. That said I could absolutely see a team like Philly offering a package like this to get the best plyer in the draft.

In terms of would the Bruins take it. I guess it would depend on what Chicago/SJ/Nashville/Seattle offer me.

 

[Boston Bandit]

Might be the safest pick.

Assuming the top 6 is set in the draft rankings, let the other teams decide who to pick and you take the one that is left over.

Then we don't have to spend the next 10 years reading about who they should have selected.

I’m not joking Dom when I say, I’d rather you make the selection for the Bruins

How do we make this happen?! lol

 

[Olden McGroin]

Flyers on the board 1-0

 

[wintersej]

I’m praying for 5 or better because if all of the centers go before 6 and we’re stuck looking at Martone, scared Sweeney would do something very stupid. I want the choice between Hagens, Frondell, Desnoyers.


f*** no, this isn’t the NFL. Bruins couldn’t move into top 5 while having 3 picks in a strong/deep draft like 2015. This draft has maybe 12 NHLers in my opinion. Obviously there will be some dart throw bullseyes in the later rounds. But on paper that’s what I see. Stay and pick.

Say you are at 4 and your choice is Martone, Frondel or Desnoyers. There are a lot who view Martone as 1W and the centers more like 2C and he has been consistently ranked ahead of the centers on almost every single list. Taking Martone over those guys would be the basic bitch boring "follow the lists" move. And, yes, the Bruins need centers, but if you think the guy is gonna be a 2C, is that worth moving Poitras to wing over? Or do you hope Poitras becomes the #2 and Martone becomes a 1W? I'm not advocating for this position, but it's not a crazy one. I think the Bruins getting 1OA and having to make a choice on Schaefer or getting 4OA and Hagens being gone already are the most difficult spots. If you end up at 5, Frondel and Desnoyers is a coin flip. If you end up at 6, someone has decided the coin flip for you. If you end up at 2, you take Misa.

 

[wintersej]

Might be the safest pick.

Assuming the top 6 is set in the draft rankings, let the other teams decide who to pick and you take the one that is left over.

Then we don't have to spend the next 10 years reading about who they should have selected.

Nah, someone will keep talking about some guy picked 42nd OA that popped.