Despite major challanges, Kyle Dubas has passed the tests

[ShaneFalco]

Then why did the toxicity start 3 years ago? There have been people whining about it like Matthews already had one foot out the door back in February 2019. What has he said or done which suggests he will not re-sign? What suggests he will be different than the countless other stars who have signed 5 or 6 year deals only to re-sign?

At this point, the entire motivating factor is "I hate Dubas, Dubas is stupid and sucks at negotiating and they are going to leave because he didn't sign for 8 years" but I would fully bet that if it was Lou who signed the same deal, they would not say ****. This despite Lou pushing young stars to leave as soon as they hit UFA at an unprecedented rate as a GM.

No its maybe wanting to win somewhere

 

[WTFMAN99]

Then why did the toxicity start 3 years ago? There have been people whining about it like Matthews already had one foot out the door back in February 2019. What has he said or done which suggests he will not re-sign? What suggests he will be different than the countless other stars who have signed 5 or 6 year deals only to re-sign?

At this point, the entire motivating factor is "I hate Dubas, Dubas is stupid and sucks at negotiating and they are going to leave because he didn't sign for 8 years" but I would fully bet that if it was Lou who signed the same deal, they would not say ****. This despite Lou pushing young stars to leave as soon as they hit UFA at an unprecedented rate as a GM.

Tavares hit UFA, left
Stamkos tried UFA, stayed in Tampa
Pietrangelo hit UFA, left.
Landeskog hit UFA, stayed in Colorado

Is there anyone else I am missing? Seems rare.

The only reason I could see Matthews leaving is lack of success but haven't seen anyone outright choose not to re-sign here.

 

[thinkblue]

These same guys who took Dubas to the cleaners years ago are all going to get another chance at it. Buckle up and brace for impact.

Matthews will get a blank cheque, I don't expect much negotiating.

 

[Menzinger]

Except it starts after next season. Matthews and Marner have NMCs kicking in July 1, 2023. Marner has a NMC for two years so the Leafs have less leverage with him.

I expect both will re-sign, but stuff happens.

Both guys are likely signed to extensions. But players are also traded with NMCs or NTCs all the time. There's no problem to deal with yet regardless.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Matthews will get a blank cheque, I don't expect much negotiating.

Otherwise known as Dubas negotiations
Is it ok if we just go ahead and throw in a nmc?

 

[Stephen]

Yup you got that right, upfront signing bonuses are designed to level the playing field for markets with low/zero tax situation so that players can earn the same take home pay in the end.

But what you missed was that its suppose to lower or equal contracts across the markets.

Dubas hands out the highest AAV's to compensate for market and taxes, and then hands out also unprecedented front loaded contract 92-94% to again compensate for markets and taxes.,

Its an either or negotiating tool, not doubling down on both ends of the deal.

So if a player in a tax free zone gets $9 mil per then Leafs have to offer $11 mil so that after taxes the players are even on take home pay. However you can also give both players the same $9 mil AAV, but compensate the player in the higher tax bracket with his money upfront and sooner so that with proper investing he once again earns the same relative take home pay over the length of the contract.

Matthews, Tavares and Marner have 3 of the 7 highest AAV deals in the league and their contracts also include 92-94% front loaded deals which puts the Leafs at the highest end of both scales because player agents are playing a greenhorn GM in a big market. Or how do you choose to make excuses where Leafs upfront loaded deals are nearly double that of the next highest team also dealing with the same tax issues?


[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH]PLAYER[/TH]
[TH]TEAM[/TH]
[TH]AGE[/TH]
[TH]POS[/TH]
[TH]CLAUSE[/TH]
[TH]LENGTH[/TH]
[TH]EXPIRY[/TH]
[TH]CAP HIT[/TH]
[TH]CAP HIT %[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1. Connor McDavid[/TD]
[TD]EDM[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]NMC[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]$12,500,000[/TD]
[TD]16.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2. Artemi Panarin[/TD]
[TD]NYR[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]LW[/TD]
[TD]NMC[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]$11,642,857[/TD]
[TD]14.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3. Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]$11,640,250[/TD]
[TD]14.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4. Erik Karlsson[/TD]
[TD]SJS[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]RD[/TD]
[TD]NMC[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]$11,500,000[/TD]
[TD]14.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5. John Tavares[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]NMC[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]$11,000,000[/TD]
[TD]13.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6. Drew Doughty[/TD]
[TD]LAK[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]RD[/TD]
[TD]NMC[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]$11,000,000[/TD]
[TD]13.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7. Mitchell Marner[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]RW[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]UFA[/TD]
[TD]$10,903,000[/TD]
[TD]13.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

&

View attachment 553479

You know what you do with a GM that hands out he biggest contracts for the shortest terms, and also the highest frontloaded deals and delivers Zero playoff results? .. You fire him !!!!

Dubas can't assemble a playoff winning team no matter how foolishly he spends money trying to achieve it. That there is your bottom line !!!

It's pretty gruesome, but I guess Toronto just tends to prefer to pay contracts out via signing bonus than as standard salary, so it's not like Toronto is outspending other teams many times over.

I would be interested to see what the total payout on Robidas Island and buyouts and salary retention is over the course of the Shanaplan though.

Also, how many NHL teams are owned by owners who are also in the NBA and MLS?

 

[deprw]

Both guys are likely signed to extensions. But players are also traded with NMCs or NTCs all the time. There's no problem to deal with yet regardless.

You treat people right and they don't usually want to screw you, if you're already working in environment that is full of professionals. There are always bad apples though.

If we can't sign a deal I think we can figure something out with them, if we don't then it's maybe time to put magnifying glass on Shanahan and Dubas.

Worrying it? Fool's game. If we look other examples, usually your stars sign with you, if you don't screw them or there is some kind of crunch with cap.

Matthews can get that 8th year only from us or we trade that opportunity to other team, but I think he'll stick here.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Then why did the toxicity start 3 years ago? There have been people whining about it like Matthews already had one foot out the door back in February 2019. What has he said or done which suggests he will not re-sign? What suggests he will be different than the countless other stars who have signed 5 or 6 year deals only to re-sign?

At this point, the entire motivating factor is "I hate Dubas, Dubas is stupid and sucks at negotiating and they are going to leave because he didn't sign for 8 years" but I would fully bet that if it was Lou who signed the same deal, they would not say ****. This despite Lou pushing young stars to leave as soon as they hit UFA at an unprecedented rate as a GM.

The toxicity comes almost entirely from playoff results. It's harder to be optimistic when you see do-or-die losses again and again.

My focus is more on who the GM will be after 22-23. I believe it won't be Dubas if there's another 1st round exit.

 

[WTFMAN99]

You treat people right and they don't usually want to screw you, if you're already working in environment that is full of professionals. There are always bad apples though.

If we can't sign a deal I think we can figure something out with them, if we don't then it's maybe time to put magnifying glass on Shanahan and Dubas.

Worrying it? Fool's game. If we look other examples, usually your stars sign with you, if you don't screw them or there is some kind of crunch with cap.

Matthews can get that 8th year only from us or we trade that opportunity to other team, but I think he'll stick here.

90% chance he and Marner are Leafs.

JT after takes a significant discount if he wants to stay...don't see a scenario where 88 signs a new deal here, already top heavy now.

 

[deprw]

90% chance he and Marner are Leafs.

JT after takes a significant discount if he wants to stay...don't see a scenario where 88 signs a new deal here, already top heavy now.

I have basicly same assumption. I think the problem with Nylander is that he is capable of playing first violin somewhere and here he is spare one. That will always hold him back a bit.

 

[ToneDog]

Matthews will get a blank cheque, I don't expect much negotiating.

Much like the last negotiations. Sure don't negotiate but at least get on your knees and beg him to take a discount.

 

[Dreakmur]

Buckle up and brace for impact.

More like brace for insert...

 

[nuck]

90% chance he and Marner are Leafs.

JT after takes a significant discount if he wants to stay...don't see a scenario where 88 signs a new deal here, already top heavy now.

I agree. The club may have to overpay again but I would frankly be stunned if Marner and Matthews aren't both back. The cap will be rising again on their next deals which really hurt the club on the last ones. And as good as Willie's season was, everybody seemed to be shooting the lights out this year and he wasn't even top 30 in league scoring. If they get a decent return and use the cap space more wisely they can be better in spite of losing him. If he wants the moon there are some other interesting players hitting UFA in 23-24.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I agree. The club may have to overpay again but I would frankly be stunned if Marner and Matthews aren't both back. The cap will be rising again on their next deals which really hurt the club on the last ones. And as good as Willie's season was, everybody seemed to be shooting the lights out this year and he wasn't even top 30 in league scoring. If they get a decent return and use the cap space more wisely they can be better in spite of losing him. If he wants the moon there are some other interesting players hitting UFA in 23-24.

I don't think 88 and JT have very good chemistry together, long stretches of nothing from them at 5v5.

88 has that extra year of term on him now, go for something great but different whether it's a high end D or a C/W to play on that 2nd line.

 

[Gary Nylund]

90% chance he and Marner are Leafs.

JT after takes a significant discount if he wants to stay...don't see a scenario where 88 signs a new deal here, already top heavy now.

Yeah that's about the way I see it as well. I feel like M&M will both want to stay and Nylander's just harder to get a read on. He might want to get every last dollar he can which means he'll probably test the free agent market and that's why I'd like to see a bit of a shakeup that involves Nylander moving out and a top notch goalie moving in. Do that and we'll be set for the foreseeable future IMO.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Much like the last negotiations. Sure don't negotiate but at least get on your knees and beg him to take a discount.

I thought the whole point of the expensive RFA deal was to make the UFA deal less expensive. The whole bitching and moaning about young players had not built a war chest like the veterans and needed to make some money now seems like it could be used against them in negotiations for UFA deals. So, they made their money already...set for life...what is holding you back from taking less than the market says your worth?

If AM doesn't take less than 14M after making stupid money for 5yrs shows me he doesn't care about winning. McDavid gave some money back to Edmonton. Can you see AM doing that? If he doesn't, then he never cared as much about winning as he says he does IMO.

 

[ToneDog]

I thought the whole point of the expensive RFA deal was to make the UFA deal less expensive. The whole bitching and moaning about young players had not built a war chest like the veterans and needed to make some money now seems like it could be used against them in negotiations for UFA deals. So, they made their money already...set for life...what is holding you back from taking less than the market says your worth?

If AM doesn't take less than 14M after making stupid money for 5yrs shows me he doesn't care about winning. McDavid gave some money back to Edmonton. Can you see AM doing that? If he doesn't, then he never cared as much about winning as he says he does IMO.

These guys took less term so they hit UFA at 26 and can cash in. Hopefully the bad taste losing left in their mouths changes that but I doubt it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

These guys took less term so they hit UFA at 26 and can cash in.

These guys took less term to lower the AAV so that the Leafs could fit everybody in under the cap and build around them.

 

[Stephen]

One of the Leafiest things fans do is pessimistically worry about what ifs 2-3 years from now.

We've got enough to be miserable at right now lol

I know eh? If it’s so miserable now, won’t we all be so much happier once Doomsday comes around?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

These guys took less term to lower the AAV so that the Leafs could fit everybody in under the cap and build around them.

Tavares took less, but that's it

Not to say that Matthews and Marner aren't worth the money they make, they are worth every dime.

But they didn't take less

Nylander is worth what he makes now but at the time he didn't take less considering he signed a deal for more money than David Pastarnak who had just come off 35 goals the previous season, and the season before that 35 goal season he had 34.

the only guy that took less was Tavares, SJ offered him 13 million, he took 11

nobody else in the big 4 forwards did

Rielly very likely did at 5 million but that was before Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares showed up. although he probably did take slightly less on his new deal too

 

[ToneDog]

Tavares took less, but that's it

Not to say that Matthews and Marner aren't worth the money they make, they are worth every dime.

But they didn't take less

Nylander is worth what he makes now but at the time he didn't take less considering he signed a deal for more money than David Pastarnak who had just come off 35 goals the previous season, and the season before that 35 goal season he had 34.

the only guy that took less was Tavares, SJ offered him 13 million, he took 11

nobody else in the big 4 forwards did

Rielly very likely did at 5 million but that was before Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares showed up. although he probably did take slightly less on his new deal too

Rielly took less again in his next contract because he like JT wants to be a Leaf. Hoping the 3 amigos feel the same way when they are up again.

Love Spezza's comment last year. If I could take less, I would.

 

[TheScandal89]

Rielly took less again in his next contract because he like JT wants to be a Leaf. Hoping the 3 amigos feel the same way when they are up again.

Love Spezza's comment last year. If I could take less, I would.

Matthews is gonna absolutely cash imo, all he has to decide is where he'll play. I pray its us but who knows.

I feel like Nylander will follow his dads footsteps and go to the highest bidder.

Marner, who knows, his last negotiation wasn't pleasant. Will it be this time? Hes the one you look to to take the big discount.

 

[ACC1224]

Tavares took less, but that's it

Not to say that Matthews and Marner aren't worth the money they make, they are worth every dime.

But they didn't take less

Nylander is worth what he makes now but at the time he didn't take less considering he signed a deal for more money than David Pastarnak who had just come off 35 goals the previous season, and the season before that 35 goal season he had 34.

the only guy that took less was Tavares, SJ offered him 13 million, he took 11

nobody else in the big 4 forwards did

Rielly very likely did at 5 million but that was before Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares showed up. although he probably did take slightly less on his new deal too

Always thought that sounded suspect. I don't believe it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Tavares took less, but that's it
Not to say that Matthews and Marner aren't worth the money they make, they are worth every dime.
But they didn't take less

I think you misunderstood the discussion. It was about the reason behind their terms, not about them accepting a lesser relative valuation than their comparables.

 

[notbias]

Always thought that sounded suspect. I don't believe it.

Half of the people in this thread are just yelling about their feelings as if it were fact, this at least has been reported