Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part I

[devilsblood]

Knight's value is down but I don't think it's that down. There's a dearth of goaltending around the league, a 23 year old, former 13th overall pick with his college success and decent NHL numbers will still have value even with the off ice concerns.


Outside of acquiring Saros or Ullmark any goaltender the Devils could acquire this offseason will have question marks and risks attached to them (and even Saros and Ullmark will have risks as far as future contracts are concerned). Markstrom will be 35, The entire FA class is either backups or inconsistent starters. And unlike many of those FAs or Trade options Spencer Knight has the potential to solve the position for a decade while also being cheap to acquire in terms of assets.

Knight played the entirety of this past season in the minors to OK results, has whatever disorder issue he has and is making $4+ for however many years.

The risk is much higher here than free agent/trade option x.

 

[Forge]

I'd roll the dice on Knight if I were Chicago or San Jose if the acquisition cost was future considerations for sure. NJ it would be a ballsy trade, but the options might be so unattractive a high variance trade like that would be the best option.

This would be more likely in my opinion. If this were the 19-20 devils, I feel like they'd be all over Knight

 

[devilsblood]

I'd roll the dice on Knight if I were Chicago or San Jose if the acquisition cost was future considerations for sure. NJ it would be a ballsy trade, but the options might be so unattractive a high variance trade like that would be the best option.

Ya bad team that can swing for the fences without the concern of it sabotaging a season.

Those team can also absorb the cap hit.

 

[Forge]

That just seems like a narrow minded view, Are any of the UFAs available this offseason reliable to save it? Is a 35 year old Markstrom reliable to save it (especially with a higher AAV and more valuable trade assets, which means less wiggle room to improve other areas of the team)? What if Saros or Ullmark are too expensive in terms of trade assets?

On some level you're taking risks when it comes to goaltending due to low supply vs high demand, so my question is why not go with a young goalie with potential, who'll also be cheap to acquire in terms of trade assets and use your assets (Cap space + Trade Assets) to focus on improving the skater group? Not to mention the potential that Knight figuring it out would mean solving the goalie position for potentially the next decade.

I think that Fitz probably believes that Markstrom is far more reliable than Spencer Knight in saving his job, yes. Right or wrong, I absolutely believe that he probably feels that way. Same for Ullmark and Saros. There's always risk with goalies, but it's hard to argue that Knight doesn't carry a lot more risk, tbh.

And this doesn't go against just Knight, to be clear. I've said the same thing when people have mentioned just signing Stolarz (not the same as Knight in terms of category of player since one is 30 year old career backup with good numbers, but same principle on why they won't target him) or bringing back Kahkonen.

If Fitz really did promise Keefe a goalie, I have a hard time imagining that he was talking about someone like Spencer Knight. I can't even imagine that reaction from Keefe if he told him that.

The trade assets comes in to play, but I'm not sure that any of them require assets that turn their positive into a net negative from an on ice standpoint. They may get frozen out because of the cost, hard to say. But depends on how desperate Fitz gets.

I think Fitz has clearly shown his cards here, regardless of how I feel about it. Because again, I'm not talking about what I would do, or how I feel about it...I'm talking about how where I think Fitz is right now and I'm talking about what I think he's thinking.

 

[Lou Bloom]

For perspective, Bobrowski is 35 right now. IMO he’s the number 1 or 2 goalie throughout these entire playoffs

Sure, but then there's examples like Carey Price who was retired before 35, Ben Bishop retired before 35 due to injuries, Tuuka Rask retired before 35, Braden Holtby retired before 35. You have goalies like Schnedier and Grubauer who had immediate sharp declines between age and injuries. We know what happened to Corey Crawford around the same age due to injuries.

Markstrom can be a good to very good goaltender next season, the problem is that betting on players in their mid 30s comes with a ton of risk. If he's cheap in terms of trade assets I'd be willing to take that risk, but if Calgary is asking for a 1st round pick, Mercer or Casey than that is way too much to give up for a 35 year old goalie with his salary.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Knight played the entirety of this past season in the minors to OK results, has whatever disorder issue he has and is making $4+ for however many years.

The risk is much higher here than free agent/trade option x.

Look at the contracts Jarry and Korpisalo got last offseason, goalies are expensive due to a lack of good goaltending around the league, a 2x$4.5M contract for a goalie with RFA years after Is hardly a risky contract in today's cap, especially when that player has high pedigree to go along with it.

 

[Triumph]

Knight's value is down but I don't think it's that down. There's a dearth of goaltending around the league, a 23 year old, former 13th overall pick with his college success and decent NHL numbers will still have value even with the off ice concerns.

He didn't play a game in the NHL this year and he's making ~1/20th of the cap. People will be interested in Knight, but other than teams that have literally no cap concerns at all (and there's 2 of those), Knight is not likely to draw serious interest.

What I think you're overlooking here is that while there's lots of open competition for goaltending spots, there's also only 2 goaltending spots per team, so if you think you are a playoff-worthy team (and indeed, I think about 29 teams will be trying to make the playoffs next season) you really want to make sure you know what you're getting. Knight is both too expensive and too risky to be a backup on any team that doesn't have a 3rd goalie waiting in the wings, and few teams do. A team would much rather sign a mediocre 'known' backup like a David Rittich than take a chance on Knight, and I can't see any playoff team except maybe Toronto trying to use him as a starter.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I think that Fitz probably believes that Markstrom is far more reliable than Spencer Knight in saving his job, yes. Right or wrong, I absolutely believe that he probably feels that way. Same for Ullmark and Saros. There's always risk with goalies, but it's hard to argue that Knight doesn't carry a lot more risk, tbh.

And this doesn't go against just Knight, to be clear. I've said the same thing when people have mentioned just signing Stolarz (not the same as Knight in terms of category of player since one is 30 year old career backup with good numbers, but same principle on why they won't target him) or bringing back Kahkonen.

If Fitz really did promise Keefe a goalie, I have a hard time imagining that he was talking about someone like Spencer Knight. I can't even imagine that reaction from Keefe if he told him that.

The trade assets comes in to play, but I'm not sure that any of them require assets that turn their positive into a net negative from an on ice standpoint. They may get frozen out because of the cost, hard to say. But depends on how desperate Fitz gets.

I think Fitz has clearly shown his cards here, regardless of how I feel about it. Because again, I'm not talking about what I would do, or how I feel about it...I'm talking about how where I think Fitz is right now and I'm talking about what I think he's thinking.

It's very possible if not probable that Fitz will go for the bigger name goaltender vs Knight. My point is that narrowing your pool of players to only big name goalies is limiting yourself and your options.

The Golden Knights missed the playoffs in the 2021-2022 season and decided to go into the next season with Logan Thompson (20 NHL Games under his belt) and traded a 4th round pick for Adin Hill coming off a mediocre season with a bad Sharks team having only ever played a backup role in the NHL. Would they have been in a better position having gone for the more proven NHL goalies in Kuemper, Campbell or Husso in a make or break year after missing the playoffs?

 

[Lou Bloom]

He didn't play a game in the NHL this year and he's making ~1/20th of the cap. People will be interested in Knight, but other than teams that have literally no cap concerns at all (and there's 2 of those), Knight is not likely to draw serious interest.

What I think you're overlooking here is that while there's lots of open competition for goaltending spots, there's also only 2 goaltending spots per team, so if you think you are a playoff-worthy team (and indeed, I think about 29 teams will be trying to make the playoffs next season) you really want to make sure you know what you're getting. Knight is both too expensive and too risky to be a backup on any team that doesn't have a 3rd goalie waiting in the wings, and few teams do. A team would much rather sign a mediocre 'known' backup like a David Rittich than take a chance on Knight, and I can't see any playoff team except maybe Toronto trying to use him as a starter.

Did Vegas know what they were getting in 2022-2023 with a combo of Logan Thompson and Adin Hill? Darcy Kuemper, Jack Campbell and Ville Husso were more proven goalies available in FA that season, Do you think that spending more money and term on those guys was the smart decision for a Playoff contender?

 

[Forge]

It's very possible if not probable that Fitz will go for the bigger name goaltender vs Knight. My point is that narrowing your pool of players to only big name goalies is limiting yourself and your options.

The Golden Knights missed the playoffs in the 2021-2022 season and decided to go into the next season with Logan Thompson (20 NHL Games under his belt) and traded a 4th round pick for Adin Hill coming off a mediocre season with a bad Sharks team having only ever played a backup role in the NHL. Would they have been in a better position having gone for the more proven NHL goalies in Kuemper, Campbell or Husso in a make or break year after missing the playoffs?

You kind of have to narrow your pool of players...that's generally how you come to a decision on who to acquire.

I don't know how any team with serious playoff aspirations has any degree of trust in Spencer Knight. I feel like having some measure of trust in a goalie is one of the first key components of narrowing your choices down.

Hyper specific examples are never really helpful. Generally if there's a very specific example of your point, there are probably others that directly oppose your point. But also, nobody is arguing that acquiring spencer knight couldn't work.

 

[Bleedred]

Vitek had his best year in his career under Rogalski did he not?

Various other guys have had small stretches of strong play, including Schmid and Allen.

Blackwood fell off, but the Covid/injury season seemed to derail his career, and as you like to point out, he never put up good numbers in the AHL.

Rogalski hasn't really had much by way of talent to work with.

I had a really good and well-written reply to this this morning, which was wiped out at the very end and I lost it all. Probably because my phone started running weird because it got hot and it froze up.

Saying Rogalski hasn't really had much by way of goalie talent to work with here is definitely a fair point. And I absolutely think Blackwood stinks and isn't good. I think those first two NHL years with us were probably the best two consecutive years he'll ever have in his career. He may have one year like those two again, but I can't see it ever happening two years in a row, barring some weird circumstances like he plays only 16 games in one of those years, like how Andersen just had a 16 game season of .930% goaltending, which obviously doesn't hold up if he played 40 games.

He's gotten a little better on San Jose. Only a little better enough to lump into the mediocre NHL caliber goalie rung, which is a step up from one of the worst goalies in the NHL, like he performed his last almost 3 years here.

I do wonder if Melanson was a lot of the reason Blackwood performed as well as he did and if he wasn't him then it was probably just a random happening. Kinkaid had the best season of his career under Melanson here, but he also had a season so bad the year after that it just about ended his full time NHL career. Enough to where he didn't even get to 10 games of poor goaltending the year after in Montreal before he was waived and he hasn't been back to the NHL in a full time role since. I think Kinkaid overachieved in that career year and expecting another 40 game season out of him like that was asking too much.


I don't think Melanson ever should have been fired. That was fixing something that wasn't broken.

Vitek had a career year under him, but he also had a dreadful year, which I don't completely blame Rogalski. I think he had somewhat of the athletes equivalent to a nervous breakdown with last year's playoffs. I think Kinkaid had something like that happen to him at the end here also, but he's for a different topic.

I don't blame Rogalski for things like Jon Gillies having a .885% on an expected .905% here. Gillies just really sucked. That was considerably worse than Vitek this past year, though he did it in barely more than half the games he played. Not quite a sizable sample size, but also not nothing.

I'm at the point where I kind of just want the entire goalie department burned to the ground. Brodeur and Clemmensen included. Perhaps I'm reading too much into the comment, but after seeing the things that have happened here, that may have been a close to literal comment from Marty when he had that quote that his goalie coach said ''He's played 5 games in 8 nights though!'' and Marty made the comment that that's nothing and he used to play every night.

We've seen goalies get played a lot here in different years and starting two days in a row at times. This happened with Blackwood a little in 20-21, but mostly in 21-22 before he was shut down for several months. We saw that with Vitek this last year. When they finally gave us what I wanted in Schmid, they just overdid it with him. They overdid it with Daws after Vitek was injured.

And then they seemed to be doing it with Allen. You can argue they did it with Allen because Kahkonen had no future here beyond this season and Allen did because he's signed, but I'm highly skeptical that's what was going on here.

So I think that the people in charge of the goalie department may be an even bigger problem at this point than Rogalski is as the goalie coach, but I also think Rogalski has gotten enough time here that I don't know how he's survived. He's probably toast if the goalie play is bad next year or if Markstrom somehow (I still have him penciled in as the guy we're getting because of all the smoke around him) doesn't work out for us.

 

[Bleedred]

Did Vegas know what they were getting in 2022-2023 with a combo of Logan Thompson and Adin Hill? Darcy Kuemper, Jack Campbell and Ville Husso were more proven goalies available in FA that season, Do you think that spending more money and term on those guys was the smart decision for a Playoff contender?

Vegas seems to be one of those teams that gets the most out of mediocre goalies and makes them look a lot better. Not to mention that Bruce Cassidy may also do that. Halak and Rask both had resurgences in their 30s playing on his teams in Boston.

I thought they were smarter for picking up Adin Hill rather than those other guys, because those other guys all got stupid contracts and Hill didn't. Even after winning the cup they only had to give him 2 years. Those other guys got stupid deals.

Husso was a one hit wonder. I think he got 3 years around the same cap hit that Hill got a year later and for only 2 years. Husso had that one good year and has been about as bad as last year's Vitek the other 3 seasons. Him getting hurt this year probably saved Detroit from not being out of the race earlier because Dr. Evil couldn't get enough of him before that.

Kuemper got a dumb deal that's already terrible after year two. His numbers vs Lindgren's were very different behind the same team.

Campbell's 2022 part of the 21-22 season was foreshadowing what was going to happen with him. I think he's getting bought out. He wasn't even an option when Skinner was struggling these playoffs. They went right to Pickard.

Hill wasn't that bad with San Jose or Arizona. He was okay, he's mostly just an injury case. He was the one year he played there and he's continued to be both years in Vegas so far.

 

[Lou Bloom]

You kind of have to narrow your pool of players...that's generally how you come to a decision on who to acquire.

I don't know how any team with serious playoff aspirations has any degree of trust in Spencer Knight. I feel like having some measure of trust in a goalie is one of the first key components of narrowing your choices down.

Hyper specific examples are never really helpful. Generally if there's a very specific example of your point, there are probably others that directly oppose your point. But also, nobody is arguing that acquiring spencer knight couldn't work.

There’s a difference between narrowing your targets through an extensive scouting process with your NHL scouts and hand waving away a player due to him being “too risky”. If the Devils scouts look into Knight’s game and are unimpressed and decide he’s not worth the investment I don’t have any problem with that.

However if the Devils were to do the same thing many posters are doing and just handwave away any idea of acquiring Knight solely due to risk or optics rather than actually watching and studying the player than I would have an issue.

 

[Triumph]

Did Vegas know what they were getting in 2022-2023 with a combo of Logan Thompson and Adin Hill? Darcy Kuemper, Jack Campbell and Ville Husso were more proven goalies available in FA that season, Do you think that spending more money and term on those guys was the smart decision for a Playoff contender?

It was not Vegas's intention to play Logan Thompson and Adin Hill as their primary goaltenders that season; Robin Lehner's hip surgery was in August of 2022 and was not anticipated. All those guys were signed by then so they were out of luck and had to piece it together. Piecing it together can work, we have certainly seen that, but it wasn't Vegas's smarts that caused that - it was their starting goalie going down with an injury.

The Devils aren't going to go into next season with a question in net, barring some sort of injury. They are going to have somebody they consider a starting quality goaltender. It will not be Spencer Knight.

 

[Forge]

There’s a difference between narrowing your targets through an extensive scouting process with your NHL scouts and hand waving away a player due to him being “too risky”. If the Devils scouts look into Knight’s game and are unimpressed and decide he’s not worth the investment I don’t have any problem with that.

However if the Devils were to do the same thing many posters are doing and just handwave away any idea of acquiring Knight solely due to risk or optics rather than actually watching and studying the player than I would have an issue.

The dude had a decent AHL season buoyed by a monster stretch late in the season and didn't play an NHL game last year. That alone probably makes you one of the earliest cuts when trying to figure out who should be the primary starter for your intended playoff contender.

If this is your go to move and it predictably blows up in your face when you're trying to save your job, yeah, you should be fired.

Yeah, I think it's much, much easier to try and justify a Markstrom / Ullmark acquisition going bad to your boss than a Spencer Knight one.

 

[Forge]

And again, I liked the idea of getting Knight....but once they acquired Allen as the backup / 1b, I just don't see this happening in just about any circumstance.

I think I feel similar to the idea of Gustavsson as sort of the same risk to take as you do Knight, and I'm not even sure that he's going to be on the target list tbh because I'm not sure he's a guy you'd risk as a 1A

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Markstrom’s SV% over the last 2 seasons is the same as Kahkonen’s this year with 31 of those games being on the worst team in the league. There is significant risk going with either option, but one guy is an old fart that may cost significant assets. The more I think about it, the less I want him.

 

[Forge]

Markstrom’s SV% over the last 2 seasons is the same as Kahkonen’s this year with 31 of those games being on the worst team in the league. There is significant risk going with either option, but one guy is an old fart that may cost significant assets. The more I think about it, the less I want him.

Nobody should be super stoked about the available options, to be honest. I know I'm not.

 

[Guadana]

For perspective, Bobrowski is 35 right now. IMO he’s the number 1 or 2 goalie throughout these entire playoffs

Bobrovski is two times vezina winner, one of the best goalies in the last 15 years in NHL. And still huge overpayment for Florida with some ups and painful downs.

 

[Lou Bloom]

The dude had a decent AHL season buoyed by a monster stretch late in the season and didn't play an NHL game last year. That alone probably makes you one of the earliest cuts when trying to figure out who should be the primary starter for your intended playoff contender.

If this is your go to move and it predictably blows up in your face when you're trying to save your job, yeah, you should be fired.

Yeah, I think it's much, much easier to try and justify a Markstrom / Ullmark acquisition going bad to your boss than a Spencer Knight one.

He’s also a former 13th overall pick, with an elite college performance and .906% in 57 NHL games all of which came before his 22nd birthday.

I can list a ton of question marks around the UFA goalies and trade targets, doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be in consideration.

 

[HoliksGhost]

Bottom line. We need legit starting goalie.

 

[McDuffz88]

Two questions —

1. who would people be willing to trade #10 for? 3 different buckets: (1) straight up, (2) use it as part of a larger package (ie #10 + Mercer for Tkachuk) or (3) use it and get players and picks back (#10 for Markstrom and Vancouver 1st)

2. There’s a video that plays right before puck drop at the rock with a dude with white hair in a black ski cap (kinda looks like Sean Connery) saying something that sounds like “let’s go”. Anybody know what that’s from and what he’s saying? I was joking around about it with someone the other day and neither of us know what that’s actually from

There's really not much I would trade that #10 for. One trade I wish we can do is do #10 with Mercer plus extras for Tkachuk. That's a trade I would do with no hesitations. Unless it's truly a game breaking talent I won't entertain it. Otherwise it's making a move just for the sake of it. Only trade it, if it makes sense & adds an element this team desperately needs. I would definitely not trade it for Markstrom. Even if they gave us a 1st back I want no part of it. Another player I would entertain the pick for is Crouse but Arizona would have to add some extras (draft picks or a dman coming back) but I would really want Tkachuk if going that route.

 

[Goptor]

Markstrom’s SV% over the last 2 seasons is the same as Kahkonen’s this year with 31 of those games being on the worst team in the league. There is significant risk going with either option, but one guy is an old fart that may cost significant assets. The more I think about it, the less I want him.

The hype was in January, which he had good numbers leading up to it. He played like crap in the second half of the season. In addition, he played like crap the year before as well.

He'll be a cheap option given the cap hit, but the Devils set themselves up well to absorb that hit.

 

[theoptimist]

Holtz and Markstrom are equal in value. Markstrom will cost more if CGY retains salary.

 

[MB3]

Late to this discussion but the amount of writers online speculating that 10OA would be on the table for Markstrom and Ullmark is infuriating. That kind of draft capital has almost never been moved for a goalie in the modern NHL, and the only exception to that was Cory Schneider.

Schneider was 26, had 3 years left on his deal, and just posted a .927/2.11 season.

The most similar move to that is 10 OA for Swayman, which I think everyone here does. But 10 OA for a late-30s goalie or 32 year old rental is laugh out loud funny.