Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[billingtons ghost]

but did it happen or did it not happen?

Timo was good in preseason games too.

 

[theoptimist]

Moderators not deleting anti-Timo posts? What a time to be alive

 

[billingtons ghost]

I'm in favor of having him there because he's one of your strongest offensive producers, but I recognize that it wasn't working with him there to start and then they caught fire with how well Noesen plays the net front spot on that unit.

Since then, the PP has cooled off somewhat and could maybe use a different look. I know having Jack and Bratt together works, but why not let him fire away from that circle if you can? Or try him again in a net front spot? I don't know, but I feel like the coaching staff could do even more to try and get him going from that respect.

I think his detractors view it as too convenient of an excuse when they look at his lack of production compared to San Jose, but yeah, not being on PP1 will do that to a guy's numbers.

We should be allowed to play six guys on PP1. Problem solved

 

[NJDevs26]

Posts being critical of any player aren’t getting deleted unless it’s an off ice personal attack/threat against said player or obvious thread trolling

 

[Omar Little]

Timo was good in preseason games too.

Here is a 30 game stretch where Timo had 15 goals and 30 points and here is a stretch of games where Timo had 2 goals and 10 points.

Reasonable fans: Timo is inconsistent.
Others: Look how great Timo is

Timo Meier is getting paid $8.8m (a top 30 salary for a winger) and is producing like a low end 2nd liner.

 

[billingtons ghost]

its pretty bad when the team falls behind 1-0 in the first period and you know they aren't going to win so you switch over to paradise (great show).

i do feel like they could compete and actually win a series against the canes IF we can even hold onto the position and really it has more to do with the canes being a mess this year and not us being the better team. i just think markstrom can steal the series.

i do and dont get the waiting until the day before or day of the deadline to make a deal. sure it takes two teams to trade but is it fitz dragging his feet we will never know.

There's too many teams that still have a prayer. Who should throw in the towel in the east with so many teams alternately going on hot streaks and then caving. Lou won't quit, Pens won't give up with Sid, Buffalo has Tuch who I'd love to add. Everyone else is five or fewer points out of the wildcard with games at hand.

The West is easier and someone should just clean out NSH.

 

[devilsblood]

how can you be such an advanced stats nerd but bury your head in the sand when it comes to Palat?

OTHER than his actual production, Palat has been horrendous. But why are you allowed to say “yeah well at least he’s producing points consistently?” while at the same time scoffing at people who don’t like Meier’s production? You can’t have that argument both ways just because every time you click “submit” you do it with a snicker and a misguided sense of superiority.

I'm not burying my head in the sand. Palat is not 'producing points', he's scoring goals. Goals = good. It's harder to tell his impact on the line, he's probably dragging it down slightly, but the thing is that A: I don't think this is something the Devils can fix this season and B: at least if he is dragging them down, he's getting to the right spots on the ice and is able to score on one out of every 7 shots. If they can find a place for him elsewhere in the off-season, they should do that, but for now they've got to roll with this. I do not think they are going to find a suitable upgrade on Palat at the deadline.

It's hard to tell what Palat is away from Hughes and Bratt because when that was the case early in the season, he was godawful, but I think we can agree that Palat has at least improved from that point, last night notwithstanding.

Scoring goals is good, it's a strong consideration in such a discussion, but last 20 games that line is dead even in goals. Which isn't bad per se, but that's our top line, Jack Hughes and Bratt over a 20 game stretch are always + players 5v5. Last 10 games the line is a negative. And it's not like these guys are asked to play a lot in defensive situations.

They are solidly above water in corsi at 56% but 46% in actual sog's for whats that worth. I think maybe it has to do with low HD chances. 46%. So they are not getting chances down low which are more likely to hit the net.

And last 10 games Palat has 1 5v5 goal.(2 on the pp). So even the "he scores goals" benefit is drying up, which isn't too surprising.

 

[AfroThunder396]

We have seen this team play at an elite level defensively this season, when Siegenthaler comes back and the D returns to form that will cover up a lot of the offensive deficiencies.

We don't need to score 4+ goals a game, most nights 2 or 3 should be enough and I have confidence we can hit that. Especially with PP1 playing so well.

 

[devilsblood]

PP2 is a black hole. A couple extra goals from the second unit goes a long way. Plus the opportunity issue.

Looks like last 10 games we have 5 pp goals. 2 by Palat. 1 by Bastian.

So only 2 pp goals by the top unit. One by Jack, one by Noesen.

Bratt with zero pp goals in his last 20.

I'd say maybe Timo in Bratt's spot does make sense, but of course he has zero pp goals in 20 as well, I get it's the second unit but see Palat above.

We have seen this team play at an elite level defensively this season, when Siegenthaler comes back and the D returns to form that will cover up a lot of the offensive deficiencies.

We don't need to score 4+ goals a game, most nights 2 or 3 should be enough and I have confidence we can hit that. Especially with PP1 playing so well.

Do we think Sieg's is coming back.

 

[Better Call Sal]

We should be allowed to play six guys on PP1. Problem solved

If only!

 

[Better Call Sal]

I know he's playing well (last night 9 cf's 5 sog's) but there is something counterintuitive to the thinking of "this guy just can't score, let's put him on the PP".

If we are putting him in a shooters spot on the PP then one of either Bratt or Jack are out.

Counterintuitive to the player that leads the team in expected goals (take that stat as you wish) at 5 on 5 and see if putting him out there with the top PP unit can end their dry spell?

I don't know, I think there's some logic in that approach. I'm not saying mess with the order if things are working, but I think there's room to possibly tinker. What do I know though.

And yes, I know that means it'd likely require moving Jack or Bratt from their spot which means I'm just shouting into the void.

 

[MadDevil]

Telling that you have to pull up a junktime surge when the team was out of it to cite ‘one’ instance of Timo constantly producing as a Devil

Do goals and points count less when you're on a bad team?

 

[Bone Density]

 

[TheUnseenHand]

I watch Laughton play and I don't think he's a huge upgrade for us if I'm being honest.

Barf.

He seems to have taken a step back from what I've seen of him this year. Though it hasn't been much to be fair.

But I hate that guy and I never want to see him wear our sweater.

 

[devilsblood]

Counterintuitive to the player that leads the team in expected goals (take that stat as you wish) at 5 on 5 and see if putting him out there with the top PP unit can end their dry spell?

I don't know, I think there's some logic in that approach. I'm not saying mess with the order if things are working, but I think there's room to possibly tinker. What do I know though.

And yes, I know that means it'd likely require moving Jack or Bratt from their spot which means I'm just shouting into the void.

There are lines of thinking which are logically counter to one another.

And I do understand the idea of getting Timo going with the top PP and hope that spills over to his 5v5 play.

But I am a little concerned about putting a goal scorer who just can't buy a goal on the top unit.

Though as mentioned Bratt's not scoring pp goals either so why not? Maybe just mix Timo in and out. Can mix him in and out of Noesen's spot as well. Though Bratt, as someone who can carry the puck, makes a lot more sense on the 2nd unit then Noesen does.

Jesus, Hughes only has one pp goal in his last 20 as well. So Bratt and Jack combine for 1 in their last 20. Bastian has as many as both of them combined.

 

[dgibb10]

Counterintuitive to the player that leads the team in expected goals (take that stat as you wish) at 5 on 5 and see if putting him out there with the top PP unit can end their dry spell?

I don't know, I think there's some logic in that approach. I'm not saying mess with the order if things are working, but I think there's room to possibly tinker. What do I know though.

And yes, I know that means it'd likely require moving Jack or Bratt from their spot which means I'm just shouting into the void.

NJD changed the power play 3 games ago by adding Nico Hischier onto it.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Here is a 30 game stretch where Timo had 15 goals and 30 points and here is a stretch of games where Timo had 2 goals and 10 points.

Reasonable fans: Timo is inconsistent.
Others: Look how great Timo is

Timo Meier is getting paid $8.8m (a top 30 salary for a winger) and is producing like a low end 2nd liner.

so you expect every player to score at their career ppg every game or two?

most players go through streaks of hot and cold. I'm not sure how this is some sort of revelation.

The notion that Timo has not been producing his entire time in NJ is not true. That is the post that started this entire thing, which is what I responded to.

 

[Better Call Sal]

NJD changed the power play 3 games ago by adding Nico Hischier onto it.

I'm talking about Timo's dry spell. Not the PP. And even with Nico out, they still never put Timo on that unit. I get it, he's not a center and they didn't want to mess with the rest of the unit to fit him there. But it's still wild to not even give it a try since that first part of the season.

And that's not exactly a change in putting Nico back on PP1 when he returned. More like restoring things to their natural order.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

fire tom fitzgerald

They don't need to fire him, they need to add a second GM. Fitz can do what he does best, add players in the offseason and the second GM can run the season while Fitz hibernates as per usual. LOL

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Fitzgerald seems to love every big name player that is available, it doesn't matter if the player is good or not. Sometimes it brings good results (Hamilton, Markström), sometimes it brings really bad results (Palat; it was also rumored the Devils were interested in Stamkos last summer, but Fitzgerald was lucky when Stamkos chose the Predators).

 

[Nocashstyle]

I think it’s time to put the lines in a blender. 5v5 offense needs a shakeup.

As great as Jack and Bratt are together, it might be time to try to spread them out.

It’s not like Mercer has earned a top 6 promotion, but Palat has been a mainstay for no great reason either. I think it might be worth giving Mercer some better looks.

Why is Dowling an everyday NHLer right now? He brings next to nothing and has played more than enough games to show what he has. Hell, I’d rather see Willman get in a few games or something.

 

[RSeen]

Doubt someone like McTavish is available but Weekes reported there was trade buzz around him in December (just read an ESPN article that referenced this).

I'd trade Nemec+ to make that happen, feels like that would make sense for both teams but Nemec's value might be too diminished for the Ducks to want to do that.

 

[Brodeur]

Fitzgerald seems to love every big name player that is available, it doesn't matter if the player is good or not. Sometimes it brings good results (Hamilton, Markström), sometimes it brings really bad results (Palat; it was also rumored the Devils were interested in Stamkos last summer, but Fitzgerald was lucky when Stamkos chose the Predators).

I think the story was that Stamkos' camp reached out to the Devils but we didn't have the cap space to make an offer. Fitz was interested in Marchessault though.

 

[devilsblood]

Doubt someone like McTavish is available but Weekes reported there was trade buzz around him in December (just read an ESPN article that referenced this).

I'd trade Nemec+ to make that happen, feels like that would make sense for both teams but Nemec's value might be too diminished for the Ducks to want to do that.

I dont think MacTavish's value is all that high right now either. 22 years old. Has never scored 20 goals. Has 14 this season.

I think they'd have to add in a Mac/Nemec deal.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Marchessault to NJ seemed like a done deal until NSH came back and added that extra year. I like Marchessault but we made the right decision not matching.