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Blue Jays Discussion: Confirmed: Vladimir Guerrero Jr is still good at baseball

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Morgs said:
I mean barstool lol, but that's dramatic as f***. K% down, BB% down a touch, hitting the ball softer than usual, and one of the worst BABIP's in baseball. The profile is a bit concerning because of the contract, but even then a .191 BABIP isn't going to keep up.

Its a lot more likely 2019 and 2021 are his peak and he's more similar to the average hitter he was the rest of his career than he completely forgot how to hit.
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~25m a year to be a ~100 wRC+ is devastating though unless you're an elite defender at a premium position. Even during his career years his xStats don't jump off the charts (like Bo for instance), but during his other years they're, well, below average at best. Jays took the gamble and it paid off in spades but Semien's new contract was always going to be horrid.
 
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Eyedea said:
~25m a year to be a ~100 wRC+ is devastating though unless you're an elite defender at a premium position. Even during his career years his xStats don't jump off the charts (like Bo for instance), but during his other years they're, well, below average at best. Jays took the gamble and it paid off in spades but Semien's new contract was always going to be horrid.
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Yeah I never would have done that much, but I just more think the headline was dramatic. Take contract out of it and he's a fine player who's had a horrid start. He's overpaid by a bunch though unless he does what he did last year every year for basically the whole time.
 
What does Soto cost?

Orlevis and one of Otto Lopez or Groshans, Pearson, Biggio and cash?

I don't even know where it begins.
 
The biggest problem isn't even the prospect capital cost to acquire Soto. It's the eventual like $1.2 billion required to sign Soto, Vladdy and Bo all long term.. Basically guarantees one of those 3 would be gone, I.e. Bo is gone. Unless they actually go crazy and spend over the tax.
 
Sabre the Win said:
What does Soto cost?

Orlevis and one of Otto Lopez or Groshans, Pearson, Biggio and cash?

I don't even know where it begins.
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I have to think they would want prospects so Moreno, Martinez, Groshans, Tideman is a nice offer. On baseball trade values it's still not enough but I'd do it from the Jays POV.
 
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Interesting in what the Jays do, I kind of don't want to get rid of the farm for 2 and a half years of Soto and if we sign Soto and Vladdy then Bo and others is gone.
 
blogs.fangraphs.com

Which Young Players Should Be Next To Sign Long-Term Deals?

Picking the top long-term extension candidates around the league, with the help of ZiPS.
blogs.fangraphs.com blogs.fangraphs.com

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays: Eight years, $174 million​

Vladito is making nearly $8 million this year and not in a family hurting for financial resources, so he has a reasonable risk profile to try to wait out free agency and grab a monster deal then. But that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays shouldn’t at least try; it will be a shame if his stay in Toronto is already half over.

While Guerrero’s offensive numbers have come back down since last year’s Triple Crown run, the disappearance of run scoring around the league makes the drop look far more significant than it actually is. In rest-of-career value, ZiPS has him fourth in baseball among hitters, and none of the top three are gettable.


ZiPS Projection – Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
YearBAOBPSLGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBOPS+DRWAR
2023.298.385.5335801051733023410076102315204.4
2024.295.386.532562103166302339778102315204.1
2025.292.385.5305591021633023396801043151-14.0
2026.290.387.5325511021603023395821043152-14.0
2027.287.386.522536991542923191811033150-13.7
2028.285.384.51352295149282298679963147-13.4
2029.282.380.50250490142262278175913143-23.0
2030.278.376.49048683135242257671863139-22.6
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Where do i sign?
 
Soto and Strasburg for Ryu, Orelvis, Kirk and Van Eyk is even based on Baseball Trade Values.

Obviously taking Strasburg is basically lighting money on fire but lets live a little and light some money on fire
 
Suntouchable13 said:
What happened to Vladdy's power? It's weird, he is on a 14 game hit streak but very little damage.
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I think it is mostly what someone said above, he is chasing pitches as he isn't getting tons of quality pitches to hit. But he's also missed a lot of hittable pitches.

His launch angle in the last 2 months is way down, back to basically what it was in 2020 almost where he just pounds everything into the dirt. I'd need someone to analyze if those are pitches he shouldn't swing at or if they're bad swings. Last night for example, 1st inning, Springer gets on and he chases a pitch away and GIDP. Sure, he could try to just go the other way with it, but he's better off not swinging at it at all.
 
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I think he just needs to stay patient and force pitchers to attack him a bit more or take his walks and let the rest of the lineup eat. Probably forcing it since no one is hitting so everyone wants to be the hero.
 
SDig14 said:
Sure, he could try to just go the other way with it, but he's better off not swinging at it at all.
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This is what I've noticed the most.

1. When he's best-hitter-on-the-planet Vlad, he lays off pitches off the outside corner and either walks or forces pitchers into the zone and destroys them.
2. When he's human-but-still-amazing Vlad, he swings and slaps them the other way for base hits (like his hit last night).
3. When he's struggling, he tries to put those pitches into the upper deck and mostly just rolls over on them and ground out.

I think we've been seeing more of that middle one recently after a stretch of #3, which is progress at least.

I also wonder if his hand isn't quite 100% after being stepped on earlier.
 
Based on pitch tracking his launch angle is only drastically different when hitting offspeed pitches. Fastballs and breaking balls remain fairly similar compared to last season but his -11 against offspeed pitches brings his overall numbers down. He's still an elite level hitter but he's running into the same problem as Soto where pitchers just aren't giving him anything to put in the air.

Also Vladdy is seeing the fewest amount of fastballs on the team (and one of the lowest percentages in baseball) through the month of May.
 
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The Nemesis said:
The Yankees cut their 2019 3rd round draft pick, Nova Scotia born Jake Sanford, after they discovered he was stealing teammates' equipment to sell to collectors and defrauding other buyers by selling equipment that he then failed to deliver.

www.sportingnews.com

Yankees cut prospect Jake Sanford after accusations he stole from teammates, scammed fans | Sporting News

The Yankees abruptly released the minor league outfielder. Now we know why.
www.sportingnews.com www.sportingnews.com
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I hope that the Jays Front Office does a little quiet digging in the background to see if this kid is worth giving a second chance to. On the one hand, there may be red flags that say no. On the other, he could just be a struggling minor leaguer that needs more support.
 
The Nemesis said:
The Yankees cut their 2019 3rd round draft pick, Nova Scotia born Jake Sanford, after they discovered he was stealing teammates' equipment to sell to collectors and defrauding other buyers by selling equipment that he then failed to deliver.

www.sportingnews.com

Yankees cut prospect Jake Sanford after accusations he stole from teammates, scammed fans | Sporting News

The Yankees abruptly released the minor league outfielder. Now we know why.
www.sportingnews.com www.sportingnews.com
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He sounds nice
 
Tanner Morris is starting to look like a real prospect.

3rd best OBP, 7th best OPS in AA league, More walks than strikeouts.
 
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Bjindaho said:
I hope that the Jays Front Office does a little quiet digging in the background to see if this kid is worth giving a second chance to. On the one hand, there may be red flags that say no. On the other, he could just be a struggling minor leaguer that needs more support.
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Theft, the sale of illegally acquired goods, and fraud are pretty big red flags when taken in concert.

Also he appears to be a fringe prospect at best. Fangraphs has him on their honorable mentions/unranked other guys lists for the last two years, both times calling him a lefty power bat who's quite stiff at the plate while posting good but not outstanding numbers. He's also already a LF in A-ball, which means his defensive value is probably marginal at best. The last FV ranking they had for him was 35+.

That's not a prospect that's worth the headache/inquisition that would come with signing him after doing what he did.
 
The Nemesis said:
Theft, the sale of illegally acquired goods, and fraud are pretty big red flags when taken in concert.

Also he appears to be a fringe prospect at best. Fangraphs has him on their honorable mentions/unranked other guys lists for the last two years, both times calling him a lefty power bat who's quite stiff at the plate while posting good but not outstanding numbers. He's also already a LF in A-ball, which means his defensive value is probably marginal at best. The last FV ranking they had for him was 35+.

That's not a prospect that's worth the headache/inquisition that would come with signing him after doing what he did.
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Let me ask you this: are all position players in MLB right now were either catchers, center fielders, or shortstops in high school/college/low minor leagues? All relievers were at one point starters? Like, do you draft a potential great closer from college? Or a great 1st baseman from high school? Or a great left fielder? Carlos Delgado was a catcher in the minors, so was Josh Donaldson. Matt Champan was a SS. If you’re already a 1st baseman in A ball, your chances of being a major leaguer are quite low?
 
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