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NHL Draft lottery race II - Bruins locked into 5th before ping pong balls.

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ok...no more wins please


#1 SJ / #2 CHI / #3 NSH
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#4 BOS 75 PTS/26 RW/1 GR (tuesday vs NJ)
#5 PHI 76 PTS/21 RW/2 GR (tuesday vs CBJ, thursday @ BUF)
#6 SEA 76 PTS/28 RW/1 GR (tuesday vs LA)


bruins max points:
77
 
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That would be in Moncton to see Desnoyers
 
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SPLBRUIN said:
Really soft call in OT against Philly, cost them an opportunity to win.
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Kind of a play that could've gone either way. I definitely see why they called it, but in a game where a lot was let go.. Disappointing to have that called for sure.
 
burstnbloom said:
There is a big flaw in this comparison.

Hagens, Matthews, and Eichel all put up those numbers in their draft - 1 year. The rest all did it in their actual draft year. A year of development matters a lot.

Comparing Hagens point production in hockey east to Zegras, Boldy and Caulfield when they all did it in their draft + 1 year and Hagens in his draft year is apples to apple pie. It's not the same.

Hagens out performed all of these players at the program in their draft -1 year with the exception of Auston Matthews, and only by a little. He then went on to the most challenging league in amateur hockey and put up PPG and was exceptionally good for one of the best teams in the country. The only other forward who played D1 in their draft year drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 years were Celebrini, Fantilli, Beniers, Johnson, Brady, and Eichel.

If you're evaluating simply PPG for their draft year (I think this is a massively flawed way to do this because of how much variance there is), This is how it plays out:

Fantilli 1.80
Eichel 1.78
Celebrini 1.68
Johnson 1.04
Beniers 1.0
Hagens 1.0
Brady .78

I would also argue that all of those teams were as loaded with prospects as Hagens team. He had Leno and Perrault but Mac had Lane Hutson, Fantilli had Luke Hughes, Nazar, McGroarty, Samoskevich. Johnson and Beniers famously had Luke Hughes, Owen Power, Brisson, Samoskevich and each other. Eichel did his all on his own, which is even more impressive. Also, I think its mostly overblown with Hagens, in that in order to spread out the scoring, he spent most of his time with Stiga and Jelvik, until the latter got hurt.

All of this to say, that ALL of those players would be fantastic outcomes for a bruins pick this draft and I think the naysayers are completely lost.
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Are you aware that Hagens is 5’11 though? 😐
 
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wintersej said:
Say you are at 4 and your choice is Martone, Frondel or Desnoyers. There are a lot who view Martone as 1W and the centers more like 2C and he has been consistently ranked ahead of the centers on almost every single list. Taking Martone over those guys would be the basic bitch boring "follow the lists" move. And, yes, the Bruins need centers, but if you think the guy is gonna be a 2C, is that worth moving Poitras to wing over? Or do you hope Poitras becomes the #2 and Martone becomes a 1W? I'm not advocating for this position, but it's not a crazy one. I think the Bruins getting 1OA and having to make a choice on Schaefer or getting 4OA and Hagens being gone already are the most difficult spots. If you end up at 5, Frondel and Desnoyers is a coin flip. If you end up at 6, someone has decided the coin flip for you. If you end up at 2, you take Misa.
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I think in the Bruins case, if they are 1 or 2.. The ideal scenario is Misa, but Schaefer would be a must pick if you're 2 and Misa goes 1st overall.

I think the most interesting scenario is your scenario at 4. There's so much that would go into that pick.. Do you just turn your brain off and go BPA and take Martone? Or gamble on Frondell/Desnoyers? I definitely don't have the answers, but I think the thing that gives me comfort is I like all 3 of those players.

It would be so much easier if Martone could play LW to be honest. I think if they want to turn the ship around fast they may be forced to pay Marner. So then where does Martone slide into that? You also have Lysell knocking on the door.. Idk it would be a tough decision and would probably need to come down to what's your macro level plan of where you want to build your team? Strength down the middle or lean into a roster with 3rd line centers, but elite wingers? There's just so many variables I'm honestly not sure there's a right answer.
 
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McBrom7 said:
He is a player that has been in the system for years that is starting to get NHL games and looking decent.

By definition, yes.
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I guess he has done enough to maybe put him in competition for a job if he has a great camp. But he has certainly not done enough to pencil him into a job in the fall. Right now the Bruins have to build a plan for fall with the expectation he is in Providence
 
JoeIsAStud said:
I guess he has done enough to maybe put him in competition for a job if he has a great camp. But he has certainly not done enough to pencil him into a job in the fall. Right now the Bruins have to build a plan for fall with the expectation he is in Providence
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Yeah, I mean.. I don't think anyone is "penciling in" Lysell for a roster spot next year here.

Just saying his recent stretch of games is a positive thing for the long term outlook on the player.
 
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JoeIsAStud said:
I guess he has done enough to maybe put him in competition for a job if he has a great camp. But he has certainly not done enough to pencil him into a job in the fall. Right now the Bruins have to build a plan for fall with the expectation he is in Providence
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Sweden, build a plan with him being in Sweden.
 
burstnbloom said:
There is a big flaw in this comparison.

Hagens, Matthews, and Eichel all put up those numbers in their draft - 1 year. The rest all did it in their actual draft year. A year of development matters a lot.

Comparing Hagens point production in hockey east to Zegras, Boldy and Caulfield when they all did it in their draft + 1 year and Hagens in his draft year is apples to apple pie. It's not the same.

Hagens out performed all of these players at the program in their draft -1 year with the exception of Auston Matthews, and only by a little. He then went on to the most challenging league in amateur hockey and put up PPG and was exceptionally good for one of the best teams in the country. The only other forward who played D1 in their draft year drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 years were Celebrini, Fantilli, Beniers, Johnson, Brady, and Eichel.

If you're evaluating simply PPG for their draft year (I think this is a massively flawed way to do this because of how much variance there is), This is how it plays out:

Fantilli 1.80
Eichel 1.78
Celebrini 1.68
Johnson 1.04
Beniers 1.0
Hagens 1.0
Brady .78

I would also argue that all of those teams were as loaded with prospects as Hagens team. He had Leno and Perrault but Mac had Lane Hutson, Fantilli had Luke Hughes, Nazar, McGroarty, Samoskevich. Johnson and Beniers famously had Luke Hughes, Owen Power, Brisson, Samoskevich and each other. Eichel did his all on his own, which is even more impressive. Also, I think its mostly overblown with Hagens, in that in order to spread out the scoring, he spent most of his time with Stiga and Jelvik, until the latter got hurt.

All of this to say, that ALL of those players would be fantastic outcomes for a bruins pick this draft and I think the naysayers are completely lost.
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Thank you for correcting this and you are 100% right
 
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