Despite major challanges, Kyle Dubas has passed the tests

[Antropovsky]

When matthews signed his contract, he had a career high of 73 points. His PO #'s were 7 points in 13 games.

Marner had a career high of 94 points and his Po #'s were 17 points in 20 games.

Marner also signed for 6 years vs only 5 for matthews.

Do you think marner would've gotten 10.9 x 6 if matthews had signed for 11x8 (what he should have gotten)?

Eichel took 10 x 8. Mcdavid took 12.5 x 8. Matthews was better than eichel but the gap between him and mcdavid was larger.

Dubas caved to Nylander and pro rated his contract so that Nylander still got his 7 mil even though he sat out for ~2 months on the team. That set the ball rolling which led to both matthews and marner becoming overpaid. Dubas has to be one of the worst rfa negotiators in the league.

I agree that both Nylander and Marner were overpaid. Matthews was not.... he gets whatever he wants or he gets several offersheets.

Dubas needed to play hardball on one or both of Marner and Nylander.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I agree that both Nylander and Marner were overpaid. Matthews was not.... he gets whatever he wants or he gets several offersheets.

Dubas needed to play hardball on one or both of Marner and Nylander.

With Marner he should have held firm at 9.5, with Nylander he did well, held out to the end and got him on a good contract. As for Matthews the term was too short, it’s terrifying to think about him potentially walking for nothing in two years. Edmonton and Buffalo managed to get their superstars signed for 8 years.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

As an aside, I find it a bit startling how many are okay with the Matthews contract. I guess I’ll just sit in the weeds, hope we win next year, because the clock is ticking there and I suspect it might become clearer then. I stand firm that Dubas was rolled by all three RFA’s and I suspect agents might see my point.

If AM wanted the top dollar so badly if he hit RFA knowing that it would cripple us somewhat for 5yrs...then let him go. I want someone who wants to win above everything else. Tell me what you can buy with 13M that you can't with 10m. Our RFA's had the song and dance about not having made any real money yet and they deserved the contracts without waiting to UFA. Dubas paid them as UFA's pretty much and here we are.

The worst part about the MM and AM contracts are the NMC in the last year. Dubas gave them everything...the term they wanted...the cash they wanted and did not even get a compromise from them on NMC. It's just incredible to see people defending the deals just because some other RFA who signed a bridge deal is about to get paid NOW and they equate it as the same thing. We never got 3yrs of cheaper prices...we paid full pop and more while other teams got at least some years at a discount. The worst part is...they will pine for the largest deals on their UFA tour because they will say this is their chance to cash in one last time. It never ends with greedy selfish players/agents ....The loyalty Dubas showed will never be paid back...the world is not Kumbaya no matter what Dubas believes.

 

[Antropovsky]

With Marner he should have held firm at 9.5, with Nylander he did well, held out to the end and got him on a good contract. As for Matthews the term was too short, it’s terrifying to think about him potentially walking for nothing in two years. Edmonton and Buffalo managed to get their superstars signed for 8 years.

Still... that was up to those players. If those players waited, teams would've backed the trucks up. This wasn't in the power of the gm... unfortunately.

 

[Nylanderthal]

How did he give in to Nylander? It's common knowledge that Nylander's camp called in the last half hour to settle at 6.9. His ask was 8.5

Leafs used pasta as a comparable and he got the pasta contract with the added cap inflation of being signed a year later with an extra year of production to base off of.
There’s also nothing wrong with Matthews’ deal either as it’s right in line with cap% and term for other Elite 1C top picks since the cap came in. Look at kopitar Toews Crosby malkin stamkos Tavares Duchene for cap% and term on their second deals and look where Auston ranks among those and tell me it’s bad.
Marner got overpaid, but really by how much? Imo if he signed 6x10m in July and none of this hold out/offer sheet bs happens no one bats an eye, but daddy Paul wanted his day in the sun and his pound of flesh for his boy being mistreated by leather face and being cheated out of performance bonus’ other top 5 picks generally get by sweet Lou

If AM wanted the top dollar so badly if he hit RFA knowing that it would cripple us somewhat for 5yrs...then let him go. I want someone who wants to win above everything else. Tell me what you can buy with 13M that you can't with 10m. Our RFA's had the song and dance about not having made any real money yet and they deserved the contracts without waiting to UFA. Dubas paid them as UFA's pretty much and here we are.

The worst part about the MM and AM contracts are the NMC in the last year. Dubas gave them everything...the term they wanted...the cash they wanted and did not even get a compromise from them on NMC. It's just incredible to see people defending the deals just because some other RFA who signed a bridge deal is about to get paid NOW and they equate it as the same thing. We never got 3yrs of cheaper prices...we paid full pop and more while other teams got at least some years at a discount. The worst part is...they will pine for the largest deals on their UFA tour because they will say this is their chance to cash in one last time. It never ends with greedy selfish players/agents ....The loyalty Dubas showed will never be paid back...the world is not Kumbaya no matter what Dubas believes.

How would you feel right now staring down the barrel of a $10m QO for Matt Tkachuck knowing he’s walking in a year if you don’t go 10-11x8?
You think these player friendly deals are exclusive to TO? Every team has been forced to pay up more to the younger guys, as they should.

 

[Nylanderthal]

With Marner he should have held firm at 9.5, with Nylander he did well, held out to the end and got him on a good contract. As for Matthews the term was too short, it’s terrifying to think about him potentially walking for nothing in two years. Edmonton and Buffalo managed to get their superstars signed for 8 years.

Why would Matthews walk? If he wants money and fame this is the most popular and richest team. If he wants legacy it’s the second most storied franchise in the league and he’s already halfway home to franchise records.
They can offer the most term so thus the most money, and can front load and signing bonus the crap outta it.
He won’t leave unless the team around him falls apart.
Mcdavid gave money back, Chiapet tried to pay him more… he’s a special kid what can you say? Eichel had a history of neck/back issues even at a young age and $80m in the bank guaranteed is a hard thing to pass up when you have no clue if you can roll outta bed in the am

 

[Antropovsky]

Why would Matthews walk? If he wants money and fame this is the most popular and richest team. If he wants legacy it’s the second most storied franchise in the league and he’s already halfway home to franchise records.
They can offer the most term so thus the most money, and can front load and signing bonus the crap outta it.
He won’t leave unless the team around him falls apart.
Mcdavid gave money back, Chiapet tried to pay him more… he’s a special kid what can you say? Eichel had a history of neck/back issues even at a young age and $80m in the bank guaranteed is a hard thing to pass up when you have no clue if you can roll outta bed in the am

L.A or NY would be probably more preferable to an American who wants to be in the fashion scene. No?

 

[Bomber0104]

L.A or NY would be probably more preferable to an American who wants to be in the fashion scene. No?

LA will looking for a new top line center the year Matthews hits free-agency, as it turns out.

Something to monitor.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

How would you feel right now staring down the barrel of a $10m QO for Matt Tkachuck knowing he’s walking in a year if you don’t go 10-11x8?
You think these player friendly deals are exclusive to TO? Every team has been forced to pay up more to the younger guys, as they should.

If it came to Tkachuk who just had a 100 point season...I would feel pretty good that we know we have an elite player worth that kind of money. Plus...we got him for 7.5M for 3 yrs to along with this great revelation. Paying a bit more for younger guys than previous teams did, I don't have a problem with. Giving them practically UFA money when they are still RFA's I have a problem with. You should too because the last 3yrs we could have used some extra cap.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Eichel took 10 x 8. Mcdavid took 12.5 x 8. Matthews was better than eichel but the gap between him and mcdavid was larger.

Eichel took 13.33%, and McDavid negotiated 17.67% and then took 16.67%. Matthews took 14.64%, even though he was WAY WAY WAY closer to McDavid than Eichel, to account for the term discrepancy. Nothing wrong with his contract.

 

[Shooter2x]

L.A or NY would be probably more preferable to an American who wants to be in the fashion scene. No?

Matthews is exactly where he needs to be to have it all (legacy + spotlight). He's sacrificing massive legacy ditching Toronto just to be around celebrities. This is a guy who went to Europe as a teen just to encounter harder competition. Pretty sure he values legacy over showing off his latest Balenciaga pyjama outfit (god those things are so ugly )

 

[Gabriel426]

Can we talk about how Dubas can sign Drai or McD or both when their deals expired bc JT will be off the book.

 

[notbias]

When matthews signed his contract, he had a career high of 73 points. His PO #'s were 7 points in 13 games.

Marner had a career high of 94 points and his Po #'s were 17 points in 20 games.

Marner also signed for 6 years vs only 5 for matthews.

Do you think marner would've gotten 10.9 x 6 if matthews had signed for 11x8 (what he should have gotten)?

Eichel took 10 x 8. Mcdavid took 12.5 x 8. Matthews was better than eichel but the gap between him and mcdavid was larger.

Dubas caved to Nylander and pro rated his contract so that Nylander still got his 7 mil even though he sat out for ~2 months on the team. That set the ball rolling which led to both matthews and marner becoming overpaid. Dubas has to be one of the worst rfa negotiators in the league.

McDavid's contract would be $13,500,000 if he signed when Matthews did, and Eichel's would have been $10,800,000.

Maner is overpaid by a million, the rest are fine.

 

[Racer88]

The problem is everyone wants to do analysis of each of the big 3’s contracts in isolation.
Individually you could make a case that all 3 of them are not as bad as we might think. The real problem is when you have 3 of them on the same team and none of those contracts are a top goalie or a stud Dman. They are essentially the same player…….3 forwards.

 

[hotpaws]

McDavid's contract would be $13,500,000 if he signed when Matthews did, and Eichel's would have been $10,800,000.

Maner is overpaid by a million, the rest are fine.

McD's contract would have been 13.25 , Eichel's 10,6m but they both signed for 8ytrs , on a 5yr term Mathews cap hit should have been under 10m per and Marner should have been in the low 9's .

 

[notbias]

McD's contract would have been 13.25 , Eichel's 10,6m but they both signed for 8ytrs , on a 5yr term Mathews cap hit should have been under 10m per and Marner should have been in the low 9's .

Not based on comparables

 

[hotpaws]

Not based on comparables

I did base them on his comparables at that time as well as taking into account term which you seem to be ignoring.

 

[ToneDog]

The problem is everyone wants to do analysis of each of the big 3’s contracts in isolation.
Individually you could make a case that all 3 of them are not as bad as we might think. The real problem is when you have 3 of them on the same team and none of those contracts are a top goalie or a stud Dman. They are essentially the same player…….3 forwards.

Add that those 3 have failed to get it done for 4 years straight. Once McDavid is eliminated, Panarin will be the only player left in the playoffs making 8 digits.

 

[notbias]

I did base them on his comparables at that time as well as taking into account term which you seem to be ignoring.

there are a lot more comparables than just those two.

Also, Eichel was well below PPG when signing and Matthews basically was PPG, so seems kind of weird that you think he lands between McDavid and Eichel when Matthews has outproduced Eichel everywhere, and was doing so in the NHL at a pretty high rate.

 

[Racer88]

Add that those 3 have failed to get it done for 4 years straight. Once McDavid is eliminated, Panarin will be the only player left in the playoffs making 8 digits.

Sad but true. In a cap world this kind of distribution does not work

 

[keonsbitterness]

Can we talk about how Dubas can sign Drai or McD or both when their deals expired bc JT will be off the book.

No.

 

[hotpaws]

there are a lot more comparables than just those two.

Also, Eichel was well below PPG when signing and Matthews basically was PPG, so seems kind of weird that you think he lands between McDavid and Eichel when Matthews has outproduced Eichel everywhere, and was doing so in the NHL at a pretty high rate.

Eichel had 57pts in 61g in his 2nd season on a much worse team so how is that well below a ppg ?

McD hit 100 pts in his 2nd season and won major awards before he signed his deal which was for 8yrs so i have no idea how you can keep ignoring term as well as production when you keep trying to compare deals .

and who are these other comparables since you'd have to ignore every one of them and go all the way back to Malkin who signed under a different CBA to find any contract which is remotely comparable to what AM signed for

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Eichel had 57pts in 61g in his 2nd season on a much worse team so how is that well below a ppg ?

McD hit 100 pts in his 2nd season and won major awards before he signed his deal which was for 8yrs so i have no idea how you can keep ignoring term as well as production when you keep trying to compare deals .

and who are these other comparables since you'd have ignore everyone of them and go all the way back to Malkik who signed under a different CBA to find any contract which is remotely comparable to what AM signed for

It's the old "When we sign a player to too short a contract it's because historically that is what players get" mantra that people keep trotting out in response to the 5 and 6yr deals he gave them. Never mind that McDavid and Eichel and the other top guys signed for 8yrs...nevermind that at all...we just did what Malkin and Crosby did12yrs ago and its fine....

The overpay I can handle...the term is what kills me to this day. How much more would it have cost to get 3yrs out of AM? another 1.5M/yr? So do it....why leave yourself open to drama next year?

 

[hotpaws]

It's the old "When we sign a player to too short a contract it's because historically that is what players get" mantra that people keep trotting out in response to the 5 and 6yr deals he gave them. Never mind that McDavid and Eichel and the other top guys signed for 8yrs...nevermind that at all...we just did what Malkin and Crosby did12yrs ago and its fine....

The overpay I can handle...the term is what kills me to this day. How much more would it have cost to get 3yrs out of AM? another 1.5M/yr? So do it....why leave yourself open to drama next year?

what AM signed for should have been for 8yrs and i doubt AM wanted to go 8yrs regardless of the how much more he could have reasonably gotten for 3 extra yrs

 

[Antropovsky]

I don't think he has done very good myself. It's tough looking back at the great depth that has left this team. Also it's tough seeing Makar playing on a 9 million dollar contract signed after Marners.

Matthews is the only one who we should've let dictate his contract. Leaves a bad taste on my mouth knowing he held us over a barrel and we are 3 years into Marners contract and he still only has 2 goals and 16 points in 19 postseason games and we have yet to get past round 1.

I still think in 3 seasons - he and Matthews should've by now had at least one dominant postseason series together. We are talking about two 21 million dollars playing on the same line. It's head shaking bad. If not him than surely dump Keefe. There is no excuse for three rounds of thus.