Curious about Patrik Stefan

[Smirnov2Chistov]

I understand that Stefan is seen as one of the major busts in NHL History. What I don’t understand is what kind of a player he was actually projected to be.

Besides his infamous missing the net video, I can’t find any clear scouting report on what or why the Thrashers were looking into him - hell Tim Connolley was drafted a few spots after and had a respectable career.

What’s really odd to me was his low point totals in the IHL and the Czech league was enough to garner that top overall spot. One could argue that the Thrashers could’ve selected someone else? Brendl?

 

[Michael Farkas]

Low point totals, maybe...but he was a point per game player in a pretty tough IHL league as an 18 year old, he played pro in the top Czech league at, what, 16? It's pretty insane that he was able to make that team at that age...I think he played the U18s at 15 years old.

He was thought to be a strong dead-puck-era center...not a great skater, but he was strong, he could hold on to the puck in traffic, he could dish...he had talent and good size...the real clincher was that he had been playing against men in pro leagues for three (!) seasons before his draft year, which is insane...and like I said, despite a number of concussions, torched the IHL (~AHL equivalent roughly) as a teenager...he was one of the few (only?) players that was deemed NHL ready right out of the box...

Tough to think of what he was supposed to be...maybe like if Mika Zibanejad flipped his goal scoring for passing ability...? Something like that maybe...

 

[seventieslord]

Yeah, I remember that he was seen as a really safe bet because of his proven ability to play with and against men, he was seen as a mature and NHL ready prospect. As for what he was said to be good at, I'd have to go back and check the THN reports from 21 years ago. But I do remember him being a pretty "blah" prospect, without a real standout ability, and the draft being a "blah" as a whole. Brendl was well-known to be boom or bust, like Alexandre Volchkov before him. He could be the next Pavel Bure or he could struggle to even make an impact in the minors.

 

[VancouverFanInNYC]

I remember the key comparable for Patrick Stefan at the time was another big, two-way and cerebral (albeit not speedy) center who was also Czech and highly-regarded. That was Radek Bonk, who followed a similar trajectory by excelling in the IHL before being drafted third overall by the Ottawa Senators. Although Bonk's career never off and his physical game devolved, he did become a respectable 60-70 point center. He shouldn't have been a #1 center on cup-winning team and it was probably the #1 or 2 reason (along with goaltending) the Senators made it far in the playoffs before Spezza arrived on the scene.

The 1999 draft is arguably one of the worst drafts ever (along with 1996) in retrospect but at the time, I recall it being a pretty talent-laden top-heavy draft. Maybe it was a lot of sensationalism / sexiness but the 'Twins factor' made the Sedins pretty special alongside their exploits in the SEL and Brendl scored 73 goals and 134 points in 68 games as a 17 year old in his first season in the WHL - let that sink in. Stefan wasn't necessarily the consensus #1 but among the top 4 and seen as the safest pick. He was already excelling among men an had good pedigree. He was 6'2'' and built (relative to the Sedins for instance) in a time where the NHL placed a huge emphasis on size. He was also Czech and this was at the pinnacle of Czech hockey.

Its unfortunate his career never took off and and all Atlanta could claim was that they boasted the highest drafted line of all time when Kovalchuk - Stefan - Heatly played a period together. But if you recall the draft coup that Brian Burke pulled off (in retrospect), there was not much Atlanta could do as they traded into the #1 spot with the promise to not nab a Sedin. The first round was pretty bad and although a few early-flyers (Barret Jackman, Martin Havlat, David Tanabe) looked good early, it was a minefield. Even the Sedins and Tim Connolly didn't hit their strides until the post lock-out 2005 season. The right move would have been to trade away their first rounder that year but it was not an option as 1999 was Atlanta's inaugural draft and the city needed some positive news.

 

[Brodeur]

There were concussion issues even at the time. Stefan's IHL numbers were pretty good for a teenager (35 points in 33 games in his draft year).

Petr Sykora missed a chunk of time in his draft year when he was playing in the IHL (29 points in 29 games). But in 1998-99, he was coming off of a 72 point season and looking like one of the top guys from the 1995 Draft.

Sergei Samsonov had 64 points in 73 games during his draft year while playing in the IHL. He won the Calder in 1997-98 and followed that up with a 25 goal season in 1998-99.

Borrowing from an old Stefan post: Patrik Stefan

DALLAS - There is not much question that 18-year-old Czech centre Patrik Stefan is the best player available in this year's NHL amateur draft.

At 6-1 1/2 and 205 pounds, he's big; he's also an outstanding puckhandler and passer, and he has tremendous on-ice vision and instincts. In fact, his coach and general manager with the Long Beach IceDogs of the International Hockey League, John Van Boxmeer, doesn't hesitate to compare Stefan to Pittsburgh Penguins star Jaromir Jagr. Unfortunately, when the draft rolls around on June 26 in Boston, teams won't be thinking about comparisons to Jagr, but rather to Pat LaFontaine. Like LaFontaine, whose career was cut short because of repeated concussions, Stefan may not even get off the ground because of concussions he has received since arriving from the Czech Republic two years ago to play in the IHL.

It's entirely possible that NHL teams will be so frightened about drafting a player who could be one concussion away from being knocked out of competitive hockey that Stefan may not even be picked in the first round. That was certainly the buzz when the NHL held a luncheon for seven of the top prospects yesterday.

1999 was one of those years where there wasn't a consensus top pick, which allowed Vancouver to wheel and deal to get both Sedins. Brendl was already known to be one dimensional, but some thought he'd score enough to make it worth it. There were secondary concerns with what would happen if the Sedins were split up, although I think by the Draft they said they'd be okay playing on different teams.

Also a fun what if scenario for me since I share a birthday with Stefan, if he had been one day older he would have been eligible for the 1998 Draft instead. In that parallel universe, maybe Vancouver can't maneuver to get both Sedins?

And just because I can't pass up an excuse to post the birthday cake I had made that had Stefan on it:

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

their measurements on the backs of their hockey cards are not so far off, but from what i remember bonk was a really big strong guy while stefan was sort of just a little bigger than average?

not that either guy imposed their bodies on anyone, but at least there were times with hoss and arvedson that bonk was really sturdy on the cycle and won faceoffs. stefan as far as i remember was just kind of, there?

maybe alex svitov is a better stefan comp than bonk? bonk was like a holik that didn't happen.

 

[overpass]

their measurements on the backs of their hockey cards are not so far off, but from what i remember bonk was a really big strong guy while stefan was sort of just a little bigger than average?

not that either guy imposed their bodies on anyone, but at least there were times with hoss and arvedson that bonk was really sturdy on the cycle and won faceoffs. stefan as far as i remember was just kind of, there?

maybe alex svitov is a better stefan comp than bonk? bonk was like a holik that didn't happen.

Yeah, Bonk played very strong. Listed at 6'2 in a few places but I remember him being 6'3 and rock solid. He was the guy who Ottawa played against the huge dead puck era centres of the Eastern Conference in the early 00s. Lindros, Sundin, Holik, Keith Primeau, Yashin, Arnott...

Mike Fisher was listed as just a little smaller than Bonk, but I remember Fisher (at least young pre-lockout Mike Fisher) couldn't hold his ground physically against Mats Sundin and Bonk could.

 

[seventieslord]

Brendl scored 73 goals and 134 points in 68 games as a 17 year old in his first season in the WHL - let that sink in.

On that note: something I noticed today. Brendl really devolved in junior. 2.0 PPG in his draft year, 1.8 in his D+1 season, and just 1.5 in his D+2. This seems like it can't be very common for a high pick.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Low point totals, maybe...but he was a point per game player in a pretty tough IHL league as an 18 year old...and like I said, despite a number of concussions, torched the IHL (~AHL equivalent roughly) as a teenager...he was one of the few (only?) players that was deemed NHL ready right out of the box...

For younger fans who might not remember the era: the IHL was at the same level as the AHL, but the AHL was a far more developmentally-oriented league whereas the IHL was stocked with higher-paid veteran players.

This team wasn't necessarily representative of the entire league, but look how many former/future NHLer's played at least a cameo if not a full-season for the Chicago Wolves:
Chicago Wolves 1998-99 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

Three goalies who had played the majority of a season in the NHL!

An 18-year-old being a PPG in that league was perhaps comparable to doing the same in today's KHL. You had to figure, there's no way this guy's not ready to play in the NHL, partially because he's thriving against grizzled veterans who have been there and back.

 

[Terry Yake]

yeah 35 pts in 33 games as an 18 year old in the IHL is really good considering he was playing against experienced, veteran-type players

you also have to consider the situation he was drafted into. an expansion team that was awful and poorly managed right from the start virtually up until they moved to winnipeg. there couldn't have been a worse situation for a #1 pick to be drafted into and it no doubt messed up his development