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OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part III

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Much like how people don’t die from Corona virus, they die of resulting complications like pneumonia, the shadow death toll and damage will far exceed just the virus cases. People who need treatment for other issues may not get it. Others will become insolvent or homeless. Savings retirement funds will be depleted. The ripple effects will be endless. Our great city has been brought low by an invisible microscopic enemy. And we are basically left to fend ourselves. We have been caught in reactive mode despite ample forewarning. All way can do now is stay inside and wait for the storm to pass.
 
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Crease said:
New York went into formal stay-at-home effective six days ago. Since the incubation period can be 14 days or more, the numbers we're seeing might still largely reflect pre-measures. Hopefully the curve will begin flattening end of next week.
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streets and side parks are still flooded with people as if it’s Spring Break. I think too many are in position to share the virus for that curve to flatten out.
 
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The COVID responses from the US and Korea in sharp relief:

The missing six weeks: how Trump failed the biggest test of his life

“We are seeing the emergence of 50-state anarchy, because of a total vacuum of federal leadership. It’s absurd that thinktanks and Twitter are providing more actionable guidance in the US than the federal government, but that’s where we are.”
 
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Crease said:
New York went into formal stay-at-home effective six days ago. Since the incubation period can be 14 days or more, the numbers we're seeing might still largely reflect pre-measures. Hopefully the curve will begin flattening end of next week.
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This is my sincere hope as well.

But IMO, the game changer will be those test kits from Abbott. The way to beat this – until such time as we have effective vaccines/therapies (which is projected to take as long as 12-18 months, though they're trying to goose the timeline) – is to test the f*** out of people, identify carriers, and utterly isolate them all for 14 days. I just don't know how quickly they can get to the scale they need to achieve to be effective producing 50K/day (starting on Weds).
 
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What we really need is an immunity test and certification. If you can easily test that someone is now immune, you can get them to work right away. They don't need to isolate. You'd need a very strong way of certifying this and identifying people who are approved to be out but if we could do that we can start getting a small percentage of businesses open... Etc.
 
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Crease said:
New York went into formal stay-at-home effective six days ago. Since the incubation period can be 14 days or more, the numbers we're seeing might still largely reflect pre-measures. Hopefully the curve will begin flattening end of next week.
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Cuomo in his conference 2 days ago assumed the APEX would happen in about 21-22 days
 
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NYSPORTS said:
streets and side parks are still flooded with people as if it’s Spring Break. I think too many are in position to share the virus for that curve to flatten out.
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they gave too many reasons and excuses to be able to leave the house...people might be social distancing, but I think some people are going out more now cause they were told not to then they did before. people that haven't gone outside or gotten off their phones in years suddenly will die if they don't jog or go for a bike ride lol
 
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I think there are a lot of cities and states in this country that are still not taking this seriously enough and even after NYC and NYS get over the hump this is still going to go on for a long time. It may be that 6/7/8/9 months down the road airports in NY will still be shut down and maybe more to keep others from bringing it back to us.

We need more testing--we need people to stop f***ing around and start taking distancing seriously---and we need a vaccine. And on testing being able to self test would be best because you might be clean one day and not the next. It could be two/three years before things really return to normal.

209 dead today in NYS--ten days/two weeks from now we could be up to 500/600 a day and it may go higher after that--it did in Italy. This is why the ventilators. I hope not but I think we're kind of on the Italy/Spain trend. Again that's why the need for the ventilators and all the other stuff that goes with it and the strain that this going to put on our health care system and those who work in it is going to be something else.
 
Leetch3 said:
they gave too many reasons and excuses to be able to leave the house...people might be social distancing, but I think some people are going out more now cause they were told not to then they did before. people that haven't gone outside or gotten off their phones in years suddenly will die if they don't jog or go for a bike ride lol
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sadly, I agree. I imagine if Facebook ever shut down millions would demonstrate more panic than if they were out of food.
 
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Not necessarily the source you'd expect but Clint does a good job of breaking stuff down. (He's also a great educational channel when it comes to reptiles too lol)

 
First cat diagnosed with coronavirus. Got it from its owner.
 
Baby Duck Homme said:
My wife likes disaster movies. She watches them all the time. We are basically living through one right now.
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how long until the whores of Hollywood make a movie about this? Hardly healed, a mere five years after 9/11 Nicholas Cage was featured in a hack movie version.
 
will1066 said:
They already made it. It's called Outbreak.

Oh, and Contagion.
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in contagion people started bleeding out a couple days after being exposed, the virus was very different. The sequence of events also included a lot of violence and lawlessness in the streets, we have not seen that (yet) here But there will be panic eventually, people don't realize how long we're going to be in for - the worse is yet to come
 
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eco's bones said:
209 dead today in NYS--ten days/two weeks from now we could be up to 500/600 a day and it may go higher after that--it did in Italy. This is why the ventilators. I hope not but I think we're kind of on the Italy/Spain trend. Again that's why the need for the ventilators and all the other stuff that goes with it and the strain that this going to put on our health care system and those who work in it is going to be something else.
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WARNING: VERY SMALL SAMPLE SET

This is FAR from certain, but both confirmed cases and deaths in NYS have been above 1.35x/day over the 22 day period since over 20 confirmed cases / 12 day period since over 5 deaths

Total deaths in NYS
(Source: 91-DIVOC : Flip the script on COVID-19)

Day 0 - 11: 1.43x Avg

Day 12: 728 / DoD Change: 1.40x
Day: 11: 519 / DoD Change: 1.35x
Day 10: 385 / DoD Change: 1.35x
Day 9: 285 / DoD Change: 1.36x
Day 8: 210 / DoD Change: 1.33x
Day 7: 158 / DoD Change: 1.35x
Day 6: 117 / DoD Change: 1.95x
Day 5: 60 / DoD Change: 1.43x
Day 4: 42 / DoD Change: 1.24x
Day 3: 34 / DoD Change: 2.13x
Day 2: 16 / DoD Change: 1.23x
Day 1: 13 / DoD Change: 1.30x
Day 0: 10

Excluding China/Iran where there are some obvious issues w/ data accuracy, overall death rate multiplier of countries with data through Day 19:

Day 12 - Day 19: Avg Death Growth Rate in 7 day period
South Korea: 1.06x/day
Italy: 1.26x/day
Spain: 1.27x/day
France: 1.32x/day


If the above is any example, New York on Day 19 alone (7 days from today) could have between: 366 - 4355 deaths. The US needs to get South Korea numbers FAST
 
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