Value of: Connor Brown @ 50% retained (1.75m AAV 1 yr)

[99ovr]

Connor Brown is a 55 point RW with phenomenal 2-way play and one of the best penalty killers in the league. He can fit on your 2nd line without looking out of place and play with skilled players, however is ideally a 3rd line RW on a championship team.

I don't see him being a long-term fit with the Sens so I can see him being traded at the draft or this off season. A player of his calibre at 1.75m for 1 year can fit well with a contending team that may be tight on cap (Vegas, Tampa, Toronto, etc...).

What would the value be? I can see it being a late 1st+2nd+conditional 3rd if re-signed or team makes it to the 3rd round, somewhat similar to the Pageau deadline deal in 2020.

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[WhereAreTheCookies]

Connor Brown is a 55 point RW with phenomenal 2-way play and one of the best penalty killers in the league. He can fit on your 2nd line without looking out of place and play with skilled players, however is ideally a 3rd line RW on a championship team.

He has literally never scored more than 43 points in a season.

 

[BlueBaron]

So you see Ottawa retaining money to add value in a trade?

Great idea in NHL 22 but doesn't work in the current Ottawa business model. This is a cost conscious team.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

He has literally never scored more than 43 points in a season.

Calling him a 55 point winger is disingenuous, but he has scored at a 50 pt pace in Ottawa and 2 of those 3 seasons were shortened through no fault of his own. His only major injury was getting hit in the face by a shot in warmup, other than that its just been nights off due to how he plays, i.e. things that won't keep him out of the playoffs.

He is a pretty reliable 45-50 pt pace guy, I have no doubt that will continue elsewhere, and his points are far from the whole story. Awesome player who deserves a 5m longterm deal.

So you see Ottawa retaining money to add value in a trade?

Great idea in NHL 22 but doesn't work in the current Ottawa business model. This is a cost conscious team.

Ottawa has retained salary twice since 2018 - one of which was significant money on a multi-year deal (would have been over $5m if Phaneuf was not bought out). They are tied for 25th in terms of times retained, and probably around 20th in terms of actual $s retained, so while they are clearly hesitant to do so, it's certainly not off the table when discussing a relatively minor retention.

 

[99ovr]

He has literally never scored more than 43 points in a season.

He's paced 50 points over the last 3 seasons and was pacing 60 for 3 quarters of this season but played with a wrist injury and was super cold the last quarter. 55 points is a projection but he has definitely at the very least been a 50 point player.

So you see Ottawa retaining money to add value in a trade?

Great idea in NHL 22 but doesn't work in the current Ottawa business model. This is a cost conscious team.

For sure but 1.75m for 1 year is much different than retaining 3m for 3 years.

 

[CupHolders]

Pageau is better and plays a far more important position. Also the Isles valued what Pageau offers more than most teams.

With that said, if Ottawa also takes back a toxic contract, then something close to that value isn’t so far fetched.

Maybe to Calgary for Monahan as an example?

 

[BlueBaron]

He's paced 50 points over the last 3 seasons and was pacing 60 for 3 quarters of this season but played with a wrist injury and was super cold the last quarter. 55 points is a projection but he has definitely at the very least been a 50 point player.


For sure but 1.75m for 1 year is much different than retaining 3m for 3 years.

You are right. I just can't think of them ever retaining. if you can site one example I'll gladly concede the point.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

This is an excellent sell job.

"55 point player"

He has never scored 55 points, and even if you want to play the pro-rate game, he's averaged 50pts per season in Otttawa.

"Phenomenal 2-way play"

No evidence of this. Being a good pker does not equal being an excellent 2-way player. If Connor Brown is a phenomenal 2-way player, than so are 25-40% of the wingers in the game. Kind of devalues the word.

"I don't see him being a long-term fit with the Sens"

So after overselling his strengths, ignoring his weaknesses, you're going to hit us with "ya this guy is young and great but he's not a fit". If he's a 55pt player who is excellent on the PK and a great 2 way player...why would he not fit on a growing team lacking talent?

Kind of makes us all wonder, you know. Ottawa feels like an org that should be retaining these types of guys.

 

[edguy]

You are right. I just can't think of them ever retaining. if you can site one example I'll gladly concede the point.

Dion Phaneuf.

I dont think we retain on Brown, he is excellent value at his current contract already. He brings alot more than points to a team

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

You are right. I just can't think of them ever retaining. if you can site one example I'll gladly concede the point.

Nick Paul on March 20th, 2022 - 44.5% retention
Vladeslav Namestnikov on October 7th 2019 - 18.8% retention
Tommy Wingels on January 24th 2017 - 30% retained
Ales Hemsky on March 5th 2014 - 50% retained

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

This is an excellent sell job.

"55 point player"

He has never scored 55 points, and even if you want to play the pro-rate game, he's averaged 50pts per season in Otttawa.

"Phenomenal 2-way play"

No evidence of this. Being a good pker does not equal being an excellent 2-way player. If Connor Brown is a phenomenal 2-way player, than so are 25-40% of the wingers in the game. Kind of devalues the word.

"I don't see him being a long-term fit with the Sens"

So after overselling his strengths, ignoring his weaknesses, you're going to hit us with "ya this guy is young and great but he's not a fit". If he's a 55pt player who is excellent on the PK and a great 2 way player...why would he not fit on a growing team lacking talent?

Kind of makes us all wonder, you know. Ottawa feels like an org that should be retaining these types of guys.

Brown is absolutely an excellent 2-way player.

Brown is a key player and will only be dealt if we bring in a legit top 6 offensive scoring threat/PP threat. If we bring in a 6-8m player, well, something has gotta give for a longterm extension and Brown will hold value as a rental that could help us going forward. As great as he is, he is obviously not a priority over retaining Stutzle, Norris, Sanderson, etc., longterm. Kinda simple, no? Brown on a steal of a contract for 1 year holds a lot more value to Toronto, Tampa, etc, than it does to Ottawa. Its why teams pay big value for players who might not be on their team for more than 20 games.

That is another thing to consider - Brown has been pretty much a pure ES + PK player until this past season. His first year in Ottawa, he hit 40 ES+PP points in 71 games. This past year, he hit 30 in 64 games, and the year before he hit 31 in 56 games. So even if you exclude PP, he has scored at an ~45pt pace. In terms of raw points (i.e. not pace), he is tied for 85th in the league since coming to Ottawa.

Nick Paul on March 20th, 2022 - 44.5% retention
Vladeslav Namestnikov on October 7th 2019 - 18.8% retention
Tommy Wingels on January 24th 2017 - 30% retained
Ales Hemsky on March 5th 2014 - 50% retained

I am pretty sure those last three were retention coming into Ottawa, not out. But They did retain 1.75m x 3.25yrs on Phaneuf in 2018.

 

[bert]

So you see Ottawa retaining money to add value in a trade?

Great idea in NHL 22 but doesn't work in the current Ottawa business model. This is a cost conscious team.

They are also trying to win and make the playoffs. As a poster on the Ottawa Senators board for the most part collectively its incredibly out of touch with reality right now.

Couldn't be a worse time to sell a winger right now. It's a buyers market there are a ton of UFA'S coming this summer and half the teams are pressed against the cap.

This is an excellent sell job.

"55 point player"

He has never scored 55 points, and even if you want to play the pro-rate game, he's averaged 50pts per season in Otttawa.

"Phenomenal 2-way play"

No evidence of this. Being a good pker does not equal being an excellent 2-way player. If Connor Brown is a phenomenal 2-way player, than so are 25-40% of the wingers in the game. Kind of devalues the word.

"I don't see him being a long-term fit with the Sens"

So after overselling his strengths, ignoring his weaknesses, you're going to hit us with "ya this guy is young and great but he's not a fit". If he's a 55pt player who is excellent on the PK and a great 2 way player...why would he not fit on a growing team lacking talent?

Kind of makes us all wonder, you know. Ottawa feels like an org that should be retaining these types of guys.

Garbage post. He is an unreal two way player. No one needs to 'sell' it you just don't have to be hockey illiterate to see it.

 

[Pinto Bean]

As we've seen in the playoffs so far, Nick Paul has been a massive addition for TBL and has even occasionally led the team in ice-time for forwards. I'm confident Connor Brown would have a similar effect as Nick Paul except he has shown to be more offensively productive than Paul historically.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

They are also trying to win and make the playoffs. As a poster on the Ottawa Senators board for the most part collectively its incredibly out of touch with reality right now.

Couldn't be a worse time to sell a winger right now. It's a buyers market there are a ton of UFA'S coming this summer and half the teams are pressed against the cap.


Garbage post. He is an unreal two way player. No one needs to 'sell' it you just don't have to be hockey illiterate to see it.

I think Brown would hold a ton of appeal, especially with retention. Teams know he is the type you win with. And how many guys of his caliber can be added a) at a cheap salary or b) short-term? Tyler Bertuzzi is one... maybe Craig Smith... beyond that I don't see many guys who will fill a similar market need. Tampa and Colorado likely aren't gonna be in on Tarasenko, for example, but they may be extremely interested in a guy like Brown.

I agree, Ottawa cannot trade Brown just to get assets. But if we bring in a big ticket winger, and Brown is asking for a Hyman-like deal, and we can swing a deal similar to the Paul one... I think its something that we need to consider.

 

[bert]

I think Brown would hold a ton of appeal, especially with retention. Teams know he is the type you win with. And how many guys of his caliber can be added a) at a cheap salary or b) short-term? Tyler Bertuzzi is one... maybe Craig Smith... beyond that I don't see many guys who will fill a similar market need. Tampa and Colorado likely aren't gonna be in on Tarasenko, for example, but they may be extremely interested in a guy like Brown.

I agree, Ottawa cannot trade Brown just to get assets. But if we bring in a big ticket winger, and Brown is asking for a Hyman-like deal, and we can swing a deal similar to the Paul one... I think its something that we need to consider.

Tkachuk and Chabot are asking the team to add, they aren't trading one of the teams best players and only veterans. This isn't NHL 22

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Tkachuk and Chabot are asking the team to add, they aren't trading one of the teams best players and only veterans. This isn't NHL 22

Man, I know. I've said that in literally every post in which I've discussed Brown.

I will throw out a completely unrealistic name so let's gloss over that, but if we bring in F. Forsberg at 7yrs x 10m, re-sign Norris at 7.5m, re-sign Formenton at 2.5-3.5m, and then trade C. Brown for Brock McGinn and a 2nd... have we not added? I'm not talking about jettisoning Brown, I am talking about making a huge upgrade at top 6 wing and then a medium-sized downgrade at middle 6 wing in order to pay for that top 6 upgrade... while also adding some cost security long-term at that middle 6 role. If we are gonna pay our big dogs and add legit top 6ers, or even another top liner, we can't give Brown a Hyman-like contract.

Trading Brown shouldn't be the plan, but acting as though its completely off the table is just way too dogmatic. We literally just went through this with Paul and ended up making a trade that worked pretty well for us in the immediate term, and looks to have us as well set-up in the longterm.

 

[bert]

Man, I know. I've said that in literally every post in which I've discussed Brown.

I will throw out a completely unrealistic name so let's gloss over that, but if we bring in F. Forsberg at 7yrs x 10m, re-sign Norris at 7.5m, re-sign Formenton at 2.5-3.5m, and then trade C. Brown for Brock McGinn and a 2nd... have we not added? I'm not talking about jettisoning Brown, I am talking about making a huge upgrade at top 6 wing and then a medium-sized downgrade at middle 6 wing in order to pay for that top 6 upgrade... while also adding some cost security long-term at that middle 6 role. If we are gonna pay our big dogs and add legit top 6ers, or even another top liner, we can't give Brown a Hyman-like contract.

Trading Brown shouldn't be the plan, but acting as though its completely off the table is just way too dogmatic. We literally just went through this with Paul and ended up making a trade that worked pretty well for us in the immediate term, and looks to have us as well set-up in the longterm.

It's simply not how hockey teams are run. In premise it's not a bad concept.. But Ottawa has good chemistry and a good room. Small adds and building through the core is how to build a winner not that way. It's not happening. The sens need to keep building what they have and add a UFA winger. Rocking the boat with more turnover isn't going to work. There are a ton of UFA's on the market and only so many landing spots.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

It's simply not how hockey teams are run. In premise it's not a bad concept.. But Ottawa has good chemistry and a good room. Small adds and building through the core is how to build a winner not that way. It's not happening. The sens need to keep building what they have and add a UFA winger. Rocking the boat with more turnover isn't going to work. There are a ton of UFA's on the market and only so many landing spots.

The Sens did exactly that with Turris and Duchene. It turned out horribly, but it happened.

If Ottawa does the internal math and decides they can either a) add a UFA/trade winger or b) extend Brown, but not both, you don't think they will explore trading Brown? I absolutely agree, he won't be dealt for a futures. But he could absolutely be dealt in a trade that management thinks will give us a better chance to compete over the next 3 years.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I’d keep him.

 

[ATdaisuki]

Tkachuk and Chabot are asking the team to add, they aren't trading one of the teams best players and only veterans. This isn't NHL 22

I feel like this thread was made with the understanding that we add at least one, preferably two other better wingers and have Joseph take his spot on the third line. I don't think the idea is "trade Brown for picks, call it an offseason".

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I feel like this thread was made with the understanding that we add at least one, preferably two other better wingers and have Joseph take his spot on the third line. I don't think the idea is "trade Brown for picks, call it an offseason".

Yeah, in an ideal world we add Giroux on a team-friendly deal, jettison Murray, Zaitsev and MDZ, re-sign Norris, Formenton and Joseph for a combined total under $12m, extend Brown at 5yrs x 4.5m & Zub at 5yrs x 5m... but that entails a whole lot going right for us.

 

[McSuper]

Connor Brown is a 55 point RW with phenomenal 2-way play and one of the best penalty killers in the league. He can fit on your 2nd line without looking out of place and play with skilled players, however is ideally a 3rd line RW on a championship team.

I don't see him being a long-term fit with the Sens so I can see him being traded at the draft or this off season. A player of his calibre at 1.75m for 1 year can fit well with a contending team that may be tight on cap (Vegas, Tampa, Toronto, etc...).

What would the value be? I can see it being a late 1st+2nd+conditional 3rd if re-signed or team makes it to the 3rd round, somewhat similar to the Pageau deadline deal in 2020.

Kassian and Edmonton 1st +

 

[99ovr]

Man, I know. I've said that in literally every post in which I've discussed Brown.

I will throw out a completely unrealistic name so let's gloss over that, but if we bring in F. Forsberg at 7yrs x 10m, re-sign Norris at 7.5m, re-sign Formenton at 2.5-3.5m, and then trade C. Brown for Brock McGinn and a 2nd... have we not added? I'm not talking about jettisoning Brown, I am talking about making a huge upgrade at top 6 wing and then a medium-sized downgrade at middle 6 wing in order to pay for that top 6 upgrade... while also adding some cost security long-term at that middle 6 role. If we are gonna pay our big dogs and add legit top 6ers, or even another top liner, we can't give Brown a Hyman-like contract.

Trading Brown shouldn't be the plan, but acting as though its completely off the table is just way too dogmatic. We literally just went through this with Paul and ended up making a trade that worked pretty well for us in the immediate term, and looks to have us as well set-up in the longterm.

This is exactly what my thought process is too, I probably should've posted it in the OP for better context. We only trade C.Brown if we bring in a stud LW (Dubois, Fiala, etc...) that will cost 8m+ and possibly add another RW to take up his spot whether it's Giroux or someone who can competently play middle 6.

We need some cap space in the next 1-2 years for Stutzle, Sanderson and not to mention Norris who needs a contract now. C.Brown will want Hyman money which isn't necessarily unreasonable but does not fit Ottawa's plan in needing a bonafide elite top 6 winger now and needing space to resign the young core.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Nylander + holl
For
7th overall + brown

Sens get a top line winger and a bottom pair rd.
Leafs get 7th overall and a top 9 winger and also free up cap to fill other needs.

 

[Big Muddy]

This is an excellent sell job.

"55 point player"

He has never scored 55 points, and even if you want to play the pro-rate game, he's averaged 50pts per season in Otttawa.

"Phenomenal 2-way play"

No evidence of this. Being a good pker does not equal being an excellent 2-way player. If Connor Brown is a phenomenal 2-way player, than so are 25-40% of the wingers in the game. Kind of devalues the word.

"I don't see him being a long-term fit with the Sens"

So after overselling his strengths, ignoring his weaknesses, you're going to hit us with "ya this guy is young and great but he's not a fit". If he's a 55pt player who is excellent on the PK and a great 2 way player...why would he not fit on a growing team lacking talent?

Kind of makes us all wonder, you know. Ottawa feels like an org that should be retaining these types of guys.

Is the word "phenomenal" tripping you up? Switch it to very good, and its 100% accurate. You're talking out your butt.