WTFMAN99
Registered User
- Jun 17, 2009
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Take it to the bank, we win a cup, I will tattoo "Dubas rules" on my ass.
Despite major challanges, Kyle Dubas has passed the tests
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socko
Registered User
The Matthews contract was easily the least offensive of the Big 3 contracts. Marner was the most offensive. Willie should have sat out a season. That's where it all went south for Dubas. Ane Eichel doesn't belong in the same conversation with McDavid and Matthews.
WTFMAN99
Registered User
- Jun 17, 2009
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No, it definitely was a f*** up by Dubas when you had the comparables. We all know how things are now but McDavid was considered the best young centre in the league and then Eichel signed that 10M 8 year deal.
Well, we know our boy isn't McDavd, the production and the hardware wasn't there but we could rationalize paying him a bit under McDavid...for 8 years. For a 5 year, the aav shouldn't have been where it was.
I think you're safe. I can guarantee you that we won't win a cup with dubas as the GM.
Hell. Nevermind the cup, I think they'll be touch and go to win a series with Dubas. Lol.
socko
Registered User
Well, I don't disagree. Although I think the Tavares contract was the floor for Matthews. Even though Tavares was a UFA, I never really believed Matthews would take less of a deal than Tavares, being a vastly superior player. Matthews was really the only guy who could play the offer sheet card IMO, which limited the Leafs power. I mean if anyone wanted to give us 4 first round picks for Marner along with $11 million in cap space. He's yours.
Yup. That's the Dubas club for you. Lol.
My favorite ism from that group is in 1 breath, they will say "this years game 7 loss is different from previous years" and then in the next breath they'll say "It doesn't matter if you lose in the 1st/2nd/CF/SCF. It's still the same. You either win or you lose"
The mental gymnastics from that side is amazing.
Dreakmur
Registered User
11 million in cap space is an asset.
Even if Dubas held firm, he overpaid at the time. The contract he supposedly held firm on was for 7.5 million, but the cap hit was lowered by Nylander not fulfilling the entirety.
DarkKnight
Professional Amateur
- Jan 17, 2017
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Matthews expiring at age 26 as a UFA is a colossal failure. He only gave up one year of UFA, received a massively front loaded payout and got maximum money. It’s a joke contract, his agent couldn’t sign fast enough and we’re about to find out why very soon. 26, farcical.
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socko
Registered User
What could Matthews have got on an offer sheet though? I mean he scored 40 goals as a rookie. And while he wasn't one of the top 2 players in the world at the time, it seemed reasonable he would be up there somewhere in the near future. You can't go just by the McDavid contract because Connor is a good guy and all. I can see a situation where someone offers Matthews a 5 year deal at max contract and all we get out of it is 4 lousy picks.
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Put one on your forehead for all to see that you were a doubter.
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Up to 20% of the cap for 8 years. Guessing Dubas paid somewhere between 12 and 14?? on an 8 year deal, but brought it down to a 5 year deal at 11.634 in order to reduce the AAV, knowing Marner was up next. Sheer brilliance by the Shanaclan.
DarkKnight
Professional Amateur
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Go look at all the prime years top players in the league, his age comparables, salaries, you won’t find a 5 year deal, mostly 8 and 7, with sacrificed UFA years. Matthews deal is the arguably the worst, his agent was probably winded running to Dubas’ office to sign.
socko
Registered User
Welll again if he goes the offer sheet route, we get 4 first round picks. That's the compensation. We paid a first to get rid of Marleau and we paid a first for 10 games of Nick Foligno. So that's half of your compensation right there.
Gary Nylund
Registered User
- Oct 10, 2013
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Cap space - I'm sure you get my meaning. We didn't have to give up players, picks etc. so adding an elite #1 centre to our roster under those circumstances was a major coup. But sure, we still had to pay him.
All I said was that it was Nylander that caved at the last minute, not Dubas. Amazing that people are still saying the opposite. But you don't have any problem with those people, right?
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Mess
Global Moderator
With McDavid the best player in the game with contract locked at $12.5 mil per X 8 years as the ceiling, it made signing Matthews almost foolproof, that its hard to imagine any GM blowing that even if he made Auston the 2nd highest AAV in the league. The 8 year term was locked in stone for buying 4 X UFA away from the player, all you had to do is find the $$$ below the ceiling cost even if Dubas had given an unproven Matthews his $11.64 mil on future potential everyone could have lived with it.
An 8 year contract coming out of an ELC is first 4 years X RFA cost controllable years + last 4 X UFA expensive years. With the CBA offering 8 year terms to re-sign players for cost certainty to clubs.
So the McDavid deal was structured for easy math purposes 4 X $10 mil for RFA years and 4 X $15 mil for UFA years = $100 mil over 8 = $12.5 mil AAV.
Dubas got to buy only 1 single year of Free Agency from Matthews (not 4) and signed him for $58,195,000 X 5 YEARS = $11,634,000 AAV.
So if you solve for the cost of the 1 X UFA year based the McDavid model above 4 X $10 mil for RFA years + ? 1 X UFA year = $58,195,000
Year #1 @ $10 mil + Year #2 @ $10 mil + Year #3 @ $10 mil + Year #4 @ $10 mil (RFA years) + 1 X $18.196 mil (UFA) = $58,195,000
If that isn't bad enough, not only does the vast overpayment for the 1 UFA year it makes him a UFA at age 26 now, so when Leafs go to re-sign him the McDavid deal will still have 3 X years @$12.5 mil value and what is Matthews new next contract price $15 - $17 mil AAV (or 20% of cap ceiling as per CBA) per instead of the $11.64 mil it should have been on a full 8 year deal?
Or as it was portrayed around the league... Auston Matthews’ five-year contract extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs this week sent shock waves through the National Hockey League, considering the comparable for Matthews. was Conner McDavid in Edmonton signed an eight-year, $100 million contract out of his ELC.
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5 years is the most common post-ELC term for players of Matthews' tier, and his cap hit percentage is consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts. He earned the 6th highest value post-ELC contract in the cap era, and was at worst the 5th best player at time of signing.
MessierII
Registered User
- Aug 10, 2011
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Only two players in the cap era have signed for over 10 million AAV and not given their teams max term. Guess who they are?
socko
Registered User
That's irrelevant. Justice doesn't matter. Precedent doesn't matter. McDavid's contract doesn't matter. All that matters is rules and leverage. The San Jose sharks offered Tavares a contract of $13 million a year for 7 seasons, which stretches out well beyond his prime, yes as a UFA. If you offer sheet Matthews, you will have to give up 4 first round picks and pay him. Would you rather pay Tavares $13 million and keep your picks or pay Matthews $13 million and give up 4 first round pics? That's one incredibly easy answer for me. So based on that, I think he could have done better with an offer sheet than what Dubas gave him. I personally think the offer sheet compensation should go back to a max of 5 first round picks, that seems more fair for players of this caliber.
Could a better GM have got him at a lower value? Probably. But Matthews, being a generational talent with a pretty damn weak offer sheet compensation, had strong leverage and if he was willing to use it, the Leafs would have ended up paying more matching the offer sheet. Quite possibly the league max of 20% of the salary cap.
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By using AAV instead of cap hit percentage, you're intentionally eliminating the majority of players throughout the cap era that signed under a lower cap - which makes it meaningless. Matthews got the 6th highest value post-ELC contract in the cap era, term included, and was at worst the 5th best player. There's nothing wrong with his contract.
Al14
Registered User
- Jul 13, 2007
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Exactly, and what's with the No Movement Clause in his 5th year ??? It means that he can walk for NOTHING in return if he doesn't accept what our Leafs offer him. That is disgusting that the player wanted that, and Dubas & company accepted it !!!
ACC1224
Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
- Aug 19, 2002
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I don’t think anyone would deny he didn’t handle the three contracts very well. Caving to Nylander, overpaying Marner and only 5 years for Matthews. It’s hard to say which is worse.
He did well with Giordano though so perhaps he’s learning as he goes.
He very specifically didn't cave to Nylander, he didn't overpay Marner, and 5 years is the most common post-ELC term for a player of Matthews' tier.
BondraTime
Registered User
5 years certainly isn’t.
I’m not sure who else has signed 5 year deals out of their ELC’s other than Matthews and Marner.
Crosby, Kovalchuk, Malkin, Nash, Stamkos, Statsny, Kane, Toews, Bergeron, Getzlaf, Perry, Aho, Kessel, etc..., just off the top of my head.
And Marner was 6 years. Which is also very common.
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