OT: COVID-19- March 17 2020 - No politics! Read post #1

[PromisedLand]

The entire country is not Toronto, and not everyone works in office towers.

Yup. Based on the data some provincial economies are more dependent on other sectors unlike Ontario

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl...0040201&pickMembers[0]=2.1&pickMembers[1]=3.1

 

[PromisedLand]

I was thinking of the U.S. There's a number of folks here talking about cuts to the entitlement programs.

Here's some info from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Truth No. 5 Not a single major entitlement program is projected to be financially solvent 20 years from now.

• The trust fund for the Social Security Disability Insurance program will be exhausted in just three years.
• The trust fund for Medicare Part A, which pays for hospital services, will go bankrupt in 13 years.
• Social Security will be unable to pay full benefits beginning in 2033, at which time recipients will see a 23% cut in benefits.

Oh man I wasn't aware of their scenario. That sucks for them!

 

[Kiwi]

I am sure in the states with IRS, BLS and BEA and in Canada with CRA and Statistics Canada; they can use the demographic infomration: Income (family, single) and family size (single, dependents) and come up with a plan to make arrnagements of pay based on the data.

Whether they do that or not is not sure.

Easy way to prorate this analysis to use the most recent CENSUS information to arrange payments where all level of governments can partner up in delivering the dollars.

OR

they can do what France just did.

It is a global pandemic so IMO the economic impact will be felt by all anyway; question is when the governments finance this by borrowing who are they borrowing from?

Print money? it will be a pain in the ass on the other end when we come out of this but I don't think governments care right now with the amount of panic were seeing

That's a problem for another day

Nobody will be in a position to buy debt if this continues for any length of time

 

[Kiwi]

I was thinking of the U.S. There's a number of folks here talking about cuts to the entitlement programs.

Here's some info from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Truth No. 5 Not a single major entitlement program is projected to be financially solvent 20 years from now.

• The trust fund for the Social Security Disability Insurance program will be exhausted in just three years.
• The trust fund for Medicare Part A, which pays for hospital services, will go bankrupt in 13 years.
• Social Security will be unable to pay full benefits beginning in 2033, at which time recipients will see a 23% cut in benefits.

Their ****** but they were before this kicked off, their spending a trillion dollars a year more than they bring in, have 22 trillion dollars in debt and all their entitlements are basically bankrupt or going bankrupt

And before everybody gets to excited about the US getting ****** over this is going to effect all our economies as well, very very badly

 

[4thline]

Yup. Based on the data some provincial economies are more dependent on other sectors unlike Ontario

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610040201&pickMembers[0]=2.1&pickMembers[1]=3.1

It's even more granular than province vs. province. Think Region vs. region and sector vs. sector. With social distancing and hygiene measures in place there are large swathes (both in terms of region and economic sector) of the province that can maintain operation. Many that can go a days work without ever being within 10 feet of anyone, many more that would never be in contact with more than 2-3 people.

 

[PromisedLand]

Print money? it will be a pain in the ass on the other end when we come out of this but I don't think governments care right now with the amount of panic were seeing

That's a problem for another day

Nobody will be in a position to buy debt if this continues for any length of time

ECON 101 is that if we print money we devalue the currency;

but current climate is global; I assume every country will print money.

Another problem with printing money is "inflation"; in think G8/G20 countries will have to come together to have a similar plan when printing money certain things will be "off-limits" -> example housing; if there is more money in the market house prices get bid up; so some of these scenarios have to be well thought out before hand.

But in principle yes; printing money is one other option.

Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve just cut interest rates in anticipation of economic slowdown; cutting interest rates is another way of "pumping money" in the economy

Here is hoping some folks who are sitting on the pool of money already do not go on buying houses because interest rates are low and then re-sell it at a huge margin; that is house inflation and majority of the Canadians will not be able to afford such price escalation. Toronto and Vancouver are already hot beds for housing market in Canada we don't want it to become even more hot

 

[PromisedLand]

It's even more granular than province vs. province. Think Region vs. region and sector vs. sector. With social distancing and hygiene measures in place there are large swathes (both in terms of region and economic sector) of the province that can maintain operation. Many that can go a days work without ever being within 10 feet of anyone, many more that would never be in contact with more than 2-3 people.

Yup. There is sector data in that link I provided you. Certain jurisdictional economies are heavily dependent on different kind of economic activity than Toronto.

That said, in principle, I do think (my opinion) that getting "healthy" is more important; no point in risking your health/life for the "economy"; I mean construction workers, for example, aren't going to make millions if they worked in this pandemic; but if they adhere to the rules; stay healthy they can fully get back to work later on; if they continue to work now and get sick; or their lungs get impacted (as one study from HK has shown); they lower their chances of doing physical labour with same physical ability.

Overall picture needs to be painted.

If it was upto me; I would classify Canadian demographics into 3 categories

1. Not at Risk
2. At Risk
3. TBD (to be decided)

1. Not at risk are the folks who can work from home and are still getting paid
2. At risk folks are the folks who cannot work from home and are not getting paid
3. TBD is analysis of the first case to see how people from first group transfer into the 2nd group as companies cannot afford to pay them any longer (ex: small tech firms, etc...)

I would role out the money to the 2nd group immediately; and hope that we get out of the crisis fast enough before the first group starts transitioning to 2nd group

 

[JT AM da real deal]

ECON 101 is that if we print money we devalue the currency;

but current climate is global; I assume every country will print money.

Another problem with printing money is "inflation"; in think G8/G20 countries will have to come together to have a similar plan when printing money certain things will be "off-limits" -> example housing; if there is more money in the market house prices get bid up; so some of these scenarios have to be well thought out before hand.

But in principle yes; printing money is one other option.

Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve just cut interest rates in anticipation of economic slowdown; cutting interest rates is another way of "pumping money" in the economy

Here is hoping some folks who are sitting on the pool of money already do not go on buying houses because interest rates are low and then re-sell it at a huge margin; that is house inflation and majority of the Canadians will not be able to afford such price escalation. Toronto and Vancouver are already hot beds for housing market in Canada we don't want it to become even more hot

Let's be honest Toronto is already WAY overpriced for real estate. But dropping interest rates will keep da feeding frenzy going up. and da banks want more paper and interest.
Da banks don't do small business loads very well. I wonder why?
It has to be the GOV printing more money and accumulating debt. As Trump says who cares about da deficit. No one even knows what it is.

 

[Kiwi]

ECON 101 is that if we print money we devalue the currency;

but current climate is global; I assume every country will print money.

Another problem with printing money is "inflation"; in think G8/G20 countries will have to come together to have a similar plan when printing money certain things will be "off-limits" -> example housing; if there is more money in the market house prices get bid up; so some of these scenarios have to be well thought out before hand.

But in principle yes; printing money is one other option.

Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve just cut interest rates in anticipation of economic slowdown; cutting interest rates is another way of "pumping money" in the economy

Here is hoping some folks who are sitting on the pool of money already do not go on buying houses because interest rates are low and then re-sell it at a huge margin; that is house inflation and majority of the Canadians will not be able to afford such price escalation. Toronto and Vancouver are already hot beds for housing market in Canada we don't want it to become even more hot

The theory is if you can't find buyers for your debt you print money and buy it yourself, of course it has some pretty serious ramifications down the road but I'm presuming that if it comes to that governments will just worry about the now and deal with that then

You can cut taxes and intrest rates but if the economy is going into a major economic slowdown/death spiral I don't think that's going to make much of a difference to the fundamental problems were facing economically

I'm old enough to remember inflation, when I was a kid 35-40 years ago house loans had 20% interest rates and the banks wouldn't lend to virtually anybody, it was baaad

 

[PromisedLand]

Let's be honest Toronto is already WAY overpriced for real estate. But dropping interest rates will keep da feeding frenzy going up. and da banks want more paper and interest.
Da banks don't do small business loads very well. I wonder why?
It has to be the GOV printing more money and accumulating debt. As Trump says who cares about da deficit. No one even knows what it is.

If I got into answering this question; it will involve politics and policies LOL so I guess I will just say: "Lets all get healthy and lets all get out of this pandemic healthy and hopefully wiser"

 

[DenisSamson3]

People complaing about the website crashing.

 

[4thline]

Yup. There is sector data in that link I provided you. Certain jurisdictional economies are heavily dependent on different kind of economic activity than Toronto.

That said, in principle, I do think (my opinion) that getting "healthy" is more important; no point in risking your health/life for the "economy"; I mean construction workers, for example, aren't going to make millions if they worked in this pandemic; but if they adhere to the rules; stay healthy they can fully get back to work later on; if they continue to work now and get sick; or their lungs get impacted (as one study from HK has shown); they lower their chances of doing physical labour with same physical ability.

Where I differ is that I feel that this is a false binary. With the right rules and adherence to them there would be little to no increased risk of continuing operation. Frankly there's more risk in people stretching distancing rules and continuing with home based social lives.

 

[PromisedLand]

The theory is if you can't find buyers for your debt you print money and buy it yourself, of course it has some pretty serious ramifications down the road but I'm presuming that if it comes to that governments will just worry about the now and deal with that then

You can cut taxes and intrest rates but if the economy is going into a major economic slowdown/death spiral I don't think that's going to make much of a difference to the fundamental problems were facing economically

I'm old enough to remember inflation, when I was a kid 35-40 years ago house loans had 20% interest rates and the banks wouldn't lend to virtually anybody, it was baaad

I mean there are two ways the dollars can be made avaialble:

1. Give money directly to people and let them decide how to spend

OR

2. Give money directly to the groceries/rental-office/medical-stores/mortgages/utilities (basically essentials only)

The thing is if they choose option 1; what is the guarantee that people are not going to spend money on non-essentials like buying a new jackets etc....

It is a mess really!!!

But yea printing money is an option as long as every country decides to do so that way; relative exchange rates don't get impacted significantly and no other country has more "trade power" than the other

 

[PromisedLand]

Where I differ is that I feel that this is a false binary. With the right rules and adherence to them there would be little to no increased risk of continuing operation. Frankly there's more risk in people stretching distancing rules and continuing with home based social lives.

I cannot comment much on this until more scientific evidence presents itself. At the moment we are walking in blind and hoping to contain the spread. We don't know what the long term effects are or how this virus even behaves/mutates with different strands in different countries.

I guess it depends on one's own circumstances. I value "health" more than "money"; for some people money may be more important.

 

[DenisSamson3]

I like that this thread has remained pretty civil while we all can learn something. We got businesd, health, survival strategies and even psychology. One of the best corona threads on hfboards.

 

[yubbers]

I cannot comment much on this until more scientific evidence presents itself. At the moment we are walking in blind and hoping to contain the spread. We don't know what the long term effects are or how this virus even behaves/mutates with different strands in different countries.

I guess it depends on one's own circumstances. I value "health" more than "money"; for some people money may be more important.

You think it's a coincidence Italy is broke af and have been hammered by this?
Money is important. Balance is necessary.

 

[yubbers]

I like that this thread has remained pretty civil while we all can learn something. We got businesd, health, survival strategies and even psychology. One of the best corona threads on hfboards.

all it took was a pandemic to cool the partisan waters :p

 

[Kiwi]

I mean there are two ways the dollars can be made avaialble:

1. Give money directly to people and let them decide how to spend

OR

2. Give money directly to the groceries/rental-office/medical-stores/mortgages/utilities (basically essentials only)

The thing is if they choose option 1; what is the guarantee that people are not going to spend money on non-essentials like buying a new jackets etc....

It is a mess really!!!

But yea printing money is an option as long as every country decides to do so that way; relative exchange rates don't get impacted significantly and no other country has more "trade power" than the other

I'd have thought the best option would be to continue with existing welfare programs (since there already in place) and as people need them they can use that for assistance

Then to prop up business and home mortgages until things improve by working with the banks

The welfare side of it should help the less fortunate who can use it to help with rent and food and the other side of it should help the middle class who are a major tax base and ecomomic driver when this does end

 

[PromisedLand]

You think it's a coincidence Italy is broke af and have been hammered by this?
Money is important. Balance is necessary.

If you dont have your health; what you gonna do with all the money or heck even make money?

I am not saying you should value health more than money or vice-versa. You value what you want to value however you want to value

but at least that is my POV that if we as a society are not not "healthy"; we cannot work to 100% ability and cannot compete in a globalized world; to make the money to begin with anyway

 

[Big Muddy]

Their ****** but they were before this kicked off, their spending a trillion dollars a year more than they bring in, have 22 trillion dollars in debt and all their entitlements are basically bankrupt or going bankrupt

And before everybody gets to excited about the US getting ****** over this is going to effect all our economies as well, very very badly

Yes, they are facts from U.S. Chamber of Commerce (well known numbers & could be found from a variety of sources) of the accumulated debt (over many years) in the U.S.

Debt was increased $1 trillion this year, but will go up at least another $1 trillion with the various new bills (assuming they will pass, which is likely) in response to COVID-19. That's before another round (the 3rd round) of stimulus that most are expecting.

 

[Kiwi]

Yes, they are facts from U.S. Chamber of Commerce (well known numbers & could be found from a variety of sources) of the accumulated debt (over many years) in the U.S. Debt was increased $1 trillion this year, but will go up at least another $1 trillion with the various new bills (assuming they will pass, which is likely) in response to COVID-19. That's before another round (the 3rd round) of stimulus that most are expecting.

Oh yeah, their debt burden is insane and is about to get much, much worse in the very near future

With the world economy as interconnected as it is and the US being the biggest economy in it this is going to have huge knock on effects for everybody in the world in a hugely negative way

The thing is how can you stop buying their debt though? Even if they can't pay it back because they will take us with them when they do go on, it would make Greece look like happy fun time at Disney land

 

[Big Muddy]

People complaing about the website crashing.

Got to wonder what the unemployment number will go to. Even with federal stimulus, I'd still wonder.

 

[thewave]

Got to wonder what the unemployment number will go to. Even with federal stimulus, I'd still wonder.

I think there is a very distinct possibility that we are witnessing the fall of an empire. I think it depends how the banks and countries internationally respond in the next month or so that will tell you everything we all need to know. I hope that's not the case, I mean they can print obviously so it may be a while and not for certain. It's not good.

The old saying was... If the USA sneezes, Canada catches a cold.
We are finding out... If China catches a cold, USA __________.

 

[Big Muddy]

Oh yeah, their debt burden is insane and is about to get much, much worse in the very near future

With the world economy as interconnected as it is and the US being the biggest economy in it this is going to have huge knock on effects for everybody in the world in a hugely negative way

The thing is how can you stop buying their debt though? Even if they can't pay it back because they will take us with them when they do go on, it would make Greece look like happy fun time at Disney land

Many economists questioned the lowering of corporate and individual tax rates given that the state of the economy was good at the time. That increased the debt by the first trillion dollars. The thinking was that the Fed should keep their powder dry for a downturn. Many people thought that the market was some kind of indicator of the economy. Market got a big boost from the corporate buy backs, but more importantly, GDP is the metric used to measure the rate/growth of the economy. In 2019, the GDP went back to pre-2016 levels.

 

[deletethis]

ECON 101 is that if we print money we devalue the currency;

I can get in over my head fast with these economics discussions but I believe that's one of the reasons why these Western nations with their huge debts seek to accelerate their working age population growth through immigration.