Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part II

[JimEIV]

All you lot throwing Holtz in every damn proposal is becoming extremely boring.

You sound like Habs fans.

I think a lot of people understand that this is probably a sink or swing year for Holtz.

 

[JimEIV]

With all due respect, the 10th overall pick alone is far more valuable than Casey. Maybe Marino too with his contract and the season he had and arguably even Mercer unless you’re confident he bounces back big.

The 10th isn't more valuable than Mercer....not close.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I lived in Carrabassett Valley, Maine, that is where Sugarloaf Mountain is located. I downhill skied every day for 100 days a year for 23 years. I fished, hunted, hiked, snow shoed, drank beer and loved life there.

That’s the life, eh?

I was more coastal. Spent every summer of my young life going up to Oqunquit/Wells, worked in Perkins Cove in the summers between college years, met my wife there who was from Wells and now we’re expecting baby boy #2 this November. So in short, I have a lot to be grateful to the state of Maine for!

 

[Captain3rdLine]

The 10th isn't more valuable than Mercer....not close.

You might be right but Mercer of last season, it definitely is. Projecting him to bounce back and keep trending well it might not be. From an outside perspective the 10th pick is possibly more valuable.

Most people here and anywhere would be pretty pissed off if we traded the 10th overall pick for a turning 23 year old winger coming off a 33 point season.

If you think he’s gonna bounce back and keep trending well and really believe in his talent you’d value Mercer more. But fans of a team and player are usually the most confident that a players gonna bounce back and get better. His value is a bit hard to judge and varies greatly with your belief in the player.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Would be a great turn of events if Holtz comes into this season with a new mindset and takes the challenge head-on

I have a feeling its mental with him

I have a feeling it’s skill or moreso skating but that’s just what I see

 

[Guadana]

You might be right but Mercer of last season, it definitely is. Projecting him to bounce back and keep trending well it might not be. From an outside perspective the 10th pick is possibly more valuable.

Most people here and anywhere would be pretty pissed off if we traded the 10th overall pick for a turning 23 year old winger coming off a 33 point season.

If you think he’s gonna bounce back and keep trending well and really believe in his talent you’d value Mercer more. But fans of a team and player are usually the most confident that a players gonna bounce back and get better. His value is a bit hard to judge and varies greatly with your belief in the player.

I think Mercer has more value. Even with his bad year, he scores 20 goals, scores 27 goals before and his down year was in the year of injuries. You can draft great player but you can trade bust. Mercer isnt bust already, even if he is 20g 45p player, but he is more than that. He is just young and had bad year. Even if he will be complimentary player - he is still young, he is top-5 producer from his draft, he is under control and already NHLer.

Of course there would be gms who would not trade him - because they can value some defensive prospects higher and its reasonable. But mostly Mercer here and now has better value I think.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I’ve been critical of Mercer for his season last year, but there’s something to be said about a hard-working, durable, right handed shooting 20 goal scorer. The things he needs to work on are all things that can be improved, strength and shooting mentality.

I hope his contract situation is in place ahead of free agency so we know where things stand. He is someone I firmly expect to bounce back under Keefe next year.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I think Mercer has more value. Even with his bad year, he scores 20 goals, scores 27 goals before and his down year was in the year of injuries. You can draft great player but you can trade bust. Mercer isnt bust already, even if he is 20g 45p player, but he is more than that. He is just young and had bad year. Even if he will be complimentary player - he is still young, he is top-5 producer from his draft, he is under control and already NHLer.

Of course there would be gms who would not trade him - because they can value some defensive prospects higher and its reasonable. But mostly Mercer here and now has better value I think.

Ya I could see it either way and think it’s debatable. But people on here including myself have been saying they only want to trade the 10th pick if it’s for a controlled top 6 forward or dman. So in saying that you would have to be confident that Mercer will be a solid top 6 forward long-term. I think there’s a good chance he could be but I think it would be debatable on here whether we should do it if it was a similar player on another team.

I’ve been critical of Mercer for his season last year, but there’s something to be said about a hard-working, durable, right handed shooting 20 goal scorer. The things he needs to work on are all things that can be improved, strength and shooting mentality.

I hope his contract situation is in place ahead of free agency so we know where things stand. He is someone I firmly expect to bounce back under Keefe next year.

Agreed but don’t think his contract necessary needs to be fully resolved. Think we probably already have a really good idea of where it will end up.

 

[Beastdog75]

It's one of the more underrated accounts on here. Probably because they don't post enough.

The Al Trautwig one was gold too... I haven't seen that account here in a long time though.

 

[Guadana]

Ya I could see it either way and think it’s debatable. But people on here including myself have been saying they only want to trade the 10th pick if it’s for a controlled top 6 forward or dman. So in saying that you would have to be confident that Mercer will be a solid top 6 forward long-term. I think there’s a good chance he could be but I think it would be debatable on heret whether we should do it if it was a similar player on another team.

I would say I'm a big fan of saving this pick but im okay to tradetthus pick for young two way player who already scored 27 goals but had down year as 22yo with 20 goals. I don't know who we can use to compare. Of course its not very concrete. We need to name specific player to decide. IMHO Mercer deserve to be traded for 10th pick(if Buium or Dickinson are not available). I value defensemen much higher.

Again its far away from concrete. Would I trade Mercer for McGriarty? Me personally- no. It was the beggining of convention. Would I trade 10th pick - may be, if Buium and Dickinson are not available. I like Solberg and Nygard more, Chernyshov has better skating and some other attributes, but we need to wait them more. In Buium case especially I'm okay to wait and I believe he will be ready sooner.

 

[JimEIV]

You might be right but Mercer of last season, it definitely is. Projecting him to bounce back and keep trending well it might not be. From an outside perspective the 10th pick is possibly more valuable.

Most people here and anywhere would be pretty pissed off if we traded the 10th overall pick for a turning 23 year old winger coming off a 33 point season.

If you think he’s gonna bounce back and keep trending well and really believe in his talent you’d value Mercer more. But fans of a team and player are usually the most confident that a players gonna bounce back and get better. His value is a bit hard to judge and varies greatly with your belief in the player.

Even with last season he's 5th in scoring from the 2020 draft. He's scored as many goals as Jarvis in the last 3 years and two of the years Mercer's team was bottom 10 in the league.

I don't think his value is hard to judge all. He's right there with Jarvis and Lundell and the rough year last year doesn't really detract from value in my opinion...3 years of 82 games, 64 goals and 131 points on an ELC is phenomenal.

 

[Guadana]

Yeah, three seasons of 82 games with pk time is something really interesting. Devils should value that with so many big and small injuries of Jack and Nico.

 

[britdevil]

The 10th isn't more valuable than Mercer....not close.

It's laughable how overrated prospects are on this board (HF as a whole), though it is unsurprising giving it's literally called hockey's future.

I've been reading the same diatribe on this board for 16+ years.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

you value John Marino more than you value Seamus Casey? That's surprising considering the season he just put together, and the fact that he has a NMC that kicks in 8 days from now.

Trading Casey instead of Marino gets us closer to a Stanley Cup in the next two years

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Even with last season he's 5th in scoring from the 2020 draft. He's scored as many goals as Jarvis in the last 3 years and two of the years Mercer's team was bottom 10 in the league.

I don't think his value is hard to judge all. He's right there with Jarvis and Lundell and the rough year last year doesn't really detract from value in my opinion...3 years of 82 games, 64 goals and 131 points on an ELC is phenomenal.

I’m not doubting the impressiveness of his first two seasons. His rough year absolutely detracts from his value however without question and his value is hard to judge. That’s why he’ll likely get a bridge deal rather than long term deal like a lot of people thought last season. We don’t really know what he is and will be long-term at this point.

As for the two players mentioned. I think it’s reasonable to put him with Lundell value wise. I’d have really think about whether I’d want to trade the 10th overall pick for Lundell. It’s not a slam dunk where you’re getting a forsure top 6 piece for the future.

Jarvis on the other has clearly superior value to Mercer and Lundell. Had a less impressive first two seasons but is the more skilled player and just had a huge breakout season. I would be very confident that I’m getting a definite top 6 player and potentially a top line player for the foreseeable future.

 

[njdevils1982]

It's laughable how overrated prospects are on this board (HF as a whole), though it is unsurprising giving it's literally called hockey's future.

I've been reading the same diatribe on this board for 16+ years.

oh the irony that hockey's future stopped doing the prospect depth charts and letter and number grading section eons ago

 

[Captain3rdLine]

It's laughable how overrated prospects are on this board (HF as a whole), though it is unsurprising giving it's literally called hockey's future.

I've been reading the same diatribe on this board for 16+ years.

There’s nothing laughable about suggesting a 10th overall pick may have somewhat comparable value to a player who just put up 33 points last season. I know that’s not an entirely fair characterization that is missing a lot of context but the point stands. We tend to overrate our own players that we like because in Mercer’s case we’re certain he’ll bounce all the way back and continue growing. Not a guarentee and we wouldn’t be nearly as certain of it as fans of another team.

Same reason most people are talking about giving him a bridge deal. We don’t no forsure what he’s gonna be.

And the 10th overall pick has considerable value. If you do it right you can get a star or at least a very good player. Obviously far from a guarantee as well but it has significant value.

 

[Goptor]

Trading Casey instead of Marino gets us closer to a Stanley Cup in the next two years

The Devils are thin on draft picks and thin on prospects.

You need young guys because thats how you fill out a roster in a salary cap era. Trading Casey and other prospects away will just leave the team top heavy with a bunch of Brendan Smiths rounding out your depth. A good way to never win the Stanley Cup.

 

[JimEIV]

It's laughable how overrated prospects are on this board (HF as a whole), though it is unsurprising giving it's literally called hockey's future.

I've been reading the same diatribe on this board for 16+ years.

1st round picks are pretty valuable though...

What was I heard during the Panthers/Oilers broadcast the other night? I don't remember the exact percentage but it was something 60% of starting players in the league were former 1st round picks... don't quote me the percentages...but it was a big number. I was doing something when Steve Levy said it and remember thinking wow that's surprising.

But I also think they do get overrated.

There’s nothing laughable about suggesting a 10th overall pick may have somewhat comparable value to a player who just put up 33 points last season. I know that’s not an entirely fair characterization that is missing a lot of context but the point stands. We tend to overrate our own players that we like because in Mercer’s case we’re certain he’ll bounce all the way back and continue growing. Not a guarentee and we wouldn’t be nearly as certain of it as fans of another team.

Same reason most people are talking about giving him a bridge deal. We don’t no forsure what he’s gonna be.

And the 10th overall pick has considerable value. If you do it right you can get a star or at least a very good player. Obviously far from a guarantee as well but it has significant value.

Ive watched a #1OA put up 21 points....just saying.

 

[None Shall Pass]

RW is so far down on the list of priorities that using any tradeable asset to get one, let alone one who has not even played an NHL game, is just making moves to say that you did.

We need, in no particular order:
-A top-4 LD
-A middle six or third line center
-A top-6 LW maybe
-Some mean forwards who can play

We have a surplus of talented RD and RD prospects, and a surplus of talented RW and RW prospects. Use that surplus to improve areas of need, not buy lottery tickets.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

1st round picks are pretty valuable though...

What was I heard during the Panthers/Oilers broadcast the other night? I don't remember the exact percentage but it was something 60% of starting players in the league were former 1st round picks... don't quote me the percentages...but it was a big number. I was doing something when Steve Levy said it and remember thinking wow that's surprising.

But I also think they do get overrated.


Ive watched a #1OA put up 21 points....just saying.

As an 18 year old child looking rookie what is your point? Like how is that even the slightest the slightest bit relevant to this discussion.

 

[britdevil]

oh the irony that hockey's future stopped doing the prospect depth charts and letter and number grading section eons ago

Holtzy might only get a 7C this coming season. Not good.

Or has he graduated by their old metric? Can't remember.

 

[Billdo]

With all due respect, the 10th overall pick alone is far more valuable than Casey. Maybe Marino too with his contract and the season he had and arguably even Mercer unless you’re confident he bounces back big.

With all due respect, you're wrong. Like really wrong.

 

[JimEIV]

As an 18 year old child looking rookie what is your point? Like how is that even the slightest the slightest bit relevant to this discussion.

My point was there are circumstances that always should be considered.

You think Timo would've scored 20 goals this season with little PP time from the bottom 6? Timo had 2 more Even Strength goals than Mercer did this season....so did Jack Hughes.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

With all due respect, you're wrong. Like really wrong.

I just talked about it in a bunch of other posts but it’s a perfectly reasonable discussion.

Jim compared his value to Lundell’s. If we were offered Lundell for 10th overall, would that be a slam dunk no questions asked yes for you?