Prospect Info: David Reinbacher - Get Well Soon Edition

[Whitesnake]

We shouldn't, but who gets to the NHL first has never been the barometer for success. So maybe next time we wait to see the development to take place over 5 seasons minimum before we slit our wrists

True. Mete came in the NHL first. Ross Colton later. Nobody thought or still think we won with Mete. Don,t worry. I don't remember ever saying that my pick looks better 'cause they came early. I don't remember. If I did, I was wrong.

 

[WeThreeKings]

True. Mete came in the NHL first. Ross Colton later. Nobody thought or still think we won with Mete. Don,t worry. I don't remember ever saying that my pick looks better 'cause they came early. I don't remember. If I did, I was wrong.

Not targeting you or anyone specifically, just as a whole this board has a tendency to get all mad about guys who get into the NHL before our picks.. I always use Perron vs Pacioretty because that's the earliest example I can remember.

Youth development is so up and down.. Slafkovsky went on a tear last year and now he looks behind both Wright and Cooley. Nemec looked like the logical 2OA and this year it looks like he's well behind the pace.

 

[Andy]

Further to my last post. Look at how the 2003 draft unfolded.

People's top 5 picks 3 years post draft, 8 years post draft, 10 years post draft would result in three different lists.

The dumbest thing to do is to spill endless words on who should have been selected one or two years after a draft. The fact is, its all guess work. Anyone pretending its not is full of shit.

You have your hunches, and your educated guesses, but it's really all pissing in the wind.

 

[1909]

Marcel Dionne.

Dionne was awesome, but Lafleur was better.

Tbf Kulich has been mishandled. Buffalo is always bad and their player always florish elsewhere.

It could had been Lamoureux instead of Mesar, too.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Dionne was awesome, but Lafleur was better.


It could had been Lamoureux instead of Mesar, too.

It could be anyone.. when you are comparing one pick against the field, it's very rare that one pick will beat the entire field. Usually only happens at the very top of the draft and even that isn't always the case.

 

[Whitesnake]

And why doesn't apply to the Habs and Reinbacher?

I mean, in Reinbacher's own way and value for what HE brings.

The same way that the Florida Panthers selected Aaron Ekblad 1st overall, while Leon Draisaitl went 2 picks later.

I don't see any Panthers fans or anyone in the Panthers organization lamenting the fact they passed on LD for AE.

Yeah I don't think this "woah is me" attitude is justification, no other fanbase beats themselves over this kind of stuff.

But maybe it does have to do with the fact that 1 major team to cheer for...but whose preventing people from watching and cheering for teams in other cities?

Entitlement isn't an excuse that's viable.

Oh I can figure out why, see above, we're an entitled fanbase.

But that's not what I don't get. It's the level of intensity at which this discussion bleeds into everything, here, social media, radio, podcasts. It's just this never ending incessant self-mutilation that I don't see in other fanbases.

Teams pass on guys, it happens...in every sport, every year, we've gotten guys that other teams should have picked.

But no one whines about it like we do.

Like I get it, it's especially difficult because Reinbacher is injured...but man.

The Michkovites annoy TF out of me, so yes no doubt about that lol Kulich though, i'm just having fun lol

It ain't that serious lol

Tougher to do that for Reinbacher mostly because of the needs approach or what appeared to be a need approach. Also, it's a tough comparison cause a PPG forwards vs a 2-way 40-point d-man...you will lose that comparison every day. Also, for us, the mere armchair scouts...note that known consensus amongst the ''experts'' also count. And they are not always wrong.

On McKenzie list....Ekblad was 1st. I mean, look at every top scouting groups...the 1-2-3 were Ekblad, Bennett and Reinhart. Drai was from 4th to 6th. Michkov was 5 on McKenzie (mostly because he was Russian) and Rein was 8th.

So right now you are talking about known vs unknown commodities. But you can't compare both.

Not sure that it's entitlement. I mean, we haven't been relevant in 30 years. I think it's just having no other sports team to concentrate ourselves into. It,s about being invested. Maybe too much. And jumping the gun often early. But then...I don't think us armchair scouts are the only ones who do that. It doesn't justify it but it just shows that all those professionnals with their tons of mistakes are also jumping the gun often.

I think right now it's just a little more than passing on a guy. For example, the whole JK fiasco was bad. But we've kinda moved on. We,ve giving Sergachev for nothing. We moved on. I remember back in my days...it took me awhile but I've moved on from John Leclair. Even if he was scoring 50 f***ing goals. Moved on from Roy too. Moving on, that's what we do at some point. But man...Michkov is PPG, in a year where is suppose to be in Russia....for the next 2 years...lollll

You have to expect at least this year? I mean, there's passing on on a 50-point guy. But if we passed on on the next Kucherov.....Who by the way we passed on too....and rarely talk about...though it helped that we didn't have a 2nd rounder...lolll

 

[Andy]

It could be anyone.. when you are comparing one pick against the field, it's very rare that one pick will beat the entire field. Usually only happens at the very top of the draft and even that isn't always the case.

There is this weird trend recently where folks expect that a 1st round pick is going to be a star. It’s been really acute the last few years.

I would really encourage people to look at the top 10 picks in every draft of the last 15 years. You are lucky if each draft produces two star players in the top 10 every year. You’re 80% likely to pick a busy or average player even with a top 10 pick.

The expectations are unreal recently

 

[WeThreeKings]

There is this weird trend recently where folks expect that a 1st round pick is going to be a star. It’s been really acute the last few years.

I would really encourage people to look at the top 10 picks in every draft of the last 15 years. You are lucky if each draft produces two star players in the top 10 every year. You’re 80% likely to pick a busy or average player even with a top 10 pick.

The expectations are unreal recently

I'm not sure what it is but I think it might be a bit of the Leafs effect, they look at that rebuild and they managed to basically pick a star forward with their rebuilding picks - Nylander then Marner then Matthews.

The problem that they don't see is the Leafs also didn't get any defenseman, they missed on pretty much all of their picks outside of their top 10 picks in that period, and had to then sell their picks every year for mercenary role players.

It also put them into the playoffs pretty much as soon as Matthews arrived and we've seen that without any adversity until the playoffs, they developed a core that consistently can't even win a round.

 

[417]

Because I don't think I have to write an opinion always by starting with IN MY OPINION. I thought we were past that. Should I put it in my signature to avoid misunderstanding?

But I didn't say anything about you putting it as your opinion, I said, why say it with such certainty.

Which is an entirely different thing.

As far as your entire post....so.....why in jest talk about Benson and Kulich issues in the NHL if it's just maybe part of the normal process?

As I said a few posts above, I was being facetious, just having a little fun.

I have no idea where I said that AHL success means NHL success. I didn't even say AHL presence MEANS NHL success. I said that you are, IN MY OPINION, helping a kid by slowly taking the step one at a time. Most importantly if you come from Europe with a different schedule, different toughness in leagues etc. Most importantly for player of smaller stature no matter where they come from. OBVIOUSLY never talking about exceptionnals. I do NOT think Bedard should go to the AHL 'cause some are saying that he is struggling. But still not sure what warranted Benson to be a NHL'er with the team they have.

Fair - but back to what I was saying, maybe we need to update our software as it relates to kids graduating to the NHL.

The growing pains used to happen in the AHL, far away from our eyes unless you watched "Rinkside" with Gord Stellick (God i'm old).

Can some kid succeed while not going in the AHL. Sure. No doubt. I do not know why it,s scary or problematic to take your time with non-superstar players.

Not problematic, just not sure why that "time" can't also include the NHL.

 

[417]

Tougher to do that for Reinbacher mostly because of the needs approach or what appeared to be a need approach. Also, it's a tough comparison cause a PPG forwards vs a 2-way 40-point d-man...you will lose that comparison every day. Also, for us, the mere armchair scouts...note that known consensus amongst the ''experts'' also count. And they are not always wrong.

Every draft pick is a need approach, this BPA thing is just fallacy.

Another common thing people love saying but in reality, every single team picks a player they think is the BPA.

C'est dire qqch, sans vraiment rien dire lol.

On McKenzie list....Ekblad was 1st. I mean, look at every top scouting groups...the 1-2-3 were Ekblad, Bennett and Reinhart. Drai was from 4th to 6th. Michkov was 5 on McKenzie (mostly because he was Russian) and Rein was 8th.

So right now you are talking about known vs unknown commodities. But you can't compare both.

Well Draisaitl is clearly the superior player, but it doesn't take away from the value that Aaron Ekblad has brought to the Florida Panthers and within the template of building a team that needs different pieces.

Another example is Sam Bennett...a guy many people thought was a bust for where he was picked.

Years later and without really ever putting up huge points, he's seen as a super valuable player that many teams would kill to have.

I think right now it's just a little more than passing on a guy. For example, the whole JK fiasco was bad. But we've kinda moved on. We,ve giving Sergachev for nothing. We moved on. I remember back in my days...it took me awhile but I've moved on from John Leclair. Even if he was scoring 50 f***ing goals. Moved on from Roy too. Moving on, that's what we do at some point. But man...Michkov is PPG, in a year where is suppose to be in Russia....for the next 2 years...lollll

Ouf that was a tough one lol especially because he killed us every time he played.

But you're also proving my point...this team has and will continue to miss players, just like we'll hit on players other teams wish they would have.

Thats's sports...but you can't deny that there's a very specific group of Michkovites who are very, very, very persistent in dwelling on it and those are the same fans who will never appreciate what a guy like Reinbacher might bring

and that's unfortunate for the kid if you ask me.

You have to expect at least this year? I mean, there's passing on on a 50-point guy. But if we passed on on the next Kucherov.....Who by the way we passed on too....and rarely talk about...though it helped that we didn't have a 2nd rounder...loll

That's kind of my point lol.

 

[Ozmodiar]

1st rd core from last dozen years. Time Machine edition.

Slaf - Aho - Demidov
CC - Kempe - Michkov

Theodore - Hughes
Sergachev - Mailloux
Guhle

Oettinger

Mistakes were made. lol
It happens.

 

[WeThreeKings]

1st rd core from last dozen years. Time Machine edition.

Slaf - Aho - Demidov
CC - Kempe - Michkov

Theodore - Hughes
Sergachev - Mailloux
Guhle

Oettinger

Mistakes were made. lol
It happens.

Mistakes made by every team.

All you can do is look at the absolute best drafting teams in the league and see even they don't make the -best- pick every time and still pick a fair share of busts.

How we feel about Tampa Bay as a drafting team changes massively if they don't have an extra 1st in the Vasilevskiy draft and an extra 2nd in the Kucherov draft.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Mistakes made by every team.

It goes without saying.

 

[WeThreeKings]

It goes without saying.

Here it needs saying.

 

[River Meadow]

Difference between "discussing" and "dwelling".

6 other teams passed on MM, but only one fanbase constantly behaves like he was born to be a Habs pick and it was taken out from under them.

We've missed out on TONS of players over the years, some guys who went on to be HOFers, but I've never seen this level of FOMO before.

 

[Whitesnake]

Every draft pick is a need approach, this BPA thing is just fallacy.

Another common thing people love saying but in reality, every single team picks a player they think is the BPA.

C'est dire qqch, sans vraiment rien dire lol.

Well Draisaitl is clearly the superior player, but it doesn't take away from the value that Aaron Ekblad has brought to the Florida Panthers and within the template of building a team that needs different pieces.

Another example is Sam Bennett...a guy many people thought was a bust for where he was picked.

Well we disagree on that. Some teams won't care about position. And just take whoever they like. Because when the said player is ready to go, even if they are selected top 10, the need they know they have now might not be the need they'll have when the said player picked will be able to help them.

Drai is indeed the superior player now. But that's in hindsight. At that time, Ekblad was the guy to get. So was Bennett. don't remember people sayin he was a bust at that position. But again, the Drai-Ekblad vs Michkov-Reinbacher comparison makes no sense, as the first exists in hindsight and the other is still a projection.

Could Reinbacher be Ekhblad. Could he also be Thomas Hickey. That too. Projections are just that. They could be whatever till they are. I do think that he will be serviceable. A minute-muncher but, in my opinion. not that offensive. Good 1st pass, defensive IQ. Serviceable. You just wish that when you pick top 5...you get more than...serviceable. Hopefully he will.

 

[Whitesnake]

Mistakes made by every team.

All you can do is look at the absolute best drafting teams in the league and see even they don't make the -best- pick every time and still pick a fair share of busts.

How we feel about Tampa Bay as a drafting team changes massively if they don't have an extra 1st in the Vasilevskiy draft and an extra 2nd in the Kucherov draft.

Absolutely true. But winning heals a lot. I mean, Boston...who had 3 f***ing chances to pick better players than they actually did. But in the last 10 years...Boston has been so relevant as a team....that 1st round still sucks...I mean it will be seen as one of the worst 1st round ever by a team.....but again...winning helps.

See Detroit as well. We keep hearing how Detroit was awesome at drafting. While in the end, that team was made out of the 1989 draft with Fedorov, Lindstrom and Konstantinov. Add Kozlov, Primeau and then Datsyuk came in freakin 1998. That's 10 years. 6 players. They picked a gazillion number of times. In 93 they missed Bertuzzi. Satan. Langenbrunner etc. Every year they missed too.

BUT...they still became a dynasty. And being able to draft all those hall of famers made them look more awesome than they were.

So yes, every team makes mistakes. But winning helps forgetting. For the ones that are in the same situation as us, you'd think they say they same thing. Or it's less evident 'cause they are less numerous to say it.

 

[habbubba]

All I keep hearing are stories of how shy he is.

A shy Austrian? how refreshing, times sure have changed haven't they. lol

 

[LaP]

Absolutely true. But winning heals a lot. I mean, Boston...who had 3 f***ing chances to pick better players than they actually did. But in the last 10 years...Boston has been so relevant as a team....that 1st round still sucks...I mean it will be seen as one of the worst 1st round ever by a team.....but again...winning helps.

See Detroit as well. We keep hearing how Detroit was awesome at drafting. While in the end, that team was made out of the 1989 draft with Fedorov, Lindstrom and Konstantinov. Add Kozlov, Primeau and then Datsyuk came in freakin 1998. That's 10 years. 6 players. They picked a gazillion number of times. In 93 they missed Bertuzzi. Satan. Langenbrunner etc. Every year they missed too.

BUT...they still became a dynasty. And being able to draft all those hall of famers made them look more awesome than they were.

So yes, every team makes mistakes. But winning helps forgetting. For the ones that are in the same situation as us, you'd think they say they same thing. Or it's less evident 'cause they are less numerous to say it.

Yeah but why people all our prospects will fail and we'll never win?

I don't like all moves made by KH. I've been vocal about not liking the Newhook trade from day 1. But the point of having lot of picks is even if some of them will bust some wont. The year TB drafted Kucherov in the 2nd round they also drafted a bust in the 1st round. TB had two 1st in 2009, three 3rd in 2010, two 1st and two 2nd in 2012.

I think there's lot of Dunning-Kruger effect at play here watching some fans being 100% sure a young player will bust when he is 20-21 years old. The reality is nobody here know if Mesar will develop or not. I know some like to think they do but they really don't.

I don't like everything KH did. I would have drafted Michkov. I would not have traded the picks for Newhook. I would have done the Dach move it was worth the try imo. But i wont bust Reinbacher because i don't like the pick. KH's strategy is sound. Getting lot of picks and going at bat multiple times. I'll judge his picks when everything is said and done in about 2 to 3 years not before that cause like everyone here i don't know if a young player will develop or not when he is younger than 23.