Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part I

[NjDevsRR]

I watched that Wood interview live yesterday. I never once thought he took a dig at the Devils

Folks overthinking this

 

[Guadana]

Meh. That’s easy when you show up to a fully mature team that has already won a championship. It’s not like he did anything to help them in that way.

I dont like what he is saying. Coaches gave him a lot of opportunities and time, sometimes no matter how many mistakes he made. Even when we had better players on the bench. He made money from that.

But overall good luck to him. "Not just making the playoffs " now in his past, he us making money, everything is good for him, we are debating about wasting the top 10 pick - top level asset for aged 30+ yo future UFA goalies Its better to be in his situation, its fact.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

Players taken at 10th overall the past ten drafts:

-Dalibor Dvorsky
-Pavel Mintyukov
-Tyler Boucher
-Cole Perfetti
-Vasily Podkolzin
-Evan Bouchard
-Owen Tippet
-Tyson Jost
-Mikko Rantanen
-Nick Ritchie

So, one elite player in Rantanen in one of the deepest drafts of all time, Bouchard and Tippet are very good, Minyukov is looking good. Too early to tell for Dvorak’s. Perfetti seems like he will be a useful NHLer.

Yeah, I’m not clutching this pick to my chest refusing to trade for a goalie.

Can't just go by who was taken at tenth overall as just in case of Bouchard Dobson went 12 th ...Have to make the right pick....So if five teams take a bust 5 years straight at first overall you trade it?

I would trade #10 for a 2/3C or top 4 LHD as others have mentioned. That’s it.

Our window is just opening not closing....No need to panic you make the pick...

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

I’m going to be so pissy if we trade Mercer… the board has been warned.

They cried over Yegor wait until Mercer plays elsewhere ooof....Don't worry Fitz is smarter than that .....Hopefully

 

[MB3]

10 OA + Foote for Dylan Guenther who says no

 

[Unknown Caller]

10 OA + Foote for Dylan Guenther who says no

Utah

 

[Andre Palot]

I’d rather keep Allen and the San Jose kid, then spend valuable assets on over 30 goaltenders.

I actually agree. Especially if Soros and Ullmark want a king's randsom.

Also I'm happy Wood said those comments. Maybe it lights a fire under the asses of this team. I doubt it though.

 

[MB3]

Utah

What if we ask them politely?

 

[Mgd31]

Hey where is Mike Sullivan?

 

[NJDfan86]

Players taken at 10th overall the past ten drafts:

-Dalibor Dvorsky
-Pavel Mintyukov
-Tyler Boucher (Wyatt Johnson)
-Cole Perfetti
-Vasily Podkolzin (Matt Boldy)
-Evan Bouchard
-Owen Tippet
-Tyson Jost (Charlie McAvoy)
-Mikko Rantanen
-Nick Ritchie (Kevin Fiala)

So, one elite player in Rantanen in one of the deepest drafts of all time, Bouchard and Tippet are very good, Minyukov is looking good. Too early to tell for Dvorak’s. Perfetti seems like he will be a useful NHLer.

Yeah, I’m not clutching this pick to my chest refusing to trade for a goalie.

This is always such a shallow analysis- for instance everyone laughed at Ottawa taking Boucher 10th yet he is being used here as an example to lower the value of the pick?

I put players selected after the 10th pick but still first rounders for all the non-impact players and it makes quite the difference - and Johnston was the latest as the 23rd pick.

Who has been picked at 10 the past is a reflection on that particular draft and the team who made the pick - nothing more. Perfectly acceptable to want to move the pick, but this shouldn’t be a reason.

 

[Nocashstyle]

This is always such a shallow analysis- for instance everyone laughed at Ottawa taking Boucher 10th yet he is being used here as an example to lower the value of the pick?

I put players selected after the 10th pick but still first rounders for all the non-impact players and it makes quite the difference - and Johnston was the latest as the 23rd pick.

Who has been picked at 10 the past is a reflection on that particular draft and the team who made the pick - nothing more.

I just factually laid out the last decade of 10th overall picks. Sure, players taken after can be stars, so can players taken in later rounds. I guess we should never trade draft picks “just in case?”

 

[Devils731]

I just factually laid out the last decade of 10th overall picks. Sure, players taken after can be stars, so can players taken in later rounds. I guess we should never trade draft picks “just in case?”

Imparting the reality of 10 prior drafts onto this years pick sounds reasonable but has some weaknesses that I consider large.

Maybe a simple question to highlight the difficulties in this is, if you looked at the last 10 drafts and decided better players were picked at #15 than at #10, would you trade #10 for #15 straight up? The way you’re analysis works, you should but we all can agree that would be silly, I assume.

There is too many other factors, team drafting, draft class talent, and league changes to use 10 years of picks in 1 draft slot to make a determination about that specific draft slot.

This year’s #10 pick is its own thing. I think #10 will have more value available in it than most years so I believe it’s more valuable than normal but it could still mean anything from a superstar to a bust being taken there.

I generally think the Devils shouldn’t trade the pick but I think if a good trade presented itself for the pick the Devils should take it. I’m only commenting on the viability of using 10 prior #10 picks to determine if this #10’s value and I don’t think that’s a good way to do it.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

The most recent draft pick for a forward trades I remember are:

• Pitt trading 15 overall for Kasperi Kapanen (Toronto took Rodion Amirov with that pick - RIP). Toronto needed to free up cap space IRC which is why they traded NJ Andreas Johnsson for Joey Anderson as well.
• Mtl trading 13 overall and 66 overall for Kirby Dach.
• Mtl trading 31 overall and 37 overall for Alex Newhook, which then lead to:
• Col trading 37 overall for Ross Colton

They all kind of have the same structure, no one is trading a useful roster player for pure draft capital unless it's just an offer they can't refuse, however a team will trade an RFA they aren't interested in extending at the price they would cost, or a cap casualty. Looking at the RFAs the absolute best hope for moving 10 overall for a roster player to me is Martin Necas. Carolina has a number likely they are unwilling to go over for Necas, and a lot of moving parts this offseason, they could possibly do something like extend Guentzel and decide to move Necas for draft capital.

This is unlikely, but that's the best case scenario imo in a move the pick for a roster player scenario. Moving the pick for Ullmark also fits in that scenario as Boston will be cap constrained and looking to hand over the job to Swayman full time it appears.

Here's the list of RFAs if you want to fantasize about moving the pick for immediate help.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

 

[Barry Tallackson]

We have money available but does not mean we must obligate all of it. There are players needing new deals in a few years.

We are win now mode, spend to cap, make moves later to fit your key players

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

I’m going to be so pissy if we trade Mercer… the board has been warned.

you and me both.

And not to put words into your mouth (i don't recall your views on the trade). I wasn't mad about trading Sharongovich for Toff.... but I had a feeling we were going to miss him - and he was better than his last season here.

But Mercer? I don't want him gone. Lock him up cheap now. Maybe it becomes a bargain.

 

[Forge]

The most recent draft pick for a forward trades I remember are:

• Pitt trading 15 overall for Kasperi Kapanen (Toronto took Rodion Amirov with that pick - RIP). Toronto needed to free up cap space IRC which is why they traded NJ Andreas Johnsson for Joey Anderson as well.
• Mtl trading 13 overall and 66 overall for Kirby Dach.
• Mtl trading 31 overall and 37 overall for Alex Newhook, which then lead to:
• Col trading 37 overall for Ross Colton

They all kind of have the same structure, no one is trading a useful roster player for pure draft capital unless it's just an offer they can't refuse, however a team will trade an RFA they aren't interested in extending at the price they would cost, or a cap casualty. Looking at the RFAs the absolute best hope for moving 10 overall for a roster player to me is Martin Necas. Carolina has a number likely they are unwilling to go over for Necas, and a lot of moving parts this offseason, they could possibly do something like extend Guentzel and decide to move Necas for draft capital.

This is unlikely, but that's the best case scenario imo in a move the pick for a roster player scenario. Moving the pick for Ullmark also fits in that scenario as Boston will be cap constrained and looking to hand over the job to Swayman full time it appears.

Here's the list of RFAs if you want to fantasize about moving the pick for immediate help.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Debrincat trade also comes to mind

 

[Nocashstyle]

Imparting the reality of 10 prior drafts onto this years pick sounds reasonable but has some weaknesses that I consider large.

Maybe a simple question to highlight the difficulties in this is, if you looked at the last 10 drafts and decided better players were picked at #15 than at #10, would you trade #10 for #15 straight up? The way you’re analysis works, you should but we all can agree that would be silly, I assume.

There is too many other factors, team drafting, draft class talent, and league changes to use 10 years of picks in 1 draft slot to make a determination about that specific draft slot.

This year’s #10 pick is its own thing. I think #10 will have more value available in it than most years so I believe it’s more valuable than normal but it could still mean anything from a superstar to a bust being taken there.

I generally think the Devils shouldn’t trade the pick but I think if a good trade presented itself for the pick the Devils should take it. I’m only commenting on the viability of using 10 prior #10 picks to determine if this #10’s value and I don’t think that’s a good way to do it.

The underlying point is, we have a valued but expendable asset in the 10th overall. This isn’t a top 3 pick. It’s silly to refuse to trade it just because “what if.” If there’s a good deal available that fills a need, you take it. We’ve hoarded first round picks for years and now have a good core solidified.

 

[forceten]

The underlying point is, we have a valued but expendable asset in the 10th overall. This isn’t a top 3 pick. It’s silly to refuse to trade it just because “what if.” If there’s a good deal available that fills a need, you take it. We’ve hoarded first round picks for years and now have a good core solidified.

I think if Helenius is there for us and he could play as soon as this coming season, that's a very difficult pick to trade. We need centers in the worst way.

 

[Nocashstyle]

I think if Helenius is there for us and he could play as soon as this coming season, that's a very difficult pick to trade. We need centers in the worst way.

Yes, I agree. I really like him as a prospect, although not sure about as soon as this coming season. There’s certainly reasons to just make the pick too, my gripe is more with those who refuse to even entertain the idea of trading the pick. I’m not saying trade at all costs, it obviously needs to be the right deal for the right player. This goes beyond even looking at goaltending too.

 

[Rhodes 81]

Yes, I agree. I really like him as a prospect, although not sure about as soon as this coming season. There’s certainly reasons to just make the pick too, my gripe is more with those who refuse to even entertain the idea of trading the pick. I’m not saying trade at all costs, it obviously needs to be the right deal for the right player. This goes beyond even looking at goaltending too.

I think it's safer to approach most statements on here with the assumption that the person saying them isn't speaking in absolutes unless they say they are. I'm sure even those that have argued strongly against trading the pick would trade it for a true impact player straight up. It's just probably unlikely that a trade like that is on the table.

One of the most likely scenarios I can imagine is if Ottawa wanted to trade Chychrun and was willing to do it for just 10OA. Is that a deal we do? Is the long term risk of him walking after not making enough of an impact to make us a contender this year worth giving up a potential future bargaining chip now? Because I don't think a much better deal than that would materialize. I'm split on if I would accept that deal.

 

[Nocashstyle]

I think it's safer to approach most statements on here with the assumption that the person saying them isn't speaking in absolutes unless they say they are. I'm sure even those that have argued strongly against trading the pick would trade it for a true impact player straight up. It's just probably unlikely that a trade like that is on the table.

One of the most likely scenarios I can imagine is if Ottawa wanted to trade Chychrun and was willing to do it for just 10OA. Is that a deal we do? Is the long term risk of him walking after not making enough of an impact to make us a contender this year worth giving up a potential future bargaining chip now? Because I don't think a much better deal than that would materialize. I'm split on if I would accept that deal.

Yes, but the same goes both ways, as some seem to be interpreting my comment that you‘re very unlikely to get an impact player at 10th overall and we need to trade the pick at all costs.

 

[forceten]

Yes, I agree. I really like him as a prospect, although not sure about as soon as this coming season. There’s certainly reasons to just make the pick too, my gripe is more with those who refuse to even entertain the idea of trading the pick. I’m not saying trade at all costs, it obviously needs to be the right deal for the right player. This goes beyond even looking at goaltending too.

I'd hope everyone's open to all possibilities. Trading the pick is absolutely in play, however, it has to be a damned good return for New Jersey. No goalies over 30/31, no packaging pick plus an NHL top 9 F or top 4 D for one person... unless he's an allstar. We need to not overstate our assets, but we also can't thin our roster out too much either. Our pipeline has become suddenly thin at C, LD, and power/defensive wingers.

 

[Nocashstyle]

I'd hope everyone's open to all possibilities. Trading the pick is absolutely in play, however, it has to be a damned good return for New Jersey. No goalies over 30/31, no packaging pick plus an NHL top 9 F or top 4 D for one person... unless he's an allstar. We need to not overstate our assets, but we also can't thin our roster out too much either. Our pipeline has become suddenly thin at C, LD, and power/defensive wingers.

I’m fine with a 30 year old goalie. We tried the budget route…maybe a new system mitigates most of the issues from last year, but all I know is I would not be confident rolling with Allen and Schmid/Daws combo this season. At a certain point, I’m ready to hedge our bets and roll the dice on a known commodity.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

This is always such a shallow analysis- for instance everyone laughed at Ottawa taking Boucher 10th yet he is being used here as an example to lower the value of the pick?

I put players selected after the 10th pick but still first rounders for all the non-impact players and it makes quite the difference - and Johnston was the latest as the 23rd pick.

Who has been picked at 10 the past is a reflection on that particular draft and the team who made the pick - nothing more. Perfectly acceptable to want to move the pick, but this shouldn’t be a reason.

At some extent I agree that it's a shallow analysis, but it also shows that a #10 pick isn't a sure thing. It's a same thing with #11 and #12 picks.

#11
Tom Willander
Conor Geekie
Cole Sillinger (Coyotes didn’t make a selection because of penalty so this was officially #12 pick)
Yaroslav Askarov
Victor Söderström
Oliver Wahlstrom
Gabe Vilardi
Logan Brown
Lawson Crouse
Kevin Fiala

#12
Daniil But
Denton Mateychuk
Matt Coronato
Anton Lundell
Matt Boldy
Noah Dobson
Martin Necas
Michael McLeod
Denis Guryanov
Brendan Perlini

There is a high chance that your selection is a miss. You need good scouting to avoid it, and even then it might take 5–8 years that your selection is a impact player. I mean, for instance, McLeod was selected in 2016, and last playoffs were the first time when he was impact player for the Devils (of course, then came the shit in which he was involved).

That being said, there are a lot of examples of bad trades where teams have traded their 1st round pick for a player like Chychrun, Ristolainen, DeBrincat or Seth Jones. So this option also has its risks.

If the Devils select someone like Mintyukov, Rantanen, or Boldy, I'd keep the pick. But if their selection is someone like Jost, Ritchie or Wahlstrom, I'd trade it for someone like Fiala. Unfortunately, we don't know the results, so ultimately the question is, do you have more trust to the Devils' scouting department or Fitzgerald's ability to make trades?

 

[forceten]

I’m fine with a 30 year old goalie. We tried the budget route…maybe a new system mitigates most of the issues from last year, but all I know is I would not be confident rolling with Allen and Schmid/Daws combo this season. At a certain point, I’m ready to hedge our bets and roll the dice on a known commodity.

Me too, but not for #10 when I can get a 3C that can play 2C or higher.