LeBrun: Dallas and Minnesota interested in Brock Nelson

[thestonedkoala]

Teams will offer the high end prospect and a 2025 1st which will beat these Minnesota offers.

Which high end prospect? Also when was the last time a 33 year old soon to be UFA got that high of an offer?

 

[miscs75]

Which high end prospect? Also when was the last time a 33 year old soon to be UFA got that high of an offer?

Age aside, look at Brock’s goal scoring the past 3 seasons and what he’s projected for this season. Teams will pay for that and it’s not a mediocre pick with a prospect who’s overhyped. Guentzel and Ty Smith combined went for more than the Wild offer and Brock has outproduced him without having Crosby on his line like Guentzel did.

 

[Digitalbooya]

You don’t have a first available in the next 2 drafts. Trading for a 1st in 3 seasons from now just isn’t going to cut it. Teams will offer the high end prospect and a 2025 1st which will beat these Minnesota offers. Now if these guys are so overrated and have only made 1 all star game combined, you guy don’t need them to push the Wild over the edge of winning a playoff round for the what 3rd time in franchise history.

That would be extremely stupid for any team to do.

 

[AKL]

Brock has outproduced him without having Crosby on his line like Guentzel did.

Brock Nelson has outproduced...Jake Guentzel?

Since the 2021-22 season (that means all of the 30+ goal years Isles fans keep pointing to):

Guentzel: 247 games played, 119 goals, 260 points
Nelson: 266 games played, 117 goals, 221 points

And since you seem to think it's all Crosby, since leaving Pittsburgh:

Guentzel: 43 games played, 21 goals, 51 points

Which is a full season pace of 40 goals, 97 points

There is no universe in which Nelson should be considered anywhere near as good as Guentzel or receive as much in a trade.

 

[miscs75]

That would be extremely stupid for any team to do.

Im not saying it’s smart but teams will be a 2027 1st and a prospect if Brock was made available. Lou is also the GM and I doubt he’ll move him unless the Isles are in lottery contention by February.

 

[piqued]

Stars fans periodically checking this thread because Dallas was mentioned

 

[miscs75]

Brock Nelson has outproduced...Jake Guentzel?

Since the 2021-22 season (that means all of the 30+ goal years Isles fans keep pointing to):

Guentzel: 247 games played, 119 goals, 260 points
Nelson: 266 games played, 117 goals, 221 points

And since you seem to think it's all Crosby, since leaving Pittsburgh:

Guentzel: 43 games played, 21 goals, 51 points

Which is a full season pace of 40 goals, 97 points

There is no universe in which Nelson should be considered anywhere near as good as Guentzel or receive as much in a trade.

Positive about that one? Teams will push for the center over the winger usually, especially for depth purposes. To try and say Guentzel is light years ahead of Brock Nelson is one terrible take. Watch the two players and the game play instead of just goals. Trying to score on an offensively inept team is substantially harder than playing on a team who actually scores at a high rate.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Joe Colborne (Kaberle)
Roland McKeown (Sekera)
Marko Dano (Ladd)
Zach Sanford (Shattenkirk)
Vitaly Abramov (Duchene)
Kevin Bahl (Hall)
Owen Tippett (Giroux)
Aatu Raty (Horvat)
Hunter Brzustewicz (Lindholm)
Vasily Ponomarev/Ville Koivunen (Guentzel)

That's the type of prospect you see in a major rental trade. Think somewhat recent 1st rounder losing momentum as an asset or a more recent Day 2 riser. Nothing that wows you.

...

On the flip side, Taransenko 2024 has no business being mentioned in this thread. That's a winger that leveraged a full NTC to only go to Florida (Link). Flat out not comparable to Nelson.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Joe Colborne (Kaberle)
Roland McKeown (Sekera)
Marko Dano (Ladd)
Zach Sanford (Shattenkirk)
Vitaly Abramov (Duchene)
Kevin Bahl (Hall)
Owen Tippett (Giroux)
Aatu Raty (Horvat)
Hunter Brzustewicz (Lindholm)
Vasily Ponomarev/Ville Koivunen (Guentzel)

That's the type of prospect you see in a major rental trade. Think somewhat recent 1st rounder losing momentum as an asset or a more recent Day 2 riser. Nothing that wows you.

...

On the flip side, Taransenko 2024 has no business being mentioned in this thread. That's a winger that leveraged a full NTC to only go to Florida (Link). Flat out not comparable to Nelson.

Tippett panned out in a major way, but it kind of shows that rental prospects are on the low-probability side of things.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Lambos + Kumps and a 2nd

 

[roon]

I speak as someone who doesn't really need to hear any more about how Minnesota won't offer a first rounder for a rental.

Brock Nelson currently has 4 more points than Freddy Gaudreau. 1st? GTFO of here.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

When the leafs traded for Orielly a few years back we gave up:

2023 1st (Leafs)
2023 3rd (Senators)
2024 2nd (Leafs)
Gaudette (Ahler)
Abramov (Kinda long shot prospect)

I’m not including the 4th as it was with Minnesota for dual retention, but this deal also gave us aciari, who was a valuable 4th liner, so maybe his value is the 3rd and long shot prospect.

Whether we underplayed, overpaid, or fairly paid, this was the deal for a guy pacing for 38 points that season, 60 the season before and 80 the season before.

I guess it’ll depend on the market, but if that is the going rate I can’t see how the deal will be anymore or less than either teams 1st + an ok prospect.

 

[roon]

When the leafs traded for Orielly a few years back we gave up:

2023 1st (Leafs)
2023 3rd (Senators)
2024 2nd (Leafs)
Gaudette (Ahler)
Abramov (Kinda long shot prospect)

I’m not including the 4th as it was with Minnesota for dual retention, but this deal also gave us aciari, who was a valuable 4th liner, so maybe his value is the 3rd and long shot prospect.

Whether we underplayed, overpaid, or fairly paid, this was the deal for a guy pacing for 38 points that season, 60 the season before and 80 the season before.

I guess it’ll depend on the market, but if that is the going rate I can’t see how the deal will be anymore or less than either teams 1st + an ok prospect.

You also had a GM trading for his job. He loaded up to try and save his bacon in TOR...and failed.

I don't think something like that sets the market for anything.

 

[Glorydays22]

This year's second and next year second. A whole host of good prospects and intriguing prospects.

Tarasenko went for a 3rd and change last season.

Tanev went for a third and a prospect.

This year's draft is weak besides the top half of the 1st round.
Way off in value....anyway I'm tired of talking about this. Let's see what happens at the TDL....

 

[Aashir Mallik]

You also had a GM trading for his job. He loaded up to try and save his bacon in TOR...and failed.

I don't think something like that sets the market for anything.

Maybe, but I’m just looking into the past to see if their are familiar trades that have happened

I just think their are two extremes that I’ve read here, some fans who claim a first + some prospect isn’t enough because the 1st will be in the mid 20’s so a top prospect must be in play while others claim that he’s not going to get a 1st.

I think his value is somewhere in the middle, at the 1st + something or 2 2nds. That seems to be the going rate for most rentals who are top 6 players he’s a very useful player, but is having a bit of a slower year, is an upcoming UFA and is a bit on the older side.

 

[seabass45]

Maybe, but I’m just looking into the past to see if their are familiar trades that have happened

I just think their are two extremes that I’ve read here, some fans who claim a first + some prospect isn’t enough because the 1st will be in the mid 20’s so a top prospect must be in play while others claim that he’s not going to get a 1st.

I think his value is somewhere in the middle, at the 1st + something or 2 2nds. That seems to be the going rate for most rentals who are top 6 players he’s a very useful player, but is having a bit of a slower year, is an upcoming UFA and is a bit on the older side.

Six first rounders were traded near the deadline last year, three of them for centers. Precedent is there, the question is which rentals would be worthy of that sort of trade for the upcoming deadline. But if Adam Henrique can return one...

 

[MNRube]

I get that Minnesota makes sense. Guerin picked Nelson for USA, Nelson is Minnesotan and good on the PK which the Wild need. A perfect fit on paper. But Guerin just spent all his expendable assets on Jiricek. It doesn’t make sense to employ a guy like Judd Brackett and then remove all his 1st round picks.

 

[impaaaaaact]

didnt realize u guys were the gms

As if you speak for the organization - lol

y'all realize how this website works right?

They're worth more than that. I mean over the past 6 years and 3 different head coaches, they've propelled the Isles to...let me check my notes...28th in the league in goals per game.

and you do realize it's a team sport? Not like there are 19 Brock nelsons out there. But you're probably right, they have little to offer to a team that in the last decade ... let me check my notes... has won 0 playoff rounds. Come to think of it no cup appearances in franchise history... ever, correct? Like, going back to the North Stars right.. so none in 60 years? But please, keep talking down all-star potential deadline acquisitions lmao. another first round exit, but hey we got him for free in the offseason!

Positive about that one? Teams will push for the center over the winger usually, especially for depth purposes. To try and say Guentzel is light years ahead of Brock Nelson is one terrible take. Watch the two players and the game play instead of just goals. Trying to score on an offensively inept team is substantially harder than playing on a team who actually scores at a high rate.

you gotta stop comparing nelson to guentzel man you're making us all look bad

 

[impaaaaaact]

Joe Colborne (Kaberle)
Roland McKeown (Sekera)
Marko Dano (Ladd)
Zach Sanford (Shattenkirk)
Vitaly Abramov (Duchene)
Kevin Bahl (Hall)
Owen Tippett (Giroux)
Aatu Raty (Horvat)
Hunter Brzustewicz (Lindholm)
Vasily Ponomarev/Ville Koivunen (Guentzel)

That's the type of prospect you see in a major rental trade. Think somewhat recent 1st rounder losing momentum as an asset or a more recent Day 2 riser. Nothing that wows you.

...

On the flip side, Taransenko 2024 has no business being mentioned in this thread. That's a winger that leveraged a full NTC to only go to Florida (Link). Flat out not comparable to Nelson.

Great post, thanks for compiling. Most of those were combined with a first right?

 

[impaaaaaact]

Stars fans periodically checking this thread because Dallas was mentioned

View attachment 944178

lmao but would honestly love to know what you would think a Dallas offer looks like. Rangers win a couple of games and the East looks pretty locked up

 

[impaaaaaact]

Personally think that Heidt holds more value than a late 1st this year. But hey, if the Islanders would prefer a pick instead who am I to stop them.

I would be fine to substitute Heidt for a first, and I think based on Big Daddy Kane's post previous deadline deals indicate that there would be a small + involved as well.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Great post, thanks for compiling. Most of those were combined with a first right?

All, with the exception of Guentzel.

The price is pretty established for Nelson. Late 1st + mildly interesting prospect. New York’s best hope for value is a middle of the pack team acting aggressively, like Columbus going last dance all in with Duchene in 2019 or the Islanders themselves trying to fight gravity with Horvat in 2023.

 

[AD Skinner]

The north stars played in the cup finals twice. In 81 against the islanders and 91 against the penguins

 

[impaaaaaact]

The north stars played in the cup finals twice. In 81 against the islanders and 91 against the penguins

I was setting that one up for the 81 lmao didn’t realize they went again. Different franchise anyway.

But yeah, the point stands. Greater than 0 chance Kaprizov walks soon so if that’s my team I probably want to maximize my chance to bring the cup to my state for the first time while he’s definitely here and in his prime. And if I’m sitting on a glut of prospects I’m probably not nitpicking value or trying to poke holes in a guy that has been averaging 35 goals a year and plays a 200 foot game.

If I’m Guerin I’m probably pushing my chips in the center this season. Having a couple of untouchable chips makes sense but at some point you have to give to get. If you’re not trading any of your top 5 or 6 prospects and don’t have a first you’re not receiving any difference making players, and you put yourself at risk to get bounced out in the first round again, which at this point should be fully unacceptable.

 

[SI]

Late to this thread -

But, I do not see a fit between Isles and Wild -
The Wild do not have 2025 1st, so not sure what the main piece the Wild could offer - a second and Ohgren or Heidt is not going to cut it. I think Carolina and Dallas could top that.