leeroggy
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- Jan 3, 2010
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LeBrun: Dallas and Minnesota interested in Brock Nelson
- Thread starter impaaaaaact
- Start date
Retention and/or cap balancing has been so ubiquitous in recent years that the absence of it probably subtracts value more than the inclusion adds it. Last year, Guentzel, Hanifin, Lindholm, Toffoli, Tarasenko, Mantha, Henrique, etc. all had some level of it. The biggest rental ticket without it was Zucker ($5.3 mil) and he was traded away for a soft return.
Maybe that changes with the cap spike, but until it does, the expectation should be that the Islanders will make the cap work for their trade partner just to get that 1st and B-prospect.
Maybe that changes with the cap spike, but until it does, the expectation should be that the Islanders will make the cap work for their trade partner just to get that 1st and B-prospect.
periferal
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Let me help you all out...
If Lou is still in charge, then Nelson (or any other veteran on the Isles roster) will NOT be dealt. His brain cannot conceive of a rebuild the last 40 years, and certainly not now at 82.
If Nelson (or any other veteran on the Isles roster) is traded by the deadline, then you know that Lou is not in control and going to be out of a job next summer with a very nice "retirement" ceremony.
If Lou is still in charge, then Nelson (or any other veteran on the Isles roster) will NOT be dealt. His brain cannot conceive of a rebuild the last 40 years, and certainly not now at 82.
If Nelson (or any other veteran on the Isles roster) is traded by the deadline, then you know that Lou is not in control and going to be out of a job next summer with a very nice "retirement" ceremony.
I know this seems to be a Nelson thread but what about Palmieri? What is a realistic ask for him?
I don’t think you’re gaining that much. It's not a full season deal, at that point Nelson is owed less than 3 mil and we can both retain some of that and involve another team in the shenanigans. But the price of that is like a mid-round pick. And given the cap situation for a lot of teams, it's less that we're doing them a favor by retaining, sometimes it's required to fit it under the cap.
(Sending another UFA contract back can also help, as you note in some of these deals)
I think we'd be aiming for a first rounder again, entirely possible we end up with something like a second and mid-round pick or something like that. Probably depends on who else is selling and who might be available to trade. 30 goals last year and on track for that again this year, absolutely no complaints with how he's played under Roy, been really good. Honestly the one bright spot of this season is that a few of the guys who are closer to UFA and in their mid 30s are playing really solid.
impaaaaaact
Registered User
Just for context, unextended 34 year old Adam Henrique (retained) went for a first last season after not posting 30 goals or 50 points for 10 years. He was maybe the 4th or 5th most coveted forward last season.
- Dec 10, 2012
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It wouldn't. Retention on a rental is more of a courtesy to facilitate a deal than something to drive value up significantly.
Maybe you can sweet talk an extra 3rd out of a team for that retention, but it doesn't make Ohgren available suddenly.
Personally the type prospect is probably more important than a first this year because this doesn’t seem like the deepest draft, and every single gm knows that. Personally (and I know that some of these values don’t match up) if we’re trading Nelson I’d want one of Ohgren (Wild), Bourque (Stars). I don’t think (Ritchie) or Lambert (Jets) are realistic. If any of these happen minimal picks would be attached but a first would not be need coming back.
Also, for the Wild fans that are worried about giving up Ohgren, you guys are actually really good this year. Ik everybody wants to build sustainability and keep prospects, but you have to capitalize on a prime Kaprizov year while he’s still affordable. You’re getting a quality 2C while giving up a potential 3LW in a year where you can really compete. God forbid, what happens if Kaprizov gets hurt next year? Are you just gonna push the timeline back another year? This stuff doesn’t just come around all the time and you really do have to take advantage of it. Plus I promise you if Nelson goes to Minnesota, he will absolutely re-sign if they’d want him back (which I’d assume they do). This isn’t just any ordinary rental, especially for the Wild with Guerin there also. Plus it’s not like he’s your top prospect, he’s at best your 3rd or 4th in your pool. I understand why the Stars may not wanna give up Bourque given that he’s already nhl ready and he’s higher up in their pool.
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For awhile here I kept seeing proposals where a team wanting prospects would expect a much better prospect because they were going to retain 50%. So a proposal that would normally get a mid-level guy would all of a sudden require a top five prospect because the selling team was eating 1-2 mil. We've seen a lot of trades where selling teams retain and there's been no sense that those teams are getting better prospects. Retaining on rentals is the norm because of the current cap climate, not because teams are doing a solid.
This is an ordinary rental.
- Dec 10, 2012
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*We're getting a quality 2C for 3 months while giving up a potential 2LW of up to 10+ years.
Without sacrificing futures for short term rentals, there will still be a timeline to push back to.
What happens if we trade Ohgren for Nelson and Kaprizov gets injured in game 80 of the season? Now we have to push back the timeline, we're out a top prospect, and Nelson is irrelevant.
This is why teams trade picks and lower grade prospects for all rentals, not top prospects.
Last year Toffoli got a 2nd and a 3rd
Hertl got a late 1st and a prospect taken in the late 1st
Jake Guentzel didn't even get a 1st, and still got a bunch of non-1st round prospects
Anthony Duclair got a 3rd and a prospect taken in the 3rd
Adam Henrique got a 1st and a 5th
Sean Monahan got a 1st and a 3rd
You are not getting a top prospect like Ohgren or Bourque for Nelson, let alone a 1st and a top prospect. You are getting a 1st and any of a number of pieces that you would consider "spare parts" at this point. That is how these deals always go.
I realize that a first wouldn’t come back with either of those guys, I’m just saying how everybody in the league realizes that a pick 25-32 is gonna be worth a lot less than usual. I was just saying how Lou’s preference should be focused on the quality of prospect instead of the pick, and I think he should be able to with multiple teams wanting him.
And respectfully, Nelson is better than every single one of those guys except Guentzel. And Guentzel didn’t get a first because of the quality of other pieces that were involved in the deal. Now if you take a first out of that deal, a better prospect is coming back in return.
This is all sort of moot since the Wild don’t have a first anyways, so they’d probably have to upgrade the quality of prospect anyways just to have a shot at Nelson.
You aren't getting ohgren from wild. for a rental they can sign as a free agent. Bill Guerin doesn't give up top prospects for rentals or a first
Teams don’t really take into consideration the quality of the draft like that. If a draft is seen as weak, you might try to push for the following year (in Minnesota’s case there’s no other option). They’d rather not deal very good former first round picks who they’ve invested time and energy in and have so far shown that they’re legit.
Who knows, maybe they’re able to do it, I would certainly inquire, but I’m skeptical.
Besides all this I wouldn’t assume the pick is one of the last five (with all due respect to Wild fans here, it’s the playoffs, anything can happen).
Nelson for Kreider. Nelson helps Rangers 5 on 5. Kreider more effective on special teams. Each has couple months to see how things work out, and can still be traded at deadline.
The Wild have Rossi-Eriksson Ek for top 6 centers. Nelson would likely be playing wing here.
They didn’t give up Ohgren for Jiricek. Doubtful they would for a rental.
Nelson would only be traded for futures and it would be at the deadline. This doesn’t do anything for us.
I think Nelson resigns with isles anytime now , something around 5 years 7 mil per .
cap would be very tight for 25-26 but lee , pageau will be gone for 26-27 .
if they are still in the WC race I can see them keeping Palmieri as their in house rental and having no choice but to let walk in the offseason due to cap .
cap would be very tight for 25-26 but lee , pageau will be gone for 26-27 .
if they are still in the WC race I can see them keeping Palmieri as their in house rental and having no choice but to let walk in the offseason due to cap .
JiricekSaveUs
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- May 2, 2018
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Not saying Nelson can’t return a good prospect, but the Wild, and their fans frankly, view Ohgren as a long term top 6 player. They’re not going to trade him for a rental.
miscs75
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- Jul 2, 2014
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No interest in making trades with the New York Jets of the NHL. Would rather see management write another “Tom Wilson is a meanie” letter.
- Oct 23, 2014
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