Value of: Dante Fabbro

[EK392000]

A few questions:

How would you describe his play? Maybe use a comparable player
What would his next contract look like?
What is the most apt characterization of his quality as a dman? top 4? fringe top 4?
If you were to give him a rating like in NHL 23, what would it be?

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[Porter Stoutheart]

People are probably going to underrate Fabbro based on the poor utilization and treatment he received last season under an incompetent coach. He's better than last season's statistics would make you think, if you are just stats-watching.

The season before, when he was Roman Josi's regular partner, Josi had an exceptional scoring season, and while Fabbro did not receive any accolades for his contribution to that, he was a steady 19-20mins a night complementary D that season, and the two seasons before, at ages 21-23 in the NHL (young ages for a regular NHL d-man!). Just his 24-year old season last year went a bit off the rails with the coach choosing to prefer a different style of play and bump Fabbro down in the rotation. We thought after the 2021-22 season that Fabbro was probably in line for something like a 4-5yrsx$4-5M contract as a steady young top-4 D. Instead, after last season's shuffle, he just got a 1x$2.5M "show me" deal while he hopefully rebuilds his reputation under a new coach.

Anyway, that's more like the backstory. Stylistically, he's a good skater in all directions, smooth, plays a pretty good heads-up style that enables transition either with skating or passing. He still tends to play more defensively and conservatively overall, however. He controls his gaps with his skating and stick, but he is not physical at all - which is probably a major reason why Hynes seemed to dislike him, as Hynes favored bigger and tougher players (who were not as good) in most situations.

I would have no problems whatsoever seeing Fabbro re-establish his spot on the Preds' 1st pair in the coming season with Josi. We already know they play very well together and that Fabbro's skating and defensive posture complements Josi's offensive tendencies very well. I don't think that will happen, however, at least not at first, as the team seems to be touting the new signing of Luke Schenn as Josi's likely starting partner. But I think they'll find over time that Schenn can't really handle those minutes, and hopefully Fabbro regains that spot. If not, well, it could be another challenging season for Fabbro to get icetime, since the Preds do have 4 guys on the right side, with Schenn, Barrie, and Carrier also all in the mix.

So it's really up in the air where Fabbro will land in the coming season and what his next contract might look like. But I think we've already seen those age 21-23 seasons of him looking like a steady top-4 player worth $4Mish. If he doesn't play enough again with the Preds next season to get that, he should probably ask for a change of scenery trade, he would be able to play more and thereby earn more playing for a different team.

 

[Hodge]

Would love to reunite him with David Quinn in SJ. Is Mario Ferraro for Fabbro a decent starting point for a trade to help balance the handedness of both teams bluelines?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Would love to reunite him with David Quinn in SJ. Is Mario Ferraro for Fabbro a decent starting point for a trade to help balance the handedness of both teams bluelines?

We do also have 3 LD lined up with Josi, McDonagh, and Lauzon, though I would be happy enough to launch Lauzon into the sun to make room for Ferraro. So it is fine by me. Back when we were musing about using our Cap space to facilitate some extra retention on flipping Karlsson to Carolina, sending Fabbro to the Sharks was generally considered a likely part of that whole 3-way scheme. In whatever fashion, San Jose would definitely be a great landing spot for Fabbro IMHO.

 

[triggrman]

Fabbro is one of those guys that is not "the guy" but he makes "the guy" better at whatever he does.

 

[Fatass]

Is he worth more than a pick between 30 and 40 in a draft?

 

[EK392000]

We do also have 3 LD lined up with Josi, McDonagh, and Lauzon, though I would be happy enough to launch Lauzon into the sun to make room for Ferraro. So it is fine by me. Back when we were musing about using our Cap space to facilitate some extra retention on flipping Karlsson to Carolina, sending Fabbro to the Sharks was generally considered a likely part of that whole 3-way scheme. In whatever fashion, San Jose would definitely be a great landing spot for Fabbro IMHO.

If Fabbro were to be traded, what sort of package/player would you be looking for? Young roster player? Prospect? Picks? Veteran? Some combo of those?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If Fabbro were to be traded, what sort of package/player would you be looking for? Young roster player? Prospect? Picks? Veteran? Some combo of those?

If it was just a pick or a prospect, I would aim higher than probably most teams would reasonably want to give up. I would need a 1st or an equivalent top prospect. After all, to me, Fabbro is a good young top-4 D at a reasonable price, and I feel like he has panned out as good value for where he was originally drafted at #17 overall.

But tbh, I don't really see him traded in any kind of 1:1 move, either for futures or even for some equivalent-ish player at a different position. The Preds already have their roster set, and a fair number of prospects coming at basically all positions. There isn't really any glaring need that I'd choose to swap Fabbro out for, therefore.

More likely, I'd consider using him as a component in a deal trying to get some kind of "upgrade" in some fashion. But I don't have any suggestions in that area. It's kind of tough to tell what the Preds need or where they realistically stand right now, there have been so many changes and there are so many young players we're hoping step up, it's probably going to take a while to sort everything out.

Is he worth more than a pick between 30 and 40 in a draft?

Yes.

 

[Fatass]

If it was just a pick or a prospect, I would aim higher than probably most teams would reasonably want to give up. I would need a 1st or an equivalent top prospect. After all, to me, Fabbro is a good young top-4 D at a reasonable price, and I feel like he has panned out as good value for where he was originally drafted at #17 overall.

But tbh, I don't really see him traded in any kind of 1:1 move, either for futures or even for some equivalent-ish player at a different position. The Preds already have their roster set, and a fair number of prospects coming at basically all positions. There isn't really any glaring need that I'd choose to swap Fabbro out for, therefore.

More likely, I'd consider using him as a component in a deal trying to get some kind of "upgrade" in some fashion. But I don't have any suggestions in that area. It's kind of tough to tell what the Preds need or where they realistically stand right now, there have been so many changes and there are so many young players we're hoping step up, it's probably going to take a while to sort everything out.



Yes.

He’s a pretty good player and is right shot. Just not too sure he’s worth Chychrun kind of value.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

He’s a pretty good player and is right shot. Just not too sure he’s worth Chychrun kind of value.

He's not. Chychrun got a #12 overall pick in a great draft plus two 2nds, right?

But anyway, all values are relative. All I'm saying is I wouldn't trade Fabbro for less than a 1st from the Nashville perspective. I am not "asking for" that return, since I don't really want to trade him at all, so it doesn't really matter to me if other teams would pay that or not (I don't expect there would be many who would - and most teams who could make best use of Fabbro are probably rebuilding teams like SJ, who obviously are not in any position to give up 1st round picks right?) So the draft pick valuation is purely symbolic.

 

[Fatass]

He's not. Chychrun got a #12 overall pick in a great draft plus two 2nds, right?

But anyway, all values are relative. All I'm saying is I wouldn't trade Fabbro for less than a 1st from the Nashville perspective. I am not "asking for" that return, since I don't really want to trade him at all, so it doesn't really matter to me if other teams would pay that or not (I don't expect there would be many who would - and most teams who could make best use of Fabbro are probably rebuilding teams like SJ, who obviously are not in any position to give up 1st round picks right?) So the draft pick valuation is purely symbolic.

So a pick between 30 and 40 might be his value? That’s a late first to early second.

 

[Petes2424]

Fabbro likely never reaches the level many thought he would, but it doesn’t mean he’s a bust or anything remotely close to.

He’s solid all around, but doesn’t do anything special. That’s what ultimately separates dmen in the NHL.

Players like this usually have their best years from 26-32. They mature into their role with experience, and become dependable role players.

Maatta is a great comparable. Had a lot of expectations as a young player, but has settled into just being a solid role player, who now plays within himself. He can play in your top 4 in a supporting role but he’s not going to drive the play.

So if you wanna call him a bottom pairing dman, that’s fair. I like to use the terms role player vs pair carrying dman. Fabbro is probably going to settle into being a really good role player.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

So a pick between 30 and 40 might be his value? That’s a late first to early second.

I don't think we take that, for me, he is the highest likelihood to be in our long term plans based on what he's already shown. We have an outlier year, and then we have the other sample of what Nashville fans have seen. I think he needs a season with Josi to get steady and then we give him a 4x4 like Porter was saying. If we trade for a fringe 1st, those guys are so far away from any contributing role. We have quite a bit of picks in the system that are going to be comparable to a fringe 1st round pick. I don't see that as enticing enough to move him when he could be a season away from being locked up on a longer deal at a reasonable rate. I agree with Porter again. The only way we move him is if it's in a package for a clear upgrade like some of the Pesce rumors had us thinking about, but I am not sure there was much merit to that.

Fabbro likely never reaches the level many thought he would, but it doesn’t mean he’s a bust or anything remotely close to.

He’s solid all around, but doesn’t do anything special. That’s what ultimately separates dmen in the NHL.

Players like this usually have their best years from 26-32. They mature into their role with experience, and become dependable role players.

Maatta is a great comparable. Had a lot of expectations as a young player, but has settled into just being a solid role player, who now plays within himself. He can play in your top 4 in a supporting role but he’s not going to drive the play.

So if you wanna call him a bottom pairing dman, that’s fair. I like to use the terms role player vs pair carrying dman. Fabbro is probably going to settle into being a really good role player.

He's Dan Hamhuis without the hip check

 

[Fatass]

I don't think we take that, for me, he is the highest likelihood to be in our long term plans based on what he's already shown. We have an outlier year, and then we have the other sample of what Nashville fans have seen. I think he needs a season with Josi to get steady and then we give him a 4x4 like Porter was saying. If we trade for a fringe 1st, those guys are so far away from any contributing role. We have quite a bit of picks in the system that are going to be comparable to a fringe 1st round pick. I don't see that as enticing enough to move him when he could be a season away from being locked up on a longer deal at a reasonable rate. I agree with Porter again. The only way we move him is if it's in a package for a clear upgrade like some of the Pesce rumors had us thinking about, but I am not sure there was much merit to that.


He's Dan Hamhuis without the hip check

That’s a heck of a good player. I think Hamhuis made the Olympic team. Fabbro is a top 7 D for Canada

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

So a pick between 30 and 40 might be his value? That’s a late first to early second.

A pick in the #15-25 range in a more normal draft than this year's would be "fair", although I wouldn't automatically take that from the Nashville perspective today, but I would be polite in my refusal to any team that offered it. I would be less polite in my refusal to a team that offered a #30-40 pick.

Though I don't expect any team to offer anything today, so I don't see how it matters. Preds still want to see him play, so do other teams, nobody knows today whose pick will land in that range in the draft. By the time he could possibly end up on the trade market for just a draft pick, his value may have changed. Hence why I say the draft pick value is purely "symbolic".

 

[Fatass]

A pick in the #15-25 range in a more normal draft than this year's would be "fair", although I wouldn't automatically take that from the Nashville perspective today, but I would be polite in my refusal to any team that offered it. I would be less polite in my refusal to a team that offered a #30-40 pick.

Though I don't expect any team to offer anything today, so I don't see how it matters. Preds still want to see him play, so do other teams, nobody knows today whose pick will land in that range in the draft. By the time he could possibly end up on the trade market for just a draft pick, his value may have changed. Hence why I say the draft pick value is purely "symbolic".

I like the idea of using the draft pick to estimate a player’s trade value too. Chychrun got a top 15 pick. So did Romanov. Maybe Fabbro would be closer to 20-25?

 

[DavidBL]

Based on what I can see here, it doesn't really seem like a likely trade candidate. Maybe if they can't afford to retain him next season which based on their current roster doesn't seem like an issue? Maybe a Devon Toews comparison if they actually did decide to move him?

 

[wmupreds]

Smooth skating responsible defensive minded player with a pretty good first pass. At this point it's unrealistic to expect his offensive game to break out. But he can move the puck a lot better than many stay at home types.

I would say his value is highly dependent on whether a team needs that type of player. Generally I consider his archetype to be more valuable to the team he's already on than what will be offered on the trade market.

 

[Petes2424]

I don't think we take that, for me, he is the highest likelihood to be in our long term plans based on what he's already shown. We have an outlier year, and then we have the other sample of what Nashville fans have seen. I think he needs a season with Josi to get steady and then we give him a 4x4 like Porter was saying. If we trade for a fringe 1st, those guys are so far away from any contributing role. We have quite a bit of picks in the system that are going to be comparable to a fringe 1st round pick. I don't see that as enticing enough to move him when he could be a season away from being locked up on a longer deal at a reasonable rate. I agree with Porter again. The only way we move him is if it's in a package for a clear upgrade like some of the Pesce rumors had us thinking about, but I am not sure there was much merit to that.


He's Dan Hamhuis without the hip check

If he can be that, he’ll make solid money for the next 8-10 years. If he can add a Hamhuis, or even a Brad Stuart type element to his game, it’ll push him towards being a really high-end role player.

Stuart is another one who really had to redefine his game around 25 years old, by accepting what he did really well at the NHL level, and improving on that, rather than continuing to try being something he was supposed to be at 18 years old.

The issue for Nashville is, a lot of the time it takes a change of scenery for the player to be shown this. The drafting team, and even a player’s second team, generally keep trying to shove players into a certain box they seen the player becoming at 18 yrs old.

The good thing is, the changes in Nashville could help him do this. Trotz knows what he’s doing in this regard, and having a Luke Schenn, who really had to accept his limitations to have a long career, can probably help him with this too.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If he can be that, he’ll make solid money for the next 8-10 years. If he can add a Hamhuis, or even a Brad Stuart type element to his game, it’ll push him towards being a really high-end role player.

Stuart is another one who really had to redefine his game around 25 years old, by accepting what he did really well at the NHL level, and improving on that, rather than continuing to try being something he was supposed to be at 18 years old.

The issue for Nashville is, a lot of the time it takes a change of scenery for the player to be shown this. The drafting team, and even a player’s second team, generally keep trying to shove players into a certain box they seen the player becoming at 18 yrs old.

The good thing is, the changes in Nashville could help him do this. Trotz knows what he’s doing in this regard, and having a Luke Schenn, who really had to accept his limitations to have a long career, can probably help him with this too.

It has always felt to me like Fabbro is a bit the opposite of this. Like, he "accepted his limitations" right out of the gate from his first game in the NHL. Almost... too much so. Because he has played so conservatively already, when in fact his skating and IQ leads me to think he could actually jump in a little bit more on offense than he ever tries to.

Hopefully what Brunette will do is allow him the confidence booster to actually start doing that more. Because he just isn't ever going to have the size to be anybody's ideal picture of a solid stay-at-home guy, even though that's already what he seems to think of himself as.

 

[triggrman]

It has always felt to me like Fabbro is a bit the opposite of this. Like, he "accepted his limitations" right out of the gate from his first game in the NHL. Almost... too much so. Because he has played so conservatively already, when in fact his skating and IQ leads me to think he could actually jump in a little bit more on offense than he ever tries to.

Hopefully what Brunette will do is allow him the confidence booster to actually start doing that more. Because he just isn't ever going to have the size to be anybody's ideal picture of a solid stay-at-home guy, even though that's already what he seems to think of himself as.

Under Lavy, Fabbro (a rookie) had 5 goals and 5 assist and was averaging 18:43 of ice time on a team with PK, Josi, Ekholm, Ellis and Hamhuis.

He has played 210 games under Hynes and has scored 8 goals and 41 assist in those games.

Hynes was a problem.

edit: PK was only with him for 4 games during regular season.

 

[biturbo19]

It's kind of fascinating to me after the way he looked in the BCHL and even college, that he's actually developed into such a completely unremarkable "conservative" sort of safe uneventful defenceman. Not an offensive guy. Between him and Jost, that Veees team was obviously pretty misleading in the sort of "upside" guys had offensively.


But in any case...it seems like he's a guy that is either going to re-establish his value with Nashville under a new coach, or he's going to be dumped as a bit of a reclamation project. I'd wager more likely the former. He seemed to be developing alright into a useful #4D sort of player until last year derailed him a little bit.

Never going to develop into the player i think Nashville expected when they drafted him. But still useful in the right role. Only reason i see Nashville moving on from him though, is if he falters again this year and looks like he's stalled out, and probably requests a "change of scenery" trade at that point.

 

[biturbo19]

He's Dan Hamhuis without the hip check

Hamhuis was a top tier shutdown D at his peak. I don't think Fabbro is anywhere even close to the same stratosphere as that. Stylistically, i can sort of see the comparison, as a mostly very quiet, understated sort of defenceman. But Hamhuis was on a completely different level defensively and had better mobility than Fabbro as well. Plus, the hip check.

 

[triggrman]

Hamhuis was a top tier shutdown D at his peak. I don't think Fabbro is anywhere even close to the same stratosphere as that. Stylistically, i can sort of see the comparison, as a mostly very quiet, understated sort of defenceman. But Hamhuis was on a completely different level defensively and had better mobility than Fabbro as well. Plus, the hip check.

He absolutely did not have more mobility. Fabbro’s biggest asset is his skating

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Hamhuis was a top tier shutdown D at his peak. I don't think Fabbro is anywhere even close to the same stratosphere as that. Stylistically, i can sort of see the comparison, as a mostly very quiet, understated sort of defenceman. But Hamhuis was on a completely different level defensively and had better mobility than Fabbro as well. Plus, the hip check.

He's not there yet, but I think Fabbro can reach that level. I remember Dan well. He was a good pred for us that should've been here longer.