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Kings Article: Doughty v Karlsson: Who's Having the Better Season?

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I think this is a really important quote, and I've said as much to tsanuri and others a few times:

"It seems to me that there has been a categorical unwillingness to accept this even as a possibility among almost everyone in the advanced stats community, which is strange."

I don't understand at all why the conversation for many analytical people seems to stop at CF%rel.

Edit: I'd also agree the 'repeatability' of stuff shouldn't matter when we are talking about one year in isolation rather than career/overall trajectories. There are a lot of people in and around Ottawa that seem to want to argue against everything suggesting EK is having a historically awful defensive season because that means he can't defend; I'd say he CAN defend and has all the tools to be a great defender, but he's not defending right now, and is on pace for the highest 5v5 goals against in history by about 10 (if you count EK's own record, it's only 6, so thankfully he wrecks the curve for himself), and his GA/60 is up to and over 1 goal worse per 60 than some of his fellow d-men and even half a goal worse than his other partner, it's horrid and remarkable.

Doughty, in contrast, is a half goal better than the 2nd-best defensive team in the league, so one thing is for sure, guys playing near 30 minutes a game are both pretty representative of their teams as well as magnifiers for their performance.
 
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Karlsson's results are good on the PK for sure, but whether they'd be as good if he received Doughty's usage is definitely something worth investigating. After all, Doughty played more shorthanded time than Karlsson while producing at a significantly better rate on the power play.
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There's a reason why it's so good, he's never out there to kill them compared to Doughty.Doughty's the first guy to start a kill, and the last guy to end a kill
 
Define "Better". If the goal is to help prepubescent dorks win their fantasy league, Karlsson is the guy. If the goal is to win championships, it's Doughty buy a thousand miles.
 
Also when it comes to big games Drew is the best around. His game gets better as the games get bigger and I take Drew over anyone.
 
Bandit said:
Define "Better". If the goal is to help prepubescent dorks win their fantasy league, Karlsson is the guy. If the goal is to win championships, it's Doughty buy a thousand miles.
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can confirm, am prepubescent dork who drafted Karlsson in two different leagues and will finish at least 2nd in both

good rule of thumb - don't draft Kings skaters not named Kopitar for fantasy


it's ALMOST as if a huge amount of what makes Doughty so great doesn't show up in the box score. and even then, there's still a good amount of metrics that favor him.
 
Karlsson because points. And he's on a bad team (even though he has many assists, suggesting he has teammates who are burying their chances).
 
King'sPawn said:
Karlsson because points. And he's on a bad team (even though he has many assists, suggesting he has teammates who are burying their chances).
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good thing, too. if he went to a good team, say the Penguins, he'd be putting up 100 points this year. thats how it works right? it worked out well for Kessel....oh WAIT A MINUTE! :laugh:
 
Yep some fans are generally dunces. Don't you know that the NHL is plug and play? Insert comparable player into lineup = equal or better results. That's what always happens in reality...
 
Drew and two cups so far
Karlsson and a bunch of Norris trophies

Which would you rather tell your kids about?

I hope Drew never wins and takes it out on other teams for years to come.
 
Still can't get over EKs GA/60 relative to team. They're nearly a full 5v5 goal per 60 worse with him on the ice...
 
Doughty is so much better defensively and should probably be in the 50-55 point range by the end of the year. To me, he's had the best season.

Doughty is the best defenceman in the NHL, it's about time he got his Norris.
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
I think this is a really important quote, and I've said as much to tsanuri and others a few times:

"It seems to me that there has been a categorical unwillingness to accept this even as a possibility among almost everyone in the advanced stats community, which is strange."

I don't understand at all why the conversation for many analytical people seems to stop at CF%rel.

Edit: I'd also agree the 'repeatability' of stuff shouldn't matter when we are talking about one year in isolation rather than career/overall trajectories. There are a lot of people in and around Ottawa that seem to want to argue against everything suggesting EK is having a historically awful defensive season because that means he can't defend; I'd say he CAN defend and has all the tools to be a great defender, but he's not defending right now, and is on pace for the highest 5v5 goals against in history by about 10 (if you count EK's own record, it's only 6, so thankfully he wrecks the curve for himself), and his GA/60 is up to and over 1 goal worse per 60 than some of his fellow d-men and even half a goal worse than his other partner, it's horrid and remarkable.

Doughty, in contrast, is a half goal better than the 2nd-best defensive team in the league, so one thing is for sure, guys playing near 30 minutes a game are both pretty representative of their teams as well as magnifiers for their performance.
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I honestly think that defense is best measured in GA/60. Defensive ability is measured in your ability to reduce shots against, yes. But it is also in your ability to have the least number of scoring chances/goals in terms of a percentage of your CA/60. I mean if a guy has great corsi against numbers, but terrible goals against numbers (and the goaltender has a better save percentage when you're not on the ice) what does that tell you about the guy? To me it says he's doing something poorly defensively.
 
HarrisonFord said:
I honestly think that defense is best measured in GA/60. Defensive ability is measured in your ability to reduce shots against, yes. But it is also in your ability to have the least number of scoring chances/goals in terms of a percentage of your CA/60. I mean if a guy has great corsi against numbers, but terrible goals against numbers (and the goaltender has a better save percentage when you're not on the ice) what does that tell you about the guy? To me it says he's doing something poorly defensively.
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Yeah, less shots, but more high danger opportunities and many more goals against matches the eye test this year and tells us something else.

Also posted this in 'that' thread:

obey86 said:
Ok sure.

15-16: 194th out of 206 (played at least 400 minutes) - bottom 6%
14-15: 140th out of 217 - bottom 35%
13-14: 191st out of 221 - bottom 14%
11-12: 153rd out of 219 - bottom 30%
10-11: 197th out of 215 - bottom 8%
09-10: 161st of 214 - bottom 25%

AVERAGE = 172nd out of 215 - bottom 20%

So he's never even been average/middle of the pack in GA/60 (or close to it)....not even a single season in his career. Always at least bottom 1/3 and usually much worse. These numbers are absolutely amazing considering how much you guys say he dominates puck possession when he is out there. Something doesn't make sense. If he's giving up tons of goals DESPITE dominant puck possession out there then something surely doesn't compute...

So please explain how a player can DOMINATE puck possession (like you guys say) and still be bottom 5th in the NHL in giving up goals on a rate basis? What is he doing when his team doesn't have the puck? I know. Being really lazy on defense.
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To add, for rates:

GA/60 Rel Team: GF%
2015-2016: 0.79 (8th of 8 Ottawa d-men playing more than 35 games), 48.9% (6/8)
2014-2015: 0.41 (7/8), 52.9% (2nd)
2013-2014: 0.40 (6/7), (4/7)
2012-2013: injured
2011-2012: -0.2 (5th/6), (2/6)
2010-2011: .24 (4/6) 39.2% (4/6)

Usually he's scoring enough to overcome the defensive concerns relative to team but this year he's absolutely not. That doesn't mean he's poor defensively in general, but it means this year he is.
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
Yeah, less shots, but more high danger opportunities and many more goals against matches the eye test this year and tells us something else.

Also posted this in 'that' thread:



To add, for rates:

GA/60 Rel Team: GF%
2015-2016: 0.79 (8th of 8 Ottawa d-men playing more than 35 games), 48.9% (6/8)
2014-2015: 0.41 (7/8), 52.9% (2nd)
2013-2014: 0.40 (6/7), (4/7)
2012-2013: injured
2011-2012: -0.2 (5th/6), (2/6)
2010-2011: .24 (4/6) 39.2% (4/6)

Usually he's scoring enough to overcome the defensive concerns relative to team but this year he's absolutely not. That doesn't mean he's poor defensively in general, but it means this year he is.
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Exactly. You and I are on the exact same page
 
Danny Briere on tsn radio today:

his list of candidates for the Hart Trophy:

Patrick Kane
Sidney Crosby
Drew Doughty
Braden Holtby
 
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