OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part VI (NO RIOT/PROTEST DISCUSSION)

[Barnaby]

Yeah, because the federal government provided all of NY's equipment.

Mass unemployment is only going to get worse as this progresses. Do you think anything is going to be done? We got our 1200 "f*** off" bucks. That was it.

Many people still haven't gotten any money from unemployment and that runs out eventually.

The government is not going to secure our standard of living through a prolonged lockdown. This is a cold take.

Im going to work and never got that lovely $1200 bucks which I’m not thrilled about. I hope you enjoyed it.

Mass Unemployment sucks, but the goal of this was to “flatten the curve.” 45 states could probably start easing back in today. Not everyplace is the debacle that is NY.

The Federal government did provide a ton of NY’s equipment. Where did the ventilators come from? Where did the temp hospitals and hospital ships come from?

The government isn’t supposed to “secure your standard of living.” It’s a bandaid until you can get your ass back to work.

 

[Barnaby]

I’m not sure how to post graphs or links, and I’m at work so I’m not learning now... but interesting to note: Google “John Hopkins death rate per 100k.” You’ll find that US is 2nd in success rate - only behind Germany. Maybe that’ll calm down the masses, but probably not.

 

[Leetch3]

I was reading an article over the weekend about how based on population, NJ is the worst state in terms of testing....the % of positive tests is 38% compared to 13% in NY (FDC recommends 10% before re-opening) because of a complete lack of testing sample size and testing mainly people with symptoms...it suggested that we should be doing 10 times as many test per day as is currently happening.

 

[Fireonk]

I’m not sure how to post graphs or links, and I’m at work so I’m not learning now... but interesting to note: Google “John Hopkins death rate per 100k.” You’ll find that US is 2nd in success rate - only behind Germany. Maybe that’ll calm down the masses, but probably not.

Umm, US is 2nd of the few countries they show in that chart. Those being generally the hardest hit ones. Scroll down and you can see the US is far from 2nd.

Not sure that's the best metric anyway since the results are so much based on testing capabilities.

 

[Machinehead]

Im going to work and never got that lovely $1200 bucks which I’m not thrilled about. I hope you enjoyed it.

Mass Unemployment sucks, but the goal of this was to “flatten the curve.” 45 states could probably start easing back in today. Not everyplace is the debacle that is NY.

The Federal government did provide a ton of NY’s equipment. Where did the ventilators come from? Where did the temp hospitals and hospital ships come from?

The government isn’t supposed to “secure your standard of living.” It’s a bandaid until you can get your ass back to work.

Good!

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I like the subtle humble brag of "well I didn't get a $1200 check"

Like do you want us to feel bad that you have a good job dude ? lol

 

[Machinehead]

Haha, sorry

No, actually I just saw a thing yesterday where a low R0 drops the herd immunity threshold considerably, so you're onto something there. I honestly didn't know that.

Right now, the R0 is at an appropriate level where herd immunity would be low. Of course, we have to take into account that this is a socially distanced R0. It's going to rise and I think it's dangerous to say we're at a certain point where it's going to get better because we're already at that point and that's it.

You're right, but I think it still depends on our actions.

And of course, I'm not saying shut down, I'm against that, but don't go haywire either. In theory, I think Cuomo has the right idea and we'll see how he works it in practice.

 

[sbjnyc]

I’m not sure how to post graphs or links, and I’m at work so I’m not learning now... but interesting to note: Google “John Hopkins death rate per 100k.” You’ll find that US is 2nd in success rate - only behind Germany. Maybe that’ll calm down the masses, but probably not.

This is the table in full. We are far from the best in terns of deaths per 100k or CFR. That said, I don't really trust the numbers from Russia, China, Iran or Brazil (or even the US to be honest). The data is still far too noisy to really tell you anything concrete IMO. What's worse is that the CFR in the US has been increase not decreasing but is at least on the right side of the global average. Who knows what the actual fatality rate will be when we look back on it 10 years from now but I don't think it will be 0.1%.

Cases and mortality by country

Country	Confirmed	Deaths	Case-Fatality	Deaths/100k pop.
US	1,329,260	79,526	6.0%	24.31
United Kingdom	220,449	31,930	14.5%	48.02
Italy	219,070	30,560	13.9%	50.57
Spain	224,350	26,621	11.9%	56.98
France	177,094	26,383	14.9%	39.39
Brazil	162,699	11,123	6.8%	5.31
Belgium	53,081	8,656	16.3%	75.78
Germany	171,879	7,569	4.4%	9.13
Iran	107,603	6,640	6.2%	8.12
Netherlands	42,826	5,459	12.7%	31.68
Canada	70,091	4,991	7.1%	13.47
China	84,010	4,637	5.5%	0.33
Turkey	138,657	3,786	2.7%	4.60
Mexico	35,022	3,465	9.9%	2.75
Sweden	26,322	3,225	12.3%	31.67
India	67,161	2,212	3.3%	0.16
Ecuador	29,559	2,127	7.2%	12.45
Russia	209,688	1,915	0.9%	1.33
Peru	67,307	1,889	2.8%	5.91
Switzerland	30,305	1,833	6.0%	21.52
Ireland	22,996	1,458	6.3%	30.04
Portugal	27,581	1,135	4.1%	11.04
Indonesia	14,032	973	6.9%	0.36
Romania	15,362	961	6.3%	4.93
Poland	15,996	800	5.0%	2.11
Philippines	10,794	719	6.7%	0.67
Pakistan	30,334	659	2.2%	0.31
Japan	15,777	624	4.0%	0.49
Austria	15,871	618	3.9%	6.99
Denmark	10,627	529	5.0%	9.12
Egypt	9,400	525	5.6%	0.53
Algeria	5,723	502	8.8%	1.19
Colombia	11,063	463	4.2%	0.93
Hungary	3,263	413	12.7%	4.23
Ukraine	15,232	391	2.6%	0.88
Dominican Republic	10,347	388	3.7%	3.65
Chile	28,866	312	1.1%	1.67
Argentina	6,034	305	5.1%	0.69
Czechia	8,123	280	3.4%	2.64
Finland	5,962	267	4.5%	4.84
Korea, South	10,909	256	2.3%	0.50
Israel	16,477	252	1.5%	2.84
Saudi Arabia	39,048	246	0.6%	0.73
Panama	8,448	244	2.9%	5.84
Bangladesh	14,657	228	1.6%	0.14
Norway	8,105	219	2.7%	4.12
Serbia	10,032	215	2.1%	3.08
United Arab Emirates	18,198	198	1.1%	2.06
South Africa	10,015	194	1.9%	0.34
Morocco	6,063	188	3.1%	0.52
Moldova	4,927	169	3.4%	4.77
Greece	2,716	151	5.6%	1.41
Nigeria	4,399	143	3.3%	0.07
Belarus	22,973	131	0.6%	1.38
Afghanistan	4,402	120	2.7%	0.32
Bolivia	2,556	118	4.6%	1.04
Cameroon	2,579	114	4.4%	0.45
Iraq	2,767	109	3.9%	0.28
Malaysia	6,656	108	1.6%	0.34
Honduras	1,972	108	5.5%	1.13
Bosnia and Herzegovina	2,117	107	5.1%	3.22
Slovenia	1,457	102	7.0%	4.93
Luxembourg	3,886	101	2.6%	16.62
Australia	6,948	97	1.4%	0.39
Bulgaria	1,965	91	4.6%	1.30
North Macedonia	1,642	91	5.5%	4.37
Croatia	2,187	90	4.1%	2.20
Cuba	1,766	77	4.4%	0.68
Sudan	1,365	70	5.1%	0.17
Estonia	1,739	60	3.5%	4.54
Kuwait	8,688	58	0.7%	1.40
Thailand	3,009	56	1.9%	0.08
Somalia	1,054	51	4.8%	0.34
Lithuania	1,479	50	3.4%	1.79
Burkina Faso	751	49	6.5%	0.25
Andorra	755	48	6.4%	62.33
Niger	821	46	5.6%	0.20
Armenia	3,313	45	1.4%	1.52
Tunisia	1,032	45	4.4%	0.39
San Marino	628	41	6.5%	121.36
Congo (Kinshasa)	991	41	4.1%	0.05
Mali	704	38	5.4%	0.20
Kenya	672	32	4.8%	0.06
Azerbaijan	2,519	32	1.3%	0.32
Kazakhstan	5,090	31	0.6%	0.17
Chad	322	31	9.6%	0.20
Albania	868	31	3.6%	1.08
Kosovo	870	28	3.2%	1.52
Guatemala	1,052	26	2.5%	0.15
Lebanon	845	26	3.1%	0.38
Slovakia	1,457	26	1.8%	0.48
Ghana	4,263	22	0.5%	0.07
Tanzania	509	21	4.1%	0.04
New Zealand	1,497	21	1.4%	0.43
Cote d'Ivoire	1,700	21	1.2%	0.08
Singapore	23,336	20	0.1%	0.35
Tajikistan	612	20	3.3%	0.22
Liberia	199	20	10.1%	0.42
Uruguay	707	19	2.7%	0.55
Senegal	1,709	19	1.1%	0.12
Latvia	939	18	1.9%	0.93
Sierra Leone	307	18	5.9%	0.24
Oman	3,399	17	0.5%	0.35
El Salvador	889	17	1.9%	0.26
Cyprus	898	16	1.8%	1.35
Haiti	182	15	8.2%	0.13
Qatar	22,520	14	0.1%	0.50
Diamond Princess	712	13	1.8%	nan
Kyrgyzstan	1,002	12	1.2%	0.19
Bahamas	92	11	12.0%	nan
Guinea	2,146	11	0.5%	0.09
Togo	174	11	6.3%	0.14
Uzbekistan	2,418	10	0.4%	0.03
Venezuela	414	10	2.4%	0.03
Congo (Brazzaville)	274	10	3.6%	0.19
Paraguay	713	10	1.4%	0.14
Guyana	104	10	9.6%	1.28
Iceland	1,801	10	0.6%	2.83
Georgia	635	10	1.6%	0.27
Mauritius	332	10	3.0%	0.79
Sri Lanka	863	9	1.0%	0.04
Jordan	540	9	1.7%	0.09
Montenegro	324	9	2.8%	1.45
Jamaica	502	9	1.8%	0.31
Trinidad and Tobago	116	8	6.9%	0.58
Gabon	661	8	1.2%	0.38
Yemen	51	8	15.7%	nan
Bahrain	4,941	8	0.2%	0.51
Zambia	267	7	2.6%	0.04
Barbados	84	7	8.3%	2.44
Costa Rica	792	7	0.9%	0.14
Taiwan*	440	6	1.4%	0.03
Burma	180	6	3.3%	nan
Ethiopia	239	5	2.1%	0.00
Malta	496	5	1.0%	1.03
Sao Tome and Principe	208	5	2.4%	2.37
Nicaragua	16	5	31.2%	0.08
Equatorial Guinea	439	4	0.9%	0.31
Monaco	96	4	4.2%	10.34
Zimbabwe	36	4	11.1%	0.03
Syria	47	3	6.4%	nan
Antigua and Barbuda	25	3	12.0%	3.12
Djibouti	1,210	3	0.2%	0.31
Maldives	835	3	0.4%	0.58
Malawi	56	3	5.4%	0.02
Libya	64	3	4.7%	0.04
Guinea-Bissau	726	3	0.4%	0.16

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[sbjnyc]

Spy movies are not going to age well.

An Indian police officer checks the body temperature of a migrant who arrived at Borivali Railway Station, Mumbai, to catch the train to Pratapgarh, in the state of Uttar Pradesh. (Photo: EFE/EPA/DIVYAKANT SOLANKI)

 

[Ola]

No, actually I just saw a thing yesterday where a low R0 drops the herd immunity threshold considerably, so you're onto something there. I honestly didn't know that.

Right now, the R0 is at an appropriate level where herd immunity would be low. Of course, we have to take into account that this is a socially distanced R0. It's going to rise and I think it's dangerous to say we're at a certain point where it's going to get better because we're already at that point and that's it.

You're right, but I think it still depends on our actions.

And of course, I'm not saying shut down, I'm against that, but don't go haywire either. In theory, I think Cuomo has the right idea and we'll see how he works it in practice.

Thanks! Much appreciated!

I think the curve for Stockholm is interesting to follow the next couple of weeks. Its impossible to come to the conclusion that its curve is going down because of social distancing. There have never been a lockdown, schools and stores are open, but large public gatherings are banned.

If it keeps coming down over the coming weeks, I think its hard to explain it any other way that its largely thanks to herd immunity (STHLM had about 25% Immunity on 8 May, of deaths are relfective of the situation 3.5 weeks prior to it).

Could be that it levels out at a high level, but if it keeps going down its huge:

 

[Machinehead]

Thanks! Much appreciated!

I think the curve for Stockholm is interesting to follow the next couple of weeks. Its impossible to come to the conclusion that its curve is going down because of social distancing. There have never been a lockdown, schools and stores are open, but large public gatherings are banned.

If it keeps coming down over the coming weeks, I think its hard to explain it any other way that its largely thanks to herd immunity (STHLM had about 25% Immunity on 8 May, of deaths are relfective of the situation 3.5 weeks prior to it).

Could be that it levels out at a high level, but if it keeps going down its huge:
View attachment 345820

Praying it does, and I don't pray much.

A natural burnout to this would help us out a lot.

 

[Devilsfan992]

One huge positive is that there was not a spike in the #of cases or hospitalizations after last weekend (5/2 and 5/3). That weekend was one of very nice weather and many people were outside gathering in parks. I may be more optimistic about the outlook then most, but I believe this is great news for the next few weeks.

 

[Barnaby]

Good!

Uhh, ok.

You deserve it on your couch waxing poetic on a hockey message board, but I don’t wearing a mask for 12 hour shifts and having to be secluded from my family. We’ve already heard how college professors are more at risk than first responders. Narcissism much?

Good on you.

 

[Barnaby]

I like the subtle humble brag of "well I didn't get a $1200 check"

Like do you want us to feel bad that you have a good job dude ? lol

Im in civil service... it’s not a brag... I could use it. I’m not a Hedge Fund guy letting you know I’m a millionaire.

 

[Barnaby]

This is the table in full. We are far from the best in terns of deaths per 100k or CFR. That said, I don't really trust the numbers from Russia, China, Iran or Brazil (or even the US to be honest). The data is still far too noisy to really tell you anything concrete IMO. What's worse is that the CFR in the US has been increase not decreasing but is at least on the right side of the global average. Who knows what the actual fatality rate will be when we look back on it 10 years from now but I don't think it will be 0.1%.

Cases and mortality by country

Country	Confirmed	Deaths	Case-Fatality	Deaths/100k pop.
US	1,329,260	79,526	6.0%	24.31
United Kingdom	220,449	31,930	14.5%	48.02
Italy	219,070	30,560	13.9%	50.57
Spain	224,350	26,621	11.9%	56.98
France	177,094	26,383	14.9%	39.39
Brazil	162,699	11,123	6.8%	5.31
Belgium	53,081	8,656	16.3%	75.78
Germany	171,879	7,569	4.4%	9.13
Iran	107,603	6,640	6.2%	8.12
Netherlands	42,826	5,459	12.7%	31.68
Canada	70,091	4,991	7.1%	13.47
China	84,010	4,637	5.5%	0.33
Turkey	138,657	3,786	2.7%	4.60
Mexico	35,022	3,465	9.9%	2.75
Sweden	26,322	3,225	12.3%	31.67
India	67,161	2,212	3.3%	0.16
Ecuador	29,559	2,127	7.2%	12.45
Russia	209,688	1,915	0.9%	1.33
Peru	67,307	1,889	2.8%	5.91
Switzerland	30,305	1,833	6.0%	21.52
Ireland	22,996	1,458	6.3%	30.04
Portugal	27,581	1,135	4.1%	11.04
Indonesia	14,032	973	6.9%	0.36
Romania	15,362	961	6.3%	4.93
Poland	15,996	800	5.0%	2.11
Philippines	10,794	719	6.7%	0.67
Pakistan	30,334	659	2.2%	0.31
Japan	15,777	624	4.0%	0.49
Austria	15,871	618	3.9%	6.99
Denmark	10,627	529	5.0%	9.12
Egypt	9,400	525	5.6%	0.53
Algeria	5,723	502	8.8%	1.19
Colombia	11,063	463	4.2%	0.93
Hungary	3,263	413	12.7%	4.23
Ukraine	15,232	391	2.6%	0.88
Dominican Republic	10,347	388	3.7%	3.65
Chile	28,866	312	1.1%	1.67
Argentina	6,034	305	5.1%	0.69
Czechia	8,123	280	3.4%	2.64
Finland	5,962	267	4.5%	4.84
Korea, South	10,909	256	2.3%	0.50
Israel	16,477	252	1.5%	2.84
Saudi Arabia	39,048	246	0.6%	0.73
Panama	8,448	244	2.9%	5.84
Bangladesh	14,657	228	1.6%	0.14
Norway	8,105	219	2.7%	4.12
Serbia	10,032	215	2.1%	3.08
United Arab Emirates	18,198	198	1.1%	2.06
South Africa	10,015	194	1.9%	0.34
Morocco	6,063	188	3.1%	0.52
Moldova	4,927	169	3.4%	4.77
Greece	2,716	151	5.6%	1.41
Nigeria	4,399	143	3.3%	0.07
Belarus	22,973	131	0.6%	1.38
Afghanistan	4,402	120	2.7%	0.32
Bolivia	2,556	118	4.6%	1.04
Cameroon	2,579	114	4.4%	0.45
Iraq	2,767	109	3.9%	0.28
Malaysia	6,656	108	1.6%	0.34
Honduras	1,972	108	5.5%	1.13
Bosnia and Herzegovina	2,117	107	5.1%	3.22
Slovenia	1,457	102	7.0%	4.93
Luxembourg	3,886	101	2.6%	16.62
Australia	6,948	97	1.4%	0.39
Bulgaria	1,965	91	4.6%	1.30
North Macedonia	1,642	91	5.5%	4.37
Croatia	2,187	90	4.1%	2.20
Cuba	1,766	77	4.4%	0.68
Sudan	1,365	70	5.1%	0.17
Estonia	1,739	60	3.5%	4.54
Kuwait	8,688	58	0.7%	1.40
Thailand	3,009	56	1.9%	0.08
Somalia	1,054	51	4.8%	0.34
Lithuania	1,479	50	3.4%	1.79
Burkina Faso	751	49	6.5%	0.25
Andorra	755	48	6.4%	62.33
Niger	821	46	5.6%	0.20
Armenia	3,313	45	1.4%	1.52
Tunisia	1,032	45	4.4%	0.39
San Marino	628	41	6.5%	121.36
Congo (Kinshasa)	991	41	4.1%	0.05
Mali	704	38	5.4%	0.20
Kenya	672	32	4.8%	0.06
Azerbaijan	2,519	32	1.3%	0.32
Kazakhstan	5,090	31	0.6%	0.17
Chad	322	31	9.6%	0.20
Albania	868	31	3.6%	1.08
Kosovo	870	28	3.2%	1.52
Guatemala	1,052	26	2.5%	0.15
Lebanon	845	26	3.1%	0.38
Slovakia	1,457	26	1.8%	0.48
Ghana	4,263	22	0.5%	0.07
Tanzania	509	21	4.1%	0.04
New Zealand	1,497	21	1.4%	0.43
Cote d'Ivoire	1,700	21	1.2%	0.08
Singapore	23,336	20	0.1%	0.35
Tajikistan	612	20	3.3%	0.22
Liberia	199	20	10.1%	0.42
Uruguay	707	19	2.7%	0.55
Senegal	1,709	19	1.1%	0.12
Latvia	939	18	1.9%	0.93
Sierra Leone	307	18	5.9%	0.24
Oman	3,399	17	0.5%	0.35
El Salvador	889	17	1.9%	0.26
Cyprus	898	16	1.8%	1.35
Haiti	182	15	8.2%	0.13
Qatar	22,520	14	0.1%	0.50
Diamond Princess	712	13	1.8%	nan
Kyrgyzstan	1,002	12	1.2%	0.19
Bahamas	92	11	12.0%	nan
Guinea	2,146	11	0.5%	0.09
Togo	174	11	6.3%	0.14
Uzbekistan	2,418	10	0.4%	0.03
Venezuela	414	10	2.4%	0.03
Congo (Brazzaville)	274	10	3.6%	0.19
Paraguay	713	10	1.4%	0.14
Guyana	104	10	9.6%	1.28
Iceland	1,801	10	0.6%	2.83
Georgia	635	10	1.6%	0.27
Mauritius	332	10	3.0%	0.79
Sri Lanka	863	9	1.0%	0.04
Jordan	540	9	1.7%	0.09
Montenegro	324	9	2.8%	1.45
Jamaica	502	9	1.8%	0.31
Trinidad and Tobago	116	8	6.9%	0.58
Gabon	661	8	1.2%	0.38
Yemen	51	8	15.7%	nan
Bahrain	4,941	8	0.2%	0.51
Zambia	267	7	2.6%	0.04
Barbados	84	7	8.3%	2.44
Costa Rica	792	7	0.9%	0.14
Taiwan*	440	6	1.4%	0.03
Burma	180	6	3.3%	nan
Ethiopia	239	5	2.1%	0.00
Malta	496	5	1.0%	1.03
Sao Tome and Principe	208	5	2.4%	2.37
Nicaragua	16	5	31.2%	0.08
Equatorial Guinea	439	4	0.9%	0.31
Monaco	96	4	4.2%	10.34
Zimbabwe	36	4	11.1%	0.03
Syria	47	3	6.4%	nan
Antigua and Barbuda	25	3	12.0%	3.12
Djibouti	1,210	3	0.2%	0.31
Maldives	835	3	0.4%	0.58
Malawi	56	3	5.4%	0.02
Libya	64	3	4.7%	0.04
Guinea-Bissau	726	3	0.4%	0.16

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Thats fair... the numbers are what they are. Jury is still out on what the future holds, but I do think we look back on this in 20 years and see a dramatic overreaction. That’s not to say that I think we should’ve ignored this or that I don’t care about those who passed and their families. I just think this could’ve been handled a lot more conservatively. However, what do you do jumping into this with so many lies and misinformation? China wasn’t being truthful... so you do the best you can with the info you have.

For what it’s worth, I do think US numbers are inflated. Almost anyone who dies is being listed as “CoVid symptoms” or “probable CoVid.” They are sometime right - sometimes wrong - people die of natural/other causes.

I think we need a strong lockdown on facilities like nursing homes, hospitals.. etc... but young healthy adults need to be working.

 

[True Blue]

This is the table in full. We are far from the best in terns of deaths per 100k or CFR. That said, I don't really trust the numbers from Russia, China, Iran or Brazil (or even the US to be honest). The data is still far too noisy to really tell you anything concrete IMO. What's worse is that the CFR in the US has been increase not decreasing but is at least on the right side of the global average. Who knows what the actual fatality rate will be when we look back on it 10 years from now but I don't think it will be 0.1%.

Not saying that your numbers are incorrect, clearly they are not, but I think that they are even more useful when presented with context. For example, how much of the mortality rate is concentrated between those 1) living in nursing homes 2) people over 65 years old 3) Those with an underlying health condition. Clearly every life is important, but with proper context, one could much more meaningfully discuss reopening.

 

[Machinehead]

Uhh, ok.

You deserve it on your couch waxing poetic on a hockey message board, but I don’t wearing a mask for 12 hour shifts and having to be secluded from my family. We’ve already heard how college professors are more at risk than first responders. Narcissism much?

Good on you.

Yes, I've already given you those objective facts. Good memory.

 

[Machinehead]

One huge positive is that there was not a spike in the #of cases or hospitalizations after last weekend (5/2 and 5/3). That weekend was one of very nice weather and many people were outside gathering in parks. I may be more optimistic about the outlook then most, but I believe this is great news for the next few weeks.

Yeah I've been thinking the same thing.

We've been careful for sure, but I would hardly call New York "locked down" the last couple of weeks and the cases haven't spiked.

 

[sbjnyc]

Not saying that your numbers are incorrect, clearly they are not, but I think that they are even more useful when presented with context. For example, how much of the mortality rate is concentrated between those 1) living in nursing homes 2) people over 65 years old 3) Those with an underlying health condition. Clearly every life is important, but with proper context, one could much more meaningfully discuss reopening.

These are not my numbers. These are the numbers from the site @Barnaby was referring to when he stated the US had the 2nd best success rate.

For what it’s worth, I do think US numbers are inflated. Almost anyone who dies is being listed as “CoVid symptoms” or “probable CoVid.” They are sometime right - sometimes wrong - people die of natural/other causes.

I think we need a strong lockdown on facilities like nursing homes, hospitals.. etc... but young healthy adults need to be working.

You're probably right but I don't think the US is special in that case. This leads to one of the many oversimplifications in the healthcare debate. How mortality and morbidity statistics are coded can change dramatically from country to country so comparing healthcare statistics between countries and thus how their systems operate is far more complicated.

In any event you can lock down nursing homes and hospitals but those employees still commute on the same mass transit systems and shop at the same stores the rest of us do.

 

[True Blue]

These are not my numbers. These are the numbers from the site @Barnaby was referring to when he stated the US had the 2nd best success rate.

Just the way that I wrote. I know that those are not your numbers. Did not mean to insinuate that.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Only 3 regions cleared to start opening stuff in a couple days, that stuff being very minor things. They will they see 2 weeks later if they can open more like barber shops and restaurants at very limited capacity.

Dont expect anywhere down here to open anything of value till at least mid june. This is a snails pace.

 

[Synergy27]

My guess is the initial drop might have been an overreaction and the markets correct itself as more information becomes available. But nothing beats a good conspiracy theory.

So the millions and millions of unemployed are an overreaction too? What’s the conspiracy theory being discussed? The facts on the ground are that shit loads of working people are completely f***ed right now and of course the investor class keeps on truckin.

The DJIA is divorced from reality for most people and is in no way an indicator of overall economic health. It’s basically a scoreboard for wealth transfer at this point.

 

[NYR Viper]

So the millions and millions of unemployed are an overreaction too? What’s the conspiracy theory being discussed? The facts on the ground are that shit loads of working people are completely f***ed right now and of course the investor class keeps on truckin.

The DJIA is divorced from reality for most people and is in no way an indicator of overall economic health. It’s basically a scoreboard for wealth transfer at this point.

I think what you're seeing is people or corporations who had cash waiting for a drop investing as well as many people believing that 60-90 days from now the country will be in a much better spot. On top of that, there are some companies doing BETTER during this crisis than they were before. Mainly tech stocks. Yes some sectors have been hit very hard but that's not all.

I think if we get hit with a second wave in the Fall we will see another drop for sure and more than likely lower than we went this time around but it would seem that many people believe this to be more of a temporary speed bump than a true recession/depression. Maybe they're wrong.

Speaking only for the industry that I work in, we are seeing a ton of pent up demand for very large projects to begin hitting around July/August with quite a bit of greenfield construction occurring in the fall/winter/spring. Much of the work that was predicted to be occurring now has only been delayed and not cancelled and much of the retrofits and smaller upgrades have been pushed for a couple of months with the funds already approved by VERY large multi-national corporations. It's just a matter of when.

In saying all of that, if other industries that help drive the economy are seeing similar things than the market steadying itself and inching upwards as more states release businesses to begin operation makes some sense.

 

[Trxjw]

Can someone explain to me how the stock market just had its greatest month ever while the country is locked down and facing historic levels of unemployment?

Not too complicated really. The stock market is just a bunch of artificially adjusted nonsense. It's evolved from a barometer for the health of an economy into a mechanism for wealthy people to funnel more money to themselves. The drops had as much to do with people re-positioning themselves as it did with genuine panic. Perhaps even more so.

 

[NYSPORTS]

people believing that 60-90 days from now the country will be in a much better spot. On top of that, there are some companies doing BETTER during this crisis than they were before. Mainly tech stocks. Yes some sectors have been hit very hard but that's not all.

I think if we get hit with a second wave in the Fall we will see another drop for sure and more than likely lower than we went this time around but it would seem that many people believe this to be more of a temporary speed bump than a true recession/depression. Maybe they're wrong.
.

This is going to be quiet a summer. I’m guess we’re going to see some make a mad dash for as much cash as possible in preparation for the 2nd wave while others will go about their summer as if there is nothing to worry about and risk getting blindsided if wave two arrives.

IMO, we see people already emotionally fatigued for a virus which has been with us for less than 3 months. They’re already numb to the number of infected. It’s very possible we’ll add on 9 more months. How much farther than 9 months will we go?

A possible brutal situation and this Kawasaki disease is scaring me. Economy wise, I believe we’ll keep printing money to keep the economy afloat.