Despite major challanges, Kyle Dubas has passed the tests

[Dekes For Days]

what AM signed for should have been for 8yrs and i doubt AM wanted to go 8yrs regardless of the how much more he could have reasonably gotten for 3 extra yrs

Matthews was open to 8 years, but his cap hit percentage and 5 year term is consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

what AM signed for should have been for 8yrs and i doubt AM wanted to go 8yrs regardless of the how much more he could have reasonably gotten for 3 extra yrs

AM's agent Bobby Orr said he reduced the term to 5yrs to make it manageable for the team by reducing his cap hit. That says to me he would have signed for 8yrs had the deal been put in front of him.

 

[Mess]

AM's agent Bobby Orr said he reduced the term to 5yrs to make it manageable for the team by reducing his cap hit. That says to me he would have signed for 8yrs had the deal been put in front of him.

Here is the problem and its simply Math and making smart business decisions.

McDavid's deal 8 years @ $12.5 mil was the ceiling for all contracts as the best player in the game. (of which Edmonton purchased 4 UFA years in addition to 4 RFA)

Matthews deal should have been 8 years at $11.64 mil and not 5 years at that rate ( because 4 years where cost controllable RFA years and only 1 year was UFA).

Dubas claimed at time of signing that is all he could afford to for cap reasons, which suggest that each additional UFA year he would purchase was going to drive the AAV even higher, because he was getting played and was paying far too much for the 4 RFA years. In contrast Matthews RFA years at $11.64 mil was more than Tavares open market UFA years at $11 mil.

However the difference between McDavid @ $12.5 mil and Matthews at $11.64 mil is only $860k extra.

So even if Dubas gave Matthews the exact same McDavid deal [8 years $100 mil] then he could have bought 3 more UFA years from a mere $860k more or basically the cost of league minimum player, and Leafs franchise player would have been locked up for 8 years not 5.

So now due to gross incompetence by Dubas the Leafs either risk losing their franchise player in a couple years for nothing if he leaves, and if he stays, his next contract is going to shatter all league norms coming off a 60 goal season and multiple Rocket trophies. So 20% C.H% CBA allowable per individual player at $83 mil cap ceiling = $16.6 max.

So lets say Matthews gives the Leafs a home town discount of conservative $15 mil per. Then if you then overlap it with the McDavid deal its;

5 years @ $11.64 mil + next 3 years @$15 mil for a total of 8 years = $58,195,000 current deal + $45,000,000 mil for next 3 = $103,195,000 mil [ more than McDavid $100,000,000 mill]

So Leafs will be paying MORE for Matthews than McDavid over the same time period of 8 years, and what makes this GM incompetence even worse is if then re-signed Matthews new AAV goes up to $15 mil AAV,

$15 mil new AAV - $11.64 mil old AAV = +$3.36 mil more cap space extra (the additional 3 years) than had he got them for only $860k more had he given him $12.5 mil for 8.

Would you rather have McDavid for $12.5 mil AAV or Matthews for $15-16 mil per AAV for those same extra 3 years?

PS. Its the same CAP HELL situation with Marner who should have been signed to the Draisaitl deal of 8 X $8.5 mil, instead of his $10.93 mil X 6 deal because of what his next contract will be.

If Leaf fans think Matthews + Marner + Tavares of 3 players making $33 mil is bad, wait to you see Matthew and Marner's next deals combined which are now likely to = ~ $30 AAV cap space or more perhaps all due to a greenhorn GM botching of all these contracts. Leafs are going to have to let Tavares walk just to use his $11 mil divided between re-signing Auston and Mitch top their new BIG raises.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Here is the problem.

McDavid's deal 8 years @ $12.5 mil was the ceiling for all contracts as the best player in the game. (of which Edmonton purchased 4 UFA years in addition to 4 RFA)

Matthews deal should have been 8 years at $11.64 mil and not 5 years at that rate ( because 4 years where cost controllable RFA years and only 1 year was UFA).

Dubas claimed at time of signing that is all he could afford to for cap reasons, which suggest that each additional UFA year he would purchase was going to drive the AAV even higher, because he was getting played and was paying far too much for the 4 RFA years. In contrast Matthews RFA years at $11.64 mil was more than Tavares open market UFA years at $11 mil.

However the difference between McDavid @ $12.5 mil and Matthews at $11.64 mil is only $860k.

So even if Dubas gave Matthews the exact same McDavid deal [8 years $100 mil] then he could have bought 3 more UFA years from a mere $860k more or basically the cost of league minimum player, and Leafs franchise player would have been locked up for 8 years not 5.

So now due to gross incompetence by Dubas the Leafs either risk losing their franchise player in a couple years for nothing if he leaves, and if he stays, his next contract is going to shatter all league norms coming off a 60 goal season and multiple Rocket trophies. So 20% C.H% CBA allowable per individual player at $83 mil cap ceiling = $16.6 max,

So lets say Matthews gives the Leafs a home town discount of conservative $15 mil per. So if you then overlap it with the McDavid deal its;

5 years @ $11.64 mil + next 3 years @$15 mil for a total of 8 years = $58,195,000 current deal + $45,000,000 mil for next 3 = $103,195,000 [ more than McDavid $100,000,000 mill]

So Leafs will be paying MORE for Matthews than McDavid over the same time period of 8 years, and what makes this GM incompetence even worse is if then re-signed Matthews new AAV goes up to $15 mil AAV,

$15 mil new AAV - $11.64 mil old AAV = +$3.36 mil more cap space extra (the additional 3 years) than had he got them for only $860k more had he given him $12.5 mil for 8.

Would you rather have McDavid for $12.5 mil AAV or Matthews for $15-16 mil per AAV for those same extra 3 years?

PS. Its the same CAP HELL situation with Marner who should have been signed the Draisaitl deal of 8 X $8.5 mil, instead of his $1

If AM wants the max 20%...I am not so sure I want him back TBH. What kind of team are you going to be able to field if he asks for that much? Marner is going to want $14M and now you are at $30M just for those 2 guys. I would start informal talks now and if it looks like he is going to want that kind of money...I would look at trading him. As much as it would hurt to do that in the short term, it would be the best thing for us cap wise.

The part that kills me the most is that we are beholden to these guys who aren't really big difference makers when the chips are down. Last Night Drai scored to tie it up with about 3min to go. When does that ever happen for us except for the game 5 go ahead goal by AM? Seriously, we never get that kind of timely goal from these guys and I am not sure if it will ever be the case for whatever reason.

 

[Mess]

If AM wants the max 20%...I am not so sure I want him back TBH. What kind of team are you going to be able to field if he asks for that much? Marner is going to want $14M and now you are at $30M just for those 2 guys. I would start informal talks now and if it looks like he is going to want that kind of money...I would look at trading him. As much as it would hurt to do that in the short term, it would be the best thing for us cap wise.

The part that kills me the most is that we are beholden to these guys who aren't really big difference makers when the chips are down. Last Night Drai scored to tie it up with about 3min to go. When does that ever happen for us except for the game 5 go ahead goal by AM? Seriously, we never get that kind of timely goal from these guys and I am not sure if it will ever be the case for whatever reason.

The part the kills me is even if they fired Dubas today, the damage he inflicted in his contracts is already done, and even if you hire the world's greatest GM, he inherits this mess with either;

1) Losing top players to UFA for nothing.
2) Force to deal top players away in their final years to recover your losses, and salvage something in return.
3) Forced to overpay top players to keep them, and destroy the Leafs Salary Cap going forward again with new escalating AAVs.

Pick your poison !!!!

None of this even takes into account Leafs playoff record with these players, as you're not winning now with them at much lower AAV then it would cost to bring them back at much higher ones.

There better be a Stanley Cup coming in the next 2 years in Toronto, for a team under Dubas that has never won a single playoff round, yet paid his players like they won multiple Cups already, like Toews/Kane, Crosby/Malkin or Kopitar/Doughty did first to earn their contracts or this situation is going to get really ugly in options going forward.

 

[killer1980]

Here is the problem and its simply Math and making smart business decisions.

McDavid's deal 8 years @ $12.5 mil was the ceiling for all contracts as the best player in the game. (of which Edmonton purchased 4 UFA years in addition to 4 RFA)

Matthews deal should have been 8 years at $11.64 mil and not 5 years at that rate ( because 4 years where cost controllable RFA years and only 1 year was UFA).

Dubas claimed at time of signing that is all he could afford to for cap reasons, which suggest that each additional UFA year he would purchase was going to drive the AAV even higher, because he was getting played and was paying far too much for the 4 RFA years. In contrast Matthews RFA years at $11.64 mil was more than Tavares open market UFA years at $11 mil.

However the difference between McDavid @ $12.5 mil and Matthews at $11.64 mil is only $860k extra.

So even if Dubas gave Matthews the exact same McDavid deal [8 years $100 mil] then he could have bought 3 more UFA years from a mere $860k more or basically the cost of league minimum player, and Leafs franchise player would have been locked up for 8 years not 5.

So now due to gross incompetence by Dubas the Leafs either risk losing their franchise player in a couple years for nothing if he leaves, and if he stays, his next contract is going to shatter all league norms coming off a 60 goal season and multiple Rocket trophies. So 20% C.H% CBA allowable per individual player at $83 mil cap ceiling = $16.6 max.

So lets say Matthews gives the Leafs a home town discount of conservative $15 mil per. Then if you then overlap it with the McDavid deal its;

5 years @ $11.64 mil + next 3 years @$15 mil for a total of 8 years = $58,195,000 current deal + $45,000,000 mil for next 3 = $103,195,000 mil [ more than McDavid $100,000,000 mill]

So Leafs will be paying MORE for Matthews than McDavid over the same time period of 8 years, and what makes this GM incompetence even worse is if then re-signed Matthews new AAV goes up to $15 mil AAV,

$15 mil new AAV - $11.64 mil old AAV = +$3.36 mil more cap space extra (the additional 3 years) than had he got them for only $860k more had he given him $12.5 mil for 8.

Would you rather have McDavid for $12.5 mil AAV or Matthews for $15-16 mil per AAV for those same extra 3 years?

PS. Its the same CAP HELL situation with Marner who should have been signed to the Draisaitl deal of 8 X $8.5 mil, instead of his $10.93 mil X 6 deal because of what his next contract will be.

If Leaf fans think Matthews + Marner + Tavares of 3 players making $33 mil is bad, wait to you see Matthew and Marner's next deals combined which are now likely to = ~ $30 AAV cap space or more perhaps all due to a greenhorn GM botching of all these contracts. Leafs are going to have to let Tavares walk just to use his $11 mil divided between re-signing Auston and Mitch top their new BIG raises.

There is no way that Dubas is capable of going through this kind of thought process which is what he should've done. This is the proper analysis and view to the future. I really think that Dubas biggest concern about AM & MM is, "Hey guys, where do you want to go for dinner?"

 

[29Potvin]

Cant wait for free agent frenzy 2025

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

There is no way that Dubas is capable of going through this kind of thought process which is what he should of done. This is the proper analysis and view to the future. I really think that Dubas biggest concern about AM & MM is, "Hey guys, where do you want to go for dinner?"

I think one of Duby's biggest flaws is the fact that he thinks being "confrontational" is stupid and old school. He thought he could be their buddy and give them what they wanted in exchange for winning. They all (including the star players) thought that it was their time to win. Not noting the SJ and Ottawa along with Vancouver teams that never did. They just assumed they were the next Blackhawks or Penguins because...well...just because that's how it should have been.

The only playoff team that worked hard from game 1 to 6 was the first one to play Washington. That team never quit and played their guts out. Every single team afterwards was less competitive in almost every respect.

They assumed that they were next in line and it was their turn at the cup. Just like Hillary assumed she would be President because it was "Her Time".

 

[rocketman588]

The part the kills me is even if they fired Dubas today, the damage he inflicted in his contracts is already done, and even if you hire the world's greatest GM, he inherits this mess with either;

1) Losing top players to UFA for nothing.
2) Force to deal top players away in their final years to recover your losses, and salvage something in return.
3) Forced to overpay top players to keep them, and destroy the Leafs Salary Cap going forward again with new escalating AAVs.

Pick your poison !!!!

None of this even takes into account Leafs playoff record with these players, as you're not winning now with them at much lower AAV then it would cost to bring them back at much higher ones.

There better be a Stanley Cup coming in the next 2 years in Toronto, for a team under Dubas that has never won a single playoff round, yet paid his players like they won multiple Cups already, like Toews/Kane, Crosby/Malkin or Kopitar/Doughty did first to earn their contracts or this situation is going to get really ugly in options going forward.

The thing that the people who "don't want to blow up the core" because they gave a good effort against Tampa don't realize is that win or lose we're probably trading willy after next year anyways.

We're not going to afford his, Mitches and Austons raises.

The worst part of the 5 years is if the cap rose like Dubas and all of us projected then the last year's of an 8 year deal are at an extreme value while the 5 year causes an insane number to get paid to AM after year 5.

If the cap went up to 100 mil for example the only thing we really did was line our RFAs to be paid better then everyone else by a lot.

Even in his philosophy of why he paid 4 forwards that much money the term of the deals makes 0 sense

 

[Dekes For Days]

McDavid's deal 8 years @ $12.5 mil was the ceiling for all contracts

There is no such thing as a "contract ceiling", and if there were, it would be based on his negotiated cap hit percentage (17.67%), not his post-discount raw AAV under a different cap.

Matthews' contract, at his term, is consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts.

Also, not only is your explanation of their current contracts wrong, your predictions for their next contracts are way off as well.

 

[Mess]

The facts don't lie..

Here the 15 highest C.H.% (cap hit %) contracts in the NHL.. Notice the 2 contracts that stand out for both being RFA status at time of signing, and being shorter than 7-8 years like all the rest. Matthews and Marner contracts sent shock waves through the NHL and rightfully so because Leafs had a GM that didn't understand what he was doing.

In order to get a Cap hit % above 13% you had to either sign up for 8 years in RFA or 7-8 years as UFA. Except for Matthews and Marner they got to protect their UFA years still get the same CH% as others and now get to double dip and get back in line for their next even bigger CH% contracts. At those cap hits AM and MM contracts had to be for 8 years to fit into the rest of the NHL structure, because its the UFA eliglble years that drive up the AAV cost averaged over the full term.

In order for other RFA's to get that high a CH% they had to give up 4 X RFA years and also 4 X UFA eligible years to their teams.

Top 15 current highest CH% ranked in order ... The ones with the shortest length standout, on their own but have been highlighted in Bold.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]PLAYER[/TD]
[TD]AGE[/TD]
[TD]POS[/TD]
[TD]SIGNING DATE[/TD]
[TD]SIGNING AGE[/TD]
[TD]CLAUSE[/TD]
[TD]LENGTH[/TD]
[TD]SIGNING[/TD]
[TD]EXPIRY[/TD]
[TD]CAP HIT[/TD]
[TD]CAP HIT %[/TD]
[TD]AAV[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1. Connor McDavid[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 5, 2017[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]RFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$12,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

16.70%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$12,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2. Patrick Kane[/TD]

[TD]

33​

[/TD]

[TD]RW[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 9, 2014[/TD]

[TD]

26​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

15.20%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3. Jonathan Toews[/TD]

[TD]

34​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 9, 2014[/TD]

[TD]

26​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

15.20%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4. Auston Matthews[/TD]

[TD]

24​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Feb. 5, 2019[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]RFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$11,640,250​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.60%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$11,640,250​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5. Sidney Crosby[/TD]

[TD]

34​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 1, 2012[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$8,700,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.50%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$8,700,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6. Erik Karlsson[/TD]

[TD]

32​

[/TD]

[TD]RD[/TD]
[TD]Jun. 17, 2019[/TD]

[TD]

29​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$11,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.50%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$11,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7. Artemi Panarin[/TD]

[TD]

30​

[/TD]

[TD]LW[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 1, 2019[/TD]

[TD]

27​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$11,642,857​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.30%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$11,642,857​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8. Anze Kopitar[/TD]

[TD]

34​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Jan. 16, 2016[/TD]

[TD]

28​

[/TD]

[TD]M-NTC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,000,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.00%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,000,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9. Carey Price[/TD]

[TD]

34​

[/TD]

[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 2, 2017[/TD]

[TD]

29​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.00%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10. John Tavares[/TD]

[TD]

31​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 1, 2018[/TD]

[TD]

27​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$11,000,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.80%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$11,000,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11. Drew Doughty[/TD]

[TD]

32​

[/TD]

[TD]RD[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 1, 2018[/TD]

[TD]

29​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$11,000,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.80%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$11,000,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12. Mitchell Marner[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]RW[/TD]
[TD]Sep. 13, 2019[/TD]

[TD]

22​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]RFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,903,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.40%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,903,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13. Jack Eichel[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Oct. 3, 2017[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]RFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,000,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.30%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,000,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14. Shea Weber[/TD]

[TD]

36​

[/TD]

[TD]RD[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 24, 2012[/TD]

[TD]

26​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]

14​

[/TD]

[TD]RFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$7,857,143​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.10%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$7,857,143​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15. Jamie Benn[/TD]

[TD]

32​

[/TD]

[TD]LW, C[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 15, 2016[/TD]

[TD]

27​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$9,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.00%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$9,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Dekes For Days]

In order to get a Cap hit % above 13% you had to either sign up for 8 years in RFA or 7-8 years as UFA.

This is incorrect. There have been 10 post-ELC contracts that got above 13%. 5 were 5 year terms. Only 2 were 8 year terms.

 

[Americanadian]

This is incorrect. There have been 10 post-ELC contracts that got above 13%. 5 were 5 year terms. Only 2 were 8 year terms.

1. Crosby
2. Malkin

Who am I missing? Kane/Toews/Stamkos were all below 12%.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Who am I missing?

Crosby, Malkin, Kovalchuk, Matthews, and Nash. McDavid and Eichel were the only 8 year 13%+ post-ELC contracts in the entire cap era.

 

[Mess]

This is incorrect. There have been 10 post-ELC contracts that got above 13%. 5 were 5 year terms. Only 2 were 8 year terms.

Lets see if you understand how CH% works.

Does a short-term contract with a high CH% benefit the player or the team?

What is the difference in CH% for Matthews of 5 years @ $11.64 mil AAV vs 8 years @ $11.64 mil AAV if both contracts were signed at the same time?

Once you realize cap hit % is the same regardless of term, then please explain why Dubas didn't get the full 8 years at the same rate, because if he was willing to pay that AAV for the first 4 X RFA cost controllabe years then why not for the more expensive final 4 UFA eligible years for AM and MM?

Unless you think Matthews and Marner's next contracts are going down when they re-sign, then it can only get worse as far as the Leafs salary cap situation, because Dubas failed to get the 8 years and now has to pay a premium above their last contracts over the course of those lost years in this current deal. Not only that but he has to perhaps let the market as UFAs dictate the price in laws of supply and demand because now Leafs players are UFA and can listen to offers.

 

[rocketman588]

1. Crosby
2. Malkin

Who am I missing? Kane/Toews/Stamkos were

This is a good trivia question lol

 

[Americanadian]

Crosby, Malkin, Kovalchuk, Matthews, and Nash. McDavid and Eichel were the only 8 year 13%+ post-ELC contracts in the entire cap era.

So you're including the person in question, and the first 2 instances post-lockout which were signed in the off-season before the first salary cap season even started.

Stamkos should have been the ceiling based on ELC production.

Lets see if you understand how CH% works.

Does a short-term contract with a high CH% benefit the player or the team?

What is the difference in CH% for Matthews of 5 years @ $11.64 mil AAV vs 8 years @ $11.64 mil AAV if both contracts were signed at the same time?

Once you realize cap hit % is the same regardless of term, then please explain why Dubas didn't get the full 8 years at the same rate, because if he was willing to pay that AAV for the first 4 X RFA cost controllabe years then why not for the more expensive final 4 UFA eligible years for AM and MM?

Unless you think Matthews and Marner's next contracts are going down when they re-sign, then it can only get worse as far as the Leafs salary cap situation, because Dubas failed to get the 8 years and now has to pay a premium above their last contracts over the course of those lost years in this current deal. Not only that but he has to perhaps let the market as UFAs dictate the price in laws of supply and demand because now Leafs players are UFA and can listen to offers.

I think Marner vs Point is the perfect way to look at it. Very similar platform years. One signed a bridge and one signed a 6 year contract. The consensus at the time was that Point would be the higher paid player in year 4 and that never came close. Brayden point will probably never make close to Marner.

 

[rocketman588]

Ovie also signed for 13 off the ELC not 8 years but obviously that's the max length these days

 

[Dekes For Days]

Lets see if you understand how CH% works.

I'm not the one where that's in doubt.

Does a short-term contract with a high CH% benefit the player or the team?

For post-ELC contracts, a longer term increases the cap hit percentage. For UFA contracts, a longer term decreases cap hit percentage.

Once you realize cap hit % is the same regardless of term, then please explain why Dubas didn't get the full 8 years at the same rate

Cap hit percentage is not the same regardless of term. Dubas did 5 years - the most common term for players of his caliber - in order to bring down the cap hit percentage from what it would be at 8 years, so that he could ensure he could fit everybody under the cap and still build around them. This has the additional benefit of ensuring that the next contract won't stretch into significant decline years.

Unless you think Matthews and Marner's next contracts are going down when they re-sign, then it can only get worse as far as the Leafs salary cap situation

They're likely to get a higher cap hit percentage, but not nearly as drastically higher as you suggested. And our salary cap situation (which isn't currently bad) will likely improve through their UFA contracts, because unlike during this extremely abnormal period of time where the cap stagnated due to a global pandemic, the cap will be rising (probably quite significantly) throughout their UFA contracts.

 

[francis246]

The thing that the people who "don't want to blow up the core" because they gave a good effort against Tampa don't realize is that win or lose we're probably trading willy after next year anyways.

We're not going to afford his, Mitches and Austons raises.

The worst part of the 5 years is if the cap rose like Dubas and all of us projected then the last year's of an 8 year deal are at an extreme value while the 5 year causes an insane number to get paid to AM after year 5.

If the cap went up to 100 mil for example the only thing we really did was line our RFAs to be paid better then everyone else by a lot.

Even in his philosophy of why he paid 4 forwards that much money the term of the deals makes 0 sense

I doubt Tavares' is getting a raise after this next contract. I would expect Tavares will take a team friendly deal. I think what will happen is the NHL is going to be forced to raise the cap higher than they want to. Why? because at some point the contracts around the league will be so out of control there will be a huge wage gap. Toronto isn't the only team who is going through this and they aren't even the first team who is going to suffer because of the stupid design of the cap. I'm really interested to see how Calgary handles their contracts. They are screwed, they are going to be pay two wingers probably over 10 million. With no legit #1 center.

 

[Mess]

I think Marner vs Point is the perfect way to look at it. Very similar platform years. One signed a bridge and one signed a 6 year contract. The consensus at the time was that Point would be the higher paid player in year 4 and that never came close. Brayden point will probably never make close to Marner.

Perfect example to demonstrate good contract vs real bad contract.

2017-18 Player stats (to determine post ELC contract)
===================================================
Marner - Toronto Maple Leafs .. NHL ..... 82 games 26 goals 68 assists 94 points
Point -- Tampa Bay Lightning .. NHL ....... 79 games 41 goals 51 assists 92 points

Because Brayden Point took a 3 year bridge deal @ $6,750,000 AAV & 8.28 CH%, because he was a team player and Tampa Bay won 2 Stanley Cups because in part to his contract, and his contribution of 14 goals in 2020 and 2021 leading the playoffs in goals both years.

Now after hoisting 2 and maybe 3 Cups his new 8 year deal kicks in 2023 at $9,500,000 mil AAV and 11.66 CH%.

Even winning Championships and leading the playoffs in goals he couldn't get the current Marner deal.

Point playoff stats.
2019-20 - PLAYOFFS .... 23 games 14 goals 19 assists 33 points
2020-21 - PLAYOFFS ... 23 games 14 goals 9 assists 23 points

Marner who signed his contract first got 6 years $10.93 mil AAV @ 13.38 C.H.%

Crafty experienced Toronto player agents got his client Salary Cap busting deal taking full advantage of a greenhorn GM in Toronto. If Matthews would have taken a 3 year $9-9.5 mil deal as was rumoured at time, and Marner got a similar deal to Point and both Leafs players now RFAs and not UFAs things would be so much better with all that extra salary cap to spend on building a Cup winning team.

Sadly because Leafs rookie GM spent the Leafs into Cap Hell, the team is now paying for that with early round #1 exists, and when these deals are up and the Cap only goes up 2-3 mil but Leafs have to re-sign them its only going to get worse cap wise when their AAV go even higher.

 

[LeafEgo]

The facts don't lie..

Here the 15 highest C.H.% (cap hit %) contracts in the NHL.. Notice the 2 contracts that stand out for both being RFA status at time of signing, and being shorter than 7-8 years like all the rest. Matthews and Marner contracts sent shock waves through the NHL and rightfully so because Leafs had a GM that didn't understand what he was doing.

In order to get a Cap hit % above 13% you had to either sign up for 8 years in RFA or 7-8 years as UFA. Except for Matthews and Marner they got to protect their UFA years still get the same CH% as others and now get to double dip and get back in line for their next even bigger CH% contracts. At those cap hits AM and MM contracts had to be for 8 years to fit into the rest of the NHL structure, because its the UFA eliglble years that drive up the AAV cost averaged over the full term.

In order for other RFA's to get that high a CH% they had to give up 4 X RFA years and also 4 X UFA eligible years to their teams.

Top 15 current highest CH% ranked in order ... The ones with the shortest length standout, on their own but have been highlighted in Bold.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]PLAYER[/TD]
[TD]AGE[/TD]
[TD]POS[/TD]
[TD]SIGNING DATE[/TD]
[TD]SIGNING AGE[/TD]
[TD]CLAUSE[/TD]
[TD]LENGTH[/TD]
[TD]SIGNING[/TD]
[TD]EXPIRY[/TD]
[TD]CAP HIT[/TD]
[TD]CAP HIT %[/TD]
[TD]AAV[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1. Connor McDavid[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 5, 2017[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]RFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$12,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

16.70%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$12,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2. Patrick Kane[/TD]

[TD]

33​

[/TD]

[TD]RW[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 9, 2014[/TD]

[TD]

26​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

15.20%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3. Jonathan Toews[/TD]

[TD]

34​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 9, 2014[/TD]

[TD]

26​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

15.20%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4. Auston Matthews[/TD]

[TD]

24​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Feb. 5, 2019[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]RFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$11,640,250​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.60%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$11,640,250​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5. Sidney Crosby[/TD]

[TD]

34​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 1, 2012[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$8,700,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.50%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$8,700,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6. Erik Karlsson[/TD]

[TD]

32​

[/TD]

[TD]RD[/TD]
[TD]Jun. 17, 2019[/TD]

[TD]

29​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$11,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.50%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$11,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7. Artemi Panarin[/TD]

[TD]

30​

[/TD]

[TD]LW[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 1, 2019[/TD]

[TD]

27​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$11,642,857​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.30%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$11,642,857​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8. Anze Kopitar[/TD]

[TD]

34​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Jan. 16, 2016[/TD]

[TD]

28​

[/TD]

[TD]M-NTC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,000,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.00%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,000,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9. Carey Price[/TD]

[TD]

34​

[/TD]

[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 2, 2017[/TD]

[TD]

29​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.00%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10. John Tavares[/TD]

[TD]

31​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 1, 2018[/TD]

[TD]

27​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$11,000,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.80%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$11,000,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11. Drew Doughty[/TD]

[TD]

32​

[/TD]

[TD]RD[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 1, 2018[/TD]

[TD]

29​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$11,000,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.80%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$11,000,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12. Mitchell Marner[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]RW[/TD]
[TD]Sep. 13, 2019[/TD]

[TD]

22​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]RFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,903,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.40%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,903,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13. Jack Eichel[/TD]

[TD]

25​

[/TD]

[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Oct. 3, 2017[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]RFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$10,000,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.30%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$10,000,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14. Shea Weber[/TD]

[TD]

36​

[/TD]

[TD]RD[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 24, 2012[/TD]

[TD]

26​

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]

14​

[/TD]

[TD]RFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$7,857,143​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.10%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$7,857,143​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15. Jamie Benn[/TD]

[TD]

32​

[/TD]

[TD]LW, C[/TD]
[TD]Jul. 15, 2016[/TD]

[TD]

27​

[/TD]

[TD]NMC[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]

[TD]

$9,500,000​

[/TD]

[TD]

13.00%​

[/TD]

[TD]

$9,500,000​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Per the chart,

If we use 'half way between Eichel and McDavid CH%' as the comparable for Matthews, then AM's 8 year price point would be 11.9M. Deducting the somewhat common 500k per each year removed that would put him at 10.4M for five years - or an overpay of 1.2M

If we use 'less than Eichel CH%' as the comparable for Marner, then MM's 8 year price point would be <10.8M. Deducting the 500k per each year removed would put him at <9.8M for six years - or an overpay of 1.1M+

 

[hamzarocks]

It's amazing that we're still debating the big 3 + Tavares contracts 4 years after they were signed

These guys haven't been able to silent the doubters even after 3-4 years.

Same arguments from both sides and the players are still earning top dollar for the same playoff results

 

[fahad203]

Last year Dubas had an opportunity to get Gallant. He was on the market
Look what he has done with Rangers. Rangers had talent but they lacked identity and structure
He changed all that

This year the crop is even bigger with Trotz and Cassady

I know sports cliches like sticking to the game plan. Well if the game plan is flawed, you are actually doing more harm then good.

Do it Dubas, fire your boy. Get a coach that actually won or been to the dance. If you could land a grade A free agent in the market and you had cap money, you would go for it. You would make it happen. This is no different

 

[deprw]

Last year Dubas had an opportunity to get Gallant. He was on the market
Look what he has done with Rangers. Rangers had talent but they lacked identity and structure
He changed all that

This year the crop is even bigger with Trotz and Cassady

I know sports cliches like sticking to the game plan. Well if the game plan is flawed, you are actually doing more harm then good.

Do it Dubas, fire your boy. Get a coach that actually won or been to the dance. If you could land a grade A free agent in the market and you had cap money, you would go for it. You would make it happen. This is no different

Rangers have been shit 5v5 against Tampa, so they don't have that good structure you claim they have. Special teams and Vasilevski being worst goalie in the first two games made the difference. Not the structure by Gallant. We controlled 5v5 against Tampa, but Rangers are in trouble even strenght.