OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) thread
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Thirty One
Safe is safe.
- Dec 28, 2003
- 28,981
- 24,357
So where is the catch-all thread for my wild takes and conspiracy theories?
Amazing Kreiderman
Registered User
- Apr 11, 2011
- 45,070
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Gardner McKay
RIP, Jimmy.
Oscar Lindberg
Registered User
I’m going to my last game of the season next week, I really hope they don’t bar fans from attending
Gardner McKay
RIP, Jimmy.
That would be terrible. I wonder what they will do for ticket refunds? I'll be interested to see what the Sharks do.
GoAwayGiannone
Registered User
I'm pretty curious how this will affect undrafted prospects since they seem to be shutting down some leagues in Europe. Imagine if this happened early last year? Kakko might not have been such an easy choice for 2nd overall.
Crease
Chief Justice of the HFNYR Court
- Jul 12, 2004
- 24,767
- 27,709
This is going to go around the city. There's just so many people coming and going, and New Yorkers are generally selfish people who don't like being told what to do. I'm not worried about myself (healthy 30 year old male with good insurance coverage) but I am worried for the elderly and immunocompromised. My sister and cousin fall into the latter category. I'm not sure what the answer is other than to follow self-quarantine protocol to the best one can if they have reason to believe they've been exposed.
- Sep 1, 2010
- 10,036
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MyLoveIsBlue
Registered User
- Feb 20, 2015
- 2,502
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These are NOT my words, but are from someone I know works in medicine. I found his thoughts interesting:
Coronavirus is not a new virus. There are several strains in circulation every year. This is a new strain. Like other cold viruses, it mutates, so nobody ever has full immunity. Thats why flu vaccines have low effectiveness. Thats why people get the flu and colds repeatedly through their lifetimes.
People seem to have little understanding of how our immune system works. Most of us don't need antibodies to fight off a cold or flu virus. Our innate immune system is the first line of defense and for most people sufficient to defeat the virus. Antibodies take up to 2 weeks to be produced in sufficient quantities after infection. While antibodies can help minimize symptoms after reinfection, if the new virus is sufficiently different, something called the original antigenic sin comes into play and can actually cause worse symptoms.
In older people, which are more severely affected by covid-19, an over reaction by the complement system of the innate system is responsible. Due to chronic inflammation due to aging the elderly have more active complement molecules than younger people. When antibodies are produced after a couple of weeks this actually amplifies the complement response and symptoms worsen, followed by death in some cases. Younger people who have no more humoral immunity than older people are not severely affected as they have less inflammation and complement molecules. Indeed young children's immune systems respond differently than adults as their innate immune system works to minimize inflammation.
Now, people like to recite the CFR. Unfortunately, the mortality rate must be calculated by deaths divided by total infections. Confirmed cases are not total infections. Total infections are an order of magnitude higher because mild cases afe not tested and confirmed. The flu mortality figures reported by cdc are not based on testing and confirmed cases, its based on models. If they reported data based on actual testing. There would be far fewer deaths and mortality rate would be higher.
Measles is a good example. In 1963 before vaccines, 400 deaths and 400,000 reported cases. A fatality rate of 1000. However, doctors know that every child got measles during childhood, although most were mild and not reported. So measles infections had to be 4 million a year. This brings the mortality rate to 1/10,000. Big difference.
Outside of hubei, italy and iran, mortality rate based on confirmed cased is under 1%. For those under 50 its less than 0.2%. The actual mortality rate is likely 10 times lower.
Coronavirus is not a new virus. There are several strains in circulation every year. This is a new strain. Like other cold viruses, it mutates, so nobody ever has full immunity. Thats why flu vaccines have low effectiveness. Thats why people get the flu and colds repeatedly through their lifetimes.
People seem to have little understanding of how our immune system works. Most of us don't need antibodies to fight off a cold or flu virus. Our innate immune system is the first line of defense and for most people sufficient to defeat the virus. Antibodies take up to 2 weeks to be produced in sufficient quantities after infection. While antibodies can help minimize symptoms after reinfection, if the new virus is sufficiently different, something called the original antigenic sin comes into play and can actually cause worse symptoms.
In older people, which are more severely affected by covid-19, an over reaction by the complement system of the innate system is responsible. Due to chronic inflammation due to aging the elderly have more active complement molecules than younger people. When antibodies are produced after a couple of weeks this actually amplifies the complement response and symptoms worsen, followed by death in some cases. Younger people who have no more humoral immunity than older people are not severely affected as they have less inflammation and complement molecules. Indeed young children's immune systems respond differently than adults as their innate immune system works to minimize inflammation.
Now, people like to recite the CFR. Unfortunately, the mortality rate must be calculated by deaths divided by total infections. Confirmed cases are not total infections. Total infections are an order of magnitude higher because mild cases afe not tested and confirmed. The flu mortality figures reported by cdc are not based on testing and confirmed cases, its based on models. If they reported data based on actual testing. There would be far fewer deaths and mortality rate would be higher.
Measles is a good example. In 1963 before vaccines, 400 deaths and 400,000 reported cases. A fatality rate of 1000. However, doctors know that every child got measles during childhood, although most were mild and not reported. So measles infections had to be 4 million a year. This brings the mortality rate to 1/10,000. Big difference.
Outside of hubei, italy and iran, mortality rate based on confirmed cased is under 1%. For those under 50 its less than 0.2%. The actual mortality rate is likely 10 times lower.
itsPLkielbasa
Registered User
How's Poland dealing with it? We travel once a year to visit my parents in law in Rzeszow. We already have tickets booked for September. I hope everything calms down by then.
New York City in general seems like everything is flowing the way it was. I unfortunately have to take public transportation to work and back home but most people seem to not care. A few have masks and gloves on.
The Crypto Guy
Registered User
- Jun 26, 2017
- 29,196
- 38,869
I’m 5 min away from the area Cuomo sent the National Guard to in New Rochelle...thankfully just outside the hot zone.
DC is getting pretty empty. I often eat at the Brookings Institute cafeteria, which is lovely. Now it's closed to the public. My office looks out over Dupont Circle which, particularly given the weather, should be bustling all day long. Instead, it's pretty dead. Metro is still full, but my MARC commuter train is noticeably less full than normal.
Krams
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2012
- 8,042
- 1,982
You couldn't pay me enough to go to a game right now.
On the brighter side, the commute to and from work has been a breeze since last week.
On the brighter side, the commute to and from work has been a breeze since last week.
Gardner McKay
RIP, Jimmy.
You couldn't pay me enough to go to a game right now.
On the brighter side, the commute to and from work has been a breeze since last week.
I'm regretting my decision to go to an Atlanta United game on Saturday night, thats for sure.
JimmyG89
Registered User
- May 1, 2010
- 10,139
- 9,013
Definitely being overhyped for the public, but governments need to continue to be proactive in their thinking, which I think most places have in the US.
For our older crowd, and those with conditions, keep it more safe than those that don't. Doesn't mean to not go out or enjoy company, but hand washing and other things should be regular.
For those that don't, hand washing should be enough. I don't think we'll see things shut down in the city, publically speaking. Maybe isolated cases, like individual schools or buildings, but nothing overarching.
More importantly, if you are sick, don't push yourself. Be cautious and stay home until you're better.
For our older crowd, and those with conditions, keep it more safe than those that don't. Doesn't mean to not go out or enjoy company, but hand washing and other things should be regular.
For those that don't, hand washing should be enough. I don't think we'll see things shut down in the city, publically speaking. Maybe isolated cases, like individual schools or buildings, but nothing overarching.
More importantly, if you are sick, don't push yourself. Be cautious and stay home until you're better.
Well if one thing I've noticed from this is guys are washing their hands now
The Crypto Guy
Registered User
- Jun 26, 2017
- 29,196
- 38,869
Hope you dont take mass transit. That’s 1000x worse than going to a Ranger game.You couldn't pay me enough to go to a game right now.
On the brighter side, the commute to and from work has been a breeze since last week.
I’m legitimately dreading the inevitable requirement that we have to work from home. My productivity is going to go down the drain in a bad way.
Krams
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2012
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- Jan 18, 2012
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I'm happy not to be in a big city anymore for situations just like this. Whether real or promulgated, the results seem to be similar.
It was tough at first... but its almost like quitting cigarettes. I can't understand how I did it before.
What's the National Guard going to do? It's a virus with people quarantining themselves in their homes?
It was tough at first... but its almost like quitting cigarettes. I can't understand how I did it before.
What's the National Guard going to do? It's a virus with people quarantining themselves in their homes?
HFsNumber1Heel
FKA Roo Returns...Still A Contrarian Apparently
My office gave us the option of coming in or working from home as I work in a very busy area. So I'm doing the 2 in, 3 from home this week. Probably the same next week. I get a lot more done in the office when people let me do my main job and I don't have 3,000 impromptu meetings. It helps keep the wear and tear down on me and will increase gym and other stuff, plus I'll save money on transit and the occasional breakfast to go.
Personally I'm not that worried about the virus because I've been in multiple airports in the last week and change for a wedding and then work trip, and I try and always wash my hands and face. I was basically sick for two months with a sore throat/cough/nasty sinus infection from Dec-Feb so I've already been through that and much much better since.
All I ask is that people can be worried but to be courteous to others and not a jerk. I've heard some stories from friends based on what part of the world their heritage is. I'll leave it at that but it's very uncool.
Personally I'm not that worried about the virus because I've been in multiple airports in the last week and change for a wedding and then work trip, and I try and always wash my hands and face. I was basically sick for two months with a sore throat/cough/nasty sinus infection from Dec-Feb so I've already been through that and much much better since.
All I ask is that people can be worried but to be courteous to others and not a jerk. I've heard some stories from friends based on what part of the world their heritage is. I'll leave it at that but it's very uncool.
JT Kreider
FIRE GORDIE CLARK
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