OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part V

[Irishguy42]

I mean, Cuomo and others can set timelines for the middle/late May all they want. They may say it's set in stone and we have to deal with it.

But the reality is, and Fauci talks about this a lot, is that timelines are constantly evolving with new data and research breakthroughs, and maybe in two weeks, a mid May opening may be not needed. Or maybe it needs to be pushed back. But it's better to set exaggerated timelines and plans now and then be able to open sooner, than it is to plan to lift restrictions sooner and then find out it actually needed to be later.

But just know that they're all really playing it week-to-week, despite saying the lockdown is going to remain for another month.

It's a lot easier, and more importantly safer, to operate that way.

 

[eco's bones]

Oh yeah, for sure. I talked about a smart, managed emergence but my gut feeling is that you would wanna start something like that maybe June 1st, not now.

Cuomo said yesterday that the shutdown is definitely extended to May 15th. I think he'll give some serious consideration to where we are at that point. A month makes a world of difference with this thing.

I agree June 1 or June 15th even depending on progress made and it might also depend a lot on federal aid. I'm very much with Cuomo--get more testing and I also like the idea of those who can work at home should do exactly that. Some places upstate will probably go first. He was talking a bit about that today. I also like the idea of coordinating regionally with other states.

 

[eco's bones]

I mean, Cuomo and others can set timelines for the middle/late May all they want. They may say it's set in stone and we have to deal with it.

But the reality is, and Fauci talks about this a lot, is that timelines are constantly evolving with new data and research breakthroughs, and maybe in two weeks, a mid May opening may be not needed. Or maybe it needs to be pushed back. But it's better to set exaggerated timelines and plans now and then be able to open sooner, than it is to plan to lift restrictions sooner and then find out it actually needed to be later.

But just know that they're all really playing it week-to-week, despite saying the lockdown is going to remain for another month.

It's a lot easier, and more importantly safer, to operate that way.

Should be careful not to get people's hopes too high about any particular date. When Trump does this it is not helpful. Patience is a good quality--impatience not so much and in this kind of situation it's a bad quality. Things are trending better though so it is hard not to be more optimistic.

 

[Irishguy42]

Should be careful not to get people's hopes too high about any particular date. When Trump does this it is not helpful. Patience is a good quality--impatience not so much and in this kind of situation it's a bad quality. Things are trending better though so it is hard not to be more optimistic.

Yep. Timelines are constantly evolving. Trump/governors/etc. can all say whatever dates they want. Chances are pretty good that the timeline changes not long after they set a date.

This is just a big "play it by ear"

 

[Machinehead]

I agree June 1 or June 15th even depending on progress made and it might also depend a lot on federal aid. I'm very much with Cuomo--get more testing and I also like the idea of those who can work at home should do exactly that. Some places upstate will probably go first. He was talking a bit about that today. I also like the idea of coordinating regionally with other states.

Yeah, that way if anybody from a hotspot tries to come in, we can keep them the f*** in Delaware

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

I think June 15th is the most optimistic at this point in a limited capacity. July 1st or even after July is 4th is more realistic in a limited capacity as well.

There's going to be a giant asterisk. NYC can't reopen the same as Kingston, NY. Social distancing will still be a thing and restaurants, bars, movie theaters, concerts none of those are happening until a vaccine is found

Offices also will probably begin "rotations." You can't have 100% capacity especially in an area like NYC where mostly everyone is commuting via subway/bus/etc.

 

[Leetch3]

a date to re-open is far less important at this point than a plan for how to re-open. you can't just say ok go back to normal. it has to be a phased thing especially in such a densely populated area. but thats not going to be easy to plan cause so many things are connected and dependent on each other...not to mention all the people that you can't get to stay inside now, good luck getting them to 'wait their turn' to resume normal life.

 

[eco's bones]

Consider that Japan which had initially done a great job in controlling the outbreak is now having their hospital system overwhelmed. It's not necessarily over here either. There have been rumors of a return in China too. Some countries (maybe even a couple of our states) have proven adept at suppressing the news of what's really going in--and for the Coronavirus a couple examples of that would be China and Iran. A long time ago Russia went to great lengths to play down what happened in Chernobyl.

 

[eco's bones]

I think June 15th is the most optimistic at this point in a limited capacity. July 1st or even after July is 4th is more realistic in a limited capacity as well.

There's going to be a giant asterisk. NYC can't reopen the same as Kingston, NY. Social distancing will still be a thing and restaurants, bars, movie theaters, concerts none of those are happening until a vaccine is found

Offices also will probably begin "rotations." You can't have 100% capacity especially in an area like NYC where mostly everyone is commuting via subway/bus/etc.

Some restaurants might be able to function after they take half their tables away. It's going to be awkward too when your server comes outfitted in mask, hospital gown and gloves and drops the check off with your food and doesn't come around to check on you after. I can't see gyms until there absolutely is a vaccine. They're in cruise ship territory for now. The disease spreads via droplets--gyms are all about droplets. I also don't see how you can fill arenas or stadiums particularly in New York. MSG at a quarter capacity?--if that and what happens if it runs through a team? A certificate of health that day from a doctor. We really need a vaccine before attending sports events happens again. Same with concerts--maybe you could do something in parks with a strong police presence to make sure people are distancing. Things are going to be f***ed up for a while IMO.

 

[Ola]

A few thoughts:

Eco- I think you are spot on. Creating/building a vaccine will in all likelihood take years. It always is a process of testing, getting flawed results, modifying the vaccine, then testing again, getting flawed results, then modifying ..... and so forth for a period of 5-10 years. Now they have unlimited resources and will probably be able to get there faster. How fast? Ultimately it is a pure lottery. Trial and error. Nobody knows exactly what to do. The experts say that 1 year would be sensational.

Before that, it is impossible to “wipe the virus away”. You can’t go down to zero, start to contact trace confirmed cases and confine them once it is out like in NYC. I have seen Cuomo and CNN talk about this the last days. “We must get more tests and huge resources so that we can contact trace once we open up.” I have seen so many experts state that this is impossible/irrelevant once you have a wide spread in a society. This was the option before it was out, once it is out you can’t squeeze it down to those levels again. Probably over a million cases in NYC. Even if you get the R-value down to 0.5 it takes months to go from a million to a small number that you can confine, trace and quarantine effectively — and even then odds are that you will fail.

 

[eco's bones]

A few thoughts:

Eco- I think you are spot on. Creating/building a vaccine will in all likelihood take years. It always is a process of testing, getting flawed results, modifying the vaccine, then testing again, getting flawed results, then modifying ..... and so forth for a period of 5-10 years. Now they have unlimited resources and will probably be able to get there faster. How fast? Ultimately it is a pure lottery. Trial and error. Nobody knows exactly what to do. The experts say that 1 year would be sensational.

Before that, it is impossible to “wipe the virus away”. You can’t go down to zero, start to contact trace confirmed cases and confine them once it is out like in NYC. I have seen Cuomo and CNN talk about this the last days. “We must get more tests and huge resources so that we can contact trace once we open up.” I have seen so many experts state that this is impossible/irrelevant once you have a wide spread in a society. This was the option before it was out, once it is out you can’t squeeze it down to those levels again. Probably over a million cases in NYC. Even if you get the R-value down to 0.5 it takes months to go from a million to a small number that you can confine, trace and quarantine effectively — and even then odds are that you will fail.

They do seem to be figuring out some ways of treating it---which is good. There's more information all the time. Eventually a vaccine will happen and that's probably sooner than 5-10 years but I'm sure that as long as the problem persists it will be subject to modification. There are numerous entities at work on this too so who knows maybe there will be more than one kind of vaccine.

An annoyance right now are the people running around with guns including assault weapons and yelling 'you're taking away my freedoms'. A significant % of our population still do not take this seriously and all the mixed messaging has fed into this. I read this account from a nurse in Michigan coming off a double shift in which 4 of her patients died, 5 more were intubated, 2 others were re-intubated, she worked out two DNR's with the families of patients on the verge of dying and did CPR on another patient plus all the other shit that goes with an overwhelmed hospital. She wasn't very appreciative of the protesting over 'Why can't I go to my summer house on the lake?' and 'what about my freedom and gun rights?' pointing out as well that once her double shift is over she isn't going home to her family--she goes to a motel so as not to potentially bring the disease back to her house.

 

[Ola]

They do seem to be figuring out some ways of treating it---which is good. There's more information all the time. Eventually a vaccine will happen and that's probably sooner than 5-10 years but I'm sure that as long as the problem persists it will be subject to modification. There are numerous entities at work on this too so who knows maybe there will be more than one kind of vaccine.

An annoyance right now are the people running around with guns including assault weapons and yelling 'you're taking away my freedoms'. A significant % of our population still do not take this seriously and all the mixed messaging has fed into this. I read this account from a nurse in Michigan coming off a double shift in which 4 of her patients died, 5 more were intubated, 2 others were re-intubated, she worked out two DNR's with the families of patients on the verge of dying and did CPR on another patient plus all the other shit that goes with an overwhelmed hospital. She wasn't very appreciative of the protesting over 'Why can't I go to my summer house on the lake?' and 'what about my freedom and gun rights?' pointing out as well that once her double shift is over she isn't going home to her family--she goes to a motel so as not to potentially bring the disease back to her house.

Yeah, and I mean, I don’t think the jump from having thousands losing the fight against the virus and passing away — too a large portion of the same people winning the fight by a hair and surviving has to be that high.

And once we get to that stage, where the health care can take on a big number of people and ‘keep them alive’ — it changes the ball game. That stage could come sooner and many are for example hopeful about the remisidevir drug — which could end up having that impact.

 

[charliemurphy]

Can't possibly see NYC reopening anytime soon unless mass testing enters the equation. And even at that point we are bound to have rolling lock downs. Mass transit is what will be an issue because of the population density that relies on it. Folks aiming for this June should start thinking about next June as being a safer call to return to somewhat normal reality. Taking this day by day but without large scale detection testing, antibody testing, contact tracing... it's just not happening on a federal level which is what's needed. The coordination is just not there. Better to cross fingers on some form of treatment or breakthrough drug comes into play.

 

[charliemurphy]

Yeah, and I mean, I don’t think the jump from having thousands losing the fight against the virus and passing away — too a large portion of the same people winning the fight by a hair and surviving has to be that high.

And once we get to that stage, where the health care can take on a big number of people and ‘keep them alive’ — it changes the ball game. That stage could come sooner and many are for example hopeful about the remisidevir drug — which could end up having that impact.

W

A few thoughts:

Eco- I think you are spot on. Creating/building a vaccine will in all likelihood take years. It always is a process of testing, getting flawed results, modifying the vaccine, then testing again, getting flawed results, then modifying ..... and so forth for a period of 5-10 years. Now they have unlimited resources and will probably be able to get there faster. How fast? Ultimately it is a pure lottery. Trial and error. Nobody knows exactly what to do. The experts say that 1 year would be sensational.

Before that, it is impossible to “wipe the virus away”. You can’t go down to zero, start to contact trace confirmed cases and confine them once it is out like in NYC. I have seen Cuomo and CNN talk about this the last days. “We must get more tests and huge resources so that we can contact trace once we open up.” I have seen so many experts state that this is impossible/irrelevant once you have a wide spread in a society. This was the option before it was out, once it is out you can’t squeeze it down to those levels again. Probably over a million cases in NYC. Even if you get the R-value down to 0.5 it takes months to go from a million to a small number that you can confine, trace and quarantine effectively — and even then odds are that you will fail.

Are you talking about cases in regards to carriers? That number is in the millions by now if we include asymptomatic carriers including children. We have to remember that all this data is relying on whats being reported on available tests that have been taken. Those numbers are pathetic in comparison to the actual population.

 

[OverTheCap]

Have to agree with others about mass transit/MTA being a major obstacle.

In normal times, subways and commuter trains are delayed and crowded. Platforms are packed and the homeless population is a constant presence.

I'm sure some people will drive into work who previously hadn't, but driving/having access to a car isn't an option for a lot of people who commute into the city.

Some businesses will have staggered work times and allow their employees to come into work late and leave early, but I'm not sure if that's enough to help with crowding. It's damn near impossible to maintain 6 ft distance on a train, subway, or bus.

I haven't heard much yet about MTA plans to reduce crowding and improve conditions when we start to reopen, they really have their work cut out for them.

 

[NYSPORTS]

'Silent carriers:' Of 259 inmate COVID-19 cases, 98% in NC prison showing no symptoms :: WRAL.com

Who knows if the media got this one right. 259 inmates tested positive with 98% showing no symptoms.

Is there something genetic this virus targets? Is it mutating rapidly between a strain which kills one that does no harm? Like a herpes virus, does it need it a trigger to erupt?

Unsettling mystery.

 

[Gardner McKay]

You mean... *gasp* the beaches being packed image was fake news??? Shocked I tell you. SHOCKED. Not really.

 

[Ola]

W


Are you talking about cases in regards to carriers? That number is in the millions by now if we include asymptomatic carriers including children. We have to remember that all this data is relying on whats being reported on available tests that have been taken. Those numbers are pathetic in comparison to the actual population.

The numbers are very unsure.

But one way to guesstimate is to take number of deaths (8.300) in NYC / with the estimated mortality rate (0.66%) and you get = 1,300,000 infected people in NYC (everyone included).

That is 15.5% of the population in NYC. The one factor that could make that number too high is if long-term homes for elders became real heavens for the virus and those group caught it more than other groups. But if that isn’t the case that number seem like somewhat best guess at this point. In a few weeks we will know a lot more.

 

[Ola]

'Silent carriers:' Of 259 inmate COVID-19 cases, 98% in NC prison showing no symptoms :: WRAL.com

Who knows if the media got this one right. 259 inmates tested positive with 98% showing no symptoms.

Is there something genetic this virus targets? Is it mutating rapidly between a strain which kills one that does no harm? Like a herpes virus, does it need it a trigger to erupt?

Unsettling mystery.

That one is probably incorrect for some reason. There have surely been 100s of tests of this magnitude and I’ve not heard anything like it. Why should the prison be different than all those cruise/army ships etc?

 

[eco's bones]

Can't possibly see NYC reopening anytime soon unless mass testing enters the equation. And even at that point we are bound to have rolling lock downs. Mass transit is what will be an issue because of the population density that relies on it. Folks aiming for this June should start thinking about next June as being a safer call to return to somewhat normal reality. Taking this day by day but without large scale detection testing, antibody testing, contact tracing... it's just not happening on a federal level which is what's needed. The coordination is just not there. Better to cross fingers on some form of treatment or breakthrough drug comes into play.

New York and California are the two most important states to our economy so a lot depends on them but yeah I don't see anything going anywhere without massive testing---though people if enough of them are able to work from home could cut into the transit and density issues. It's going to have to be balanced with what other states are doing but the Federal govt. is going to have to step up to and so far we haven't seen enough of that.

 

[Fireonk]

You mean... *gasp* the beaches being packed image was fake news??? Shocked I tell you. SHOCKED. Not really.

I mean everyone realizes that both that drone shot AND that picture could be true and its just taken at different times and different areas? There are plenty of videos and pictures showing the beaches more crowded than the drone video there. So is the drone video also fake news?

 

[Irishguy42]

I mean everyone realizes that both that drone shot AND that picture could be true and its just taken at different times and different areas? There are plenty of videos and pictures showing the beaches more crowded than the drone video there. So is the drone video also fake news?

We are ALL fake news.

Earth is fake news.

 

[chosen]

A few thoughts:

Eco- I think you are spot on. Creating/building a vaccine will in all likelihood take years. It always is a process of testing, getting flawed results, modifying the vaccine, then testing again, getting flawed results, then modifying ..... and so forth for a period of 5-10 years. Now they have unlimited resources and will probably be able to get there faster. How fast? Ultimately it is a pure lottery. Trial and error. Nobody knows exactly what to do. The experts say that 1 year would be sensational.

I thought the H1N1 vaccine was available in 2009, in 7 months. Not saying that this will follow the same path, but what is the 5-10 years number based on?

 

[Fireonk]

We are ALL fake news.

Earth is fake news.

Thanks, now I also have an existential crisis.

 

[NYSPORTS]

You mean... *gasp* the beaches being packed image was fake news??? Shocked I tell you. SHOCKED. Not really.

the boys who cried wolf again (smh). And they get insulted when nobody believes their occasional truthful journalism.