OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19): Part V

[Fireonk]

I physically live near that beach. I can promise you it’s not as bad as being portrayed. And I’m still unsure how it’s any different than a normal large running or biking path. I’m not trying to be condescending but are all public streets and sidewalks closed all over the country? Our beach here is hard packed sand. So it’s utilized A LOT for exercising such as biking, walking and running.

Honestly, as far as this area goes, it should never have been closed. Just restrictions on numbers of people and no sitting and relaxing. People walk, bike and run on city streets all the time. The beaches here are wider than anything NYC has on the entire island.

I think that's fair. I am good with the idea of exercise only, no sitting and loitering around.

Was that picture making the rounds fake though? You made it seem like it wasn't legit. If it wasn't and the video in the article I linked was also legit I don't think you can blame "journalists" for reporting that. There were a good amount of people on that beach (assuming the picture and video are real) so I think its fair to discuss it.

 

[Barnaby]

I will say this, the beach, and parks for that matter, are places where social distancing is pretty easy to accomplish. Other than spring break scenarios, I can’t think of a situation I’ve ever been in where I’ve been on top of other people at the beach, and I grew up on the crowded Jersey shore (yes, I am fist pumping right now).

The closing down of public, open spaces has been a problem for me throughout this time. People’s tendency to completely ignore the rules and have group picnics and 5 on 5 basketball games have been a problem for me as well, but I go to the park near where I live now specifically to get away from people and to get some sun. Not being able to do that has been tough and feels unnecessary.

I agree with all of the above.

I think it's very difficult to enforce - especially long-term. Also, some freedoms will help people deal with things mentally and make it easier to abide by more important rules. People are more likely to deal with things such as eating in restaurants or bars a little bit easier if they have alternatives and not just a blanket 'stay home.'

 

[Machinehead]

I'm fine with the beach depending on what you do there.

A lot of our parks are open, but don't start a basketball game.

 

[NYR Viper]

 

[Ola]

So NYC has 8,600 deaths (Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count).

This study by Neil Ferguson (who is somewhat like Fauci but in Great Britain), seen as maybe the top virologist in the world, puts mortality rate at 0.66% (COVID-19: One in five over-80s need hospitalisation and death rate 0.66 per cent | Imperial News | Imperial College London).

NYC has 8.4m population. That puts NYC at 8,600 / 0.0066 = 1,300,000 people that have had or has Covid 19. Right? It’s the best estimate we can do at this point.

This mean that 1,300,000 / 8,400,000 = 15.5% of the population in NYC are immune.

Herd immunity is definitely a real factor in NYC.

In addition, Covid 19 does NOT hit us all equally. Most people that get sick in Covid 19 will of course be the people that are most likely to get sick in Covid 19. Buss drivers. Workers in the health care sector. Businessmen that traveled a lot and shook a lot of hands. Taxi cab drivers. You get my point.

So among the people “in the front line”, immunity will be — A LOT — higher than 15.5%. The same people will be in the front line when NYC opens up and have much higher protection.

 

[tbassler]

 

[Irishguy42]

Y'all vastly underestimate the stupidity of people and how quickly those beaches will fill up.

A drone shot showing the beaches are semi-empty a few hours ago. Wow. Let me know in two weeks how it's going.

Also, I never said I approved of DeBlasio? People who do that exist? *checks notes*

 

[MyLoveIsBlue]

 

[NYRFAN218]

I don't think there's been a single person in any of these threads that has approved of DeBlasio's handling of this (or really anything he does in general) at all and the argument is certainly there that things blew up in NYC and the surrounding areas because things weren't locked down sooner.

Also helps that no area in the country really comes close to how densely populated NYC is.

 

[Do you want ants]

Y'all vastly underestimate the stupidity of people and how quickly those beaches will fill up.

A drone shot showing the beaches are semi-empty a few hours ago. Wow. Let me know in two weeks how it's going.

Also, I never said I approved of DeBlasio? People who do that exist? *checks notes*

As long as the rules are enforced it’s not much of an issue. If beaches become an issue they’ll just shut down and close the public parking and public access areas.

There are dump people everywhere. The same people that will hangout in large groups at the beach are the same ones that currently do it at public parks and other venues. Hell, people already do it at “essential businesses” currently, at least the beach isn’t an enclosed space like the grocery store.

 

[NYRFAN218]

So NYC has 8,600 deaths (Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count).

This study by Neil Ferguson (who is somewhat like Fauci but in Great Britain), seen as maybe the top virologist in the world, puts mortality rate at 0.66% (COVID-19: One in five over-80s need hospitalisation and death rate 0.66 per cent | Imperial News | Imperial College London).

NYC has 8.4m population. That puts NYC at 8,600 / 0.0066 = 1,300,000 people that have had or has Covid 19. Right? It’s the best estimate we can do at this point.

This mean that 1,300,000 / 8,400,000 = 15.5% of the population in NYC are immune.

Herd immunity is definitely a real factor in NYC.

In addition, Covid 19 does NOT hit us all equally. Most people that get sick in Covid 19 will of course be the people that are most likely to get sick in Covid 19. Buss drivers. Workers in the health care sector. Businessmen that traveled a lot and shook a lot of hands. Taxi cab drivers. You get my point.

So among the people “in the front line”, immunity will be — A LOT — higher than 15.5%. The same people will be in the front line when NYC opens up and have much higher protection.

The immunity thing is interesting to me because who knows how long those people who have gotten infected previously will have that immunity. I was reading the other day that the WHO is unsure if the antibodies provide fully immunity to the virus and if they do, how long it lasts. I don't think anyone really knows given how new it is still. But I do think a large part of NYC has been exposed already so we should do better when it comes to there being a second or third wave at least compared to other areas.

 

[NYSPORTS]

the media lied? Shocking . . . Not

 

[Ola]

The immunity thing is interesting to me because who knows how long those people who have gotten infected previously will have that immunity. I was reading the other day that the WHO is unsure if the antibodies provide fully immunity to the virus and if they do, how long it lasts. I don't think anyone really knows given how new it is still. But I do think a large part of NYC has been exposed already so we should do better when it comes to there being a second or third wave at least compared to other areas.

Yeah, but I have also seen many experts question how that report was formulated by the WHO.

Nobody know for sure, true, but supposedly there is no reason whatsoever to not expect significant immunity from Covid 19.

I heard how Britain’s “Fauci” has described it like a boxer standing with his guard down and eyes shut without any immunity — and hence the first blow does a lot of damage. After that first blow the boxer will be prepared — but at different degrees.

Looking at lessons learned from previous viruses, it would supposedly be very very surprising if the immunity you get from Covid 19 doesn’t at the very least prevent you from getting very sick again. It’s surprising if you even can get sick again. But if that does happen, the boxer will at the very least have it’s guard up.

 

[Machinehead]

Let me preface by saying that I'm not a doctor, and for those of you who think that I think I "know everything," I know nothing, and I just read a lot.

But based on different things I've read, here's my thought. All of the numbers are inaccurate to a degree. I think we all agree on that. It's just too hard to manage perfectly. I also think we can agree, however, that hospitalizations and deaths are a lot easier to get a beat on than total cases. If you're in the hospital or you die, we know you were in the hospital or died. Meanwhile, low-grade or asymptomatic people get over it and don't give it a second thought. They never report. Even moderately symptomatic people who can just stay home and self-manage likely aren't getting tested.

What I'm saying is, if we know for sure you've had it, you probably had it bad. Bad enough to require documented treatment or suffer documented death.

We've read before about different strains and how viruses naturally make themselves less severe because mobile illness spreads more easily and severe illness immobilizes. Natural selection. I'm beginning to think it's possible -and this would be a very good thing moving forward- that the worst of this is already isolated.

 

[MyLoveIsBlue]

 

[Machinehead]

View attachment 342501 View attachment 342501

I wish somebody would bite me at this point.

Bad time in history to be single.

 

[Leetch3]

current bid for his helmet is $13k

 

[Machinehead]

current bid for his helmet is $13k

You could buy me for less than that.




A lot less than that.

 

[eco's bones]

Let me preface by saying that I'm not a doctor, and for those of you who think that I think I "know everything," I know nothing, and I just read a lot.

But based on different things I've read, here's my thought. All of the numbers are inaccurate to a degree. I think we all agree on that. It's just too hard to manage perfectly. I also think we can agree, however, that hospitalizations and deaths are a lot easier to get a beat on than total cases. If you're in the hospital or you die, we know you were in the hospital or died. Meanwhile, low-grade or asymptomatic people get over it and don't give it a second thought. They never report. Even moderately symptomatic people who can just stay home and self-manage likely aren't getting tested.

What I'm saying is, if we know for sure you've had it, you probably had it bad. Bad enough to require documented treatment or suffer documented death.

We've read before about different strains and how viruses naturally make themselves less severe because mobile illness spreads more easily and severe illness immobilizes. Natural selection. I'm beginning to think it's possible -and this would be a very good thing moving forward- that the worst of this is already isolated.

There are a lot of people and particularly younger people who do not have health insurance or are underinsured and more often than not it's because they can't afford it. Younger people have stronger immune systems and likely will not go to a hospital or doctor if they're not insured unless it's kind of a last resort and sometimes not even then. So I'm sure there have plenty of them particularly in late February and the early part of March before the shit hit the fan. They just rode it out and if they passed it along---quite often they passed it along without even knowing. We never had a good grip on this thing to begin with and our particular kind of health care system is a great part of the problem. Health care is the biggest cause of bankruptcies in the country. To me we were set up to fail right from the get go and then on top of everything we were getting all kinds of mixed messaging from the POTUS or at least that is when he wasn't f***ing off at the golf course.

Officially though NYS has had 236,000+ cases--we could have had twice or even more. There's no way of telling. My wife was sick at the end of February--she passed it along to me in the first week of March--my daughter and son each had it for a couple days. For all I know we've already done it....but maybe not and other than an antibody test I don't really want to find out.

 

[Leetch3]

You could buy me for less than that.




A lot less than that.

but people might want his helmet

 

[Machinehead]

but people might want his helmet

No arguments here.

I'm a nice guy and I bake a mean batch of cookies but I'm no Henrik Lundqvist.

 

[Machinehead]

There are a lot of people and particularly younger people who do not have health insurance or are underinsured and more often than not it's because they can't afford it. Younger people have stronger immune systems and likely will not go to a hospital or doctor if they're not insured unless it's kind of a last resort and sometimes not even then. So I'm sure there have plenty of them particularly in late February and the early part of March before the shit hit the fan. They just rode it out and if they passed it along---quite often they passed it along without even knowing. We never had a good grip on this thing to begin with and our particular kind of health care system is a great part of the problem. Health care is the biggest cause of bankruptcies in the country. To me we were set up to fail right from the get go and then on top of everything we were getting all kinds of mixed messaging from the POTUS or at least that is when he wasn't f***ing off at the golf course.

Officially though NYS has had 236,000+ cases--we could have had twice or even more. There's no way of telling. My wife was sick at the end of February--she passed it along to me in the first week of March--my daughter and son each had it for a couple days. For all I know we've already done it....but maybe not and other than an antibody test I don't really want to find out.

Yeah, the access to healthcare issue is very unique to the United States and I think that's why, even though it's a problem everywhere, you're seeing some unique results here.

I'm just hoping at this point, because hope is all we have, that the aftershocks are less bad here because of the way it spread unreported. There's going to be a lot more immunity here than in other places.

Of course, that doesn't mean it completely goes away, not in the least. I'm rooting for a flat reemergence without a major surge. Because this sucks ass and people are hurting financially. People will need to be smart and put up with light to moderate precautions for awhile. The alternative is we all get sick again and go back to extreme precautions. Pick your poison.

 

[Machinehead]

De Blasio said there's a chance we may go back to school in September, and as much as he's a clown, I agree with him on that.

That said, my school and a lot of the other colleges told us to prepare for staying online for the rest of 2020. Why? Because we can. Younger kids need to be socialized in a way that college students don't.

People who have to go back to work should be sent back to work carefully. Anybody who can work from home and make the same money while reasonably getting the same accomplished, should just do that for awhile. It just makes sense and makes it easier on those going back out.

I think we'll use the summer semester as a litmus to see where enrollment and academic achievement are. It will go down some degree, I'm sure of that, but if it's close enough, we'll just stay home.

It's not my favorite thing, but it's a relatively small ask.

 

[eco's bones]

Yeah, the access to healthcare issue is very unique to the United States and I think that's why, even though it's a problem everywhere, you're seeing some unique results here.

I'm just hoping at this point, because hope is all we have, that the aftershocks are less bad here because of the way it spread unreported. There's going to be a lot more immunity here than in other places.

Of course, that doesn't mean it completely goes away, not in the least. I'm rooting for a flat reemergence without a major surge. Because this sucks ass and people are hurting financially. People will need to be smart and put up with light to moderate precautions for awhile. The alternative is we all get sick again and go back to extreme precautions. Pick your poison.

My worry is we go into a round 2 because we rush back too quickly. That we might be better off with more of a grace period. So when we go back we take our time and are careful about doing it. I look at some of these protests in other states and I'm thinking some of these people are really asking for it--that they don't so much see the tragedy in all this but more their personal inconvenience.

The cases are going down but there still may be a lot more dying to do in the hospitals. Looking at places like Italy and Spain---they're still losing 5/600 people a day. Over a month of that in Italy and almost a month in Spain. That takes a real toll on people that have to deal with it.

 

[Machinehead]

My worry is we go into a round 2 because we rush back too quickly. That we might be better off with more of a grace period. So when we go back we take our time and are careful about doing it. I look at some of these protests in other states and I'm thinking some of these people are really asking for it--that they don't so much see the tragedy in all this but more their personal inconvenience.

The cases are going down but there still may be a lot more dying to do in the hospitals. Looking at places like Italy and Spain---they're still losing 5/600 people a day. Over a month of that in Italy and almost a month in Spain. That takes a real toll on people that have to deal with it.

Oh yeah, for sure. I talked about a smart, managed emergence but my gut feeling is that you would wanna start something like that maybe June 1st, not now.

Cuomo said yesterday that the shutdown is definitely extended to May 15th. I think he'll give some serious consideration to where we are at that point. A month makes a world of difference with this thing.