Well it wouldn't be straight that's for sure.
Ovechkin and Gretzky are pretty much the only two players who have been a better bet than the field for awards, but I'm gonna say no. For awhile he didn't have much in the way of competition but now Matthews, Pasta and Draisaitl are all great, and I still wouldn't be surprised to see McDavid have a huge goal spike like Crosby did in '10 and '11. He'll be up there, but I think a long layoff tends to hurt older players out of the gate (they can heal but it usually take a bit to get their legs back) and assuming a shortened season it'll be harder to catch up. Matthews would be the favourite for me, followed by Ovechkin but at this point I think there's enough competition that the field is the best bet now, especially if there's a short season where variance can have a greater effect