Connor McDavid with 91 pts in last 84 games

[djdub]

I would have made this post in November. In fact, I have consistently stated that I do not believe McDavid is on the level that many believe him to be.

While he is a high-end player, I do not believe he will ever separate himself from the rest and enter his own tier. His game is heavily reliant on speed and quick, smooth stick-handling skills; he has not shown the vision or innovation to prove that he can be too much better than he currently is.

As soon as he entered the NHL, I posited that some of his dominance at the CHL level would not translate to the NHL.

https://www.nhl.com/news/connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel-comparison/c-279787684


He overwhelms the opposition with explosive rushes, and has excellent hand-eye coordination; he can pounce on a loose puck very quickly. His shot, however, is underwhelming, and he needs a clear field of view of where his teammates are to make a play -- too often, he has turned the puck over with a blind pass and has shown moments of poor judgment.

His skill set is enough for him to be a top-level player at the NHL level, but I do not think he will ever transcend the rest of the league.

This is a blind exaggeration. Too often? How did you come to that conclusion? Can you show some evidence of these plays happening so often? I've watched every game this year and wouldn't classify these plays as happening "often".

He has been praised by team mates, that it is incredible how often he makes the right play.

 

[Tom Collins]

Malkin's rookie season was infinitely more impresssive than McDavid. This "first 82 games" nonsense is just made up anyways.



Also according to what was actually done on the ice, McDavid is about the same level as Kucherov like was previously pointed out





you just said we were only talking about rookies..........................

No, if you're going to say they're on the same level, compare them properly.

McDavid's rookie year - GP:45 G:16 A:32 P:48 1.06ppg
Kucherov's rookie year - GP:52 G:9 A:9 P:18 0.34ppg

Or, since you'll argue that in some way, let's look at their sophomore seasons.

McDavid - GP:39 G:14 A:29 P:43 1.10ppg*
Kucherov - GP:82 G:28 A:36 P:64 0.78ppg
*in progress

 

[djdub]

No, if you're going to say they're on the same level, compare them properly.

McDavid's rookie year - GP:45 G:16 A:32 P:48 1.06ppg
Kucherov's rookie year - GP:52 G:9 A:9 P:18 0.34ppg

Or, since you'll argue that in some way, let's look at their sophomore seasons.

McDavid - GP:39 G:14 A:29 P:43 1.10ppg*
Kucherov - GP:82 G:28 A:36 P:64 0.78ppg
*in progress

Well apparently, according to this thread, McDavid isn't getting any better, he's peaked and it's all downhill from here on out, so it's fine to compare him now to Kucherov.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Also, just to note, when you're comparing McDavid's point totals to Crosby's first full season for instance, scoring is way down leaguewide compared to what it was that season so 90 points in 82 games now is way more impressive than it would have been in '05-'06. Also keep in mind that McDavid has no high end offensive defensemen to get him the puck in transition.

Why don't you compare 19 year old Crosby to McDavid at the same age?

 

[daver]

The way things stand now, McDavid looks to be heading for a Malkin level sophomore season. Very impressive but not quite the best. He looks to be on track to be the best player since Crosby/OV.

 

[JA]

This is a blind exaggeration. Too often? How did you come to that conclusion? Can you show some evidence of these plays happening so often? I've watched every game this year and wouldn't classify these plays as happening "often".

He has been praised by team mates, that it is incredible how often he makes the right play.

My point is not to say that he makes bad plays frequently, but to say that he does not possess the vision to make plays without having his head up to constantly analyze. Playmaking is not as effortless to him as it is to Crosby; he makes crisp passes and pulls the opposition out of position with his speed, but he does not effortlessly read plays. His playmaking is about precise passes and his own positioning, but his hockey IQ is a notch below Crosby's.

Last season, he had a tendency to cut around the outside at full speed, bring the opposing defender towards him, then blindly flip the puck into the slot for his winger. This play used to work for him with the Erie Otters, but has not been very fruitful for him at the NHL level. At the CHL level, he overwhelmed the opposition with his speed and exploited their poor sense of defensive positioning. Parts of his game from junior have not translated; as I said, his skill set will allow him to be a top-level player at the NHL level, but he will not separate himself from the pack.

 

[McFlyingV]

Are you saying McDavid is immune to slumps? If not this slump is part of his season and career. More so it is likely he will have move slumps in his career. That is why we look at the whole season and not arbitrary parts. It's also the same reason we do not remove hot streaks, since those are also part of the season/career.

To the bolded, no I didn't say that, can you point that out for me? Of course he'll have ups and downs every player does. You pointing to looking at a full season when we're not even half way through is odd. My point was its very convenient to hop on a player when he's slumping, just like its very convenient to hype a player when he's hot (I'm well aware it goes both ways). How about we wait until the seasons over before whatever criticisms we want to pile on the kid. Looking solely at his first 82 games he's in elite company when you factor in the current scoring levels in the NHL. The only players with arguably better first 82NHL games in the last 10 years are Crosby and Ovechkin and even thats hard to compare. I certainly can't validate his ranking in PPG among the league as an accurate measure, but it at least seems like a somewhat logical way of doing it, more-so than comparing raw point totals from different eras.

December 11, 2016: When challenged about my view of McDavid, I responded.

McDavid tallied an assist that night, and had just scored his 20th point in a 13-game span.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=125542653&postcount=31

My opinions have been extremely consistent. I have never been afraid to state my case as to why McDavid will not separate himself from the rest of the league. I also believe that he is closer to reaching his peak than some of his peers.

Alexander Ovechkin peaked at the age of 22, in his third NHL season. Patrick Kane, a more cerebral player, peaked last season at the age of 27.

I'm also quite certain you claimed Eichel would be the better player at one point or another, but I didn't see you come clean on that when McDavid (so far) has proved you wrong. Many of your criticisms aren't coherent with reality, and I very much doubt that you watch him enough to make a sound analysis of his game. All these blind passes that you think he makes that is unique to him doesn't match what I or I'm sure most people who watch him are seeing. Calling out a lack of vision is somewhat mind boggling to me given how many times he clearly surprises his line mates with back door passes that they clearly aren't ready for and don't expect him to get through to them.

As for your peak age examples. You've provided 1 example of a player peaking statistically at a younger age, and that just so happens to conveniently coincide with a changing of era. The data out there does not show that forwards peak at age 22, and what is known in the scientific community is also that athletic and physiological functioning does not peak until the mid to late 20's. You're going to have to try harder if you want to back a claim about when McDavid will "probably peak".

 

[Auston Marlander]

To the bolded, no I didn't say that, can you point that out for me? Of course he'll have ups and downs every player does. You pointing to looking at a full season when we're not even half way through is odd. My point was its very convenient to hop on a player when he's slumping, just like its very convenient to hype a player when he's hot (I'm well aware it goes both ways). How about we wait until the seasons over before whatever criticisms we want to pile on the kid. Looking solely at his first 82 games he's in elite company when you factor in the current scoring levels in the NHL. The only players with arguably better first 82NHL games in the last 10 years are Crosby and Ovechkin and even thats hard to compare. I certainly can't validate his ranking in PPG among the league as an accurate measure, but it at least seems like a somewhat logical way of doing it, more-so than comparing raw point totals from different eras.

See that thing at the end. That's a question mark, indicating I am asking you a question, not making a statement.

Furthermore this is a thread about what he has done over his career, which is 91 points in 84 games (which is great), including both slumps and hot streaks. Not sure your issue with that.

You are far to sensitive, might want to take a step back and breath.

 

[daver]

Also, just to note, when you're comparing McDavid's point totals to Crosby's first full season for instance, scoring is way down leaguewide compared to what it was that season so 90 points in 82 games now is way more impressive than it would have been in '05-'06. Also keep in mind that McDavid has no high end offensive defensemen to get him the puck in transition.

Makes more sense to compare McDavid to Crosby's sophomore year than his rookie year. And also keep in mind that McDavid's linemates were better than Crosby's if you want to play that game.

So 90 points/82 in today's league is not as impressive as 125points/82 in 2006/07. Even if we go with Crosby's last 41 games from his rookie year and 1st 41 games from his sophomore year, it's still 125 points per 82.

 

[McFlyingV]

See that thing at the end. That's a question mark, indicating I am asking you a question, not making a statement.

Furthermore this is a thread about what he has done over his career, which is 91 points in 84 games (which is great), including both slumps and hot streaks. Not sure your issue with that.

You are far to sensitive, might want to take a step back and breath.

Nothing in my post suggested I was saying that so I'm really not sure why you inferred it.

I'm really not sure where I've been sensitive at all. Discussing something and disagreeing with another poster is not being sensitive. If you think it is then perhaps you are too sensitive for debate.

 

[JA]

I'm also quite certain you claimed Eichel would be the better player at one point or another, but I didn't see you come clean on that when McDavid (so far) has proved you wrong. Many of your criticisms aren't coherent with reality, and I very much doubt that you watch him enough to make a sound analysis of his game. All these blind passes that you think he makes that is unique to him doesn't match what I or I'm sure most people who watch him are seeing. Calling out a lack of vision is somewhat mind boggling to me given how many times he clearly surprises his line mates with back door passes that they clearly aren't ready for and don't expect him to get through to them.

I believe that Jack Eichel has a slower development trajectory than McDavid. This season, he has 13 points in 16 games, which is a significant improvement over last season.

His skill set is more varied than McDavid's. He has come nowhere close to reaching his potential, nor has he learned to harness his abilities on a consistent basis. There is more room for him to grow as a player. I believe that, at his peak, he will be a much better player than he is now. There is significant room for him to improve.

I have watched many of McDavid's games this year and last. The Oilers are one of the premier teams to watch.

As for your peak age examples. You've provided 1 example of a player peaking statistically at a younger age, and that just so happens to conveniently coincide with a changing of era. The data out there does not show that forwards peak at age 22, and what is known in the scientific community is also that athletic and physiological functioning does not peak until the mid to late 20's. You're going to have to try harder if you want to back a claim about when McDavid will "probably peak".

Nothing can be proven about a player's future; we only have opinions and hypotheses at this point. This is not hockey history. You are an Oilers supporter, so I understand that you are very passionate about your player.

My view is that he is closer to reaching his full potential than some of his peers.

All we can do is wait. My beliefs are different than yours. It seems that McDavid has disappointed relative to the expectations of some. He has been exactly what I have expected him to be so far.

 

[crazychimp]

Why are we comparing a sophomore kids 84 games to established players last 84 games?

What did these players first 84 games of their NHL careers look like?

And for anyone who thinks Mcdavid is the best player in the NHL right now, I can think of a couple who are better and at least one who is certainly better in Crosby.

I don't get it either. He's a great player, fun to watch, will have a great career. None the less the Oilers fan-base hasn't seen playoff hockey in years and it looks like they'll finally get a taste, so who cares about statistics and comparing player a to player b, it's a team game and team success is what comes first. Do you think Crosby cares about his Art Ross/ Hart trophies or does he care more about those two Stanley Cups?

 

[McFlyingV]

Makes more sense to compare McDavid to Crosby's sophomore year than his rookie year. And also keep in mind that McDavid's linemates were better than Crosby's if you want to play that game.

So 90 points/82 in today's league is not as impressive as 125points/82 in 2006/07. Even if we go with Crosby's last 41 games from his rookie year and 1st 41 games from his sophomore year, it's still 125 points per 82.

Definitely not arguing McDavid is better to this point as Crosby was at the same point in his career because I don't think he has been. But I also think those raw numbers unfairly show a wider gap than reality. I'm not sure how to find the splits for those games played but its interesting that Pittsburgh has 495 PP opportunities in 2005-06 to Edmonton's 237 in 15-16. Would be interesting to compare their EV strength points over the split you mentioned (although I believe you should be looking at McDavid and Crosby's first 45 NHL games, and then their first 39 from their Sophomore year for a fair comparison, as I'm sure McDavid wasn't improving at hockey somehow in the time he was injured, the way that Sid many have been by gaining NHL experience from playing).

 

[McFlyingV]

I believe that Jack Eichel has a slower development trajectory than McDavid. This season, he has 13 points in 16 games, which is a significant improvement over last season.

His skill set is more varied than McDavid's. He has come nowhere close to reaching his potential, nor has he learned to harness his abilities on a consistent basis. There is more room for him to grow as a player. I believe that, at his peak, he will be a much better player than he is now.

I have watched many of McDavid's games this year and last. The Oilers are one of the premier teams to watch.

Nothing can be proven about a player's future; we only have opinions and hypotheses at this point. This is not hockey history. You are an Oilers supporter, so I understand that you are very passionate about your player.

My view is that he is closer to reaching his full potential than some of his peers.

All we can do is wait. My beliefs are different than yours.

I don't think there's enough tangible evidence to form a reasonable hypothesis on this. For example, I could say Eichel is much more physically developed than McDavid at this point and that there's much more room for him to grow in that regard which will translate to his on-ice weaknesses, but that really doesn't make it any more credible.

We can agree on that though, we share different beliefs on the matter.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Malkin's rookie season was infinitely more impresssive than McDavid. This "first 82 games" nonsense is just made up anyways.

lol what? Was his rookie season "infinitely more impressive" because he played more games? Malkin's scoring pace was almost identical, with the only difference being that league scoring was way higher in 06-07 than it is now - if anything it's much less impressive. And the "first 82 games" being "made up" (I assume you mean arbitrary) is no more arbitrary than choosing to use only the games played in the player's first season, even if it was cut short by injury.

 

[JA]

I don't think there's enough tangible evidence to form a reasonable hypothesis on this. For example, I could say Eichel is much more physically developed than McDavid at this point and that there's much more room for him to grow in that regard which will translate to his on-ice weaknesses, but that really doesn't make it any more credible.

We can agree on that though, we share different beliefs on the matter.

Jesse Puljujarvi is another player who requires development and patience. He possesses the skill set to become an excellent player, but I suspect that we will not see him reach his potential for several seasons. One would be correct to say that McDavid is closer at this point to reaching his full potential than Puljujarvi is. Different players have different development trajectories. Not every player develops at the same rate. McDavid is further along than some of his peers. In their prime years, I think that there will be very little space between McDavid and some of his contemporaries. I don't think that McDavid will be on his own tier as Crosby currently is.

Very little can be proven at this point, so there is very little here beyond the offering of our own opinions; I am glad that this discussion has been civil.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Comparing rookie seasons over a two season stretch doesn't seem very fair. Backstrom has 44 points through 39 games in his second season, and Stamkos had 39 points with 21 goals.

Sure its unfair to compare McDavid's last 39 games to these players since the other players had a full season under their belt but to call it anything remotely close to a rookie season is wrong.

If we extrapolate based on the 48 points in 45 games he got in his rookie season, it projects to 87 points over 82 games, so it's not like he's suddenly scoring at a way higher pace this season. In any case he's the best rookie to enter the NHL since Ovechkin and Crosby, and the only other guy who comes close is Matthews.

 

[hamzarocks]

I bet mcdavid has a 3 pts game next game and goes off for the next 8-9 games. There was a sImola thread earlier in the season when he had 4 or 5 pts in 10 games and scored a Hatrick the game that thread was posted. While I don't see mcdavid as the best player in the nhl. He has all the talent in the world to take the crown from crosby (though it won't be as easy a task as a lot of people here think)

 

[McFlyingV]

Jesse Puljujarvi is another player who requires development and patience. He possesses the skill set to become an excellent player, but I suspect that we will not see him reach his potential for several seasons.

Very little can be proven at this point, so there is very little here beyond the offering of our own opinions; I am glad that this discussion has been civil.

Fair enough. I agree with that in Jesse because I think he needs a lot of polishing in his game to really hit his stride, but I think he possesses the tools that once he does he will be a great player. Then again I also think Eichel will be a great player and could be a top 5 forward in the NHL. However, I think Eichel is much more polished than a player like Jesse, and don't know that he has as much room to grow as someone like Puljujarvi. With that said I still think McDavid has quite a bit of room to grow.

As I said he's one of the most underdeveloped players physically that I've seen have this kind of impact on the NHL this early. He definitely has the frame imo to become much stronger and harder to knock off pucks, and still has room to improve his shot quite a bit. Doesn't mean it will happen anymore than your beliefs, but I just think McDavid's hands and skating combo and ability to process the game at such high speed is something no up and coming player in this league will have. That ability to process the game at the speeds he goes is something I don't think you give him enough credit for when you criticize his vision. Crosby probably does have better vision and IQ, but he's also never travelling at speeds McDavid is when he's making those passes.


Also just going to add it onto this post even though its an add-on to my earlier post to Daver.

I looked up McDavid and Crosby's numbers for their first 45 games from their rookie seasons, and first 39 from their sophomore seasons and while I couldn't find 5 on 5 numbers I looked at just non-PP production. Crosby had 68P in 84 games, and McDavid had 64P in 84 games. Now thats still not an entirely fair comparison to Sid because there was about an extra 4 penalties per game difference (between both teams in a game) in 05-06 + 06-07 vs 15-16 + 16-17, however, I have no way of actually checking how much less even strength TOI that would have given Crosby compared to McDavid.

 

[Creativero]

To the bolded, no I didn't say that, can you point that out for me? Of course he'll have ups and downs every player does. You pointing to looking at a full season when we're not even half way through is odd. My point was its very convenient to hop on a player when he's slumping, just like its very convenient to hype a player when he's hot (I'm well aware it goes both ways). How about we wait until the seasons over before whatever criticisms we want to pile on the kid. Looking solely at his first 82 games he's in elite company when you factor in the current scoring levels in the NHL. The only players with arguably better first 82NHL games in the last 10 years are Crosby and Ovechkin and even thats hard to compare. I certainly can't validate his ranking in PPG among the league as an accurate measure, but it at least seems like a somewhat logical way of doing it, more-so than comparing raw point totals from different eras.



I'm also quite certain you claimed Eichel would be the better player at one point or another, but I didn't see you come clean on that when McDavid (so far) has proved you wrong. Many of your criticisms aren't coherent with reality, and I very much doubt that you watch him enough to make a sound analysis of his game. All these blind passes that you think he makes that is unique to him doesn't match what I or I'm sure most people who watch him are seeing. Calling out a lack of vision is somewhat mind boggling to me given how many times he clearly surprises his line mates with back door passes that they clearly aren't ready for and don't expect him to get through to them.

As for your peak age examples. You've provided 1 example of a player peaking statistically at a younger age, and that just so happens to conveniently coincide with a changing of era. The data out there does not show that forwards peak at age 22, and what is known in the scientific community is also that athletic and physiological functioning does not peak until the mid to late 20's. You're going to have to try harder if you want to back a claim about when McDavid will "probably peak".

I think people read way to far into the "LW peak a 22.3". The NHL is so competitive now that the system/role/linemates/fit/health are going outweight whatever the physiological difference between a 22 and 29yo is. You're obviously always going to be able to find an average age when players peak, but saying catagory Y players peak at age Z implies a stronger causal relationship than what really exists. Honestly just saying players generally peak between the age of 20-30 is about as strong of a statement you can really make. You can't dominate just based on physical skills as much as you could in the past.

 

[12345678910]

No, if you're going to say they're on the same level, compare them properly.

McDavid's rookie year - GP:45 G:16 A:32 P:48 1.06ppg
Kucherov's rookie year - GP:52 G:9 A:9 P:18 0.34ppg

Or, since you'll argue that in some way, let's look at their sophomore seasons.

McDavid - GP:39 G:14 A:29 P:43 1.10ppg*
Kucherov - GP:82 G:28 A:36 P:64 0.78ppg
*in progress

He never said Kucherov as a rookie. He said Kucherov right now. Which he is equivocal now. Use whatever semantics you want. There's not a discernible difference between the two at this point and time.

 

[McFlyingV]

I think people read way to far into the "LW peak a 22.3". The NHL is so competitive now that the system/role/linemates/fit/health are going outweight whatever the physiological difference between a 22 and 29yo is. You're obviously always going to be able to find an average age when players peak, but saying catagory Y players peak at age Z implies a stronger causal relationship than what really exists. Honestly just saying players generally peak between the age of 20-30 is about as strong of a statement you can really make. You can't dominate just based on physical skills as much as you could in the past.

Thats very true, and averages are just simply that. There's really no way to know or even infer when a unique individual in unique circumstances is going to peak statistically in the NHL. Between 20-30 is probably your safest bet, but leaves a lot of room for discrepancies.

 

[McFlyingV]

He never said Kucherov as a rookie. He said Kucherov right now. Which he is equivocal now. Use whatever semantics you want. There's not a discernible difference between the two at this point and time.

If you followed the whole conversation his post was in reply to me when I was discussing rookie seasons, so his post should have been taken in such context. Otherwise, he's arguing something completely different from the actual argument that was taking place.

 

[JA]

He never said Kucherov as a rookie. He said Kucherov right now. Which he is equivocal now. Use whatever semantics you want. There's not a discernible difference between the two at this point and time.

I pointed out that Kucherov, over the last 84 games, has produced at a high rate than McDavid has over his past 84 games. Kucherov is also outproducing McDavid this season in per-game production. When one gauges McDavid's production relative to other players at the moment, he is actually quite far behind Crosby and a few points behind Kucherov. This information is for those who would have assumed that McDavid is outproducing everyone in the league right now.

I can not comment on what DoctrSteveBrule was trying to say, although he seems to have taken those numbers out of context or conflated two different discussions.

 

[daver]

Definitely not arguing McDavid is better to this point as Crosby was at the same point in his career because I don't think he has been. But I also think those raw numbers unfairly show a wider gap than reality. I'm not sure how to find the splits for those games played but its interesting that Pittsburgh has 495 PP opportunities in 2005-06 to Edmonton's 237 in 15-16. Would be interesting to compare their EV strength points over the split you mentioned (although I believe you should be looking at McDavid and Crosby's first 45 NHL games, and then their first 39 from their Sophomore year for a fair comparison, as I'm sure McDavid wasn't improving at hockey somehow in the time he was injured, the way that Sid many have been by gaining NHL experience from playing).

At this point, there really isn't a fair way to compare the two. I would suggest the best comparison is the first half of their sophomore seasons.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...007-01-04&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=points

Crosby is 1st in points, and way ahead in PPG over his peers.