Eram
Registered User
Over the past few months in Sabres threads on the main board, people often like to mention how we have so many 1st and 2nd round picks over X years, usually 4. So I got to wondering... is this actually true? Is having a large volume of picks guarantee a successful rebuild? When you start to factor in where you pick to, how does that change things?
To start off, I used this chart of expected value from position:
http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf
Then took the picks by year going back to 2000 and summed up the values. The result:
Using today's (1/30) standings and the EV table, we're looking at us having the most valuable draft [on paper], and that's before any selling of Stafford/Stewart.
Now taking a sum of a rolling 4 years, we get this:
Right now we're also at the highest collection over 4 years seen. Assuming we get a top 10 pick next year that will likely go higher. Important to keep in mind these are all numbers based off of averages. Look no further than the lowest team Detroit to show that there's other factors like scouting that matter. Some food for thought...
Here's my my google doc if anyone wants to browse further. Also have 3 and 5 year rolling sums.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oBHkl2Ie8g3xmLYfU-VAgt-vZbFIv2ie2Qdfule_igE/edit?usp=sharing
To start off, I used this chart of expected value from position:
http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf
Then took the picks by year going back to 2000 and summed up the values. The result:
Using today's (1/30) standings and the EV table, we're looking at us having the most valuable draft [on paper], and that's before any selling of Stafford/Stewart.
Now taking a sum of a rolling 4 years, we get this:
Right now we're also at the highest collection over 4 years seen. Assuming we get a top 10 pick next year that will likely go higher. Important to keep in mind these are all numbers based off of averages. Look no further than the lowest team Detroit to show that there's other factors like scouting that matter. Some food for thought...
Here's my my google doc if anyone wants to browse further. Also have 3 and 5 year rolling sums.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oBHkl2Ie8g3xmLYfU-VAgt-vZbFIv2ie2Qdfule_igE/edit?usp=sharing