At some extent I agree that it's a shallow analysis, but it also shows that a #10 pick isn't a sure thing. It's a same thing with #11 and #12 picks.
#11
Tom Willander
Conor Geekie
Cole Sillinger (Coyotes didn’t make a selection because of penalty so this was officially #12 pick)
Yaroslav Askarov
Victor Söderström
Oliver Wahlstrom
Gabe Vilardi
Logan Brown
Lawson Crouse
Kevin Fiala
#12
Daniil But
Denton Mateychuk
Matt Coronato
Anton Lundell
Matt Boldy
Noah Dobson
Martin Necas
Michael McLeod
Denis Guryanov
Brendan Perlini
There is a high chance that your selection is a miss. You need good scouting to avoid it, and even then it might take 5–8 years that your selection is a impact player. I mean, for instance, McLeod was selected in 2016, and last playoffs were the first time when he was impact player for the Devils (of course, then came the shit in which he was involved).
That being said, there are a lot of examples of bad trades where teams have traded their 1st round pick for a player like Chychrun, Ristolainen, DeBrincat or Seth Jones. So this option also has its risks.
If the Devils select someone like Mintyukov, Rantanen, or Boldy, I'd keep the pick. But if their selection is someone like Jost, Ritchie or Wahlstrom, I'd trade it for someone like Fiala. Unfortunately, we don't know the results, so ultimately the question is, do you have more trust to the Devils' scouting department or Fitzgerald's ability to make trades?
Exactly the point I was trying to make, I just wasn’t able to articulate it as well as you did lol