Despite major challanges, Kyle Dubas has passed the tests

[socko]

I don’t think anyone would deny he didn’t handle the three contracts very well. Caving to Nylander, overpaying Marner and only 5 years for Matthews. It’s hard to say which is worse.

He did well with Giordano though so perhaps he’s learning as he goes.

Yes to caving to Nylander. I mean did he really offer Nylander $7.5 a season and Nylander turned it down? If not, then he caved. And if he did offer Nylander $7.5 then why? Nylander then wasn't Nylander now. He really was a 20 goal scoring soft perimeter player then. Now, it's not true, then it was.

Yes, to overpaying Marner, by at least $2 million per season.

Yes, to only 5 years. You sign a player like Matthews long term. You just do. Huge mistake.

Giordano is just another Spezza wanting to play with the Leafs at the end of his career more than he wants money. Not going to give Dubas a lot of credit for it.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Exactly, and what's with the No Movement Clause in his 5th year ??? It means that he can walk for NOTHING in return if he doesn't accept what our Leafs offer him. That is disgusting that the player wanted that, and Dubas & company accepted it !!!

But Dubas is a nice guy and voted the GM agents like to deal with the most. Another trophy

 

[fahad203]

Crosby, Kovalchuk, Malkin, Nash, Stamkos, Statsny, Kane, Toews, Bergeron, Getzlaf, Perry, Aho, Kessel, etc..., just off the top of my head.

And Marner was 6 years. Which is also very common.

With the exception of 2 players on that list, none of those players were top 5 in league salary from their 2nd contract

Giving 5 year deal is fine, then you had to get better deals

Those players got 5 year deals, but they also gave up on total sum. Other teams got something, usually saved a lot of money to give them shorter contracts

With Matthews we didnt't get term, we didn't save money

 

[Mess]

What makes Dubas contracts even worse is the front loading and paying the contract in guaranteed signing bonuses where the base amount is so small it protects the players complete for lockouts, strikes, buyouts etc etc.. The advantage for big market teams that have the financial muscle to, and means to pay their players that these teams can get better AAV deals by giving most of the money early in the contract up front so players can invest that money.

Not with Dubas he gives out the highest prices and then 94% front loads the contracts. Marner signs a 6 year deal for $65,408 total .. Where $60,958,000 is upfront signing bonuses and only $4,450,000 base salary over 6 years or $725k average.

If you reviewed the terms of Matthews’ deal, you will notice that 94 per cent of the money allocated in that deal is by way of signing bonuses. We have talked about signing bonuses at length here for a variety of reasons, but the crux of it is two-fold: (a) it allows players to get money up front; and (b) signing bonuses are buyout proof, which creates a significant layer of insulation for the player long-term. (In conjunction with both of those points, players and agents are using signing bonuses to create protection against a potential lockout season. So it is well on the radar of every interested party.)

Signing bonuses are also a substantial weapon for big-market teams if used appropriately. Since players perceive contracts structured with signing bonus money as more appetizing, teams with relatively more financial might can stomach the big up-front, lump-sum payments relatively easier. They also can shoulder more financial risk related to potential buyouts, since these teams tend to spend close to the cap ceiling every season.

That brings me back to the Maple Leafs, who have engineered a number of key contracts by way of signing bonus in the Kyle Dubas era. Ninety-two (92%) per cent of John Tavares’ mega-deal came by way of signing bonus. Ninety four (94%) on Marner's six year deal, Fifty-four (54%) per cent of Nylander’s six-year deal came by way of signing bonus.

It also differentiates the Leafs from most teams. If you look at signing bonus money on the books for every team in the league, it is clear that there is a big-market versus small-market divide. The Leafs top the list:

Dubas contracts shatter all NHL norms, where the team should be getting the best deal by offering the best front loaded contracts, yet in Toronto the players get their cake and get to eat it too with highest AAV and also league setting precidence in upfront and signing bones, while protecting their UFA years by only agreeing to shorter terms in the process, and allowing them to double dip earlier in careers to make their club pay dearly for their next contracts, when they hold all the leverage as UFAs and NMC (no movement contracts).

 

[nuck]

I don’t think anyone would deny he didn’t handle the three contracts very well. Caving to Nylander, overpaying Marner and only 5 years for Matthews. It’s hard to say which is worse.

He did well with Giordano though so perhaps he’s learning as he goes.

At $800k there was clearly no effort on Gio's part to get real compensation so I would say he kind of signed himself. But after year one Dubas has been quite good except for Mrazek and that was only a bit above market. He turned out to be a bad add but had a good enough resume he wasn't going to sign anywhere for under $3M. Ritchie was another bad fit but the deal was fine. Third line was excellent ROI and Rielly contract is fair. I would probably even say say it is a strength of Dubas now although the true test he has to pass is going to be after next year with the AM and WN extensions.

Regarding the whiffs on some of the teams trades Troy Bodie had been the head of pro scouting since 2018 and it was his role to have an evaluation on upcoming UFAs and potential trade targets. He gets props for Kampf but Mrazek, Jumbo, Foligno, Barrie, Ceci are all players Dubas would have been heavily relying on his detailed knowledge of and it seems like the input was not very good. I am glad the guy bolted to the Kraken

 

[DarkKnight]

He very specifically didn't cave to Nylander, he didn't overpay Marner, and 5 years is the most common post-ELC term for a player of Matthews' tier.

He absolutely did, he no question did and in no way is it near the most “common”.

Also, sweet lord bruh.

 

[DarkKnight]

What makes Dubas contracts even worse is the front loading and paying the contract in guaranteed signing bonuses where the base amount is so small it protects the players complete for lockouts, strikes, buyouts etc etc.. The advantage for big market teams that have the financial muscle to, and means to pay their players that these teams can get better AAV deals by giving most of the money early in the contract up front so players can invest that money.

Not with Dubas he gives out the highest prices and then 94% front loads the contracts. Marner signs a 6 year deal for $65,408 total .. Where $60,958,000 is upfront signing bonuses and only$4,450,000 base salary over 6 years or $725k average.

If you reviewed the terms of Matthews’ deal, you will notice that 94 per cent of the money allocated in that deal is by way of signing bonuses. We have talked about signing bonuses at length here for a variety of reasons, but the crux of it is two-fold: (a) it allows players to get money up front; and (b) signing bonuses are buyout proof, which creates a significant layer of insulation for the player long-term. (In conjunction with both of those points, players and agents are using signing bonuses to create protection against a potential lockout season. So it is well on the radar of every interested party.)

Signing bonuses are also a substantial weapon for big-market teams if used appropriately. Since players perceive contracts structured with signing bonus money as more appetizing, teams with relatively more financial might can stomach the big up-front, lump-sum payments relatively easier. They also can shoulder more financial risk related to potential buyouts, since these teams tend to spend close to the cap ceiling every season.

That brings me back to the Maple Leafs, who have engineered a number of key contracts by way of signing bonus in the Kyle Dubas era. Ninety-two (92%) per cent of John Tavares’ mega-deal came by way of signing bonus. Ninety four (94%) on Marner's six year deal, Fifty-four (54%) per cent of Nylander’s six-year deal came by way of signing bonus.

It also differentiates the Leafs from most teams. If you look at signing bonus money on the books for every team in the league, it is clear that there is a big-market versus small-market divide. The Leafs top the list:

View attachment 553471

Dubas contracts shatter all NHL norms, where the team should be getting the best deal by offering the best front loaded contracts, yet in Toronto the players get their cake and get to eat it too with highest AAV and also league setting precidence in upfront and signing bones, while protecting their UFA years by only agreeing to shorter terms in the process.

Yep, recall the front loading was supposed to be our ace in the hole negotaction wise. Not only did these guys get top dollar, the got sweetheart front loaded deals as well, which apologists conveniently and forever ignore. The agents rolled Dubas hard, it’s just stragglers here that can’t accept it. No leverage and still got it all.

With McDavid the best player in the game with contract locked at $12.5 mil per X 8 years as the ceiling, it made signing Matthews almost foolproof, that its hard to imagine any GM blowing that even if he made Auston the 2nd highest AAV in the league. The 8 year term was locked in stone for buying 4 X UFA away from the player, all you had to do is find the $$$ below the ceiling cost even if Dubas had given an unproven Matthews his $11.64 mil on future potential everyone could have lived with it.

An 8 year contract coming out of an ELC is first 4 years X RFA cost controllable years + last 4 X UFA expensive years. With the CBA offering 8 year terms to re-sign players for cost certainty to clubs.

So the McDavid deal was structured for easy math purposes 4 X $10 mil for RFA years and 4 X $15 mil for UFA years = $100 mil over 8 = $12.5 mil AAV.

Dubas got to buy only 1 single year of Free Agency from Matthews (not 4) and signed him for $58,195,000 X 5 YEARS = $11,634,000 AAV.

So if you solve for the cost of the 1 X UFA year based the McDavid model above 4 X $10 mil for RFA years + ? 1 X UFA year = $58,195,000

Year #1 @ $10 mil + Year #2 @ $10 mil + Year #3 @ $10 mil + Year #4 @ $10 mil (RFA years) + 1 X $18.196 mil (UFA) = $58,195,000

If that isn't bad enough, not only does the vast overpayment for the 1 UFA year it makes him a UFA at age 26 now, so when Leafs go to re-sign him the McDavid deal will still have 3 X years @$12.5 mil value and what is Matthews new next contract price $15 - $17 mil AAV (or 20% of cap ceiling as per CBA) per instead of the $11.64 mil it should have been on a full 8 year deal?

Or as it was portrayed around the league... Auston Matthews’ five-year contract extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs this week sent shock waves through the National Hockey League, considering the comparable for Matthews. was Conner McDavid in Edmonton signed an eight-year, $100 million contract out of his ELC.

Well said, and just cold hard facts.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

5 years certainly isn’t.

I’m not sure who else has signed 5 year deals out of their ELC’s other than Matthews and Marner.

Marner had a 6 year deal, but to answer your question: Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, Stamkos... To name a few.

All of them (except Malkin because he was a little bit older at the time and was able to get a NMC all 5 years) had the exact same kind of deal: 5 year deal, NMC in the final year.

All of them re-signed, and the ones who got paid well on their first deals (Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos) took discounts on their next ones (which were 8+ years). Toews and Kane took discounts on the 5 year deal so they got paid a little bit extra on their 8 year deal. Matthews more likely falls in the former category.

People are seriously freaking out about something that has happened many times before without incident. As long as you don't do something to push your star players out, like what happened Tavares or Pietrangelo, then you typically do not lose them.

 

[Dekes For Days]

With the exception of 2 players on that list, none of those players were top 5 in league salary from their 2nd contract

5 of the top 8 post-ELC cap hit percentages ever given out were on 5 year terms. Their contracts are appropriate at their term relative to the history of post-ELC contracts.

He absolutely did, he no question did and in no way is it near the most “common”.

He didn't overpay any of them, and 5 years is factually the most common term at that tier.

Yep, recall the front loading was supposed to be our ace in the hole negotaction wise.

Front loading/bonus money is used to offset tax disadvantages, not significantly impact AAV.

 

[Stephen]

Go look at all the prime years top players in the league, his age comparables, salaries, you won’t find a 5 year deal, mostly 8 and 7, with sacrificed UFA years. Matthews deal is the arguably the worst, his agent was probably winded running to Dubas’ office to sign.

I don't want to defend the 5 year deal too much cause it annoys me as much as it annoys you.

But the 5-6 year deal after ELC has been fairly commonplace among Top 5 picks over the years. Just look at Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares, Victor Hedman, Aleksander Barkov, Morgan Rielly, Jonathan Huberdeau.

 

[Shooter2x]

The contracts don't bother me too much. Marners contract structure makes him the best trade chip in the universe now. Can't objectively claim it's a bad contract if it has that trait.

Contract talk is all noise anyways. Dubas major flaws lie else where.

 

[Mess]

Yep, recall the front loading was supposed to be our ace in the hole negotaction wise. Not only did these guys get top dollar, the got sweetheart front loaded deals as well, which apologists conveniently and forever ignore. The agents rolled Dubas hard, it’s just stragglers here that can’t accept it. No leverage and still got it all.


Well said, and just cold hard facts.

Dubas better hope he doesn't get fired because based on his AAV contracts and front-loaded deals that only a precious few NHL teams could afford to allow him to mismanage their finances and not deliver any playoff success.

Can you imagine Dubas working for a small market team, playing on a budget and spending $16 mil below the cap ceiling because that is all they can afford and Dubas bringing them one of those highest AAV contracts in the league and then telling the owner its 94% front loaded, of which he is @ 100% risk on hook for that amount, regardless of strike or lockout or buyout or recession and injury where even insurance only covers the small base amount and the organization the guaranteed signing bonus?

Small markets require revenue from gate receipts and merchandise simply to pay salaries, so this Dubas big market free spending without results would and could never fly.

 

[DarkKnight]

I don't want to defend the 5 year deal too much cause it annoys me as much as it annoys you.

But the 5-6 year deal after ELC has been fairly commonplace among Top 5 picks over the years. Just look at Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares, Victor Hedman, Aleksander Barkov, Morgan Rielly, Jonathan Huberdeau.

You can also look here and note how 5 years is an anomaly, so….

Highest-paid NHL Players of 2021-22 - Boardroom

From Connor McDavid to Auston Matthews and beyond, Boardroom highlights the highest-paid NHL players of 2022 by total salary.

boardroom.tv

 

[Dekes For Days]

Can you imagine Dubas working for a small market team, playing on a budget and spending $16 mil below the cap ceiling because that is all they can afford and Dubas bringing them one of those highest AAV contracts in the league and then telling the owner its 94% front loaded

If Dubas worked for a small market team, he'd be more likely to be in a lower tax location, and so contract structure wouldn't need to be arranged with front loading/bonuses to lessen the gap in end compensation.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

You can also look here and note how 5 years is an anomaly, so….

Highest-paid NHL Players of 2021-22 - Boardroom

From Connor McDavid to Auston Matthews and beyond, Boardroom highlights the highest-paid NHL players of 2022 by total salary.

boardroom.tv

You are looking at a list that only has 4 post-ELC deals on it...

And 3 of them were 5 or 6 years (Matthews, Rantanen, Marner).

The only one that is not is McDavid's.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You can also look here and note how 5 years is an anomaly, so….

For the record, most of those players are at the stage of their careers where 8 years decreases the cap hit, and not sure why you're looking primarily at totally incomparable contracts in the first place.

 

[Stephen]

You can also look here and note how 5 years is an anomaly, so….

Highest-paid NHL Players of 2021-22 - Boardroom

From Connor McDavid to Auston Matthews and beyond, Boardroom highlights the highest-paid NHL players of 2022 by total salary.

boardroom.tv

Why do I need an article when I've already provided very high end comparables? I would have preferred 8 years but we'll just have to re-sign him.

 

[DarkKnight]

Marner had a 6 year deal, but to answer your question: Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, Stamkos... To name a few.

All the previous generations of stars, the outdated norm as examples.

And nobody is freaking out, just this nonsense these are good deals the Dubists actually still peddle. When the deals we signed the whole league was taken aback, talk other GM’s were made, agents loved Dubas the most, all these objective qualifies and yet here, it’s some debate.

Matthews could walk at 26, enjoy.

 

[DarkKnight]

Why do I need an article when I've already provided very high end comparables? I would have preferred 8 years but we'll just have to re-sign him.

That list isn’t comparable? It simply shows the disconnect between salary and term as it relates to Matthews. Sorry I didn’t realize what you provided was written on a tablet and everything else irrelevant. And if you don’t like the term either, why are you defending it continually, just to be argumentative for its own sake.

The big three rolled Dubas.

 

[Trapper]

It doesn’t matter what anyone thinks of Dubas at this point. This is where we are. IMO this is a no lose year or goodbye.
No excuses, no good try, no get ‘‘em next year. So long.

 

[DarkKnight]

You are looking at a list that only has 4 post-ELC deals on it...

And 3 of them were 5 or 6 years (Matthews, Rantanen, Marner).

The only one that is not is McDavid's.

How many hit free agency at 26? Oh well, the wake up call is coming, tick tock.

 

[Dekes For Days]

All the previous generations of stars, the outdated norm as examples.

The only reason you think it's odd is because we had a drought of high-end talent entering the league in the early 2010s, and so when some of the best players in the entire cap era entered the league in the mid 2010s and it came time to sign them in the late 2010s, the cap had risen an extent in between that entirely normal cap hit percentages looked big and it skewed perception.

The post-ELC signing "norms" haven't really changed much throughout the cap era. People just really struggle to understand how contracts work around here.

 

[DarkKnight]

It doesn’t matter what anyone thinks of Dubas at this point. This is where we are. IMO this is a no lose year or goodbye.
No excuses, no good try, no get ‘‘em next year. So long.

Agreed. It doesn’t really matter now and to be fair the stagnant cap was an unforseen handicap with regard to these contracts.

 

[Dreakmur]

Cap space - I'm sure you get my meaning. We didn't have to give up players, picks etc. so adding an elite #1 centre to our roster under those circumstances was a major coup. But sure, we still had to pay him.

Cap space can be used to bring in a player, just like a draft pick. It should be treated as a valuable asset.

All I said was that it was Nylander that caved at the last minute, not Dubas. Amazing that people are still saying the opposite. But you don't have any problem with those people, right?

I don’t know who caved, but I do know that 7.5 million was way too much on a 6 year deal for a player who put up a couple of 60 point seasons and doesn’t contribute anything in addition to those points.

 

[BallardEra]

It doesn’t matter what anyone thinks of Dubas at this point. This is where we are. IMO this is a no lose year or goodbye.
No excuses, no good try, no get ‘‘em next year. So long.

Many felt that way before this past season started up as well.