Which high end prospect? Also when was the last time a 33 year old soon to be UFA got that high of an offer?
LeBrun: Dallas and Minnesota interested in Brock Nelson
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miscs75
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Age aside, look at Brock’s goal scoring the past 3 seasons and what he’s projected for this season. Teams will pay for that and it’s not a mediocre pick with a prospect who’s overhyped. Guentzel and Ty Smith combined went for more than the Wild offer and Brock has outproduced him without having Crosby on his line like Guentzel did.
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Brock Nelson has outproduced...Jake Guentzel?
Since the 2021-22 season (that means all of the 30+ goal years Isles fans keep pointing to):
Guentzel: 247 games played, 119 goals, 260 points
Nelson: 266 games played, 117 goals, 221 points
And since you seem to think it's all Crosby, since leaving Pittsburgh:
Guentzel: 43 games played, 21 goals, 51 points
Which is a full season pace of 40 goals, 97 points
There is no universe in which Nelson should be considered anywhere near as good as Guentzel or receive as much in a trade.
miscs75
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Im not saying it’s smart but teams will be a 2027 1st and a prospect if Brock was made available. Lou is also the GM and I doubt he’ll move him unless the Isles are in lottery contention by February.
piqued
nos merentur hoc
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Stars fans periodically checking this thread because Dallas was mentioned
miscs75
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Positive about that one? Teams will push for the center over the winger usually, especially for depth purposes. To try and say Guentzel is light years ahead of Brock Nelson is one terrible take. Watch the two players and the game play instead of just goals. Trying to score on an offensively inept team is substantially harder than playing on a team who actually scores at a high rate.
Joe Colborne (Kaberle)
Roland McKeown (Sekera)
Marko Dano (Ladd)
Zach Sanford (Shattenkirk)
Vitaly Abramov (Duchene)
Kevin Bahl (Hall)
Owen Tippett (Giroux)
Aatu Raty (Horvat)
Hunter Brzustewicz (Lindholm)
Vasily Ponomarev/Ville Koivunen (Guentzel)
That's the type of prospect you see in a major rental trade. Think somewhat recent 1st rounder losing momentum as an asset or a more recent Day 2 riser. Nothing that wows you.
...
On the flip side, Taransenko 2024 has no business being mentioned in this thread. That's a winger that leveraged a full NTC to only go to Florida (Link). Flat out not comparable to Nelson.
Roland McKeown (Sekera)
Marko Dano (Ladd)
Zach Sanford (Shattenkirk)
Vitaly Abramov (Duchene)
Kevin Bahl (Hall)
Owen Tippett (Giroux)
Aatu Raty (Horvat)
Hunter Brzustewicz (Lindholm)
Vasily Ponomarev/Ville Koivunen (Guentzel)
That's the type of prospect you see in a major rental trade. Think somewhat recent 1st rounder losing momentum as an asset or a more recent Day 2 riser. Nothing that wows you.
...
On the flip side, Taransenko 2024 has no business being mentioned in this thread. That's a winger that leveraged a full NTC to only go to Florida (Link). Flat out not comparable to Nelson.
TheReelChuckFletcher
Former TheRillestPaulFenton; Harverd Alum
Tippett panned out in a major way, but it kind of shows that rental prospects are on the low-probability side of things.
Brock Nelson currently has 4 more points than Freddy Gaudreau. 1st? GTFO of here.
Aashir Mallik
Backcheck, Forecheck, Paycheque
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When the leafs traded for Orielly a few years back we gave up:
2023 1st (Leafs)
2023 3rd (Senators)
2024 2nd (Leafs)
Gaudette (Ahler)
Abramov (Kinda long shot prospect)
I’m not including the 4th as it was with Minnesota for dual retention, but this deal also gave us aciari, who was a valuable 4th liner, so maybe his value is the 3rd and long shot prospect.
Whether we underplayed, overpaid, or fairly paid, this was the deal for a guy pacing for 38 points that season, 60 the season before and 80 the season before.
I guess it’ll depend on the market, but if that is the going rate I can’t see how the deal will be anymore or less than either teams 1st + an ok prospect.
2023 1st (Leafs)
2023 3rd (Senators)
2024 2nd (Leafs)
Gaudette (Ahler)
Abramov (Kinda long shot prospect)
I’m not including the 4th as it was with Minnesota for dual retention, but this deal also gave us aciari, who was a valuable 4th liner, so maybe his value is the 3rd and long shot prospect.
Whether we underplayed, overpaid, or fairly paid, this was the deal for a guy pacing for 38 points that season, 60 the season before and 80 the season before.
I guess it’ll depend on the market, but if that is the going rate I can’t see how the deal will be anymore or less than either teams 1st + an ok prospect.
You also had a GM trading for his job. He loaded up to try and save his bacon in TOR...and failed.
I don't think something like that sets the market for anything.
Glorydays22
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This year's draft is weak besides the top half of the 1st round.
Way off in value....anyway I'm tired of talking about this. Let's see what happens at the TDL....
Aashir Mallik
Backcheck, Forecheck, Paycheque
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Maybe, but I’m just looking into the past to see if their are familiar trades that have happened
I just think their are two extremes that I’ve read here, some fans who claim a first + some prospect isn’t enough because the 1st will be in the mid 20’s so a top prospect must be in play while others claim that he’s not going to get a 1st.
I think his value is somewhere in the middle, at the 1st + something or 2 2nds. That seems to be the going rate for most rentals who are top 6 players he’s a very useful player, but is having a bit of a slower year, is an upcoming UFA and is a bit on the older side.
Six first rounders were traded near the deadline last year, three of them for centers. Precedent is there, the question is which rentals would be worthy of that sort of trade for the upcoming deadline. But if Adam Henrique can return one...
