Value of: Cozens to MN

[ctmagic]

“The Sabres may be ripe for the picking, and it’s sure telling that Wild pro scouts keep attending their games. Kelleher was in attendance Tuesday night when the Sabres rallied to beat the Anaheim Ducks with Cozens assisting on all three goals.”

-Russo

Wild trade tracker: 5 centers the Wild could pursue if Joel Eriksson Ek is out until the playoffs

Heading into the March 7 NHL trade deadline, The Athletic's Michael Russo and Joe Smith will have updates on all of the Wild rumblings.

www.nytimes.com

What’s a Cozens trade look like between MN-BUF? Russo also goes on to talk about how Cozens hasn’t been the same since getting punched by Hathaway two years ago. Wondering how much truth there is to that take.

Click to read more...

 

[Seachd]

To be clear, the article doesn’t say anything about a rumor involving Cozens to Minnesota.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

“The Sabres may be ripe for the picking, and it’s sure telling that Wild pro scouts keep attending their games. Kelleher was in attendance Tuesday night when the Sabres rallied to beat the Anaheim Ducks with Cozens assisting on all three goals.”

-Russo

Wild trade tracker: 5 centers the Wild could pursue if Joel Eriksson Ek is out until the playoffs

Heading into the March 7 NHL trade deadline, The Athletic's Michael Russo and Joe Smith will have updates on all of the Wild rumblings.

www.nytimes.com

What’s a Cozens trade look like between MN-BUF? Russo also goes on to talk about how Cozens hasn’t been the same since getting punched by Hathaway two years ago. Wondering how much truth there is to that take.

In a vacuum, the value should be something like a first and mid-prospect. My opinion of Cozens seems to be lower than most, though. He's nearing 2 full seasons since his big year and has regressed. Not to mention he carries a bad contract (producing at this level).

 

[truthbluth]

“The Sabres may be ripe for the picking, and it’s sure telling that Wild pro scouts keep attending their games. Kelleher was in attendance Tuesday night when the Sabres rallied to beat the Anaheim Ducks with Cozens assisting on all three goals.”

-Russo

Wild trade tracker: 5 centers the Wild could pursue if Joel Eriksson Ek is out until the playoffs

Heading into the March 7 NHL trade deadline, The Athletic's Michael Russo and Joe Smith will have updates on all of the Wild rumblings.

www.nytimes.com

What’s a Cozens trade look like between MN-BUF? Russo also goes on to talk about how Cozens hasn’t been the same since getting punched by Hathaway two years ago. Wondering how much truth there is to that take.

A) this is speculation, not a rumor
B) cozens has NOT been the same since getting concussed by Hathaway, but he’s starting to regain that old form of late.
C) Cozens is only available for a 1 for 1 type trade. Not a good partner with Minnesota.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

To be clear, the article doesn’t say anything about a rumor involving Cozens to Minnesota.

Yep...should be changed to "value of"

 

[BagHead]

In a vacuum, the value should be something like a first and mid-prospect. My opinion of Cozens seems to be lower than most, though. He's nearing 2 full seasons since his big year and has regressed. Not to mention he carries a bad contract (producing at this level).

I haven't been watching him at all, so I have to speak strictly from a stat wataching perspective. It appears he's now playing a notably more physical game than he was when putting up bigger numbers (0.6 hits per game in his first three years, 1.8 in the last two). He's shooting a little less (by 0.3 shots per game), but that's not enough of a change to worry me from this perspective. His shot % has been cut by 6%, so he either got lucky a lot in his 31 goal campaign, or has been getting unlucky since - I'm inclined to believe the former since it's the outlier when looking his career.

So, from this, it appears he's playing a heavier physical game, while playing the same offensive game but getting less lucky than he did in '22-23. Do the stats tell the truth here, or has his game changed in some way the stats don't allude to?

 

[Zman5778]

I haven't been watching him at all, so I have to speak strictly from a stat wataching perspective. It appears he's now playing a notably more physical game than he was when putting up bigger numbers (0.6 hits per game in his first three years, 1.8 in the last two). He's shooting a little less (by 0.3 shots per game), but that's not enough of a change to worry me from this perspective. His shot % has been cut by 6%, so he either got lucky a lot in his 31 goal campaign, or has been getting unlucky since - I'm inclined to believe the former since it's the outlier when looking his career.

So, from this, it appears he's playing a heavier physical game, while playing the same offensive game but getting less lucky than he did in '22-23. Do the stats tell the truth here, or has his game changed in some way the stats don't allude to?

Cozens story, briefly:

Broke out in the summer of 22 with an excellent world championships then followed it up with 31 goals in 22/23 and signed a huge extension over the summer. Made it his mission to become a perennial 40-goal scorer. Ooops.

That was very much the wrong career choice for a guy who should basically be Jeff Carter v2.0 (yes, I know Carter hit 46 once). He basically got lost in the woods last year and the start of this year.

Seems like Lindy has finally gotten through to him to return to his straight-ahead, physical, somewhat PITA style though the production hasn't necessarily matched his play in the last 20 or so games.

What Buffalo wants for Cozens:

We do NOT want prospects or picks. Period. Ideally if we're trading Cozens, we're attaching stuff to him to upgrade his position OR attaching stuff to him to get a legit top 4 RHD that can actually play defense and then using Byram or Power to re-coup a legit two-way center. So.....what does Minnesota have that interests Buffalo that is reasonably moveable? Not much. Their guys without NTCs aren't moving (Boldy/Rossi/etc) or don't really interest Buffalo at all. I don't see much of a match between Minny and Buffalo if Cozens is involved.

My bet is that if Minny is heavily scouting us -- it's for a return of either Zucker or Greenway

 

[north21]

Hard to see Greenway coming back but wouldn't mind zucker.

 

[Chainshot]

Hey @Fezzy126 do you mind if I use your data dive here?

 

[Chainshot]

Since the end of the 13-game losing streak, Cozens' metrics have been great, all while playing center:

View attachment 983279

He's been elite over the past month as well. The individual scoring isn't quite where it needs to be, but he's been good at 5v5 - tied for 60th in the league over that span. The slow start was a thing, but he's starting to figure his game out and been very good for a while now. I mentioned this earlier in the year - I think deploying him with some vets instead of letting him flounder with with a bunch of kids has really helped him a great deal.

I think it's time to pivot from "we need a better player" to "what needs to change with his offseason program/preparation".

</snip>

I get that people are generally down on the guy, but he's been markedly better for a while now. As for Russo, "ripe for the picking" is amusing commentary from someone who clearly isn't paying any attention to what the team he's saying are "ripe" might need or want. But it's that sort of season - already saw it with SN gibberish about Tuch to various places for f*** all and the regular "oh hey, mid prospect, late first and some salary" type offers on HF.

 

[Djp]

In a vacuum, the value should be something like a first and mid-prospect.

False. He is not a rental player of 1+ yr or less. I know we many like him and are willing to low ball.

Hes traded, it's a hockey trade of current players, not prospect.

My opinion of Cozens seems to be lower than most, though. He's nearing 2 full seasons since his big year and has regressed. Not to mention he carries a bad contract (producing at this level).

After his last yr of elc... he put up 30g


23/24 played injured for much of tje yr. He also lok st confidence. Everyone on the sabres dropped in scoring. PP fell from top 10 to bottom 5.

This year he started i a slump. He had many good chances but got snakebitten. On top of that his young linemates also started slow. Hes gotten better as the sesson has gone on

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

False. He is not a rental player of 1+ yr or less. I know we many like him and are willing to low ball.

Hes traded, it's a hockey trade of current players, not prospect.

After his last yr of elc... he put up 30g


23/24 played injured for much of tje yr. He also lok st confidence. Everyone on the sabres dropped in scoring. PP fell from top 10 to bottom 5.

This year he started i a slump. He had many good chances but got snakebitten. On top of that his young linemates also started slow. Hes gotten better as the sesson has gone on

That's why I said "in a vacuum"...specific needs aside, I think that's his value. You're conviently leaving out that he's due over $7 mil a year for the next few years. Not a good contract considering all the excuses you included in your assessment.

 

[Fezzy126]

Any "rumor" (or speculation in this case) that involves strictly futures coming back to Buffalo is nonsense, unless it's for a pending UFA that has expressed no interest in resigning. To date, neither of the Sabres' pending UFAs (Greenway, Zucker) have done so.

The Sabres are perpetually the youngest team in the league, and their over-abundance of youth has been their biggest roadblock to any sort of sustained success.

To top it all off, Cozens wasn't right for most of last year after the Hathaway fight, he started extremely slow this year as many young players do after a coaching change. But he's now playing with more physicality than ever, faceoffs are up, and the scoring is starting to come.

Why on earth would the Sabres trade him now?

 

[Fjordsen]

Wild don't have much that would be of interest to Buffalo, and the pieces that would be of interest the Wild probably won't trade.

Why on earth would the Sabres trade him now?

Money Terry

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

Makes no sense for Buffalo to sell low on Cozens. They have the fewest points in the East. Everyone knows they are in the middle of a long rebuild. Is Cozens playing up to his contract? Of course not. Is Cozens’ contract hurting Buffalo? Also no. Keep him, let the youth continue to develop. Next year the goal should be to be within reasonable reach of a playoff spot around the TDL.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I wonder if Guerin (reportedly) not wanting to pay Rossi more than Boldy might toss a wrench into things.

 

[Hockeyfan200]

I wonder if Guerin (reportedly) not wanting to pay Rossi more than Boldy might toss a wrench tossed into things.

I mean I think even if Rossi gets traded, it wouldn’t be until after season is over! He’s our 1C right now