HF Habs: Deep Dive on the AHL and influence on a team's rebuild

Le Barron de HF · Aug 27, 2024

Hello all,

So I’ve been working on this side project for the last few weeks, throwing in some data whenever I have some time to spare. This was quite the undertaking but I figured it’d be an interesting exercise given the vitriol spilt when Vincent was named as HC of the Rocket and all the previous discussions on development and/or how to build a proper Stanley Cup contender.

Disclaimer: I am no data analyst, I tried to go with common sense for some of these. There may have been a better approach on some of these categories or some things may have been overlooked. This was more complex than the exercise I did when I looked at defensemen a couple months ago (see link: Player Discussion - Analysis of the league's top d-men - Patience is key)

The premise of this project was to see:

Is the AHL overrated as a developmental league: does it seem to have a positive impact in producing NHLers?
Does team success in the AHL matter?
How much the AHL may have helped for producing cheap talent once a team was in its window of contention.

I selected 13 organizations that have gone or are still going through rebuilds since the 2009-2010 season. My sample size is 99 AHL teams during that timespan. I did not go beyond the year of 2021-22 nor past the 2020 draft since for some of these players it’s either too early to tell or their exposure to AHL has been limited. For the most part, except for the unlucky fanbases still stuck in a rebuild, my rule of thumb for a complete rebuild cycle + window was 8 years (5 years to accumulate assets and 3 years of contention). For some teams, the sample size may have been shorter due to time period I looked at or may have been longer if team was spinning its wheels in mud. Another element that was taken into account to decide the cutoff for some of these were draft picks. A team such as the Isles that had no 1st round select in 2017 were considered as a team that no longer saw themselves as part of a rebuild which explains why the next year omitted when they had two fairly early 1st round picks.

Is the AHL overrated as a developmental league: does it seem to have a positive impact in producing NHLers?

Here is a look at all the players in that sample size that have played 150 or more NHL games and the amount of AHL games they played. For the methodology, the role criterion is a little subjective and I tried to either go with the production during this player’s peak or ice time for defensemen.

FUTURE NHLERS	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
GUSTAVSSON	95	111	52	1A goaltender	2
HILL	140	136	64	1A goaltender	3
MONTEMBEAULT	104	144	49	1A goaltender	3
NEDELKOVIC	181	141	60	1B goaltender	2
DOSTAL	98	67	19	1B goaltender	3
WOLL	84	36	21	1B Goaltender	3
DACCORD	98	69	22	1B goaltender	7
LUNDESTROM	55	258	69	4th line	1
BASTIAN	188	217	58	4th line	2
CARRIER	127	413	107	4th line	2
GREER	278	167	32	4th line	2
GRUNDSTROM	99	236	67	4th line	2
LARSSON	164	488	132	4th line	2
STENLUND	160	206	44	4th line	2
CIZIKAS	83	815	245	4th line	4
PAQUETTE	89	448	95	4th line	4
CARRICK	471	240	53	4th line	5
EYSSIMONT	229	136	40	4th line	5
MACKENZIE	339	611	125	4th line	5
MARTIN	83	955	176	4th line	5
BRAZEAU	189	19	7	4th line	Undrafted
MCMANN	118	66	25	4th line	Undrafted
SHERWOOD	186	187	58	4th line	Undrafted
BLACKWOOD	90	196	75	Back-up goaltender	2
STOLARZ	155	108	43	Back-up goaltender	2
WEDGEWOOD	191	130	48	Back-up goaltender	3
KORPISALO	47	276	115	Back-up goaltender	3
A. FORSBERG	186	160	63	Back-up goaltender	7
LANKINEN	40	112	45	Back-up goaltender	Undrafted
GIRGENSONS	61	688	188	Bottom 6 forward	1
KUPARI	86	158	30	Bottom 6 forward	1
MCLEOD	108	287	85	Bottom 6 forward	1
STEEL	53	339	117	Bottom 6 forward	1
NASH	312	628	176	Bottom 6 forward	1
MCGINN	134	508	150	Bottom 6 forward	2
SPRONG	109	344	159	Bottom 6 forward	2
AMADIO	130	369	112	Bottom 6 forward	3
GEEKIE	130	256	102	Bottom 6 forward	3
CALVERT	128	566	203	Bottom 6 forward	5
KAMPF	33	477	130	Bottom 6 forward	Undrafted
MATTHIAS	88	551	174	Bottom 6 forward	2
BEAN	129	197	56	Bottom pair defenseman	1
BRANNSTROM	90	266	69	Bottom pair defenseman	1
DE HAAN	76	632	141	Bottom pair defenseman	1
DEANGELO	123	371	210	Bottom pair defenseman	1
JOKIHARJU	30	347	87	Bottom pair defenseman	1
LILJEGREN	150	196	65	Bottom pair defenseman	1
PYSYK	182	521	104	Bottom pair defenseman	1
J. MOORE	114	544	118	Bottom pair defenseman	1
HOLL	194	323	87	Bottom pair defenseman	2
MAYFIELD	223	469	116	Bottom pair defenseman	2
PETROVIC	427	264	50	Bottom pair defenseman	2
GUDAS	206	748	182	Bottom pair defenseman	3
BORGEN	140	214	53	Bottom pair defenseman	4
HAKANPAA	179	288	45	Bottom pair defenseman	4
SPENCE	103	101	33	Bottom pair defenseman	4
D. RADDYSH	339	193	36	Bottom pair defenseman	Undrafted
HOLDEN	295	654	178	Bottom pair defenseman	Undrafted
BAHL	84	148	25	Bottom pair defenseman	2
GUSTAFSSON	120	455	222	Bottom pair defenseman	4
FLEURY	106	268	37	Depth defenseman	1
KOEKKOEK	187	186	34	Depth defenseman	1
R. MURPHY	285	175	43	Depth defenseman	1
TINORDI	429	205	30	Depth defenseman	1
DERMOTT	88	329	62	Depth defenseman	2
ENGLUND	300	162	17	Depth defenseman	2
GOLOUBEF	353	160	25	Depth defenseman	2
MCBAIN	210	348	110	Depth defenseman	2
HARRISON	277	372	75	Depth defenseman	3
MAHURA	112	191	45	Depth defenseman	3
BRYSON	76	206	36	Depth defenseman	4
HARPUR	200	198	21	Depth defenseman	4
BIEGA	397	243	42	Depth defenseman	5
NESTEROV	96	170	37	Depth defenseman	5
BARBERIO	267	272	56	Depth defenseman	6
J. BROWN	170	290	34	Depth defenseman	6
PROUT	165	264	38	Depth defenseman	6
BENOIT	162	201	20	Depth defenseman	Undrafted
HANLEY	359	193	29	Depth defenseman	Undrafted
KUKAN	142	153	30	Depth defenseman	Undrafted
RUHWEDEL	211	364	49	Depth defenseman	Undrafted
F. GAUTHIER	228	178	31	Depth forward	1
J. GAUTHIER	205	180	41	Depth forward	1
JONES	51	258	62	Depth forward	1
PERLINI	98	262	81	Depth forward	1
ASPLUND	178	183	49	Depth forward	2
COMTOIS	35	211	87	Depth forward	2
DALPE	565	168	32	Depth forward	2
DI GIUSEPPE	306	282	75	Depth forward	2
ERNE	195	379	91	Depth forward	2
FISCHER	63	477	130	Depth forward	2
GRIMALDI	433	203	67	Depth forward	2
JOEY ANDERSON	179	151	39	Depth forward	3
BOWMAN	264	179	33	Depth forward	3
CHAPUT	445	182	22	Depth forward	3
ENTWISTLE	80	193	35	Depth forward	3
LAMMIKKO	143	159	26	Depth forward	3
LEIPSIC	188	187	59	Depth forward	3
LEIVO	227	265	93	Depth forward	3
MCKEGG	454	233	39	Depth forward	3
SESTITO	380	154	21	Depth forward	3
SHAW	449	232	39	Depth forward	3
WAGNER	138	178	42	Depth forward	4
WALLMARK	112	187	59	Depth forward	4
BALCERS	179	170	62	Depth forward	5
C. TERRY	815	152	38	Depth forward	5
SEDLAK	159	192	35	Depth forward	6
BLACKWELL	187	235	74	Depth forward	7
LORENTZ	93	230	43	Depth forward	7
JT BROWN	132	365	72	Depth forward	Undrafted
CONACHER	437	193	75	Depth forward	Undrafted
ELLIS	435	356	49	Depth forward	Undrafted
FLYNN	198	275	61	Depth forward	Undrafted
HALEY	480	274	32	Depth forward	Undrafted
HUNT	269	230	51	Depth forward	Undrafted
KELLY	128	177	35	Depth forward	Undrafted
MACDERMID	194	265	31	Depth forward	Undrafted
ROBINSON	68	306	91	Depth forward	Undrafted
ROONEY	242	260	50	Depth forward	Undrafted
KOSKINEN	41	168	85	Depth goaltender	2
PETERSEN	184	106	46	Depth goaltender	5
DOMINGUE	198	143	60	Depth goaltender	5
TOKARSKI	423	80	23	Depth goaltender	5
KINKAID	250	169	70	Depth goaltender	Undrafted
SODERBLOM	71	50	7	Depth goaltender	Undrafted
ARMIA	134	505	178	Middle 6 forward	1
CONNOLLY	174	536	195	Middle 6 forward	1
HAYTON	35	209	84	Middle 6 forward	1
HOLTZ	76	110	34	Middle 6 forward	1
KAPANEN	119	460	208	Middle 6 forward	1
KASSIAN	66	661	203	Middle 6 forward	1
MILANO	171	310	137	Middle 6 forward	1
NAMESNIKOV	134	708	298	Middle 6 forward	1
REICHEL	121	99	32	Middle 6 forward	1
C. WHITE	72	320	113	Middle 6 forward	1
FORMENTON	76	109	39	Middle 6 forward	2
MARTINOOK	182	641	197	Middle 6 forward	2
PANIK	205	521	195	Middle 6 forward	2
RASK	86	506	223	Middle 6 forward	2
COLEMAN	66	542	251	Middle 6 forward	3
FOEGELE	73	431	163	Middle 6 forward	3
ZETTERLUND	138	163	75	Middle 6 forward	3
JOSH ANDERSON	111	535	223	Middle 6 forward	4
FOLIGNO	93	798	294	Middle 6 forward	4
KURASHEV	42	266	116	Middle 6 forward	4
PAUL	217	410	158	Middle 6 forward	4
RIEDER	73	478	145	Middle 6 forward	4
N. ROY	168	298	135	Middle 6 forward	4
GARLAND	131	404	241	Middle 6 forward	5
C. BROWN	110	519	228	Middle 6 forward	6
ENGVALL	94	318	120	Middle 6 forward	7
JOHNSSON	165	259	116	Middle 6 forward	7
CARCONE	398	104	38	Middle 6 forward	Undrafted
RYAN	79	570	203	Middle 6 forward	Undrafted
NYLANDER	75	603	528	Star forward	1
MARKSTROM	165	485	215	Star goaltender	1
VASILEVSKY	37	477	293	Star goaltender	1
ULLMARK	127	247	138	Starter	6
MATHESON	59	547	234	Top 4D	1
C. MURPHY	36	677	141	Top 4D	1
SANDIN	66	227	86	Top 4D	1
DURZI	91	212	106	Top 4D	2
HAMONIC	42	841	235	Top 4D	2
MCCABE	58	577	152	Top 4D	2
SAMUELSSON	45	150	29	Top 4D	2
MCNABB	159	740	159	Top 4D	3
PELECH	105	500	140	Top 4D	3
M. ANDERSON	53	268	58	Top 4D	4
SAVARD	176	795	227	Top 4D	4
M. ROY	102	369	106	Top 4D	7
GARRISON	183	555	160	Top 4D	Undrafted
WALKER	86	313	96	Top 4D	Undrafted
CROUSE	58	504	197	Top 6 forward	1
MITTELSTADT	36	357	196	Top 6 forward	1
NECAS	64	362	243	Top 6 forward	1
NIEDERREITER	80	887	443	Top 6 forward	1
NORRIS	56	183	123	Top 6 forward	1
QUINN	60	104	58	Top 6 forward	1
R. STROME	55	782	439	Top 6 forward	1
VILARDI	75	199	114	Top 6 forward	1
PETERKA	70	161	82	Top 6 forward	2
BJORKSTRAND	88	545	338	Top 6 forward	3
DADONOV	155	537	321	Top 6 forward	3
KILLORN	54	868	502	Top 6 forward	3
BUNTING	323	268	181	Top 6 forward	4
MACCELLI	47	169	112	Top 6 forward	4
SHARANGOVICH	125	287	165	Top 6 forward	5
PALAT	117	748	477	Top 6 forward	7
JOHNSON	137	738	431	Top 6 forward	Undrafted
MARCHMENT	130	240	142	Top 6 forward	Undrafted
T. MOORE	173	345	175	Top 6 forward	Undrafted
BYFIELD	59	179	88	Top line forward	1
JOHANSEN	40	905	578	Top line forward	1
MCCANN	42	586	337	Top line forward	1
NELSON	71	840	531	Top line forward	1
D. STROME	50	436	302	Top line forward	1
TROCHECK	78	719	519	Top line forward	3
VERHAEGHE	211	330	249	Top line forward	3
BATHERSON	103	309	225	Top line forward	4
HYMAN	59	580	399	Top line forward	5
T. TERRY	55	350	230	Top line forward	5
ATKINSON	89	770	480	Top line forward	6
HAGEL	67	293	207	Top line forward	6
LEE	59	759	453	Top line forward	6
MARCHESSAULT	306	638	487	Top line forward	Undrafted
PULOCK	163	486	191	Top pair defenseman	1
FAULK	43	902	426	Top pair defenseman	2
TOEWS	130	397	234	Top pair defenseman	4
FORSLING	110	397	161	Top pair defenseman	5
WEEGAR	153	469	204	Top pair defenseman	7

Per Round	#
1	52	25%
2	39	19%
3	31	15%
4	22	10%
5	17	8%
6	9	4%
7	9	4%
Undrafted	31	15%
Total	210

Role	#	AVG AHL games
Star forward	1	75
Top 4D	14	90
Top line forward	14	92
Top 6 forward	19	100
Star goaltender	2	101
1A Goaltender	3	113
Bottom 6 forward	12	114
1B Goaltender	4	115
Back-up goaltender	6	118
Top pair defenseman	5	120
Middle 6 forward	29	124
Starter	1	127
Bottom pair defenseman	19	168
4th line	16	178
Depth goaltender	6	194
Depth defenseman	21	218
Depth forward	38	248

Some key takeaways:

The AHL is obviously for projects or players that need to work on some aspects of their game which explains why 75% of the NHLers produced were non 1st rounders. Undrafted players represent a whopping 15% of the produced NHLers total.

Another observation is without surprise that 65 of 210 NHL regulars (more than 30%) consisted of depth or reserve players. By the same token, the more important the role, the more you saw the average of career AHL games go down. It is not surprising to see that goaltender is probably the position that spends the most time to work on their game in the minors before making to the NHL. Limited opportunities and prioritizing game time vs barely playing are key factors.

Among the impactful players that came through the AHL (top 6 forwards, starting goalies, top line, stars etc). 20 out of 59 were 1st round picks and a total of 36 of those 59 were selected in the first three rounds of the draft.

The average of NHL regulars per team came up at 2.12, so over time, it’s expected that an AHL team produced 2 players a year that ended up reaching 150 NHL games or more.
Another important element to take into account is how a team does at the draft table. I analyzed the first, second and third round selections of those teams in that sample. I based myself off this link to gauge if they met expectations or not depending on draft rank or round selection: Success Rates of NHL Draft Picks - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest News, Analysis & More I went with an approach that the rebuilding teams would bat above average and aim for the prospects drafted to finish in the 25-30% probability range. These were the following thresholds for 2nd round picks: 300+ NHL games played (25.1% of second rounders have hit that milestone over NHL history) and 100+ NHL games played for 3rd round picks (28.2% of third rounders have hit that milestone over NHL history). For first rounders it become more some case by case basis considering how much it fluctuates the later you get in the first round. I went with a point criteria for forwards and GP for defenseman, again aiming in the 25-30% probability range.

Here is the overall view of the 259 picks that were part of this sample (the players marked as N/A for expectations are players where it’s too early to determine).

NOTE: I did go with the mentality for some that even if they ended up taking longer to develop, in certain of those cases the team that had them had given up on them so they did not help their team’s rebuild (e.g. Dylan Strome, Ryan Strome, etc).

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
A. BOQVIST	1ST ROUND	8	2018	NO	15
A. KARLSSON	3RD ROUND		2014	NO	0
A. NYLANDER	1ST ROUND	8	2016	NO	330
A. SVECHNIKOV	1ST ROUND	2	2018	YES	0
A. VLASIC	2ND ROUND		2019	YES	56
A.BIEGA	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	397
ABRAMOV	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	148
AHO	2ND ROUND		2015	YES	0
ALT	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	465
ALTSHULLER	3RD ROUND		2012	NO	43
AMIROV	1ST ROUND	15	2020	N/A	n/a
ASPLUND	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	178
B. HART	2ND ROUND		2012	NO	58
B. MARTIN	3RD ROUND		2014	NO	21
B. TKACHUK	1ST ROUND	4	2018	YES	0
B. WARREN	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	137
BAHL	2ND ROUND		2018	YES	84
BAILEY	2ND ROUND		2013	NO	370
BAPTISTE	3RD ROUND		2013	NO	299
BARKOV	1ST ROUND	2	2013	YES	0
BARZAL	1ST ROUND	16	2015	YES	0
BASARABA	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	22
BASTIAN	2ND ROUND		2016	YES	188
BEAN	1ST ROUND	13	2016	NO	129
BEAUDIN	1ST ROUND	27	2018	NO	192
BEAUVILLIER	1ST ROUND	28	2015	YES	3
BELLOWS	1ST ROUND	19	2016	NO	189
BENGTSSON	2ND ROUND		2011	NO	53
BERNARD DOCKER	1ST ROUND	26	2018	N/A	101
BEUKEBOOM	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	0
BITTNER	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	190
BJORKSTRAND	3RD ROUND		2013	YES	88
BJORNFOT	1ST ROUND	22	2019	NO	109
BJUGSTAD	1ST ROUND	19	2010	YES	0
BLACKWOOD	2ND ROUND		2015	YES	90
BLUJUS	2ND ROUND		2012	NO	362
BORGSTROM	1ST ROUND	23	2016	NO	128
BRACCO	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	169
BRICKLEY	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	247
BYFIELD	1ST ROUND	2	2020	N/A	59
CAMMARATA	3RD ROUND		2013	NO	0
CAPOBIANCO	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	224
CHYCHRUN	1ST ROUND	16	2016	YES	0
CIRELLI	3RD ROUND		2015	YES	54
CLARK	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	20
COLANGELO	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	4
COLLINS	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	278
COMMESSO	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	38
COMPHER	2ND ROUND		2013	YES	41
CONNOLLY	1ST ROUND	6	2010	NO	174
CORNEL	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	277
COZENS	1ST ROUND	7	2019	N/A	0
CROTTY	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	219
CROUSE	1ST ROUND	11	2015	NO	58
D. SMITH	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	490
D. STROME	1ST ROUND	3	2015	NO	50
DACH	1ST ROUND	3	2019	N/A	3
DAHLIN	1ST ROUND	1	2018	N/A	0
DANO	1ST ROUND	27	2013	NO	199
DANSK	2ND ROUND		2012	NO	171
DAVIDSSON	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	0
DAWS	3RD ROUND		2020	YES	64
DEANGELO	1ST ROUND	19	2014	YES	123
DENISENKO	1ST ROUND	15	2018	NO	166
DERMOTT	2ND ROUND		2015	YES	88
DI GIUSEPPE	2ND ROUND		2012	YES	306
DINEEN	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	284
DROUIN	1ST ROUND	3	2013	NO	19
DRURY	2ND ROUND		2018	YES	105
DRYSDALE	1ST ROUND	6	2020	N/A	14
DUBOIS	1ST ROUND	3	2016	NO	0
DURZI	2ND ROUND		2018	YES	91
DVORAK	2ND ROUND		2014	YES	4
DZIERKARLS	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	4
E. LINDHOLM	1ST ROUND	5	2013	YES	6
EICHEL	1ST ROUND	2	2015	YES	0
EKBLAD	1ST ROUND	1	2014	NO	0
ELYNUIK	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	210
EMBERSON	3RD ROUND		2018	N/A	132
ENTWISTLE	3RD ROUND		2017	YES	80
ERNE	2ND ROUND		2013	YES	195
FABER	2ND ROUND		2020	YES	0
FAGEMO	2ND ROUND		2019	NO	201
FARINACI	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	71
FAULK	2ND ROUND		2010	YES	43
FENSORE	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	39
FILIPE	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	127
FISCHER	2ND ROUND		2015	YES	63
FITZGERALD	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	148
FOEGELE	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	73
G. CARLSSON	1ST ROUND	29	2015	NO	205
G. CLARKE	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	218
G. REINHART	1ST ROUND	4	2012	NO	278
GIGNAC	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	285
GILDON	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	101
GIRGENSONS	1ST ROUND	14	2012	NO	61
GRANS	2ND ROUND		2020	NO	171
GREIG	1ST ROUND	28	2020	YES	46
GRIGORENKO	1ST ROUND	12	2012	NO	52
GRIMALDI	2ND ROUND		2011	NO	433
GRUNDSTROM	2ND ROUND		2016	YES	99
GUDAS	3RD ROUND		2010	YES	206
GUDBRANSON	1ST ROUND	3	2010	NO	2
GUHLE	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	199
GUNLER	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	42
H. FLEURY	1ST ROUND	7	2014	NO	106
HAJEK	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	129
HANIFIN	1ST ROUND	5	2015	YES	0
HAWRYLUK	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	174
HAYTON	1ST ROUND	5	2018	N/A	35
HEATHERINGTON	2ND ROUND		2013	NO	478
HEPONIEMI	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	173
HILL	3RD ROUND		2015	YES	140
HIRVONEN	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	37
HISCHIER	1ST ROUND	1	2017	YES	0
HO SANG	1ST ROUND	28	2014	NO	225
HODGES	3RD ROUND		2012	NO	29
HOLTZ	1ST ROUND	7	2020	NO	76
HONKA	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	70
HOWDEN	1ST ROUND	27	2016	NO	5
HOWDEN	1ST ROUND	25	2010	NO	207
HUBERDEAU	1ST ROUND	3	2011	YES	0
HURLEY	2ND ROUND		2013	NO	0
HUSKO	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	113
I. MOORE	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	0
INGRAM	3RD ROUND		2016	YES	149
J. ANDERSON	3RD ROUND		2016	YES	179
J. BOQVIST	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	65
J. GAUTHIER	1ST ROUND	21	2016	NO	205
J. HUGHES	1ST ROUND	1	2019	YES	0
J. JOHANSSON	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	69
J. PERREAULT	1ST ROUND	27	2020	NO	174
J. SKINNER	1ST ROUND	7	2010	YES	0
JANOSIK	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	0
JARVENTIE	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	136
JARVIS	1ST ROUND	13	2020	YES	9
JD GREENWAY	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	37
JENIK	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	165
JENNER	2ND ROUND		2011	YES	10
JOHANSEN	1ST ROUND	4	2010	YES	40
KABANOV	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	48
KALIYEV	2ND ROUND		2019	YES	40
KARABACEK	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	24
KARLBERG	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	0
KATCHOUK	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	173
KEA	3RD ROUND		2012	NO	71
KELLER	1ST ROUND	7	2016	YES	0
KLEVEN	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	53
KOCHETKOV	2ND ROUND		2019	YES	44
KOEKKOEK	1ST ROUND	10	2012	NO	187
KOKKONEN	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	112
KOLESAR	3RD ROUND		2015	YES	151
KORPISALO	3RD ROUND		2012	YES	47
KORSHKOV	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	44
KUCHEROV	2ND ROUND		2011	YES	17
KUOKKANEN	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	164
L. FOUDY	1ST ROUND	18	2018	NO	69
L. MARTIN	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	40
L. SHAW	3RD ROUND		2011	YES	449
LAAKSONEN	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	138
LACOMBE	2ND ROUND		2019	YES	0
LAFERRIERE	3RD ROUND		2020	YES	4
LAFONTAINE	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	21
LAMMIKKKO	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	143
LEMIEUX	2ND ROUND		2014	YES	117
LEVI	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	25
LILJEGREN	1ST ROUND	17	2017	N/A	150
LOOKE	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	120
LOWE	3RD ROUND		2011	NO	478
LUOSTARAINEN	2ND ROUND		2017	YES	49
M. GEEKIE	3RD ROUND		2017	YES	130
M. SAMUELSSON	2ND ROUND		2018	YES	45
MACINNIS	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	299
MACLEOD	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	0
MARCHENKO	2ND ROUND		2018	YES	16
MARNER	1ST ROUND	4	2015	YES	0
MASCHERIN	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	142
MASIN	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	273
MATHESON	1ST ROUND	23	2012	YES	59
MATTHEOS	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	112
MATTHEWS	1ST ROUND	1	2016	YES	0
MAYFIELD	2ND ROUND		2011	YES	223
MCADAM	3RD ROUND		2013	NO	55
MCCABE	2ND ROUND		2012	YES	58
MCCOSHEN	2ND ROUND		2013	NO	242
MCFARLAND	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	199
MCGINN	2ND ROUND		2012	YES	134
MCLEOD	1ST ROUND	12	2016	NO	108
MDC	1ST ROUND	5	2014	NO	211
MERCER	1ST ROUND	18	2020	YES	0
MERILAINEN	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	28
MERKLEY	1ST ROUND	30	2015	NO	201
MERZLIKINS	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	2
MILANO	1ST ROUND	14	2014	NO	171
MIRAGEAS	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	0
MISYUL	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	44
MITTELSTADT	1ST ROUND	8	2017	N/A	36
MONTEMBAULT	3RD ROUND		2015	YES	104
MUKHAMADULLIN	1ST ROUND	20	2020	N/A	67
N. ROBERTSON	2ND ROUND		2019	N/A	60
NAMESTNIKOV	1ST ROUND	27	2011	YES	134
NASSEN	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	0
NECAS	1ST ROUND	12	2017	YES	64
NEDELJKOVIC	2ND ROUND		2014	YES	181
NELSON	1ST ROUND	30	2010	YES	71
NIEDEREITER	1ST ROUND	5	2010	NO	80
NIELSEN	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	258
NIEMELA	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	74
NIKISHIN	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	0
NOEL	2ND ROUND		2018	NO	72
NORDGREN	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	0
OKHOTYUK	2ND ROUND		2019	NO	116
P. JOSEPH	1ST ROUND	23	2017	NO	138
P. STRAKA	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	230
PARIK	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	5
PEDAN	3RD ROUND		2011	NO	233
PEEKE	2ND ROUND		2016	YES	36
PELECH	3RD ROUND		2012	YES	105
PERLINI	1ST ROUND	12	2014	NO	98
PESCE	3RD ROUND		2013	YES	7
PETERKA	2ND ROUND		2020	YES	70
PETROVIC	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	427
PINTO	2ND ROUND		2019	YES	0
POINT	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	9
POKKA	2ND ROUND		2012	NO	289
PONOMAREV	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	120
PORTILLO	2ND ROUND		2019	N/A	39
PU	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	79
PUISTOLA	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	0
PULOCK	1ST ROUND	15	2013	YES	163
QUINN	1ST ROUND	8	2020	N/A	60
R. JOHNSON	1ST ROUND	31	2019	N/A	27
R. MURPHY	1ST ROUND	12	2011	NO	285
R. MURRAY1ST ROUND	2	2012	NO	1
R. STROME	1ST ROUND	5	2011	NO	55
R. SUZUKI	1ST ROUND	28	2019	NO	161
RACINE	3RD ROUND		2011	NO	275
RADDYSH	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	159
RASANEN	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	5
RAU	3RD ROUND		2011	NO	478
REES	2ND ROUND		2019	NO	206
REICHEL	1ST ROUND	17	2020	N/A	121
RISTOLAINEN	1ST ROUND	8	2013	YES	34
RYCHEL	1ST ROUND	19	2013	NO	295
S. REINHART	1ST ROUND	2	2014	YES	3
SALO	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	146
SANDERSON	1ST ROUND	5	2020	N/A	0
SANDIN	1ST ROUND	29	2018	YES	66
SCHEMITSCH	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	318
SCHNARR	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	184
SDA	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	107
SIEBENALER	3RD ROUND		2014	NO	108
SIMONTAIVAL	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	0
SLAGGERT	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	0
SMITH	1ST ROUND	17	2018	NO	102
SODERSTROM	1ST ROUND	11	2019	NO	170
SOGAARD	2ND ROUND		2019	N/A	96
SOKOLOV	2ND ROUND		2020	NO	240
SOROKIN	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	0
SPEERS	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	203
SPENCER	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	54
STENLUND	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	160
STEPHENS	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	252
STOTTS	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	0
STUTZLE	1ST ROUND	3	2020	N/A	0
SUNDSTROM	2ND ROUND		2011	NO	171
T. RICHARD	3RD ROUND		2012	NO	261
TARASOV	3RD ROUND		2017	YES	32
TEXIER	2ND ROUND		2017	YES	7
THOMSON	1ST ROUND	19	2019	NO	202
TIPPETT	1ST ROUND	10	2017	NO	63
TRACEY	1ST ROUND	29	2019	NO	184
TROCHECK	3RD ROUND		2011	YES	78
TURCOTTE	1ST ROUND	5	2019	NO	126
TYCHONICK	2ND ROUND		2018	NO	4
TYNAN	3RD ROUND		2011	NO	641
UPL	2ND ROUND		2017	YES	69
V. RASK	2ND ROUND		2011	YES	86
VALIEV	3RD ROUND		2014	NO	260
VANDE SOMPEL	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	298
VASILEVSKIY	1ST ROUND	19	2012	YES	37
VUKOJEVIC	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	166
W. NYLANDER	1ST ROUND	8	2014	YES	75
WALSH	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	234
WENNBERG	1ST ROUND	14	2013	YES	6
WERENSKI	1ST ROUND	8	2015	YES	7
WESTERLUND	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	0
WISE	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	54
WOLL	3RD ROUND		2016	YES	84
YAN	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	205
ZACHA	1ST ROUND	6	2015	NO	7
ZADOROV	1ST ROUND	16	2013	YES	52
ZEGRAS	1ST ROUND	9	2019	N/A	17
ZETTERLUND	3RD ROUND		2017	YES	138

It does seem that AHL time does help a tiny bit for 2nd round picks to get to 300+ NHL games played (22% vs 19%) but it becomes even more important for 3rd round picks that do get to 100+ NHL games played (21% vs 8%).

49% of the players that were success spent 50+ or more games in the AHL. On the other hand, 76% of the ‘busts’ were players that also spent 50+ or more games in the AHL.

	YES			YES			YES
1st round	35		2nd round	35		3rd round	26		Total	96
0-50	26	74%	0-50	16	46%	0-50	7	27%
51-100	6	17%	51-100	11	31%	51-100	8	31%	Total	25
100+	3	9%	100+	8	23%	100+	11	42%	Total	22
									Total	47

	NO			NO			NO
1st round	47		2nd round	51		3rd round	65		Total	163
0-50	7	15%	0-50	9	18%	0-50	23	35%
51-100	10	21%	51-100	5	10%	51-100	6	9%	Total	21
100+	30	64%	100+	37	73%	100+	36	55%	Total	103
									Total	124

One aspect that can’t be overlooked for some of the 1st rounders if how much some of them were rushed by the team that drafted them in order to obtain results faster. For some, draft rank probably dictated it but I’m sure some players like R. Murray, Gudbranson, Zacha, Howden, Boqvist would have benefitted from spending more than a handful of games (or non in certain cases) in the AHL and would have probably helped their club more than they ended up doing (there are 11 first round picks that spent 55 or less AHL games and ended up as disappointments).

On the other hand, what’s surprising is how many 2nd rounders blew expectations out of the water and spent practically no time in the NHL. The likes of Jenner, Aho, Faber, Dvorak, Kucherov come to mind (there are 16 players that fit that description as part of the 259 picks part of this sample).

Conclusion: Seems like AHL seems to help a little in terms of producing more NHLers, for some players it seems like spending time to work on their game is what is putting them over the hump to maximize their potential but not to the extent that some are making out to be. To the extent where it’s questionable to preach the old DET way of doing things and letting your prospects overmarinate if it means you’re not taking advantage of their cheap salaries.

Le Barron de HF · Aug 27, 2024

Sorry for the wall of text, figured I'd split it into different posts to at least make it easier to read, remember this is not a thesis I'm writing but a guy who was curious and had too much time on his hands at times.

Does team success matter in the AHL?

Disclaimer: Some of these numbers are skewed due to double dipping for players that were part of both sides (no playoffs vs playoffs) depending on how long they played in the AHL.

The sample was pretty dead even with 50 of the teams making the playoffs and 49 that they didn’t. For the seasons that were impacted by COVID-19 and thus resulted with no playoffs happening for the most part, I went with whether or not those teams finished in the top 4 of their divisions (this approach was taken for the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons).

For the portion of this exercise, I did modify my approach a little. I went with noteworthy NHLers that the average joe may know about instead of the aforementioned 150+ games played threshold. On average the teams that made the playoffs featured 2.32 players that went on to become decent or better NHLers (116 NHLers in total) while the teams that missed the playoffs featured on average 2 players who went to be NHLers (98 in total).

It was a bit of mixed bag though. There were 6 teams in that sample that featured no future NHLers and missed the playoffs. But there were also 5 instances of teams that missed the playoffs but featured 4 future NHLers. On the other hand, there 4 teams that features 0 NHLers that made the playoffs. There were also 5 instances of teams featuring 5 future NHLers while making the playoffs.

When looking at the extremes and paying attention to Calder Cup champions and finalists, the numbers are even more eye popping. There were 22 teams in that sample (the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 season were excluded here). The champions featured on average 4.36 noteworthy NHLers (excluding depth players) and the finalists featured 3.81 noteworthy NHLers. This adds up to an average of 3.5 future NHLers when looking at the teams who were part of the Calder Cup finalists.

Full list for AHL champions/finalists:

YEAR	TEAM	NAME	CHAMPION/FINALIST	Role
2009-2010	Hershey Bears	Neuvirth	Champion	Back-up goaltender
2009-2010	Hershey Bears	Beagle	Champion	Bottom 6 forward
2009-2010	Texas Stars	Sceviour	Finalist	Bottom 6 forward
2009-2010	Texas Stars	Ja. Benn	Finalist	Star forward
2009-2010	Hershey Bears	M. Perreault	Champion	Middle 6 forward
2009-2010	Hershey Bears	Alzner	Champion	Top 4D
2009-2010	Hershey Bears	Carlson	Champion	Top pair defenseman
2010-2011	Binghampton Senators	Lehner	Champion	1A goaltender
2010-2011	Binghampton Senators	Condra	Champion	4th line
2010-2011	Binghampton Senators	Z. Smith	Champion	Bottom 6 forward
2010-2011	Binghampton Senators	Greening	Champion	Bottom 6 forward
2010-2011	Binghampton Senators	Borowiecki	Champion	Bottom pair defenseman
2010-2011	Houston Aeros	Falk	Finalist	Depth defenseman
2010-2011	Houston Aeros	Prosser	Finalist	Depth defenseman
2010-2011	Binghampton Senators	Wiercioch	Champion	Depth defenseman
2010-2011	Binghampton Senators	Gryba	Champion	Depth defenseman
2010-2011	Houston Aeros	Spurgeon	Finalist	Star defenseman
2010-2011	Houston Aeros	Scandella	Finalist	Top 4D
2010-2011	Binghampton Senators	Hoffman	Champion	Top 6 forward
2011-2012	Norfolk Admirals	Gudas	Champion	Bottom pair defenseman
2011-2012	Toronto Marlies	Holzer	Finalist	Depth defenseman
2011-2012	Toronto Marlies	Colborne	Finalist	Depth forward
2011-2012	Norfolk Admirals	Barberio	Champion	Depth defenseman
2011-2012	Toronto Marlies	Scrivens	Finalist	Depth goaltender
2011-2012	Norfolk Admirals	Tokarksi	Champion	Depth goaltender
2011-2012	Toronto Marlies	Gardiner	Finalist	Top 4D
2011-2012	Norfolk Admirals	Panik	Champion	Middle 6 forward
2011-2012	Norfolk Admirals	Palat	Champion	Top 6 forward
2011-2012	Norfolk Admirals	Killorn	Champion	Top 6 forward
2011-2012	Toronto Marlies	Kadri	Finalist	Top 6 forward
2011-2012	Norfolk Admirals	T. Johnson	Champion	Top 6 forward
2012-2013	Grand Rapids Griffins	Mrazek	Champion	1B goaltender
2012-2013	Grand Rapids Griffins	Glendening	Champion	Bottom 6 forward
2012-2013	Grand Rapids Griffins	Sheahan	Champion	Bottom 6 forward
2012-2013	Syracuse Crunch	Sustr	Finalist	Depth defenseman
2012-2013	Syracuse Crunch	JT Brown	Finalist	Depth forward
2012-2013	Syracuse Crunch	Namestnikov	Finalist	Middle 6 forward
2012-2013	Grand Rapids Griffins	Jurco	Champion	Depth forward
2012-2013	Grand Rapids Griffins	J. Andersson	Champion	Depth forward
2012-2013	Syracuse Crunch	Connolly	Finalist	Middle 6 forward
2012-2013	Grand Rapids Griffins	Nyquist	Champion	Top 6 forward
2012-2013	Grand Rapids Griffins	Tatar	Champion	Top 6 forward
2012-2013	Syracuse Crunch	T. Johnson	Finalist
2012-2013	Syracuse Crunch	Barberio	Finalist
2012-2013	Syracuse Crunch	Palat	Finalist
2012-2013	Syracuse Crunch	Panik	Finalist
2012-2013	Syracuse Crunch	Gudas	Finalist
2013-2014	Texas Stars	Faksa	Champion	Bottom 6 forward
2013-2014	Texas Stars	Nemeth	Champion	Depth defenseman
2013-2014	St. John's IceCaps	Hutchinson	Finalist	Depth goaltender
2013-2014	Texas Stars	B. Ritchie	Champion	Depth forward
2013-2014	St. John's IceCaps	Lowry	Finalist	Middle 6 forward
2013-2014	Texas Stars	Oleksiak	Champion	Top 4D
2013-2014	St. John's IceCaps	Chiarot	Finalist	Top 4D
2013-2014	St. John's IceCaps	Morrissey	Finalist	Top pair defenseman
2014-2015	Manchester Monarchs	Dowd	Champion	Bottom 6 forward
2014-2015	Manchester Monarchs	Forbort	Champion	Bottom pair defenseman
2014-2015	Manchester Monarchs	C. Miller	Champion	Bottom pair defenseman
2014-2015	Utica Comets	A. Biega	Finalist	Depth defenseman
2014-2015	Utica Comets	B. Gaunce	Finalist	Depth forward
2014-2015	Utica Comets	Baertschi	Finalist	Middle 6 forward
2014-2015	Manchester Monarchs	N. Shore	Champion	Depth forward
2014-2015	Manchester Monarchs	Weal	Champion	Depth forward
2014-2015	Utica Comets	Markstrom	Finalist	Star goaltender
2014-2015	Manchester Monarchs	Kempe	Champion	Top line forward
2015-2016	Lake Erie Monsters	A. Forsberg	Champion	Back-up goaltender
2015-2016	Lake Erie Monsters	Korpisalo	Champion	Back-up goaltender
2015-2016	Hershey Bears	L. O'Brien	Finalist	4th line
2015-2016	Hershey Bears	T. Boyd	Finalist	Bottom 6 forward
2015-2016	Hershey Bears	Djoos	Finalist	Depth defenseman
2015-2016	Hershey Bears	N. Walker	Finalist	Depth forward
2015-2016	Lake Erie Monsters	Kukan	Champion	Depth defenseman
2015-2016	Hershey Bears	Vrana	Finalist	Middle 6 forward
2015-2016	Lake Erie Monsters	Sedlak	Champion	Depth forward
2015-2016	Lake Erie Monsters	M. Chaput	Champion	Depth forward
2015-2016	Hershey Bears	Stephenson	Finalist	Top 6 forward
2015-2016	Lake Erie Monsters	Bjorkstrand	Champion	Top 6 forward
2015-2016	Lake Erie Monsters	Werenski	Champion	Top pair defenseman
2016-2017	Grand Rapids Griffins	Nosek	Champion	4th line
2016-2017	Syracuse Crunch	Erne	Finalist	Depth forward
2016-2017	Grand Rapids Griffins	E. Svechnikov	Champion	Depth forward
2016-2017	Grand Rapids Griffins	Bertuzzi	Champion	Top 6 forward
2016-2017	Syracuse Crunch	Gourde	Finalist	Top 6 forward
2017-2018	Toronto Marlies	Grundstrom	Champion	4th line
2017-2018	Toronto Marlies	Liljegren	Champion	Bottom pair defenseman
2017-2018	Toronto Marlies	Holl	Champion	Bottom pair defenseman
2017-2018	Toronto Marlies	Dermott	Champion	Depth defenseman
2017-2018	Toronto Marlies	F. Gauthier	Champion	Depth forward
2017-2018	Texas Stars	Dickinson	Finalist	Middle 6 forward
2017-2018	Texas Stars	Gurianov	Finalist	Middle 6 forward
2017-2018	Toronto Marlies	Engvall	Champion	Middle 6 forward
2017-2018	Toronto Marlies	Johnsson	Champion	Middle 6 forward
2017-2018	Toronto Marlies	Marchment	Champion	Top 6 forward
2017-2018	Toronto Marlies	T. Moore	Champion	Top 6 forward
2017-2018	Texas Stars	Hintz	Finalist	Top line forward
2018-2019	Charlotte Checkers	Nedeljkovic	Champion	Back-up goaltender
2018-2019	Chicago Wolves	Kolesar	Finalist	4th line
2018-2019	Charlotte Checkers	M. Geekie	Champion	Bottom 6 forward
2018-2019	Chicago Wolves	Whitecloud	Finalist	Bottom pair defenseman
2018-2019	Chicago Wolves	Hague	Finalist	Bottom pair defenseman
2018-2019	Charlotte Checkers	Bean	Champion	Bottom pair defenseman
2018-2019	Charlotte Checkers	H. Fleury	Champion	Depth defenseman
2018-2019	Charlotte Checkers	J. Gauthier	Champion	Depth forward
2018-2019	Chicago Wolves	C. Glass	Finalist	Middle 6 forward
2018-2019	Charlotte Checkers	Lorentz	Champion	Depth forward
2018-2019	Charlotte Checkers	N. Roy	Champion	Middle 6 forward
2018-2019	Charlotte Checkers	Necas	Champion	Top 6 forward
2021-2022	Springfield Thunderbirds	Hofer	Finalist	1B goaltender
2021-2022	Springfield Thunderbirds	C. Lindgren	Finalist	1B goaltender
2021-2022	Chicago Wolves	Drury	Champion	Bottom 6 forward
2021-2022	Chicago Wolves	Noesen	Champion	Bottom 6 forward
2021-2022	Springfield Thunderbirds	Kostin	Finalist	Bottom 6 forward
2021-2022	Springfield Thunderbirds	Joshua	Finalist	Bottom 6 forward
2021-2022	Chicago Wolves	Chatfield	Champion	Bottom pair defenseman

	Champion	Finalist	Total
4th Line	3	2	5
Bottom 6 forward	10	4	14
1A goaltender	1	2	3
1B Goaltender	1		1
Back-up goaltender	4		4
Bottom pair defenseman	8	2	10
Depth defenseman	7	6	13
Depth forward	11	5	16
Depth goaltender	1	2	3
Middle 6 forward	5	8	13
Top 4D	2	3	5
Top 6 forward	11	3	14
Top line forward	1	1	2
Top pair defenseman	2	1	3
Star defenseman	1	1
Star forward	1	1
Star goaltender	1	1
Total	67	42	109

Part three with the analysis for the 13 teams and whether AHL helped or not will come tomorrow.

Shutdown · Aug 27, 2024

good lord dude - what do you do for a living?

great post! gonna need some time to dig through it all

Chili · Aug 27, 2024

Well done! I have done small analysis before on Stanley Cup winners and their AHL experience/development background. Interesting topic.

Tyson · Aug 27, 2024

Le Barron de HF said:
Sorry for the wall of text, figured I'd split it into different posts to at least make it easier to read, remember this is not a thesis I'm writing but a guy who was curious and had too much time on his hands at times.

Does team success matter in the AHL?

Disclaimer: Some of these numbers are skewed due to double dipping for players that were part of both sides (no playoffs vs playoffs) depending on how long they played in the AHL.

The sample was pretty dead even with 50 of the teams making the playoffs and 49 that they didn’t. For the seasons that were impacted by COVID-19 and thus resulted with no playoffs happening for the most part, I went with whether or not those teams finished in the top 4 of their divisions (this approach was taken for the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons).

For the portion of this exercise, I did modify my approach a little. I went with noteworthy NHLers that the average joe may know about instead of the aforementioned 150+ games played threshold. On average the teams that made the playoffs featured 2.32 players that went on to become decent or better NHLers (116 NHLers in total) while the teams that missed the playoffs featured on average 2 players who went to be NHLers (98 in total).

It was a bit of mixed bag though. There were 6 teams in that sample that featured no future NHLers and missed the playoffs. But there were also 5 instances of teams that missed the playoffs but featured 4 future NHLers. On the other hand, there 4 teams that features 0 NHLers that made the playoffs. There were also 5 instances of teams featuring 5 future NHLers while making the playoffs.

When looking at the extremes and paying attention to Calder Cup champions and finalists, the numbers are even more eye popping. There were 22 teams in that sample (the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 season were excluded here). The champions featured on average 4.36 noteworthy NHLers (excluding depth players) and the finalists featured 3.81 noteworthy NHLers. This adds up to an average of 3.5 future NHLers when looking at the teams who were part of the Calder Cup finalists.

Full list for AHL champions/finalists:

YEAR TEAM NAME CHAMPION/FINALIST Role
2009-2010 Hershey Bears Neuvirth Champion Back-up goaltender
2009-2010 Hershey Bears Beagle Champion Bottom 6 forward
2009-2010 Texas Stars Sceviour Finalist Bottom 6 forward
2009-2010 Texas Stars Ja. Benn Finalist Star forward
2009-2010 Hershey Bears M. Perreault Champion Middle 6 forward
2009-2010 Hershey Bears Alzner Champion Top 4D
2009-2010 Hershey Bears Carlson Champion Top pair defenseman
2010-2011 Binghampton Senators Lehner Champion 1A goaltender
2010-2011 Binghampton Senators Condra Champion 4th line
2010-2011 Binghampton Senators Z. Smith Champion Bottom 6 forward
2010-2011 Binghampton Senators Greening Champion Bottom 6 forward
2010-2011 Binghampton Senators Borowiecki Champion Bottom pair defenseman
2010-2011 Houston Aeros Falk Finalist Depth defenseman
2010-2011 Houston Aeros Prosser Finalist Depth defenseman
2010-2011 Binghampton Senators Wiercioch Champion Depth defenseman
2010-2011 Binghampton Senators Gryba Champion Depth defenseman
2010-2011 Houston Aeros Spurgeon Finalist Star defenseman
2010-2011 Houston Aeros Scandella Finalist Top 4D
2010-2011 Binghampton Senators Hoffman Champion Top 6 forward
2011-2012 Norfolk Admirals Gudas Champion Bottom pair defenseman
2011-2012 Toronto Marlies Holzer Finalist Depth defenseman
2011-2012 Toronto Marlies Colborne Finalist Depth forward
2011-2012 Norfolk Admirals Barberio Champion Depth defenseman
2011-2012 Toronto Marlies Scrivens Finalist Depth goaltender
2011-2012 Norfolk Admirals Tokarksi Champion Depth goaltender
2011-2012 Toronto Marlies Gardiner Finalist Top 4D
2011-2012 Norfolk Admirals Panik Champion Middle 6 forward
2011-2012 Norfolk Admirals Palat Champion Top 6 forward
2011-2012 Norfolk Admirals Killorn Champion Top 6 forward
2011-2012 Toronto Marlies Kadri Finalist Top 6 forward
2011-2012 Norfolk Admirals T. Johnson Champion Top 6 forward
2012-2013 Grand Rapids Griffins Mrazek Champion 1B goaltender
2012-2013 Grand Rapids Griffins Glendening Champion Bottom 6 forward
2012-2013 Grand Rapids Griffins Sheahan Champion Bottom 6 forward
2012-2013 Syracuse Crunch Sustr Finalist Depth defenseman
2012-2013 Syracuse Crunch JT Brown Finalist Depth forward
2012-2013 Syracuse Crunch Namestnikov Finalist Middle 6 forward
2012-2013 Grand Rapids Griffins Jurco Champion Depth forward
2012-2013 Grand Rapids Griffins J. Andersson Champion Depth forward
2012-2013 Syracuse Crunch Connolly Finalist Middle 6 forward
2012-2013 Grand Rapids Griffins Nyquist Champion Top 6 forward
2012-2013 Grand Rapids Griffins Tatar Champion Top 6 forward
2012-2013 Syracuse Crunch T. Johnson Finalist
2012-2013 Syracuse Crunch Barberio Finalist
2012-2013 Syracuse Crunch Palat Finalist
2012-2013 Syracuse Crunch Panik Finalist
2012-2013 Syracuse Crunch Gudas Finalist
2013-2014 Texas Stars Faksa Champion Bottom 6 forward
2013-2014 Texas Stars Nemeth Champion Depth defenseman
2013-2014 St. John's IceCaps Hutchinson Finalist Depth goaltender
2013-2014 Texas Stars B. Ritchie Champion Depth forward
2013-2014 St. John's IceCaps Lowry Finalist Middle 6 forward
2013-2014 Texas Stars Oleksiak Champion Top 4D
2013-2014 St. John's IceCaps Chiarot Finalist Top 4D
2013-2014 St. John's IceCaps Morrissey Finalist Top pair defenseman
2014-2015 Manchester Monarchs Dowd Champion Bottom 6 forward
2014-2015 Manchester Monarchs Forbort Champion Bottom pair defenseman
2014-2015 Manchester Monarchs C. Miller Champion Bottom pair defenseman
2014-2015 Utica Comets A. Biega Finalist Depth defenseman
2014-2015 Utica Comets B. Gaunce Finalist Depth forward
2014-2015 Utica Comets Baertschi Finalist Middle 6 forward
2014-2015 Manchester Monarchs N. Shore Champion Depth forward
2014-2015 Manchester Monarchs Weal Champion Depth forward
2014-2015 Utica Comets Markstrom Finalist Star goaltender
2014-2015 Manchester Monarchs Kempe Champion Top line forward
2015-2016 Lake Erie Monsters A. Forsberg Champion Back-up goaltender
2015-2016 Lake Erie Monsters Korpisalo Champion Back-up goaltender
2015-2016 Hershey Bears L. O'Brien Finalist 4th line
2015-2016 Hershey Bears T. Boyd Finalist Bottom 6 forward
2015-2016 Hershey Bears Djoos Finalist Depth defenseman
2015-2016 Hershey Bears N. Walker Finalist Depth forward
2015-2016 Lake Erie Monsters Kukan Champion Depth defenseman
2015-2016 Hershey Bears Vrana Finalist Middle 6 forward
2015-2016 Lake Erie Monsters Sedlak Champion Depth forward
2015-2016 Lake Erie Monsters M. Chaput Champion Depth forward
2015-2016 Hershey Bears Stephenson Finalist Top 6 forward
2015-2016 Lake Erie Monsters Bjorkstrand Champion Top 6 forward
2015-2016 Lake Erie Monsters Werenski Champion Top pair defenseman
2016-2017 Grand Rapids Griffins Nosek Champion 4th line
2016-2017 Syracuse Crunch Erne Finalist Depth forward
2016-2017 Grand Rapids Griffins E. Svechnikov Champion Depth forward
2016-2017 Grand Rapids Griffins Bertuzzi Champion Top 6 forward
2016-2017 Syracuse Crunch Gourde Finalist Top 6 forward
2017-2018 Toronto Marlies Grundstrom Champion 4th line
2017-2018 Toronto Marlies Liljegren Champion Bottom pair defenseman
2017-2018 Toronto Marlies Holl Champion Bottom pair defenseman
2017-2018 Toronto Marlies Dermott Champion Depth defenseman
2017-2018 Toronto Marlies F. Gauthier Champion Depth forward
2017-2018 Texas Stars Dickinson Finalist Middle 6 forward
2017-2018 Texas Stars Gurianov Finalist Middle 6 forward
2017-2018 Toronto Marlies Engvall Champion Middle 6 forward
2017-2018 Toronto Marlies Johnsson Champion Middle 6 forward
2017-2018 Toronto Marlies Marchment Champion Top 6 forward
2017-2018 Toronto Marlies T. Moore Champion Top 6 forward
2017-2018 Texas Stars Hintz Finalist Top line forward
2018-2019 Charlotte Checkers Nedeljkovic Champion Back-up goaltender
2018-2019 Chicago Wolves Kolesar Finalist 4th line
2018-2019 Charlotte Checkers M. Geekie Champion Bottom 6 forward
2018-2019 Chicago Wolves Whitecloud Finalist Bottom pair defenseman
2018-2019 Chicago Wolves Hague Finalist Bottom pair defenseman
2018-2019 Charlotte Checkers Bean Champion Bottom pair defenseman
2018-2019 Charlotte Checkers H. Fleury Champion Depth defenseman
2018-2019 Charlotte Checkers J. Gauthier Champion Depth forward
2018-2019 Chicago Wolves C. Glass Finalist Middle 6 forward
2018-2019 Charlotte Checkers Lorentz Champion Depth forward
2018-2019 Charlotte Checkers N. Roy Champion Middle 6 forward
2018-2019 Charlotte Checkers Necas Champion Top 6 forward
2021-2022 Springfield Thunderbirds Hofer Finalist 1B goaltender
2021-2022 Springfield Thunderbirds C. Lindgren Finalist 1B goaltender
2021-2022 Chicago Wolves Drury Champion Bottom 6 forward
2021-2022 Chicago Wolves Noesen Champion Bottom 6 forward
2021-2022 Springfield Thunderbirds Kostin Finalist Bottom 6 forward
2021-2022 Springfield Thunderbirds Joshua Finalist Bottom 6 forward
2021-2022 Chicago Wolves Chatfield Champion Bottom pair defenseman

Champion Finalist Total
4th Line
3
2
5
Bottom 6 forward
10
4
14
1A goaltender
1
2
3
1B Goaltender
1
1
Back-up goaltender
4
4
Bottom pair defenseman
8
2
10
Depth defenseman
7
6
13
Depth forward
11
5
16
Depth goaltender
1
2
3
Middle 6 forward
5
8
13
Top 4D
2
3
5
Top 6 forward
11
3
14
Top line forward
1
1
2
Top pair defenseman
2
1
3
Star defenseman
1
1
Star forward
1
1
Star goaltender
1
1
Total
67
42
109

Part three with the analysis for the 13 teams and whether AHL helped or not will come tomorrow.

Damn that's alot to take in.

Habs13 · Aug 27, 2024

Holy shit! No where NEAR done reading this - had to stop to tell how intense this is! Wow! Great work!

ThaDevilGirl · Aug 27, 2024

No PowerBI presentation? I am disappoint.

That is a lot to take in, wow. I admire your courage to dig through the data!

badfish · Aug 28, 2024

To the others reading, I don't think you need to worry about reading the tables. The text is where the real value lies.

Looking forward to reading part 3!

Shred · Aug 28, 2024

I am also quite curious and find myself into similar rabbit holes every once in a while so I can definitely relate to this and also thank you for sharing your methodology and results

Walrus26 · Aug 28, 2024

So, is the Exec Summary something like:

"The AHL seems to add developmental value to players with middling talent levels, objectively contributing to 3rd / 4th line forward and bottom pairing D NHL career prospects for them"?

Good work

Scintillating10 · Aug 28, 2024

You did a lot of work on this subject

Rob Sense · Aug 28, 2024

Lot of work...This is almost PhD thesis level in sportology!

barbu · Aug 28, 2024

I remember a post on the same topic about a dozen years ago that came to the same conclusions; the AHL isn't much of a development league as we'd like to think. I can't find it though.

waitin425 · Aug 28, 2024

Thank you for doing this and sharing it with all of us. Very interesting analysis.

Le Barron de HF · Aug 28, 2024

barbu said:
I remember a post on the same topic about a dozen years ago that came to the same conclusions; the AHL isn't much of a development league as we'd like to think. I can't find it though.

Interesting if so given that the league has gotten more skillful over the years and the need for teams to get cheap guys on the roster.

Le Barron de HF · Aug 28, 2024

The successes

TORONTO (2013-2021)

It may seem funny that I consider TOR a success despite their lack of playoff success but as far as rebuilds are concerned, it’s hard to ask for more than that. From 2017-18 to the 2020-21 they had the 6th most points in the league. They built a good core but the problem seems to be that they never improved their defensive core and lacked secondary scoring, let’s see if the Marlies came up short in providing them with talent.

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
LEIVO	227	265	93	Depth forward	3
CARRICK	471	240	53	4th line	5
BROWN	110	519	228	Middle 6 forward	6
NYLANDER	75	603	528	Star forward	1
MCKEGG	454	233	39	Depth forward	3
LEIPSIC	188	187	59	Depth forward	3
HYMAN	59	580	399	Top line forward	5
KAPANEN	119	460	208	Middle 6 forward	1
HOLL	194	323	87	Bottom pair defenseman	2
GAUTHIER	228	178	31	Depth forward	1
JOHNSSON	165	259	116	Middle 6 forward	7
MOORE	173	345	175	Top 6 forward	Undrafted
DERMOTT	88	329	62	Depth defenseman	2
MARCHMENT	130	240	142	Top 6 forward	Undrafted
LILJEGREN	150	196	65	Bottom pair defenseman	1
ENGVALL	94	318	120	Middle 6 forward	7
GRUNDSTROM	99	236	67	4th line	2
SANDIN	66	227	86	Top 4D	1
CARCONE	398	104	38	Middle 6 forward	Undrafted
WOLL	84	36	21	1B Goaltender	3
BRAZEAU	189	19	7	4th line	Undrafted
MCMANN	118	66	25	4th line	Undrafted

So let’s start with the obvious: The Leafs did a great job at developing guys that eventually became offensive contributors up front, the problem is that they gave up on those guys too early or traded them for potentially the wrong targets. Names like Moore, Marchment and C. Brown come to mind. The Marlies contributed 2.75 NHLers over the sample of 8 seasons. A lot of their players produced were guys taken later in the draft which speaks to how much the coaching staff helped those players round out their game. That being said, it is obvious that the Leafs management struggled to provide their NHL team with some homegrown talent on defense.

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
W. NYLANDER	1ST ROUND	8	2014	YES	75
VALIEV	3RD ROUND		2014	NO	260
MARNER	1ST ROUND	4	2015	YES	0
DERMOTT	2ND ROUND		2015	YES	88
BRACCO	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	169
NIELSEN	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	258
DZIERKARLS	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	4
MATTHEWS	1ST ROUND	1	2016	YES	0
KORSHKOV	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	44
GRUNDSTROM	2ND ROUND		2016	YES	99
WOLL	3RD ROUND		2016	YES	84
JD GREENWAY	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	37
LILJEGREN	1ST ROUND	17	2017	N/A	150
RASANEN	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	5
SANDIN	1ST ROUND	29	2018	YES	66
DURZI	2ND ROUND		2018	YES	91
SDA	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	107
STOTTS	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	0
N. ROBERTSON	2ND ROUND		2019	N/A	60
KOKKONEN	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	112
AMIROV	1ST ROUND	15	2020	N/A	n/a
HIRVONEN	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	37
NIEMELA	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	74

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st	4		2	6	100%
2nd	3	3	2	8	50%
3rd	1	7	1	9	12,5%
				23

It is worth noting that the Leafs did invest two 1st rounders on Liljegren (17th overall) and Sandin (29th overall) but rarely used some of their 2nd rounders on D prospects, opting instead to draft forwards. It’s hard to criticize the selections if you analyze the other D drafted in that range. That being said, perhaps going for Guhle instead of another forward in 2020 would have been a wise decision.

Was the AHL to blame for note making the Leafs more competitive?

I would say no. The problems were elsewhere (Foligno, Tavares, not getting a reliable goaltender after Andersen, not improving the defense).

Extra info:
The prospects column is the amount of prospects that finished in the top 5 for scoring to show whether a HC had a tendancy to not play the kids. I considering a player in their first three pro years to be a prospect. For NHLers, I went with the noteworthy criteria mentioned in the 2nd part (ones that average joe would know about).

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2013-2014	YES	3	SPOTT	0
2014-2015	YES	3	DINEEN	2
2015-2016	YES	3	KEEFE	4
2016-2017	YES	5	KEEFE	3
2017-2018	CHAMPION	2	KEEFE	4
2018-2019	YES	3	KEEFE	5
2019-2020	NO	2	MOORE	4
2020-2021	NO	1	MOORE	3
	75%

I’d like to give some praise for the work Keefe did with the Leafs here, he won a Calder Cup and developed a fair share of NHL talent.

CAROLINA (2009-2021)

Carolina’s situation is a bit of a different one, in the first half, I would have considered them as a flop for their rebuild but the changes in regime have definitely helped. Let’s see if it’s as a result of players coming through the AHL.

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
TERRY	815	152	38	Depth forward	5
MCBAIN	210	348	110	Depth defenseman	2
BOWMAN	264	179	33	Depth forward	3
HARRISON	277	372	75	Depth defenseman	3
DALPE	565	168	32	Depth forward	2
NASH	312	628	176	Bottom six forward	1
FAULK	43	902	426	Top pair defenseman	2
RASK	86	506	223	Middle 6 forward	2
MURPHY	285	175	43	Depth defenseman	1
DI GIUSEPPE	306	282	75	Depth forward	2
MCGINN	134	508	150	Bottom 6 forward	2
RYAN	79	570	203	Middle 6 forward	Undrafted
WALLMARK	112	187	59	Depth forward	4
FLEURY	106	268	37	Depth defenseman	1
NEDELKOVIC	181	141	60	1B goaltender	2
FOEGELE	73	431	163	Middle 6 forward	3
ROY	168	298	135	Middle 6 forward	4
GAUTHIER	205	180	41	Depth forward	1
GEEKIE	130	256	102	Bottom 6 forward	3
NECAS	64	362	243	Top 6 forward	1
BEAN	129	197	56	Bottom pair defenseman	1
LORENTZ	93	230	43	Depth forward	7
FORSLING	110	397	161	Top pair defenseman	5
FORSBERG	186	160	63	Back up goaltender	7

One thing that instantly hits you is that from 2009 until 2015, the AHL team averaged 1 or less future NHLer on the roster which may explain why the Hurricanes were mediocre during that stretch. There two very good players that came through the AHL for the Hurricanes during this sample and both of them spent little time in the AHL before being called up (Necas and Faulk). The rest of the players were good but not great players (mostly players to fill out the 2nd or 3rd line). This can explain why when the likes of the Staals, Ward and Semin aged out, the roster bottomed out. During this stretch the AHL contributed 2.18 players that went on to play 150+ games in the NHL.

The drafting department was very hit or miss as well.

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
J. SKINNER	1ST ROUND	7	2010	YES	0
FAULK	2ND ROUND		2010	YES	43
ALT	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	465
A.BIEGA	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	397
LEVI	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	25
R. MURPHY	1ST ROUND	12	2011	NO	285
V. RASK	2ND ROUND		2011	YES	86
LOWE	3RD ROUND		2011	NO	478
DI GIUSEPPE	2ND ROUND		2012	YES	306
MCGINN	2ND ROUND		2012	YES	134
ALTSHULLER	3RD ROUND		2012	NO	43
E. LINDHOLM	1ST ROUND	5	2013	YES	6
PESCE	3RD ROUND		2013	YES	7
H. FLEURY	1ST ROUND	7	2014	NO	106
NEDELJKOVIC	2ND ROUND		2014	YES	181
FOEGELE	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	73
HANIFIN	1ST ROUND	5	2015	YES	0
AHO	2ND ROUND		2015	YES	0
BEAN	1ST ROUND	13	2016	NO	129
J. GAUTHIER	1ST ROUND	21	2016	NO	205
KUOKKANEN	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	164
FILIPE	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	127
ELYNUIK	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	210
LAFONTAINE	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	21
NECAS	1ST ROUND	12	2017	YES	64
LUOSTARAINEN	2ND ROUND		2017	YES	49
L. MARTIN	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	40
M. GEEKIE	3RD ROUND		2017	YES	130
MATTHEOS	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	112
A. SVECHNIKOV	1ST ROUND	2	2018	YES	0
DRURY	2ND ROUND		2018	YES	105
R. SUZUKI	1ST ROUND	28	2019	NO	161
KOCHETKOV	2ND ROUND		2019	YES	44
REES	2ND ROUND		2019	NO	206
PUISTOLA	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	0
HONKA	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	70
FENSORE	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	39
JARVIS	1ST ROUND	13	2020	YES	9
GUNLER	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	42
PONOMAREV	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	120
NIKISHIN	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	0

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st	6	5		11	55%
2nd	9	4	2	15	69%
3rd	3	11	1	15	23%
				41

Faulk and Aho were some very good picks, so was Skinner all things considered. The same can’t be said for players like Fleury and Murphy that became depth players. They did have a lot of draft picks starting in 2016 and onward and got mixed results. The firing of Ron Francis definitely seemed to help in yielding better results. All in all, some good and some bad. The Canes whiffed on a few 1st round picks in this period which definitely dragged them a little.

Did their AHL staff let them down?

Hard to say, many of the players taken after Fleury went on to have great careers. The same can be said about Murphy. Both of these players spent their fair share of time in the AHL so it’s not like they were rushed to the NHL. Perhaps if some of these picks are made to select better players, the Hurricanes are more patient with Lindholm instead of trading him along with Hanifin for Hamilton and other pieces.

It’s interesting to note that some key players like Pesce, Slavin and Aho spent practically no time in the AHL. That being said, the problem with the Hurricanes has been their lack of game breaking talent and I don’t think the AHL can be realistically blamed for that but some misses on Bean, Gauthier and Suzuki despite plenty of AHL time does make you question if they could have moved the needle a little if proper players had been taken at the time. With a gun to my head, I’d argue that the AHL didn’t help for the Hurricanes.

Extra info

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2009-2010	YES	4	DANIELS	0
2010-2011	YES	4	DANIELS	1
2011-2012	NO	4	DANIELS	0
2012-2013	YES	4	DANIELS	1
2013-2014	NO	3	DANIELS	1
2014-2015	NO	4	DANIELS	1
2015-2016	NO	3	MORRIS	2
2016-2017	YES	3	SAMUELSSON	1
2017-2018	YES	4	VELLUCI	3
2018-2019	CHAMPION	3	VELLUCI	5
2019-2020	YES	5	WARSOFSKY	4
	64%

Observation: There was a lot instability for the AHL coaching gig during the later half of the 2010’s. They went through 5 different coaches in 6 seasons and two have them not coached since their HC gig (Morris and Samuelsson). It’s worth pointing out that Fleury played 2/3 of his AHL games under Samuelsson.

NYI (2009-2017)

The Islanders is bit of a weird one since they improved when their franchise player left for TOR but most of the key pieces of puzzle had already been laid out with some of the selections made in this sample. Let’s see if the AHL had anything to do with it:

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
MARTIN	83	955	176	4th line	5
HALEY	480	274	32	Depth forward	Undrafted
HAMONIC	42	841	235	Top 4D	2
KOSKINEN	41	168	85	Dept goaltender	2
CIZIKAS	83	815	245	4th line	4
DE HAAN	76	632	141	Bottom pair defenseman	1
NELSON	71	840	531	Top line forward	1
NIEDERREITER	80	887	443	Top 6 forward	1
STROME	55	782	439	Top 6 forward	1
LEE	59	759	453	Top line forward	6
MAYFIELD	223	469	116	Bottom pair defenseman	2
PULOCK	163	486	191	Top pair defenseman	1
PELECH	105	500	140	Top 4D	3
VERHAEGHE	211	330	249	Top line forward	3
TOEWS	130	397	234	Top pair defenseman	4

Despite the AHL contributing an average of 1.89 NHLers per season it makes up for it with the quality of these players especially when you take into account the draft rank of some of these players. Nelson: late 1st. Lee: 6th round pick. Toews: 4th round pick. Pelech: 3rd round pick.

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
NIEDEREITER	1ST ROUND	5	2010	NO	80
NELSON	1ST ROUND	30	2010	YES	71
KABANOV	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	48
CLARK	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	20
R. STROME	1ST ROUND	5	2011	NO	55
MAYFIELD	2ND ROUND		2011	YES	223
SUNDSTROM	2ND ROUND		2011	NO	171
PEDAN	3RD ROUND		2011	NO	233
G. REINHART	1ST ROUND	4	2012	NO	278
POKKA	2ND ROUND		2012	NO	289
PELECH	3RD ROUND		2012	YES	105
PULOCK	1ST ROUND	15	2013	YES	163
MCADAM	3RD ROUND		2013	NO	55
CAMMARATA	3RD ROUND		2013	NO	0
MDC	1ST ROUND	5	2014	NO	211
HO SANG	1ST ROUND	28	2014	NO	225
SOROKIN	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	0
BARZAL	1ST ROUND	16	2015	YES	0
BEAUVILLIER	1ST ROUND	28	2015	YES	3
VANDE SOMPEL	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	298
BELLOWS	1ST ROUND	19	2016	NO	189
SALO	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	146
MIRAGEAS	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	0

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st	4	6		10	40%
2nd	1	3		4	25%
3rd	2	7		9	22%
				23

The Isles are lucky that some of their project worked out because some of their draft picks were BRUTAL. MDC and Griffin Reinhart are bad as it can get for top 5 busts. It’s in times like these where you don’t criticize them too much for how Strome and Nino turned out for them. The Isles is a very interesting example here because based on how they fared on their top 3 rounds, you’d expect them to be in no man’s land like BUF or ARI but it’s not the case. Some of this can be attributed to some good trades but also the development of some of their later round picks with the aforementioned Toews, Lee plus the likes of Pelech, Cizikas, Hamonic, Mayfield etc. It does make you wonder what happened with all the players that were taken ahead of these projects since their 2nd and 3rd round picks were nothing to write home about.

DID THE AHL CONTRIBUTE IN ISLES’ RUN IN 2020 & 2021? I would say so. What did them in was more the lack of draft picks later on and them having no youngsters to step in. They were a blue collar team with a defensive identity (which had a lot players develop via the AHL) and maybe hitting better on some of their 1st round picks like MDC, Bellows or Wahlstrom would have helped get them to the finals.

Extra info

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2009-2010	YES	2	CAPUANO	1
2010-2011	NO	3	BINGHAM	0
2011-2012	YES	3	THOMPSON	2
2012-2013	NO	4	PELLERIN	4
2013-2014	NO	4	PELLERIN	3
2014-2015	NO	1	THOMPSON	3
2015-2016	YES	1	THOMPSON	3
2016-2017	NO	3	THOMPSON	4
	38%

TAMPA BAY (2009-2016)

The TBL have been one of the best organizations of the last decade, let’s see how the AHL had to do with their success:

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
TOKARSKI	423	80	23	Depth goaltender	5
BARBERIO	267	272	56	Depth defenseman	6
GUDAS	206	748	182	Bottom pair defenseman	3
CONACHER	437	193	75	Depth forward	Undrafted
JOHNSON	137	738	431	Top 6 forward	Undrafted
PANIK	205	521	195	Middle 6 forward	2
PALAT	117	748	477	Top 6 forward	7
CONNOLLY	174	536	195	Middle 6 forward	1
KILLORN	54	868	502	Top 6 forward	3
NAMESNIKOV	134	708	298	Middle 6 forward	1
BROWN	132	365	72	Depth forward	Undrafted
PAQUETTE	89	448	95	4th line	4
NESTEROV	96	170	37	Depth defenseman	5
MARCHESSAULT	306	638	487	Top line forward	Undrafted
KOEKKOEK	187	186	34	Depth defenseman	1
VASILEVSKY	37	477	293	Star goaltender	1
DEANGELO	123	371	210	Bottom pair defenseman	1
ERNE	195	379	91	Depth forward	2

There is a fair mix of everything (top 6 forwards, role players, depth players and even a star goaltender). The AHL contributed an average of 2.57 NHLers in that timespan. For teams with fairly large samples (5+ AHL seasons), that’s the 2nd highest mark for this exercise.

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
CONNOLLY	1ST ROUND	6	2010	NO	174
BEUKEBOOM	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	0
GUDAS	3RD ROUND		2010	YES	206
JANOSIK	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	0
NAMESTNIKOV	1ST ROUND	27	2011	YES	134
KUCHEROV	2ND ROUND		2011	YES	17
KOEKKOEK	1ST ROUND	10	2012	NO	187
VASILEVSKIY	1ST ROUND	19	2012	YES	37
BLUJUS	2ND ROUND		2012	NO	362
B. HART	2ND ROUND		2012	NO	58
T. RICHARD	3RD ROUND		2012	NO	261
DROUIN	1ST ROUND	3	2013	NO	19
ERNE	2ND ROUND		2013	YES	195
DEANGELO	1ST ROUND	19	2014	YES	123
MASIN	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	273
MACLEOD	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	0
POINT	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	9
STEPHENS	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	252
SPENCER	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	54
YAN	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	205
CIRELLI	3RD ROUND		2015	YES	54
HOWDEN	1ST ROUND	27	2016	NO	5
HAJEK	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	129
KATCHOUK	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	173
RADDYSH	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	159
INGRAM	3RD ROUND		2016	YES	149

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st	3	4		7	43%
2nd	2	9		11	18%
3rd	4	4		8	50%
				26

What’s outstanding here is that the Lightning fared the best in the 3rd round with a hit ratio of 50%. It does show how inexact of a science it is that the Lightning got the likes of Point, Cirelli, Ingram in the third round while the guys they took ahead of these players were barely AHLers. The players drafted in the 1st round was really up and down in quality. Connolly suffered multiple injuries but is hardly a guy you’re happy with at 6th overall. DeAngelo was a good swing at 19th overall, who knows where he’d be if he had a good attitude. Koekkoek is a bit of a similar story as Connolly, had trouble staying healthy. The Bolts did most of their damage beyond the 1st round as stated earlier but it’d be a disservice if I didn’t mention the selection of Kucherov in the 2nd round.

DID THE AHL CONTRIBUTE IN THE LIGHTNING ALMOST PULLING OFF A 3-PEAT? I would say it did. It is true that the big guns never or barely played in the AHL (Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Hedman) but other guys that were part of their core did (Cirelli, Killorn, Palat, Vasilevsky, Cernak, Colton).

Extra info

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2009-2010	NO	1	RUMBLE	0
2010-2011	YES	1	COOPER	1
2011-2012	CHAMPION	4	COOPER	4
2012-2013	YES	5	COOPER	5
2013-2014	NO	3	ZETTLER	2
2014-2015	YES	4	ZETTLER	3
2015-2016	NO	3	ZETTLER	2
	57%

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Cooper, who is one of the best coaches in the NHL, was the Head Coach for a large portion of their AHL success stories.

--

Conclusion: To varying degrees, I’d say it did for at least 3 teams. For Caroline it’s a bit harder to give credit to.

Le Barron de HF · Aug 28, 2024

THE FLOPS

COLUMBUS (2009-2019)

Let’s cut to the chase. The Jackets fare decently as far as the rough numbers are concerned.

FUTURE NHLERS	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
SAVARD	176	795	227	Top 4D	4
SESTITO	380	154	21	Depth forward	3
ATKINSON	89	770	480	Top line forward	6
CALVERT	128	566	203	Bottom 6 forward	5
PROUT	165	264	38	Depth defenseman	6
GOLOUBEF	353	160	25	Depth defenseman	2
MOORE	114	544	118	Bottom pair defenseman	1
HOLDEN	295	654	178	Bottom pair defenseman	Undrafted
MARCHESSAULT	306	638	486	Star forward	Undrafted
JOHANSEN	40	905	578	Top line forward	1
CHAPUT	445	182	22	Depth forward	3
ANDERSON	111	535	223	Middle 6 forward	4
SEDLAK	159	192	35	Depth forward	6
KORPISALO	47	276	115	Back-up goaltender	3
A. FORSBERG	186	160	63	Back-up goaltender	7
MILANO	171	310	137	Middle 6 forward	1
BJORKSTRAND	88	545	338	top 6 forward	3
KUKAN	142	153	30	Depth defenseman	Undrafted
ROBINSON	68	306	91	Depth forward	Undrafted
STENLUND	160	206	44	4th line	2
MACKENZIE	339	611	125	4th line	5

They averaged 2.1 players per team during this sample. The names that deserve praise are Bjorkstrand (3rd round), Atkinson (6th round), Savard (4th round) and Marchessault (undrafted). But after that it’s a lot of role players which is disappointing considering the numbers of top 3 picks they had during this sample (29).

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
JOHANSEN	1ST ROUND	4	2010	YES	40
D. SMITH	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	490
P. STRAKA	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	230
JENNER	2ND ROUND		2011	YES	10
TYNAN	3RD ROUND		2011	NO	641
R. MURRAY1ST ROUND	2	2012	NO	1
DANSK	2ND ROUND		2012	NO	171
KORPISALO	3RD ROUND		2012	YES	47
WENNBERG	1ST ROUND	14	2013	YES	6
RYCHEL	1ST ROUND	19	2013	NO	295
DANO	1ST ROUND	27	2013	NO	199
HEATHERINGTON	2ND ROUND		2013	NO	478
BJORKSTRAND	3RD ROUND		2013	YES	88
MILANO	1ST ROUND	14	2014	NO	171
COLLINS	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	278
MERZLIKINS	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	2
SIEBENALER	3RD ROUND		2014	NO	108
WERENSKI	1ST ROUND	8	2015	YES	7
G. CARLSSON	1ST ROUND	29	2015	NO	205
BITTNER	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	190
STENLUND	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	160
KOLESAR	3RD ROUND		2015	YES	151
DUBOIS	1ST ROUND	3	2016	NO	0
PEEKE	2ND ROUND		2016	YES	36
ABRAMOV	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	148
TEXIER	2ND ROUND		2017	YES	7
TARASOV	3RD ROUND		2017	YES	32
L. FOUDY	1ST ROUND	18	2018	NO	69
MARCHENKO	2ND ROUND		2018	YES	16
KARLBERG	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	0

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st	3	6		9	33%
2nd	4	7		11	36%
3rd	5	4		9	56%
				29

3 good picks out of 9 in the first round is rough. They did find some gems in the 2nd round with Jenner and Marchenko and also 3rd round with the aforementioned Bjorkstrand, Elvis, Kolesar but the damage was done for the most part. A team will have a hard time getting out of a rebuild if they don’t have game breaking talent which is what happened here.

Did the AHL play a role in them struggling to be relevant? Unlike some of the teams in this exercise, some of the guys that didn’t turn out played a LOT of AHL hockey (Smith, Collins, Straka, Tynan, etc) so it’s not like they had the wrong approach with some of these players. Was the coaching staff a problem in the AHL? They had Bednar as a coach for two seasons, ended up winning the Cup there but they also had some guys who either didn’t coach for very long after their gig (Yates & Riley) or didn’t have HC experience (Madden).

I think the CBJ may have been unlucky with the drafts they had a lot of draft capital for (2012 and 2013). In 2012 they had the 2nd overall pick in one of the worst drafts of the new millennium and in 2013 they had 3 first round picks in a draft that was very up and down on quality of players. Perhaps if they had had the 2nd overall in 2013 and those 3 picks in 2014 it would have been a different story for them (Wennberg, Rychel and Dano vs Larkin, Schmaltz and Barbashev?).

Extra info

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS IN TOP 5 SCORING	Coach	NHLers
2009-2010	NO	0	Yates	2
2010-2011	NO	3	Riley	3
2011-2012	NO	1	Riley	3
2012-2013	YES	2	Larsen	5
2013-2014	YES	3	Larsen	1
2014-2015	NO	2	Bednar	1
2015-2016	CHAMPIONSHIP	5	Bednar	2
2016-2017	NO	4	Madden	3
2017-2018	NO	1	Madden	0
2018-2019	YES	0	Madden	0
	40%

BUFFALO (2011-2022)

With no surprise Buffalo is part of this list. They have gone through multiple regimes and have yet to make the playoffs.

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
FLYNN	198	275	61	Depth forward	Undrafted
FOLIGNO	93	798	294	Middle 6 forward	4
MCNABB	159	740	159	Top 4D	3
KASSIAN	66	661	203	Middle 6 forward	1
PYSYK	182	521	104	Bottom pair defenseman	1
BIEGA	397	243	42	Depth defenseman	5
GIRGENSONS	61	688	188	Bottom 6 forward	1
LARSSON	164	488	132	4th line	2
ARMIA	134	505	178	Middle 6 forward	1
RUHWEDEL	211	364	49	Depth defenseman	Undrafted
ELLIS	435	356	49	Depth forward	Undrafted
MCCABE	58	577	152	Top 4D	2
CARRIER	127	413	107	4th line	2
ULLMARK	127	247	138	Starter	6
BLACKWELL	187	235	74	Depth forward	7
ASPLUND	178	183	49	Depth forward	2
BORGEN	140	214	53	Bottom pair defenseman	4
BRYSON	76	206	36	Depth defenseman	4
MITTELSTADT	36	357	196	Top 6 forward	1
SAMUELSSON	45	150	29	Top 4D	2
PETERKA	70	161	82	Top 6 forward	2
QUINN	60	104	58	Top 6 forward	1

The Sabres don’t perform badly on this stat with an average of 2 players per team. There is a clear gap between the early years of the rebuild and the later years. Most of the quality players have come in recent years with the like of Peterka and Quinn. The early 2010’s shows that the Sabres were not the best at targeting offensive talent with only guys like Armia and Foligno amounting to much up front. They did not do much better on defense with the likes of McNabb and McCabe being the best they can show.

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
GRIGORENKO	1ST ROUND	12	2012	NO	52
GIRGENSONS	1ST ROUND	14	2012	NO	61
MCCABE	2ND ROUND		2012	YES	58
KEA	3RD ROUND		2012	NO	71
RISTOLAINEN	1ST ROUND	8	2013	YES	34
ZADOROV	1ST ROUND	16	2013	YES	52
COMPHER	2ND ROUND		2013	YES	41
HURLEY	2ND ROUND		2013	NO	0
BAILEY	2ND ROUND		2013	NO	370
BAPTISTE	3RD ROUND		2013	NO	299
S. REINHART	1ST ROUND	2	2014	YES	3
LEMIEUX	2ND ROUND		2014	YES	117
CORNEL	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	277
KARABACEK	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	24
J. JOHANSSON	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	69
B. MARTIN	3RD ROUND		2014	NO	21
EICHEL	1ST ROUND	2	2015	YES	0
GUHLE	2ND ROUND		2015	NO	199
A. NYLANDER	1ST ROUND	8	2016	NO	330
ASPLUND	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	178
PU	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	79
FITZGERALD	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	148
MITTELSTADT	1ST ROUND	8	2017	N/A	36
DAVIDSSON	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	0
UPL	2ND ROUND		2017	YES	69
LAAKSONEN	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	138
DAHLIN	1ST ROUND	1	2018	N/A	0
M. SAMUELSSON	2ND ROUND		2018	YES	45
COZENS	1ST ROUND	7	2019	N/A	0
R. JOHNSON	1ST ROUND	31	2019	N/A	27
PORTILLO	2ND ROUND		2019	N/A	39
QUINN	1ST ROUND	8	2020	N/A	60
PETERKA	2ND ROUND		2020	YES	70

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st	4	3	5	12	57%
2nd	6	7	1	14	46%
3rd	1	6		7	14%
				33

The Sabres’ start of the rebuild was slowed down with some terrible picks in various stages of the draft (Nylander and Grigorenko). There were some guys in the 2nd and 3rd round that were barely pros (Pu, Hurley, Davidsson, etc). It didn’t help that the Sabres had difficulty developing defenseman for quite some time. They are one of the few teams that didn’t develop a top pair defenseman during their sample (excluding Dahlin who was a 1st overall pick). This can explain why their goaltending and their coaching staff have been a revolving door and lacked stability.

Did the AHL drop the ball? It’s worth noting that almost all of them their first round picks except Nylander spent little time in the AHL. I think at the end of the day none of the guys that they selected on defense had the potential to be a homerun and I think that’s what ultimately hurt them.

Extra info

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2011-2012	YES	2	ROLSTON	3
2012-2013	YES	3	ROLSTON	2
2013-2014	YES	3	CASSIDY	3
2014-2015	NO	3	CASSIDY	3
2015-2016	NO	3	CUNNEYWORTH	3
2016-2017	NO	3	LAMBERT	2
2017-2018	YES	1	TAYLOR	1
2018-2019	YES	2	TAYLOR	3
2019-2020*	YES	0	TAYLOR	2
2020-2021*	NO	1	APPERT	3
2021-2022	YES	3	APPERT	3
	64%

One final observation: They had a lot of changes behind the bench which may have hampered the development of certain players. Some of these were also old school coaches (Cunneyworth and Rolston) or coaches with little success after their stint (Cassidy).

FLORIDA (2009-2018)

It may seem odd that Florida is part of this list but let’s not forget that they were a joke before Zito was named their GM (see Gallant needing to call a cab or how they handled first expansion draft).

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
DADONOV	155	537	321	Top 6 forward	3
GARRISON	183	555	160	Top 4D	Undrafted
MATTHIAS	88	551	174	Bottom six forward	2
MARKSTROM	165	485	215	Star goaltender	1
PETROVIC	427	264	50	Bottom pair defenseman	2
TROCHECK	78	719	519	Top line forward	3
GRIMALDI	433	203	67	Depth forward	2
WEEGAR	153	469	204	Top pair defenseman	7
MATHESON	59	547	234	Top 4D	1
MCKEGG	454	233	39	Depth forward	3
SHAW	449	232	39	Depth forward	3
HUNT	269	230	51	Depth forward	Undrafted
MCCANN	42	586	337	Top line forward	1
LAMMIKKO	143	159	26	Depth forward	3
J. BROWN	170	290	34	Depth defenseman	6
MONTEMBEAULT	104	144	49	1A goaltender	3

The Panthers don’t do very good here with an average of 1.77 players per team but similarly to the Islanders, it’s not about quantity but quality. Trocheck, Markstrom, Dadonov, Garrison and Weegar are nice success stories. After that it’s a lot of reserve players but the peaks beat the valleys here.

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
GUDBRANSON	1ST ROUND	3	2010	NO	2
BJUGSTAD	1ST ROUND	19	2010	YES	0
HOWDEN	1ST ROUND	25	2010	NO	207
MCFARLAND	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	199
PETROVIC	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	427
BRICKLEY	2ND ROUND		2010	NO	247
BASARABA	3RD ROUND		2010	NO	22
HUBERDEAU	1ST ROUND	3	2011	YES	0
GRIMALDI	2ND ROUND		2011	NO	433
BENGTSSON	2ND ROUND		2011	NO	53
TROCHECK	3RD ROUND		2011	YES	78
L. SHAW	3RD ROUND		2011	YES	449
RACINE	3RD ROUND		2011	NO	275
RAU	3RD ROUND		2011	NO	478
MATHESON	1ST ROUND	23	2012	YES	59
HODGES	3RD ROUND		2012	NO	29
BARKOV	1ST ROUND	2	2013	YES	0
MCCOSHEN	2ND ROUND		2013	NO	242
EKBLAD	1ST ROUND	1	2014	NO	0
HAWRYLUK	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	174
LAMMIKKKO	3RD ROUND		2014	YES	143
CROUSE	1ST ROUND	11	2015	NO	58
MONTEMBAULT	3RD ROUND		2015	YES	104
SCHEMITSCH	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	318
BORGSTROM	1ST ROUND	23	2016	NO	128
MASCHERIN	2ND ROUND		2016	NO	142
NASSEN	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	0
TIPPETT	1ST ROUND	10	2017	NO	63
HEPONIEMI	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	173
GILDON	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	101
DENISENKO	1ST ROUND	15	2018	NO	166
NOEL	2ND ROUND		2018	NO	72
HUSKO	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	113

Where it went wrong seems to have been at the draft table. The Panthers did terribly in the 2nd round with 0 NHLers produced and also didn’t do much better in the 1st or 3rd round. One could argue they did fairly well from 2010 until 2016 and it’s after that things got dicier. Tippett was the only NHLer produced in the first 3 rounds from 2016 and onward. With some of their young guys like Ekblad, Barkov and Huberdeau entering their prime, getting some additional productive players to join the core would have certainly helped. Instead the Panthers went nowhere and it took a very aggressive overhaul for them to reach their potential under Zito.

Did the AHL play a role in them being stuck in no man’s land? I would not say so, I think their lack of success came more as a result of the scouting and the trades that lacked vision at times (see Trocheck trade and decision to protect Petrovic instead of Marchessault and Smith).

Extra info

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2009-2010	YES	1	GROULX	3
2010-2011	NO	1	WEBER	2
2011-2012	YES	1	WEBER	1
2012-2013	NO	3	WEBER	1
2013-2014	NO	2	HORACHEK	2
2014-2015	YES	2	ROWE	2
2015-2016	YES	1	ROWE	2
2016-2017	NO	3	KINNEAR	2
2017-2018	NO	3	KINNEAR	1
	44%

It’s worth noting that two of the coaches that were their HC have a laughable reputation (Horachek and Rowe).

PHOENIX (2013-2022)

Gary Bettman’s favorite project, let’s see if the AHL led to their lack of success.

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
RIEDER	73	478	145	Middle 6 forward	4
MARTINOOK	182	641	197	Middle 6 forward	2
MURPHY	36	677	141	Top 4D	1
DOMINGUE	198	143	60	Depth goaltender	5
HANLEY	359	193	29	Depth defenseman	Undrafted
FISCHER	63	477	130	Depth forward	2
BUNTING	323	268	181	Top 6 forward	4
DEANGELO	123	371	210	Bottom pair defenseman	1
PERLINI	98	262	81	Depth forward	1
GARLAND	131	404	241	Middle 6 forward	5
TINORDI	429	205	30	Depth defenseman	1
HILL	140	136	64	1A goaltender	3
STROME	50	436	302	Top line forward	1
CROUSE	58	504	197	Top 6 forward	1
HAYTON	35	209	84	Middle 6 forward	1
MACCELLI	47	169	112	Top 6 forward	4

The Phoenix average the same score as FLA with an average of 1.77 players per team. It’s a combo of role players and some quality players. The biggest success story is arguably Bunting who spent a whopping 323 games in the AHL before making it full time to the NHL. What’s worth pointing out is that most of the high end players on this list were run out of town either due to impatience (Strome and Murphy) or negligence (Hill, Bunting, Martinook).

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
PERLINI	1ST ROUND	12	2014	NO	98
MACINNIS	2ND ROUND		2014	NO	299
DVORAK	2ND ROUND		2014	YES	4
A. KARLSSON	3RD ROUND		2014	NO	0
D. STROME	1ST ROUND	3	2015	NO	50
MERKLEY	1ST ROUND	30	2015	NO	201
FISCHER	2ND ROUND		2015	YES	63
CAPOBIANCO	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	224
HILL	3RD ROUND		2015	YES	140
B. WARREN	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	137
LOOKE	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	120
KELLER	1ST ROUND	7	2016	YES	0
CHYCHRUN	1ST ROUND	16	2016	YES	0
DINEEN	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	284
P. JOSEPH	1ST ROUND	23	2017	NO	138
WESTERLUND	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	0
ENTWISTLE	3RD ROUND		2017	YES	80
SCHNARR	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	184
CROTTY	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	219
HAYTON	1ST ROUND	5	2018	N/A	35
BAHL	2ND ROUND		2018	YES	84
JENIK	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	165
EMBERSON	3RD ROUND		2018	N/A	132
SODERSTROM	1ST ROUND	11	2019	NO	170
FARINACI	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	71

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st	2	5	1	8	29%
2nd	3	2		5	60%
3rd	2	9	1	12	20%
				25

The Coyotes dropped the ball a few times here with the Perlini, Joseph, Soderstrom selections all being disappointments. Jury is still out on whether drafting for need with Hayton was the right choice. HFHabs favorite Dvorak is arguably the biggest success story past the first round for the Coyotes. I think it speaks for itself that beside Keller, Chychryn and Strome, the Coyotes have little impact players among their draftees. Is it bad scouting or bad development? Who knows.

Could the AHL staff have done a better job? Your guess is as good as mine. It doesn’t seem like the Coyotes rushed any of their players and the people who were in charge seemed like legit coaches. I don’t know enough about some of these players that amounted to nothing but it is concerning how many there were.

Extra info

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2013-2014	NO	4	EDWARDS	3
2014-2015	YES	3	EDWARDS	1
2015-2016	NO	0	ROLSTON	1
2016-2017	NO	3	LAMB	4
2017-2018	YES	3	VAN RYN	5
2018-2019	NO	4	VARADY	2
2019-2020	YES	3	VARADY	2
2020-2021	NO		POTVIN	2
2021-2022	NO		VARADY	2
	33%

PLAYOFFS

The only questionable HC they had behind the bench was Potvin who lasted only 1 season. The other coaches that they’ve had all seemed like qualified candidates with their resumes.

--

Conclusion:

Hard to say if the staff that was employed in the AHL for some of these teams were part of the problem or just suffered from bad scouting. Some of these teams have dealt with some embarassing bouts of dysfunctional management that were a mess from the very top of chain all the way at the bottom. It's a bit of a chicken or the egg really.
BONUS INFO
The Too Early To Tell Teams

Chicago (2017-2022)

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
D. RADDYSH	339	193	36	Bottom pair defenseman	Undrafted
KAMPF	33	477	130	Bottom 6 forward	Undrafted
GUSTAFSSON	120	455	222	Bottom pair defenseman	4
JOKIHARJU	30	347	87	Bottom pair defenseman	1
A. FORSBERG	186	160	63	Back-up goaltender	7
LANKINEN	40	112	45	Back-up goaltender	Undrafted
ENTWISTLE	80	193	35	Depth forward	3
HAGEL	67	293	207	Top line forward	6
KURASHEV	42	266	116	Middle 6 forward	4
REICHEL	121	99	32	Middle 6 forward	1
SODERBLOM	71	50	7	Depth goaltender	Undrafted

AVG of 2.2 players

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
A. BOQVIST	1ST ROUND	8	2018	NO	15
BEAUDIN	1ST ROUND	27	2018	NO	192
WISE	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	54
NORDGREN	3RD ROUND		2018	NO	0
DACH	1ST ROUND	3	2019	N/A	3
A. VLASIC	2ND ROUND		2019	YES	56
REICHEL	1ST ROUND	17	2020	N/A	121
COMMESSO	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	38
SLAGGERT	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	0

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st		2	2	4	0
2nd	1		1	2	100
3rd		2	1	3	0
				9

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2017-2018	YES	3	COLLITON	3
2018-2019	NO	3	COLLITON/KING	4
2019-2020	NO	3	KING	3
2020-2021	NO	2	KING	0
2021-2022	YES	3	SORENSEN	1
	40%

Anaheim (2018-2022)

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
TERRY	55	350	230	Top line forward	5
STEEL	53	339	117	Bottom 6 forward	1
JONES	51	258	62	Depth forward	1
SHERWOOD	186	187	58	4th line	Undrafted
MAHURA	112	191	45	Depth defenseman	3
BENOIT	162	201	20	Depth defenseman	Undrafted
COMTOIS	35	211	87	Depth forward	2
SPRONG	109	344	159	Bottom 6 forward	2
LUNDESTROM	55	258	69	4th line	1
HAKANPAA	179	288	45	Bottom pair defenseman	4
STOLARZ	155	108	43	Back up goaltender	2
DOSTAL	98	67	19	1B goaltender	3

AVG of 3 players

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
ZEGRAS	1ST ROUND	9	2019	N/A	17
TRACEY	1ST ROUND	29	2019	NO	184
LACOMBE	2ND ROUND		2019	YES	0
DRYSDALE	1ST ROUND	6	2020	N/A	14
J. PERREAULT	1ST ROUND	27	2020	NO	174
COLANGELO	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	4
I. MOORE	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	0

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st		2	2	4	n/a
2nd	1		1	2	n/a
3rd			1	1	n/a
				7

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2018-2019	YES	3	EAKINS	2
2019-2020	YES	2	DINEEN	2
2020-2021	YES	1	DINEEN	2
2021-2022	NO	3	BOUCHARD	1
	75%

Ottawa (2017-2022)

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
PAUL	217	410	158	Middle 6 forward	4
WHITE	72	320	113	Middle 6 forward	1
ENGLUND	300	162	17	Depth defenseman	2
HARPUR	200	198	21	Depth defenseman	4
BATHERSON	103	309	225	Top line forward	4
BALCERS	179	170	62	Depth forward	5
NORRIS	56	183	123	Top 6 forward	1
FORMENTON	76	109	39	Middle 6 forward	2
CARCONE	398	104	38	Middle 6 forward	Undrafted
BRANNSTROM	90	266	69	Bottom pair defenseman	1
DACCORD	98	69	22	1B goaltender	7
GUSTAVSSON	95	111	52	1A goaltender	2
KELLY	128	177	35	Depth forward	Undrafted

AVG of 2.6 players

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
B. TKACHUK	1ST ROUND	4	2018	YES	0
BERNARD DOCKER	1ST ROUND	26	2018	N/A	101
TYCHONICK	2ND ROUND		2018	NO	4
THOMSON	1ST ROUND	19	2019	NO	202
PINTO	2ND ROUND		2019	YES	0
SOGAARD	2ND ROUND		2019	N/A	96
STUTZLE	1ST ROUND	3	2020	N/A	0
SANDERSON	1ST ROUND	5	2020	N/A	0
GREIG	1ST ROUND	28	2020	YES	46
JARVENTIE	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	136
KLEVEN	2ND ROUND		2020	N/A	53
SOKOLOV	2ND ROUND		2020	NO	240
MERILAINEN	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	28

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st	2	1	3	6	N/A
2nd	1	2	3	6	N/A
3rd			1	1	N/A
				13

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2017-2018	NO	3	KLEINENDORST	2
2018-2019	NO	4	MANN	2
2019-2020	YES	4	MANN	4
2020-2021	YES	3	MANN	1
2021-2022	NO	2	MANN	1
	40%

Los Angeles (2018-2022)

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
ROY	102	369	106	Top 4D	7
AMADIO	130	369	112	Bottom 6 forward	3
EYSSIMONT	229	136	40	4th line	5
WALKER	86	313	96	Top 4D	Undrafted
MACDERMID	194	265	31	Depth forward	Undrafted
WAGNER	138	178	42	Depth forward	4
PETERSEN	184	106	46	Depth	5
GRUNDSTROM	99	236	67	4th line	2
VILARDI	75	199	114	Top 6 forward	1
ANDERSON	53	268	58	Top 4D	4
KUPARI	86	158	30	Bottom 6 forward	1
BYFIELD	59	179	88	Top line forward	1
DURZI	91	212	106	Top 4D	2
SPENCE	103	101	33	Bottom pair defenseman	4

AVG of 3.5 players

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
TURCOTTE	1ST ROUND	5	2019	NO	126
BJORNFOT	1ST ROUND	22	2019	NO	109
KALIYEV	2ND ROUND		2019	YES	40
FAGEMO	2ND ROUND		2019	NO	201
PARIK	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	5
BYFIELD	1ST ROUND	2	2020	N/A	59
GRANS	2ND ROUND		2020	NO	171
FABER	2ND ROUND		2020	YES	0
SIMONTAIVAL	3RD ROUND		2020	N/A	0
LAFERRIERE	3RD ROUND		2020	YES	4

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st		2	1	3	n/a
2nd	2	2		4	n/a
3rd	1	1	1	3	n/a
				10

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2018-2019	NO	1	STOTHERS	1
2019-2020	NO	3	STOTHERS	2
2020-2021	NO	5	WROBLEWSKI	3
2021-2022	YES	3	WROBLEWSKI	2
	25%

New Jersey (2014-2022)

	AHL GP	NHL GP	POINTS	ROLE	ROUND
WEDGEWOOD	191	130	48	Back up goaltender	3
KINKAID	250	169	70	Depth	Undrafted
COLEMAN	66	542	251	Middle 6 forward	3
ROONEY	242	260	50	Depth forward	Undrafted
BLACKWOOD	90	196	75	Back up goaltender	2
BASTIAN	188	217	58	4th line	2
MCLEOD	108	287	85	Bottom 6 forward	1
SHARANGOVICH	125	287	165	Top 6 forward	5
ANDERSON	179	151	39	Depth forward	3
ZETTERLUND	138	163	75	Middle 6 forward	3
BAHL	84	148	25	Bottom pair defenseman	2
HOLTZ	76	110	34	Middle 6 forward	1
GREER	278	167	32	4th line	2

AVG of 1.63 player

PLAYER	DRAFT POSITION	NUMBER	DRAFT YEAR	EXPECTATIONS	AHL
ZACHA	1ST ROUND	6	2015	NO	7
BLACKWOOD	2ND ROUND		2015	YES	90
SPEERS	3RD ROUND		2015	NO	203
MCLEOD	1ST ROUND	12	2016	NO	108
BASTIAN	2ND ROUND		2016	YES	188
J. ANDERSON	3RD ROUND		2016	YES	179
GIGNAC	3RD ROUND		2016	NO	285
HISCHIER	1ST ROUND	1	2017	YES	0
J. BOQVIST	2ND ROUND		2017	NO	65
ZETTERLUND	3RD ROUND		2017	YES	138
WALSH	3RD ROUND		2017	NO	234
SMITH	1ST ROUND	17	2018	NO	102
J. HUGHES	1ST ROUND	1	2019	YES	0
OKHOTYUK	2ND ROUND		2019	NO	116
MISYUL	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	44
G. CLARKE	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	218
VUKOJEVIC	3RD ROUND		2019	NO	166
HOLTZ	1ST ROUND	7	2020	NO	76
MERCER	1ST ROUND	18	2020	YES	0
MUKHAMADULLIN	1ST ROUND	20	2020	N/A	67
DAWS	3RD ROUND		2020	YES	64

Per Round	Yes	No	N/A	Total	%
1st	3	4	1	8	43%
2nd	2	2		4	50%
3rd	3	6		9	33%
				21

	PLAYOFF	PROSPECTS	COACH	NHLERS
2014-2015	NO	1	KOWALSKY	0
2015-2016	YES	1	KOWALSKY	0
2016-2017	YES	1	KOWALSKY	2
2017-2018	NO	1	KOWALSKY	1
2018-2019	NO	3	DENNEHY	2
2019-2020	YES	2	DENNEHY	1
2020-2021	NO	5	DENNEHY	2
2021-2022	YES	3	DINEEN	3
	50%

Fenris · Aug 29, 2024

Very interesting, Baron. Thanks!

(From now on, I expect at least the same amount of effort of everyone – except me – in each of their posts.)

Guess · Aug 29, 2024

Thanks for the hard work you put in, appreciate well-researched posts like this!

squashmaple · Aug 29, 2024

This is very interesting, but why are you comparing wildly different time periods from team to team? I apologize if I missed your explanation somewhere in the thread, but your analysis periods seem pretty arbitrary and that undermines your comparisons. Toronto 2013-2021, Carolina 2009-2021, NYI 2009-2017, Tampa 2009-2016, Columbus 2009-2019, Buffalo 2011-2022, Florida 2009-2018, Arizona 2013-2022, anaheim 2018-2022, Ottawa 2017-2022, etc.

Le Barron de HF · Aug 29, 2024

squashmaple said:
This is very interesting, but why are you comparing wildly different time periods from team to team? I apologize if I missed your explanation somewhere in the thread, but your analysis periods seem pretty arbitrary and that undermines your comparisons. Toronto 2013-2021, Carolina 2009-2021, NYI 2009-2017, Tampa 2009-2016, Columbus 2009-2019, Buffalo 2011-2022, Florida 2009-2018, Arizona 2013-2022, anaheim 2018-2022, Ottawa 2017-2022, etc.

Very valid question, I explained my reasoning in 1st post;

I selected 13 organizations that have gone or are still going through rebuilds since the 2009-2010 season. My sample size is 99 AHL teams during that timespan. I did not go beyond the year of 2021-22 nor past the 2020 draft since for some of these players it’s either too early to tell or their exposure to AHL has been limited. For the most part, except for the unlucky fanbases still stuck in a rebuild, my rule of thumb for a complete rebuild cycle + window was 8 years (5 years to accumulate assets and 3 years of contention). For some teams, the sample size may have been shorter due to time period I looked at or may have been longer if team was spinning its wheels in mud. Another element that was taken into account to decide the cutoff for some of these were draft picks. A team such as the Isles that had no 1st round select in 2017 were considered as a team that no longer saw themselves as part of a rebuild which explains why the next year omitted when they had two fairly early 1st round picks.

Feel free to share your concerns on this approach

LaP · Aug 29, 2024

Le Barron de HF said:
Role # AVG AHL games
Star forward
1
75
Top 4D
14
90
Top line forward
14
92
Top 6 forward
19
100
Top pair defenseman
5
120

Insane work. Always liked you as a poster but this is beyond anything.

This pretty much prove a point i've been making for a while. Good players should not spend more than a year and a half in the AHL. If Mailloux is to become a top 4 he should be in the NHL after deadline. If he can't make it then he is either likely going to be a depth player or our management is unable to evaluate talent properly and he's gonna be traded and blossom somewhere else.

HF Habs: Deep Dive on the AHL and influence on a team's rebuild

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